What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus
The coronavirus — officially known as COVID-19 — has infected more than 75,000 people and killed more than 2,000 since it was first identified in Wuhan, China, in late December. Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) experts Karen Eggleston and David Relman joined host Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast to discuss what you should know about the virus, its impact on China and the world, and whether there is any truth to the rumors about its origins.
What is COVID-19?
COVID-19 comes from the same family as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a respiratory illness first identified in southern China in 2003 that killed more than 700 people; and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which emerged in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Scientists still aren’t sure how humans first became infected with COVID-19, but suspect that the virus arose from bats, Relman said.
“That’s the best guess, simply because all of the most closely related viruses we know of in the world are ‘bat viruses,’” said Relman, who is a senior fellow at FSI and an expert on emerging infectious diseases.
Where Did the Virus Come From?
While many of the first cases of COVID-19 have been linked to the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, recent data suggests that about half of the earliest cases appear to have no obvious connection to the market.
“Could they have been indirectly connected somehow, or could they too have been exposed through the movement of animals that ended up in the market? These are things that are unknown,” Relman said.
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FSI Email AlertsMeanwhile, there has been speculation that the virus did not originate at the market and was instead created in a laboratory. Relman acknowledged that while he thinks it’s possible that scientists in China could have been studying the virus and let it out by mistake, he doesn’t think that’s what happened in this case.
Why Has COVID-19 Spread So Quickly?
The rapid transmission of the virus likely has to do with how it interacts with the human host. Most likely, it is growing to large numbers in the upper parts of the respiratory tract, and is therefore primed to be transmitted more easily, Relman noted.
“One of the biggest questions is whether people are contagious before they have symptoms,” Relman said. “And that is perhaps the most critical question as to whether this is going to be contained in the very near term or not.”
What’s Been the Effect on China?
China was much better prepared for this epidemic than it was 17 years ago for SARS, said Eggleston, who is also a senior fellow at FSI and director of the Stanford Asia Health Policy Program. Still, China’s economy and connectivity within the global economy mean that this time around, it’s even more of a crisis, Eggleston said.
Many of the people who have died from the virus were healthcare workers who weren’t properly protected, due to a combination of strained resources and a shortage of testing kits and protective gear, she added.
How Damaging is COVID-19 Going to Be?
If COVID-19 can be transmitted before people are exhibiting symptoms, it’s much more likely that the virus will spread broadly within China and be passed on to more people in other countries, said Eggleston.
Relman predicted that the number of new cases of the virus will decline over the next few months into the summer, but that it will continue to pop up in certain parts — or “hotspots” — around the world.
“We’re probably looking at a future that now includes the persistence of this virus periodically, especially in winters for the next several years,” he warned.
Michael A. McFaul, PhD
Karen Eggleston, PhD
FSI Senior Fellows Karen Eggleston and David Relman joined host Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast to discuss all things COVID-19 — also known as the coronavirus.
Kate Starbird is an Associate Professor in the Department of Human Centered Design & Engineering (HCDE) and Director of the Emerging Capacities of Mass Participation (emCOMP) Laboratory. She is also adjunct faculty in the Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering and the Information School and a data science fellow at the eScience Institute. 
Jevin West is an Associate Professor in the Information School at the University of Washington. He is the co-founder of the DataLab and the new Center for an Informed Public at UW. He holds an Adjunct Faculty position in the Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering and Data Science Fellow at the eScience Institute. His research and teaching focus on misinformation in and about science. He develops methods for mining the scientific literature in order to study the origins of disciplines, the social and economic biases that drive these disciplines, and the impact the current publication system has on the health of science. 
Kelly Born is the Executive Director of Stanford’s Cyber Policy Center, where she collaborates with the center’s program leaders to pioneer new lines of research, policy-oriented curriculum, policy workshops and executive education. Prior to joining Stanford, she helped to launch and lead The Madison Initiative at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, one of the largest philanthropic undertakings working to reduce polarization and improve U.S. democracy. There, she designed and implemented strategies focused on money in politics, electoral reform, civic engagement and digital disinformation. Kelly earned a master’s degree in international policy from Stanford University.
