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- This event is jointly sponsored by the China Program and the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) -

 

Since September 2012, frictions between Beijing and Tokyo over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea have become unprecedentedly unstable. Both China's military and paramilitary activity in the surrounding waters and airspace and Japan's fighter jet scrambles have reached all­-time highs. Recent public opinion polls in both countries record mutual antipathy at the highest level since leaders normalized bilateral diplomatic ties in the 1970s.

Especially under these volatile conditions, risk has surged. Even an accident stemming from a low­-level encounter could quickly escalate into a major crisis between the world's second­- and third­-largest economies (and would entrap the first-largest: the United States). This seminar examines the strengths and weaknesses of China's and Japan's crisis management mechanisms and the implications of nascent national security councils (established in late 2013) in both countries for crisis (in)stability in the East China Sea. It will also examine the prospects for, and obstacles to, more effective crisis management.

Beyond its contemporary policy relevance, the discussion will also engage issues with important implications for Chinese and Japanese foreign policy decision­making, political reforms, civil­ military relations, and U.S. relations with both countries.

 

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Adam P. LIFF is Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations in Indiana University’s new School of Global and International Studies (SGIS/EALC Dept). At SGIS, Adam is also the founding director of the “East Asia and the World” speaker series, faculty affiliate at the Center on American and Global Security, and senior associate at the China Policy Research Institute. He holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in Politics from Princeton University, and a B.A. from Stanford University. Since 2014, Adam has been an associate-in-research at Harvard University’s Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies and Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. His research website is www.adampliff.com.

Professor Liff’s research and teaching focus on international relations and security studies—with a particular emphasis on contemporary security affairs in the Asia-Pacific region; the foreign relations of Japan and China; U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific (esp. U.S. security alliances); the continuing evolution of Japan’s postwar security policy profile; and the rise of China and its impact on its region and the world. His scholarship has been published or is forthcoming in The China Quarterly, International Security, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Security Studies, and The Washington Quarterly, and has been cited widely in global media, including in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, and The Economist. Other recent publications include several book chapters in edited volumes and articles in policy journals and online, including in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and The National Interest.

Professor Liff’s past academic research affiliations include the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program, the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the University of Virginia's Miller Center, the University of Tokyo's Institute of Social Science, Peking University's School of International Studies, the Stanford Center at PKU, and the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Law and Politics.

Adam P. Liff Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations, Indiana University's new School of Global and International Studies
Seminars
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American innovation has helped power economic growth and rising living standards at home and abroad for nearly two centuries.  Today, many government officials, corporate executives, and researchers worry that the American innovation machine is losing its dynamism.  Others worry that the United States is about to be overtaken by rising Asian technological superpowers, like China, and that this will constrain the living standards of future generations of Americans.  Lee Branstetter draws upon the most recent data and economic scholarship to argue that neither fear is consistent with the evidence.  Instead, the evidence points to the emergence of an increasingly integrated global R&D system in which the emerging innovative strengths of nations like China reinforce American technological progress and productivity growth far more than they threaten it.  Branstetter concludes with a set of policy recommendations that can help ensure robust technological progress and economic growth in the 21st century.       
 

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Lee Branstetter is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, and he is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC.  From 2011-2012, he served as the senior economist for international trade and investment on the staff of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Lee Branstetter Professor, Economics and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Seminars
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Although Japan had largely resolved the problem of banks’ non-performing loans and firms’ damaged balance sheets by the early 2000s, productivity growth hardly accelerated, resulting in what now are “two lost decades.” This presentation examines the underlying reasons of Japan’s low TFP growth from a long-term and structural perspective using an industry-level database and micro-level data. The data seem to show that, since the 1990s, some core characteristics of Japanese firms, such as tight customer-supplier relationships and the life-time employment system, have become obstacles to their TFP growth in an environment shaped by globalization and slow/negative growth in the working age population.

 

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Kyoji Fukao is Professor at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, as well as a Program Director and Faculty Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). Other positions include: Vice-Chairperson of the Working Party on Industry Analysis (WPIA), OECD; Member of the Executive Committee of the Asian Historical Economics Society (AHES); External Research Associate at the Centre on Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE), Warwick University. He has published widely on productivity, international economics, economic history, and related topics in journals such as the Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Income and Wealth, Explorations in Economic History, and Economica. In addition, he is the author of Japan’s Economy and the Two Lost Decades (Nikkei Publishing Inc., in Japanese) and, with Tsutomu Miyagawa, the editor of Productivity and Japan’s Economic Growth: Industry-Level and Firm-Level Studies Based on the JIP Database (University of Tokyo Press, in Japanese).

 

Kyoji Fukao Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
Seminars
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In this presentation Professor Takenaka will demonstrate how the House of Councillors has restrained Japanese prime ministers in formulating the Japanese security policy since the 1990s.

Japan has drastically changed its security policy since the 1990s. This is symbolized by the dispatch of the SDF to PKO in Cambodia in 1992 as well as deployment of the SDF in Iraq after the Iraq War in 2004. There have been three fundamental changes. First, Japan has become more positive in making use of SDF in UN peace keeping operations. Second, it has allowed the SDF to play more active roles in supporting US military operations worldwide. Third, it has decided to permit the exercise of the rights of collective defense, which had been completely restricted, under some conditions.

Such changes have gathered much academic attention. Many have pointed to reforms of political institutions from the 1990s as important factors in bringing shifts in security policy. They argue that reforms have provided Japanese prime ministers with enough political clout to make more profound changes in security policy.

Such arguments contribute greatly to enhancing understanding of the process in which the Japanese security policy is formulated. Yet, it is necessary to take into account the role of the House of Councillors to obtain a full picture of security policy formulation process. This is because the House of Councillors has imposed constraints over prime ministers in designing security policy. By examining security policy formulation process since the 1990s until now from the legislation of PKO bill in 1992 to the most recent legislation of security related bills in 2015, I show how prime ministers often had to compromise the substance of several policies, giving up some of his original ideas. Further, prime ministers often had to become delayed in implementing various policies because of the second chamber.

 

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Harukata Takenaka is a professor of political science at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.  He specializes in comparative politics and international political economy, with a particular focus on Japanese political economy. His research interests include democracy in Japan, and Japan's political and economic stagnation since the 1990s. 

He received a B.A. from the Faculty of Law of the University of Tokyo and an M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University.  He is the author of Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan: Breakdown of a Hybrid Regime, (Stanford University Press, 2014), and Sangiin to ha [What is House of Councillors], (Chuokoron Shinsha, 2010).

Harukata Takenaka Professor, the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
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Caixin Media reports on REAP's research about the shockingly high school drop-out rate of China's rural students. To read the original article, click here.

Chen is among the millions of students in rural areas who quit school each year without completing high school. Although there are no official statistics, studies by various research institutions say one in three students in villages – some 3 million teenagers on average – quit school every year before earning a high school diploma.

Boys and girls in rural areas start leaving school at a much younger age than their peers in more developed regions. From 2007 to 2013, almost half the students in poor areas in the central and western parts of the country had left school by grade nine, a study published in December by the Rural Education Action Project (REAP), which involves the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Stanford University and several Chinese universities, found. The researchers, who studied 50,000 students, found something even more alarming: by grade 12, nearly two-thirds dropped out.

The 2010 census showed that 78 percent of the country's school-aged students lived in the countryside, and the research report said that "if dropout rates continue as they are today, increasing unemployment and widening inequality could hinder economic growth and stability on a national scale."

Nearly half of the dropouts REAP surveyed said they quit to find work so they could "broaden their horizons and enjoy new experiences." Another 30 per cent said they chose to leave because "everyone else is doing it."

Chen said that like many of his classmates he was bored in the classroom and did not see how his studies were helping his future.

"Some dropouts are pushed hard by teachers but they can't pass exams," said Hu Yongqiang, who left a school in rural Shaanxi when he was in grade nine. "So they run away."

Middle School Woes

Experts say rural junior middle schools – which cover the seventh to ninth years of school – are one of the biggest problems in the country's education system. Stark inequalities in the distribution of resources have led to this failure, said Wei Jiayu from the New Citizen Program, a non-profit group focusing on rural education.

The government spent an average of 900 yuan more each year on a student in an urban middle school than on a rural student, government data from 2013 show. A few rural junior middle schools with better teachers and facilities, like science labs and libraries, have higher university admission rates, but many others "are just a waste of time," Wei said.

A lack of qualified teachers in rural schools is one of the main turnoffs for students, an education official in the Qinba Mountains area of Shaanxi said. The REAP study found that teachers' qualifications were linked to their students' dropout rate. In schools where less than 30 percent of the teachers had a university degree, students dropped out at twice the rate compared to schools with more qualified staff.

Most dropouts are students labeled by teachers as poor performers, said Liu Chengbin, a professor of sociology at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in the central city of Wuhan. Many teachers tend to pay more attention to students with strong academic records the others, said Liu, because the amount of funding a school receives from the government is linked to exam scores.

"(Students' scores) are related to teachers' performance assessments and salaries as well," said a teacher from the Qinba Mountains area.

Some teachers even tried to persuade students who did poorly on tests to quit so average test scores would stay high, said Shi Yaojiang, a professor of education at Shaanxi Normal University in Xi'an.

And the problems continue into high school. Beijing spent more than 28,000 yuan per high school student in 2013, compared to nearly 6,900 yuan per student in the southwestern province of Guizhou and nearly 5,500 yuan in the poor central province of Henan, research by the education information portal eol.cn in 2015 found.

Left Out

Tens of millions of rural workers have moved to urban areas in recent decades, but the country's system of household registration, or hukou, makes it difficult for them to send their children to good schools in cities.

Migrants often have no choice but to leave their children in rural areas to be educated. A lack of parental supervision compounds many students' difficulties in rural schools, experts said.

Some 60 million children are left in China's villages to be raised by grandparents or relatives, official data show, and educators say this is contributing to problems keeping children in school. "(The high number of) dropouts is the result of long-term problems," said a high school teacher in the Qinba Mountains.

The REAP study also found that nearly three-quarters of rural children showed some signs of psychological trouble. The figure was just under 6 percent for students in cities.

Over 13 percent of children left in villages by parents quit school by their eighth year of school, researchers found, but only 8.6 percent of those who were raised by their parents in rural villages chose to drop out.

Researchers are concerned about the career prospects of those who have not completed their schooling. Scott Rozelle, a Stanford University professor who co-directed the study, said that as the country looks to shift from low-end manufacturing to services and value-added industries, the growing number of less-educated workers will be a burden on the economy.

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Nearly 100 health economists from across the United States signed a pledge urging U.S. presidential candidates to make chronic disease a policy priority. Karen Eggleston, a scholar of comparative healthcare systems and director of Stanford’s Asia Health Policy Program, is one of the signatories. 

The pledge calls upon the candidates to reset the national healthcare agenda to better address chronic disease, which causes seven out of 10 deaths in America and affects the economy through lost productivity and disability.

Read the pledge below.

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"What do I do about the chickens?"

When assistant professor of medicine Eran Bendavid began a study on livestock in African households to determine impact on childhood health, he'd already anticipated common field problems like poorly captured or intentionally misreported data, difficulty getting to work sites, or problems with training local volunteers.

But he'd never gotten that particular question from a fieldworker before. It didn't occur to him that participating families, in reporting their livestock holdings, would completely omit the chickens running around at their feet, thereby skewing the data.

"They didn't consider chickens to be livestock," recalled Bendavid. Along with Scott Rozelle, the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow at FSI, and associate professor of political science and FSI senior fellow Beatriz Magaloni, Bendavid spoke to a full house last week on lessons learned from fieldwork gone awry. The return engagement of FSI's popular seminar, "Everything that can go wrong in a field experiment” was introduced by Jesper Sørensen, executive director of Stanford Seed, and moderated by Katherine Casey, assistant professor of political economy at the GSB. The seminar is a product of FSI and Seed’s joint Global Development and Poverty (GDP) Initiative, which to date has awarded nearly $7 million in faculty research funding to promote research on poverty alleviation and economic development worldwide.

Rozelle, co-director of the Rural Education Action Program, spoke of the obstacles to accurate data gathering, especially in rural areas where record-keeping is inaccurate and participants' trust is low. Arriving in a Chinese village to carry out child nutrition studies, said Rozelle, "we found Grandma running out the back door with the baby." The researchers had worked with the local family planning council to find the names of children to study, but the families thought the authorities were coming to penalize them for violation of the one-child policy.

Cultural differences make for entertaining and illuminating (if frustrating) lessons, but Beatriz Magaloni, director of FSI's Program on Poverty and Governance at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law had a different story to tell. Over the course of three years, her GDP-funded work to investigate and reduce police violence in Brazil - a phenomenon resulting in more than 22,000 deaths since 2005 - has encountered obstacle after obstacle. Her work to pilot body-worn cameras on police in Rio has faced a change in police leadership, setting back cooperation; a yearlong struggle to decouple a study of TASER International’s body worn cameras from its electrical weapons in the same population; a work site initially lacking electricity to charge the cameras or Internet to view the feeds; and noncompliance among the officers. "It's discouraging at times," admitted Magaloni, who has finally gotten the cameras onto the officers' uniforms and must now experiment with ways to incentivize their use. "We are learning a lot about how institutional behavior becomes so entrenched and why it's so hard to change."

Experimentation is a powerful tool to understand cause and effect, said Casey, but a tool only works if it's implemented properly. Learning from failure makes for an interesting panel discussion. The speakers' hope is that it also makes for better research in the future.

The Global Development and Poverty Initiative is a University-wide initiative of the Stanford Institute for Innovation in Developing Economies (Seed) in partnership with the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI). GDP was established in 2013 to stimulate transformative research ideas and new approaches to economic development and poverty alleviation worldwide. GDP supports groundbreaking research at the intersection of traditional academic disciplines and practical application. GDP uses a venture-funding model to pursue compelling interdisciplinary research on the causes and consequences of global poverty. Initial funding allows GDP awardees to conduct high-quality research in developing countries where there is a lack of data and infrastructure.

 

 

 

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Abstract:

A growing body of research suggests that authoritarian regimes are responsive to societal actors, but we know little about the sources and limitations of authoritarian responsiveness because of the challenges of measurement and causal identification. This seminar will focus on the results of two new studies---a survey experiment among 1,377 provincial and city-level leaders in China and an online field experiment among 2,103 Chinese counties---to examine factors that influence officials’ incentives to respond to citizens in the absence of electoral competition. These studies show that the threat of collective action causes county governments to be considerably more responsive, and to be more publicly responsive. However, the manifestation of collective action and social contention decreases officials' willingness to be receptive to societal input. Together these results demonstrate that bottom-up societal pressure is a possible source of authoritarian responsiveness, but one with substantial restrictions.

 

Speaker Bio:

 
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Jennifer Pan is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Communication and Assistant Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science at Stanford University. Her research focuses on the strategies authoritarian regimes employ to perpetuate their rule, including censorship, redistribution, and responsiveness, and how technology facilitates and hinders these strategies. Her work focuses primarily on China, and uses computational and experimental methods to measure and examine different components of these strategies.
Jennifer Pan Assistant Professor in the Department of Communication and Assistant Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science at Stanford University
Seminars
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The New York Times has described The Divine Grace of Islam Nusantara as “a 90-minute film that amounts to a relentless, religious repudiation of the [self-styled] Islamic State and the opening salvo in a global campaign by the world’s largest Muslim group [Nahdlatul Ulama] to challenge [IS’s] ideology head-on.” The film documents the enthusiasm with which Indonesian Muslims have commemorated the historic role of the 15th-16th century Walisongo (“Nine Saints”) movement—a movement that precipitated the development in the East Indies (now Indonesia) of a great Islamic civilization rooted in the principle of universal love and compassion (rahmah).

The film and a panel discussion the following day will unpack a perspective that has been historically central to Muslim cultures stretching from North Africa to Southeast Asia. The essence and mission of Islam Nusantara is to build civilization, not to destroy it. Yahya Staquf has described the film as an invitation to Muslims everywhere to reject radicalism and theological straight-jackets and stand up for their own cultural adaptation of Islam.

Kyai Haji Yahya Cholil Staquf is a leader of what is widely regarded as the largest Muslim organization in the world. Located in Indonesia, Nahdlatul Ulama adheres to the traditions of Sunni Islam. Yahya has primary responsibility for the expansion of NU’s activities to include North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Earlier positions included service as spokesperson for Indonesia’s 1999-2001 president Abdurrahman Wahid, the country’s first democratically elected head of state.

C. Holland Taylor’s leadership of the LibForAll Foundation dates from its co-founding in 2003 by Taylor and former Indonesian president Wahid. The Wall Street Journal has called LibForAll “a model of what a competent public diplomacy effort in the Muslim world should look like.” An expert on Islam and Islamization in Southeast Asia, Taylor has lived, studied, and worked in Muslim societies from Iran to Indonesia. He was educated at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Princeton University.

Note:  Although the panel will reference the film, the panelists will range beyond the film to present and discuss the role and relevance of the concept of Islam Nusantara in Indonesia and the larger Muslim world. Viewing the film is thus not a prerequisite to understanding the panel.

Film screening and brief discussion:  Wednesday, April 6, 2016 (screening: 4:00 – 5:30 pm; discussion: 5:30 – 6:00 pm)

RSVP: http://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/southeastasia/events/registration/220800

Philippines Conference Room

Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central

616 Serra Street, Stanford University

 

Panel:  Thursday, April 7, 2016, noon – 1:30 pm

RSVP:  http://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/southeastasia/events/registration/220799

Philippines Conference Room

Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central

616 Serra Street, Stanford University

Free and open to the public

Lunch will be served.

This event is co-sponsored by the Southeast Asia Program, the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies and the Department of Religious Studies.

Yahya Cholil Staquf Secretary General, Supreme Council, Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia
C. Holland Taylor Chairman and CEO, LibForAll Foundation
Moderated by Donald K. Emmerson Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein APARC Stanford University
Film Screenings
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thedivinegod

The New York Times has described The Divine Grace of Islam Nusantara as “a 90-minute film that amounts to a relentless, religious repudiation of the [self-styled] Islamic State and the opening salvo in a global campaign by the world’s largest Muslim group [Nahdlatul Ulama] to challenge [IS’s] ideology head-on.” The film documents the enthusiasm with which Indonesian Muslims have commemorated the historic role of the 15th-16th century Walisongo (“Nine Saints”) movement—a movement that precipitated the development in the East Indies (now Indonesia) of a great Islamic civilization rooted in the principle of universal love and compassion (rahmah).

The film and a panel discussion the following day will unpack a perspective that has been historically central to Muslim cultures stretching from North Africa to Southeast Asia. The essence and mission of Islam Nusantara is to build civilization, not to destroy it. Yahya Staquf has described the film as an invitation to Muslims everywhere to reject radicalism and theological straight-jackets and stand up for their own cultural adaptation of Islam.

Kyai Haji Yahya Cholil Staquf is a leader of what is widely regarded as the largest Muslim organization in the world. Located in Indonesia, Nahdlatul Ulama adheres to the traditions of Sunni Islam. Yahya has primary responsibility for the expansion of NU’s activities to include North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Earlier positions included service as spokesperson for Indonesia’s 1999-2001 president Abdurrahman Wahid, the country’s first democratically elected head of state.

C. Holland Taylor’s leadership of the LibForAll Foundation dates from its co-founding in 2003 by Taylor and former Indonesian president Wahid. The Wall Street Journal has called LibForAll “a model of what a competent public diplomacy effort in the Muslim world should look like.” An expert on Islam and Islamization in Southeast Asia, Taylor has lived, studied, and worked in Muslim societies from Iran to Indonesia. He was educated at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Princeton University.

Note:  Although the panel will reference the film, the panelists will range beyond the film to present and discuss the role and relevance of the concept of Islam Nusantara in Indonesia and the larger Muslim world. Viewing the film is thus not a prerequisite to understanding the panel.

Film screening and brief discussion:  Wednesday, April 6, 2016 (screening: 4:00 – 5:30 pm; discussion: 5:30 – 6:00 pm)

RSVP: http://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/southeastasia/events/registration/220800

Philippines Conference Room

Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central

616 Serra Street, Stanford University

 

Panel:  Thursday, April 7, 2016, noon – 1:30 pm

RSVP: http://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/southeastasia/events/registration/220799

Philippines Conference Room

Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central

616 Serra Street, Stanford University

Free and open to the public

This event is co-sponsored by the Southeast Asia Program, the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies and the Department of Religious Studies.

Yahya Cholil Staquf Secretary General, Supreme Council, Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia
C. Holland Taylor Chairman and CEO, LibForAll Foundation
Moderated by Donald K. Emmerson Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein APARC Stanford University
Panel Discussions
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