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This brief is part of the Democracy Action Lab's "The Case for Democracy" series, which curates academic scholarship on democracy’s impacts across various domains of governance and development. Drawing from an exhaustive review of the literature, this analysis presents selected works that encompass significant findings and illustrate how the academic conversation has unfolded.

Democracies rarely, if ever, engage in war with one another. The resulting democratic peace theory has been a catalyst for investments in democracy promotion as a means of securing peace. Yet, the conclusion that democracy, and not alternative factors, is the main underlying driver of peace has required extensive research faced with fundamental empirical challenges. The most sophisticated statistical analysis supports the conclusion that democratic governance is a primary determinant of peaceful relations between similarly-democratic states. Scholars also offer theory and evidence on the specific mechanisms that make war less likely between democratic states, although this question remains unsettled. 

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We show how exposure to partisan peers, under conditions requiring high stakes cooperation, can trigger the breakthrough of novel political beliefs. We exploit the large-scale, exogenous assignment of soldiers from each of 34,947 French municipalities into line infantry regiments during World War I. We show that soldiers from poor, rural municipalities---where the novel redistributive message of the left had previously failed to penetrate---voted for the left by nearly 45% more after the war when exposed to left-wing partisans within their regiment. We provide evidence that these differences reflect persuasive information provision by both peers and officers in the trenches that proved particularly effective among those most likely to benefit from the redistributive policies of the left. In contrast, soldiers from neighbouring municipalities that served with right-wing partisans are inoculated against the left, becoming moderate centrists instead.

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Saumitra Jha
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We are pleased to share the publication of a new volume, Cold War Refugees: Connected Histories of Displacement and Migration across Postcolonial Asia, edited by the Korea Program's Yumi Moon, associate professor in Stanford's Department of History.

The book, now available from Stanford University Press, revisits Cold War history by examining the identities, cultures, and agendas of the many refugees forced to flee their homes across East, Southeast, and South Asia due to the great power conflict between the US and the USSR. Moon's book draws on multilingual archival sources and presents these displaced peoples as historical actors in their own right, not mere subjects of government actions. Exploring the local, regional, and global contexts of displacement through five cases —Taiwan, Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan — this volume sheds new light on understudied aspects of Cold War history.

This book is an important new contribution to our understanding of population flows on the Korean Peninsula across decades.
Paul Chang
Deputy Director, Korea Program

The book's chapters — written by Phi-Vân Nguyen, Dominic Meng-Hsuan Yang, Yumi Moon, Ijlal Muzaffar, Robert D. Crews, Sabauon Nasseri, and Aishwary Kumar — explore Vietnam's 1954 partition, refugees displaced from Zhejiang to Taiwan, North Korean refugees in South Korea from 1945–50, the Cold War legacy in Karachi, and Afghan refugees.

Purchase Cold War Refugees at www.sup.org and receive 20% off with the code MOON20.

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Within Asia, World War II memories and commemorations are not only different from those in the United States but also divided and contested, still shaping and affected by politics and nationalism. Only when U.S. and Asian leaders come together to mark the end of the Asia-Pacific war can they present a credible, collective vision for the peace and prosperity of this important region.
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At a recent conference, lab members presented data-driven, policy-relevant insights into rival-making in U.S.-China relations.
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The new volume, edited by Stanford historian Yumi Moon, examines the experiences of Asian populations displaced by the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union.

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On August 15, President Donald Trump welcomed Vladimir Putin to the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. It was the first time since their sideline meeting in 2019 at the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan that the two leaders have met, and the first time Putin has traveled to the United States since the United Nations General Assembly in New York in 2015.

While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine met with President Trump in Washington, DC the following  week, some observers have expressed trepidation over the prospect of a deal being made between Russia and the United States without the input of Ukraine.

Writing for Brookings ahead of the summit, Steven Pifer, an affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and The Europe Center, and a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine warned:

“Putin will seek to trap Trump into endorsing a position that incorporates the major elements of long-standing Russian demands. If Trump agrees, he will suffer unflattering comparisons to Neville Chamberlain, who agreed to surrender a large part of Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany in 1938. While the Czechoslovakian government concluded it had no choice and accepted the territorial loss, the Ukrainians will say no. They will not embrace their own capitulation.”

So how did the meeting in Anchorage actually play out?

In commentary on social media, FSI Director and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul summarized the talks in the context of the Yalta Conference, an agreement between the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union made in the waning months of WWII that quickly fell apart when Joseph Stalin broke promises made to Western leaders to maintain and support democratic elections in Eastern Europe.

Speaking on NPR’s Morning Edition, McFaul elaborated on his concerns: 

“What I think the worst outcome would be is if President Trump starts negotiating on behalf of the Ukrainians without the Ukrainians in the room. Trump needs something tangible, and I hope that doesn't make him too anxious to start negotiating on behalf of the Ukrainians because that would be a disaster. If he jams President Zelenskyy with something he can't accept, that would be the worst of all outcomes.”

Pifer echoed his relief about the lack of discussion over particulars about Ukraine between the two leaders, but also pointed out that the broadest goal of the meeting also hadn’t been met.

“The good news is, President Trump didn’t give away the store. I was concerned he might get into bargaining on details about Ukraine without the Ukrainians there, which would be to their detriment. But it seems Mr. Trump failed in his stated goal to achieve a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine,” said Pifer. 

But even without a concrete policy outcome, Pifer says the Alaska meeting was an optical victory for Russia: 

“The significance for Vladimir Putin is that the meeting happened in the first place. Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine back in 2022, there’s been a boycott by Western leaders of any kind of face-to-face meeting with Putin. And by hosting him in Alaska, Trump broke that boycott. That is being played up in Moscow as a huge victory that Putin has been legitimized again.”

On Monday, August 18, President Zelenskyy and a cadre of other European leaders met with President Trump at the White House to discuss the Friday meeting and reinforce Europe’s positions and redlines against capitulation to Russian demands.

In analysis for Foreign Policy, Pifer outlined the stakes of this follow-up meeting for the European delegation:

“Zelenskyy and his European colleagues face a tricky challenge. They have to diplomatically offer suggestions to walk Trump back from a position that he does not appear to understand would be bad for Ukraine, bad for Europe, and bad for American interests. And they have to do so without setting off an explosion that could disrupt U.S.-Ukrainian and U.S.-European relations.”

McFaul is also cautious about the tone and tack of the discussions moving forward:

“I think it’s a good thing [the Europeans and Trump] are talking about security guarantees,“ he told Alex Witt on MSNBC. “But the devil is in the details. We keep hearing something about ‘NATO-like security guarantees.’ Why not just NATO security guarantees?"

The argument for building a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine based on NATO membership is a proposal McFaul has long supported.

“This notion that these guarantees are going to be something like NATO but less than NATO . . . if I were the Ukrainians, that would make me nervous. They had guarantees like that in 1994 called the Budapest Memorandum, and it meant nothing. It didn’t stop Putin from invading in 2014, and it didn’t stop him from launching a full-scale war in 2022,” McFaul reminded viewers.

“To me,” he argues, “it has to be NATO, not NATO-lite. The only way to do real, credible security guarantees for Ukraine is membership in NATO.”

In assessing the White House meeting with President Zelenskyy and European leadership, Rose Gottemoeller, the William J. Perry lecturer at CISAC and former deputy secretary of NATO, is cautiously optimistic. 

“This was a major step along the road, and it was vital that the Europeans were there as well as Ukraine,” she told the CBC.

A seasoned negotiator with direct experience working on high-level diplomacy with Russia, Gottemoeller is no stranger to the long process of dealmaking with the Kremlin.

“There are many steps to get through. We are not there yet. As much as Trump would like to walk out of the Oval Office and say, ‘We got the deal done,’ I think there will be many more hoops to jump through before that is possible.”



Additional insights from our scholars on the Trump-Putin summit and White House meeting with Zelenskyy and other European leaders can be found at the following links:

Russia, Ukraine, and Trump on Katie Couric
Trump Meets with Putin: Experts React in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
There Are No Participation Trophies in High-Stakes Diplomacy on Substack

 

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2025 Strengthening Ukrainian Democracy and Development fellows
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Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in conversation on the tarmac of the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson on August 15, 2025 in Anchorage, Alaska.
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FSI scholars Michael McFaul, Steven Pifer, and Rose Gottemoeller analyze the Alaska meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and its implications for Ukraine’s security and sovereignty.

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Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in conversation on the tarmac of the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson on August 15, 2025 in Anchorage, Alaska.
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After the Trump-Putin Summit, Is Ending the Ukraine-Russia War Any Closer?
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Encina Hall, E109
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Gerhard Casper Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-26
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Ana Paula Pellegrino is the Gerhard Casper Fellow in Rule of Law at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and a JSD Candidate at Stanford Law School. Pellegrino is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of criminal and political violence, with a particular interest in Latin America. Her research agenda includes projects on state and non-state armed actors, including police and criminal groups, and how they form and engage with each other. Other projects explore public attitudes towards violence and war, as well as the micro-dynamics of violence and war outcomes.

Pellegrino's work has been supported by Georgetown University, Fundação Estudar’s Leaders program, and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation’s Emerging Scholars program. She holds a Ph.D. in Government from Georgetown University and a BA and MA in International Relations from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. She is an incoming Assistant Professor at the School of Government at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, in Santiago, where she will begin in July 2026.

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Pathways to Freedom: Defending Political Prisoners and Democracy

The Stanford community is invited to join the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law on Monday, August 4, for an important conversation about democracy, human rights, and political prisoners worldwide.

Authoritarian regimes across the globe are increasingly using political imprisonment as a strategic weapon. Far beyond isolated acts of repression, political prisoners serve autocrats in multiple ways: they silence vocal dissidents, fracture organized opposition, deter mass mobilization, and are often used as bargaining chips in international negotiations. These regimes understand that imprisoning individuals can sow fear and demoralize broader movements without drawing the same global backlash as overt violence.

The case of Jesús Armas — a Venezuelan activist, 2022 Fisher Family Summer Fellow, and recently admitted student to Stanford’s Master’s in International Policy program — illustrates this dynamic. His unjust detention for over seven months, under conditions of isolation and legal abuse, is not an aberration, but part of a systematic strategy to preserve power.

This event will explore not only the barriers advocates face in these environments and the human cost of political imprisonment, but also the strategies available to fight it. Families and advocates of detainees play a crucial frontline role, often navigating trauma, stigma, and bureaucratic barriers while working for their loved ones' release.

PANELISTS:

  • Lilian Tintori: Director of the World Liberty Congress' Pathway to Freedom project; human rights advocate, and leader with first-hand experience as the spouse of a former political prisoner; 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellow
  • Waleed Shawky: Egyptian human rights researcher and civic activist, co-founder of the April 6th Youth Movement; former political prisoner; 2025 Fisher Family Summer Fellow.
  • Gulika Reddy: Human rights advocate and Director of the International Human Rights and Conflict Resolution Clinic at Stanford Law School


Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, will share opening remarks.

Beatriz Magaloni
Beatriz Magaloni

William J. Perry Conference Room
Encina Hall, Second Floor, Central, C231

Open to Stanford affiliates only. Registration is not required.

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Waleed Shawky
Gulika Reddy
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On June 21, 2025, the United States executed a major military strike against Iran, targeting three of its most critical nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The Fordow facility, deeply buried beneath a mountain near the city of Qom, has long been considered Iran’s most secure uranium enrichment site. Its depth has been estimated at 80 to 90 meters underground, with a great deal of reinforced concrete to protect it from aerial bombardment. Natanz also has a less well-protected enrichment facility; it was the target of the Stuxnet cyberattack about 15 years ago.

The US operation, called “Operation Midnight Hammer,” involved a coordinated assault using B-2 Spirit bombers and a US Navy submarine. According to Pentagon briefings, seven B-2 bombers each carried two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs designed to penetrate up to 200 feet of reinforced earth or concrete. In a 25-minute window, a dozen GBU-57 bombs were dropped on Fordow and two on Natanz. The submarine launched more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles against surface infrastructure targets in Isfahan.

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While the attacks have likely inflicted significant damage on critical nuclear facilities in the short term, their ultimate success in halting Iran’s nuclear program is far from assured

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Herbert Lin
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At the 2025 Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture, journalist and author Amir Tibon discussed how his family survived Hamas’ invasion from Gaza into Israel on Saturday, October 7, 2023, the history of Israeli-Gazan relations, as well as scenarios for the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“Rockets are falling,” Tibon said, reading a portion of his new book, The Gates of Gaza: A Story of Betrayal, Survival, and Home in Israel's Borderlands. “We [Amir Tibon, his wife Miri, and their two infant daughters] are locked in this room inside our house. We certainly had never heard a bullet cracking through a window and hitting a wall inside a sealed house. Let alone our house. But that's exactly what we were now hearing.”

In the May 12 discussion with Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Tibon described that harrowing day and the heroic account of how his father, retired Major General Noam Tibon, fought his way into Kibbutz Nahal-Oz, and eventually helped rescue the family.

The Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture honors the life of Daniel Pearl (Class of '85), who was a journalist, musician, and family man dedicated to the ideals of peace and humanity. In 2002, Daniel was kidnapped and killed by terrorists in Pakistan while working as a foreign correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. The event was hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.

An audience of nearly 200 guests filled Bechtel Conference Center to hear Tibon speak.
An audience of nearly 200 guests filled Bechtel Conference Center to hear Tibon speak. | Rod Searcey

‘Keep the girls calm and quiet’


For almost 10 hours on October 7, Tibon and his wife and daughters listened to the sounds of gunfire and rockets outside, while monitoring Hamas atrocities on their phones and sending desperate SOS messages from their darkened safe room. 

Tibon said, “We had only one advantage, which is that we could hear them, we could hear their bullets, we could hear their shouting, and if we managed to keep the girls calm and quiet, they wouldn't hear us. And so that was our mission, to keep the girls calm and quiet.” 

They did, waiting until about 4:00 pm when the family was eventually freed by Tibon’s father, who drove with his mother from Tel Aviv to rescue the besieged family. Along the way, his parents made key decisions to rescue wounded Israelis by taking them to the hospital.

Learning later on about his parents’ dangerous foray into a war zone — and the aid they offered along the way — Tibon gained a deeper insight about saving those in grave peril. This informs his moral stance on prioritizing the rescue of the remaining 58 hostages — alive and dead — still held by Hamas in Gaza, over the competing priority of dismantling Hamas as a military and governing organization:

“When I look today at the dilemma of the state of Israel, whether to continue the war after 20 months or to stop in order to save those who need immediate saving, I don't see a dilemma. You save those who need immediate saving, and then you continue the mission,” said Tibon, focusing on the fates of the approximately 20 living Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

When Diamond asked him about the word “betrayal” in the book’s subtitle, Tibon said the dual meaning of the term is a conscious one. The word “betrayal” reflects two concepts — the failure of the Israeli government, military, and intelligence services to heed early danger warnings about a Hamas attack, and the disappointment about their neighbors in Gaza, with whom they had for years worked with on peace and reconciliation issues. 

He recalled kibbutz members who volunteered to take cancer patients from Gaza in their cars to Israeli hospitals so they could receive optimal medical treatments.

“This was a peace-seeking community that, for many years, advocated for peace and reconciliation,” he said.

Following the conversation, Tibon took questions from the audience.
Following the conversation, Tibon took questions from the audience. | Rod Searcey

As for accountability, Tibon emphasized the need for Israel to launch an independent and professional investigation into the October 7 catastrophe through a State Commission of Inquiry. Such an inquiry would examine the causes of the strategic, intelligence, defensive, and operational breakdowns experienced by Israel before, during, and after the attack, and would establish who was responsible for the multiple failures. 

“This is the strongest tool in the Israeli system for investigating failures of the state. It's a commission established by the government, headed by a former judge, that has all the powers of a seated court to invite witnesses and investigate,” he added, noting that the current government has not yet approved such an endeavor, despite about 70-85 percent of Israelis supporting such a commission.

Tibon said, “The government is refusing to do it because they are afraid of what will come out.”

‘Shifted public opinion’


The October 7 Hamas terrorist attack marked a major, and rather peculiar, shift in domestic Israeli politics, Tibon said.

“It shifted public opinion on the conflict to the right because there is a lack of belief in the peace process after this kind of thing. And at the same time, it significantly weakened the current right-wing government, which in all the public opinion polls is losing a lot of support,” he said.

He explained that this trend reveals that Israelis currently do not believe in a peace process and that they perceive an existential need to defend their families and homeland. 

At the same time, Israelis want a serious and competent government, and the existing right-leaning government is not viewed as such.

“We have to be led and managed by competent, serious people, and this government is not considered competent or serious by most of the Israeli public for obvious reasons,” he said.
 


Forever wars may be good for religious preachers, but they're not good for border communities. Border communities need to reach an end and go back and rebuild.
Amir Tibon


In his book, Tibon expresses deep empathy for the people who are suffering in Gaza, and he reflects on another subtitle, “hope.”

Hope can begin, he said, with saving the Israeli hostages and then ending the war. “Forever wars may be good for religious preachers, but they're not good for border communities. Border communities need to reach an end and go back and rebuild,” said Tibon.

He cited a Polish poet, who once wrote that after every war, somebody has to clean up. “We are the ones who are going to have to clean up and fix our own houses,” he said.

Tibon is an award-winning diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper. His story and book, The Gates of Gaza, was featured on 60 Minutes.

He, his wife, and daughters are currently living in temporary housing in north-central Israel.  

Diamond said, “This is a story of remarkable courage and tenacity from many quarters in the face of unspeakable terror and potentially paralyzing fear. It is quintessentially an Israeli story.”

A full recording of the conversation can be viewed here.

The 2025 Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture was presented by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program in partnership with the Daniel Pearl Foundation, the Taube Center for Jewish Studies, and Hillel at Stanford. 

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Yoav Heller presented during a Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies winter webinar.
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Dr. Yoav Heller on Rebuilding Centrist Politics and Uniting Israelis

Dr. Heller, founder of the Fourth Quarter, discussed how grassroots centrist movements can overcome identity-driven polarization in Israel by fostering unity, especially in the wake of national tragedy, and emphasized the need for long-term internal peace-building and reimagining Israeli society’s future.
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Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat discusses diplomacy during a seminar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program.
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Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat on the Art of Diplomacy

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Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks

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Journalist and author Amir Tibon spoke with Larry Diamond at the May 12 event.
Journalist and author Amir Tibon spoke with Larry Diamond at the May 12 event. | Rod Searcey
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Journalist Amir Tibon shared his family’s story of survival, betrayal, and hope for peace with a Stanford audience, while also offering insights on contemporary Israeli politics.

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