Climate
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Dramatic improvements and cost reductions in renewable energy technologies have occurred over the past decade and even greater improvements are expected in the years to come. In addition, plentiful unconventional gas resources in North America and potentially broadly around the world provide prospects for a long-term lower carbon-emitting fossil fuel for electricity production and other uses. This optimistic outlook is in stark contrast to the energy situation in developing countries. Even today, several billion people lack access to electricity and clean cooking fuels. Additionally, industries in these developing countries--which are crucial for raising people from poverty, suffer from unreliable electricity and fuel supplies, which dramatically lowers productivity. This talk will first discuss the promising developments in advanced energy technologies and then explore the prospects, challenges and options for addressing energy access in the developing countries.


About the speaker: Sally M. Benson was appointed GCEP Director in January 2009 after holding the Executive Director post since March 2007. A Professor (Research) in the Department of Energy Resources Engineering (ERE) in the School of Earth Sciences, Benson has been a member of Stanford’s faculty since 2007. Her research group in ERE investigates fundamental characteristics of carbon dioxide storage in geologic formations as a means of climate change mitigation. She teaches courses on carbon dioxide capture and storage and greenhouse gas mitigation technologies.

Prior to joining GCEP, Benson worked at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), serving in a number of capacities, including Division Director for Earth Sciences, Associate Laboratory Director for Energy Sciences, and Deputy Director for Operations. Benson graduated from Barnard College at Columbia University in 1977 with a bachelor’s degree in geology. She completed her graduate education in 1988 at the University of California, Berkeley, after receiving master’s and doctoral degrees, both in materials science and mineral engineering.

CISAC Conference Room

Sally Benson Director, Global Climate and Energy Project, Professor (research) in Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University Speaker
Seminars
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In recent years, natural gas prices in the United States have gone from historic highs of over $12 per mmBtu in the summer of 2008, to under $2.50/mmBtu in 2012. While demand side factors – such as the crisis in global financial markets – were partially to blame, many would argue that the real story is on the supply side, where increased production of shale gas – a form of unconventional natural gas trapped in leafy shale rock – drove gas prices down across the continent. The impact of low gas prices was felt in the form of cheap electricity, heating, and feedstocks to consumers and industry, which in turn bolstered the economic recovery. As an added bonus, cheap gas displaced dirty coal in power generation, reducing carbon emissions and pollution.

It is no wonder then, that when a recent U.S. Energy Information Administration publication on world wide reserves of shale gas crowned China as the holder of the world’s largest shale gas reserves, many inside and outside the Middle Kingdom were intrigued and enthralled by the possibilities of what shale gas could mean for China – in terms of climate, pollution, quality of life – and what it could mean for the broader international gas trade.

In this upcoming EWG talk, we will highlight some of the current activities and future plans for unconventional gas development in China. We will focus on the political, institutional, and commercial forces at play, and discuss some of the potential upsides and pitfalls that China will encounter on the road to realizing its unconventional gas potential.

Stanford University

Joe Chang Speaker
Jonathan Strahl Speaker
Seminars
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Connecting the Dots conference website

Stanford experts from a range of disciplines discuss the interconnections and interactions among humanity's needs for and use of water, food, energy, and environment. Drawing on their own research, the speakers illustrate and evaluate some of the ways in which decisions in one resource area can lead to trade-offs or co-benefits in others. Participants examine sustainable freshwater resources and uses in Africa, Asia, and the arid West. 

Panel: Africa - Water, Nutrition, Health and Poverty

China: Water, Food, Climate, and Policy


Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center

Conferences
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Yasunori Kakemizu, "Strategy of CATV in the Competitive TV Market: Open vs. Closed Models"

After prospering for more than a half-century in the United States, the cable industry is taking on a new competitor, Over-The-Top providers (OTT). OTT providers are a product of the information technology revolution that emerged from the invention of Internet protocol of the late 20th century. In his research presentation, Kakemizu tries to answer the question: What is the strategy of the cable industry in the United States and what will happen to it in the near future? Kakemizu analyzes the current threat and opportunity facing cable television companies, focusing on the strategies against OTT, such as Netflix and Hulu.

 

Hideaki Koda, "Driving the Electric Vehicle Forward: Reshaping Car Sharing with EV and ICT"

Should the all-electric vehicle challenge the traditional car head-on in the mainstream market? The answer may be "no" if you look back on the history of disruptive innovations. An innovative technology at its dawn often succeeds first in a smaller, untapped market where its strengths shine and its weaknesses are shadowed (or even turned into strengths). It then enters the mainstream market over time by achieving more maturity, as typically shown in the computer market. Then where is the market for the electric vehicle? It might be car sharing, which is thought to be a potentially large market. Koda discusses how to combine electric vehicles and car sharing with information and communications technology (e.g. Big Data processing) to achieve a win-win solution for all by taking advantage of the unique characteristics of the electric vehicle.  

 

Haiming Li, "Competing Strategies for China's Large Commercial Banks"

Competing strategies are critical to China's large commercial banks, as they determine future direction of development for these banks. Research shows that following five strategies, namely a strategy for lead changes, a strategy for globalization, a strategy for diversification, a strategy for systematic risk management, as well as a strategy for establishing a decision-making support system, need to be adapted. Coordinated implementation of these strategies will enhance the competitiveness of China's large commercial banks both home and abroad.

 

Yoshimasa Waseda, "Nantotechnolgoy for Fuel Cells: The Impact and Analysis of the Status Using Patent Information"

Judging from the need to reduce increasing dangers of future global climate change, clean energy has become more important and is a key issue for future development. Fuel cells are a candidate for achieving clean energy in the future although they currently have some disadvantages. Many researchers study the application of nanotechnology for fuel cells to solve these disadvantages using the unique phenomena of nanomaterials. In this presentation, Waseda discusses the impact of nanotechnology for fuel cells and analyzes the status of each region using patent information.


Philippines Conference Room

Yasunori Kakemizu Speaker Sumitomo Corporation
Hideaki Koda Speaker Mitsubishi Electric
Haiming Li Speaker Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
Yoshimasa Waseda Speaker Japan Patent Office
Seminars
Paragraphs

Climate change has the potential to be a source of increased variability if crops are more frequently exposed to damaging weather conditions. Yield variability could respond to a shift in the frequency of extreme events to which crops are susceptible, or if weather becomes more variable. Here we focus on the United States, which produces about 40% of the world’s maize, much of it in areas that are expected to see increased interannual variability in temperature. We combine a statistical crop model based on historical climate and yield data for 1950–2005 with temperature and precipitation projections from 15 different global circulation models. Holding current growing area constant, aggregate yields are projected to decrease by an average of 18% by 2030–2050 relative to 1980–2000 while the coefficient of variation of yield increases by an average of 47%. Projections from 13 out of 15 climate models result in an aggregate increase in national yield coefficient of variation, indicating that maize yields are likely to become more volatile in this key growing region without effective adaptation responses. Rising CO2 could partially dampen this increase in variability through improved water use efficiency in dry years, but we expect any interactions between CO2 and temperature or precipitation to have little effect on mean yield changes.

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Climatic Change
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Dan Urban
Wolfram Schlenker
David Lobell
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New research led by Carnegie's Julia Pongratz, and supported by FSE center fellow David Lobell, examines the potential effects that geoengineering the climate could have on global food production. The team concludes that sunshade geoengineering would be more likely to improve rather than threaten food security. Their work was published online by Nature Climate Change on January 22.
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David Lobell
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A new study out of Stanford University finds extreme temperatures are cutting wheat yields by 20 to as much as 50 percent, a finding worse than previously estimated. FSE center fellow David Lobell and his colleagues used nine years of satellite measurements of wheat growth in northern India's breadbasket, the Indo-Gangetic Plains, to analyze rates of wheat ageing after exposure to temperatures higher than 34 degrees Celsius. 

Extreme heat beyond the plant's tolerance zone damages photosynthetic cells. This causes wheat to age faster, reducing the length of the growing season and the amount and size of the wheat grains. The team's crop models found that a two degree increase in temperatures would reduce the growing season by nine days, yielding 20 percent less wheat.

As the world's second-biggest crop, lost wheat yields may become a major threat to global food security. Especially given the projection that global yields need to rise 50 percent by 2050 to feed a growing, more affluent population. The results imply that warming presents an even greater challenge to wheat than previous studies estimated, and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce crop sensitivity to very hot days, particularly in areas of the world such as India already experiencing warming conditions.

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The demand for food, feed and fuel will continue to rise as the world population grows and becomes more affluent. Meeting this demand will be especially challenging because of global warming, say climate experts, and the impacts of climate variability could make food markets even more volatile, adds Rosamond L. Naylor, professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford University.

Naylor led a symposium on the compound effects of climate change and climate variability on food security at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) February 17th.

The symposium focused on two examples of climate variability: changes in growing-season temperature extremes beyond the range observed in the historical record, and changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon – the most energetic form of year-to-year climate variability known.

Panelist David S. Battisti, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, addressed key challenges in assessing the impact of extreme temperatures in coming decades. According to Battisti, global warming models forcast that temperature variability will increase as the average temperature warms, greatly compounding the likelihood of extreme heat and droughts. Unfortunately, these models typically have too much temperature variability in their simulations of present-day climate, he said. Battisti's talk focused on the cause of these modeling biases and their impact on climate forecasting.

Panelist Daniel J. Vimont, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, discussed the impacts of El Niño in a warmer world. ENSO impacts can be severe in regions in and surrounding the tropical Pacific, and can extend around the globe, he said. ENSO variability – its return period and intensity – are very sensitive to changes in mean conditions in the tropical Pacific, he added, but these conditions are notoriously difficult to simulate using the present generation of global climate models. Vimont presented results from the linear ocean atmosphere model (LOAM), a new scientific tool for estimating global warming's impact on ENSO variability.

Naylor addressed the impacts of climate on global markets for major staple commodities, which are already under pressure from increased population-, income-, and energy-driven demands. She outlined the potential effects of climate variability on regional trade patterns, price volatility, policy responses and human welfare. 

 

Mark Shwartz is the Communications/Writer at Precourt Institute for Energy at Stanford University.

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