Stanford University

Coal

The China Factor: Short and Long-term Drivers of Chinese Coal Imports

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In 2009 China, the world's largest coal producer, in seemingly a counterintuitive shift, became the world's largest coal importer at the same time.  The resulting realignment of the global coal trade has altered global prices for coal and power, and may be the harbinger of an "Asian coal decade" to come. 

Drawing on their recent presentation at Coaltrans Asia 2010, PESD researchers Gang He and Richard Morse examine the recent trend of soaring Chinese coal imports, and offer a theory of what will drive this long term coal import/export balance between China and the world in the next 10 years.  He and Morse argue that China's voracious appetite for imported coal is largely profit driven and takes advantage of key arbitrage relationships in the global market.  But those relationships are in turn largely a function of key political economy issues in China's domestic energy markets. 

Major coal and power sector reforms,  such as coal sector consolidation and coal-power integration, will impact domestic coal prices and therefore will largely drive China's import trends going forward.  Thus China's shift to imports is not a paradigm shift in global markets, but rather a harbinger of greater trade volatility in the future.

Gang He

616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
0
Research Associate
Gang.jpg

Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

Gang He Speaker
Richard Morse Speaker
Seminars

PESD releases Dr. Bart Lucarelli's cutting edge analysis of one of the world's fastest growing and most important coal markets

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Over the past two decades, Indonesia's coal industry has transformed itself from being an unknown, minor player in Asia's coal markets to the world's largest exporter of steam coal. In what is likely the most detailed analysis of the Indonesian coal industry ever released, Dr. Bart Lucarelli tells the story of how Indonesia created this world-scale industry over two decades despite challenges created by widespread government corruption, a weak legal system, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, and the fall of the Soeharto government in 1998.

The paper argues that key physical and technical factors, along with regulatory and political factors, have acted as the primary drivers of the industry's phenomenal growth over the past two decades and will be the most important factors for consideration over the next two decades.  It also discusses current estimates of Indonesia's coal resources and reserves, the role played by location and geological factors in the development of its coal resources, the future impacts of the passage of Indonesia's Mining Law of 2009 and its related implementing regulations, and how these issues might affect the coal industry's structure and performance before 2020.

 

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Research Experience in Carbon Sequestration 2010

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Student Union Building
Acoma A&B Rooms
University of New Mexico
Albuquerque, NM 87131

Gang He

616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
0
Research Associate
Gang.jpg

Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

Gang He Speaker
Workshops

The History and Future of Indonesia's Coal Industry: Impact of Politics and Regulatory Framework on Industry Structure and Performance

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Over the past two decades, Indonesia's coal industry has transformed itself from being an unknown, minor player in Asia's coal markets to the world's largest exporter of steam coal. In what is likely the most detailed analysis of the Indonesian coal industry ever released, Dr. Bart Lucarelli tells the story of how Indonesia created this world-scale industry over two decades despite challenges created by widespread government corruption, a weak legal system, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, and the fall of the Soeharto government in 1998.

The paper argues that key physical and technical factors, along with regulatory and political factors, have acted as the primary drivers of the industry's phenomenal growth over the past two decades and will be the most important factors for consideration over the next two decades.  It also discusses current estimates of Indonesia's coal resources and reserves, the role played by location and geological factors in the development of its coal resources, the future impacts of the passage of Indonesia's Mining Law of 2009 and its related implementing regulations, and how these issues might affect the coal industry's structure and performance before 2020.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
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Overcoming imperfections

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August 2010

The World's Greatest Coal Arbitrage: China's Coal Import Behavior and Implications for the Global Coal Market

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The World's Greatest Coal Arbitrage: China's Coal Import Behavior and Implications for the Global Coal Market
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Trading Carbon Magazine
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Gang He
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16th Annual Coaltrans Asia

Richard Morse led a presentation on China's long term coal import/export balance at the 16th Annual Coaltrans Asia 3-day conference in Indonesia.  A few topics he addressed were:

  • Is the world's largest coal producer on the verge of becoming a net-importer?
  • Import price spreads
  • How and why China's government may intervene in the coal markets
  • Domestic market reform and investment

Coaltrans Conferences organises large-scale international coal conferences which attract delegates from all over the world. It also runs focused regional events, exhibitions, field trips and training courses. It has a reputation for employing the highest organisational standards. In 2010, Coaltrans is running events in Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Singapore, South Africa, The Netherlands, The UK, The US, and Vietnam.

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Bali International Convention Centre, Indonesia

Richard K. Morse Speaker
Conferences

Coal's Role in the Global Energy Mix: Coal Markets with a View to 2030

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Richard Morse states that coal is the largest growing source of energy and that regulation and policy are beginning to play a larger role in the economy of coal power. Morse also discusses the heavy reliance on coal by developing countries and the need to understand and evaluate all mitigation options.

Building 420
Room 40

Richard K. Morse Speaker
Seminars

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): Creating a Framework for U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate and Energy

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PESD researcher Gang He is invited to the Asia Society and Center for American Progress's roundtable Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): Creating a Framework for U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate and Energy to discuss core policy, financing, and technological and intellectual property rights questions that need to be addressed between China and the U.S. over a commercial-scale, demonstration CCS plant in China.

This joint initiative by Asia Society and the Center for American Progress aims to bring together key stakeholders for a lively discussion with the objective of producing a document that lays the framework for both countries to cooperate on the joint research, development and deployment of one or more pilot CCS facilities in China.

Center for American Progress
1225 Eye Street NW 3rd Floor
Washington D.C., 20001

Gang He

616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
0
Research Associate
Gang.jpg

Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

Gang He Speaker
Workshops

Guest Lecture: China’s Coal and Power Conflict and Its Broad Impacts

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PESD researcher Gang He will be guest lecturing in Stanford University's China Energy System course on China's coal and power conflict and its broad impacts on Chinese energy and climate policy.  He will discuss the most important feature in China's energy market - coal and power conflict, explain why there is a conflict and how it come into being, and analyze the broad impacts of the conflict on deploying CCS at scale and applying CDM in the Chinese power market.  Gang will also highlight some possible solutions to the coal and power conflict in China's energy market.

China Energy System(CEE 276F) is a directed readings course that studies the energy resources and policies in use and under development in the world's most populous nation.  As a country undergoing rapid and sustained economic growth, China's decisions as to how to meet its energy requirements will affect global energy markets and impact the global environment.  This course focuses on the areas of major impact that are forecast and will present a comparative analysis of China's energy management strategies.

Y2E2 111

Gang He

616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
0
Research Associate
Gang.jpg

Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

Gang He Speaker
Lectures
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