This is part of the Stanford seminar series on Science, Technology, and Society.

Abstract
How do transformative new technologies arise, and how does innovation really work? Conventional thinking ascribes the invention of technologies to “thinking outside the box,” or vaguely to genius or creativity, but Arthur shows that such explanations are inadequate. Rather, technologies are put together from pieces  themselves technologies  that already exist. Technologies therefore share common ancestries, and combine, morph, and combine again, to create further technologies. Technology evolves much as a coral reef builds itself from activities of small organisms  it creates itself from itself; and all technologies are descended from earlier technologies.

W. Brian Arthur is an External Faculty Member at the Santa Fe Institute, IBM Faculty Fellow, and Visiting Researcher in the Intelligent Systems Lab at PARC (formerly Xerox Parc). From 1983 to 1996 he was Morrison Professor of Economics and Population Studies at Stanford University. He holds a Ph.D. from Berkeley in Operations Research, and has other degrees in economics, engineering and mathematics.

Arthur pioneered the modern study of positive feedbacks or increasing returns in the economy--in particular their role in magnifying small, random events in the economy. This work has gone on to become the basis of our understanding of the high-tech economy. He has recently published a new book: The Nature of Technology: What it Is and How it Evolves, "an elegant and powerful theory of technology's origins and evolution."He is also one of the pioneers of the science of complexity.

Arthur was the first director of the Economics Program at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, and has served on SFI's Science Board and Board of Trustees. He is the recipient of the Schumpeter Prize in economics, the Lagrange Prize in complexity science, and two honorary doctorates.

Arthur is a frequent keynote speaker on such topics as: How exactly does innovation work and how can it be fostered? What is happening in the economy, and how should we rethink economics? How is the digital revolution playing out in the economy? How will US and European national competitiveness fare, given the rise of China and India?

Lynn Eden is Associate Director for Research at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. Eden received her Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Michigan, held several pre- and post-doctoral fellowships, and taught in the history department at Carnegie Mellon before coming to Stanford. In the area of international security, Eden has focused on U.S. foreign and military policy, arms control, the social construction of science and technology, and organizational issues regarding nuclear policy and homeland security. She co-edited, with Steven E. Miller, Nuclear Arguments: Understanding the Strategic Nuclear Arms and Arms Control Debates (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989). She was an editor of The Oxford Companion to American Military History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), which takes a social and cultural perspective on war and peace in U.S. history. That volume was chosen as a Main Selection of the History Book Club.

Eden's book Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004; New Delhi: Manas Publications, 2004) explores how and why the U.S. government--from World War II to the present--has greatly underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons by failing to predict damage from firestorms. It shows how well-funded and highly professional organizations, by focusing on what they do well and systematically excluding what they don't, may build a poor representation of the world--a self-reinforcing fallacy that can have serious consequences, from the sinking of the Titanic to not predicting the vulnerability of the World Trade Center to burning jet fuel. Whole World on Fire won the American Sociological Association's 2004 Robert K. Merton Award for best book in science, knowledge, and technology.

Co-sponsored by STS, CISAC, and WTO.

Arthur's new book, The Nature of Technology, will be available for purchase.

Please bring lunch; drinks and light refreshments will be provided.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Hirofumi Takinami, "Political Economy of the Financial Crises in Japan & United States - A Comparative Study on the Bailout of Financial Institutions"

Currently, the United States is suffering from a financial crisis.  Japan has struggled with a financial crisis from the late 1990's to the early 2000's.  What implications can be drawn from these crisis experiences of the two largest economies in the world?  As one part of a collaborative research with Professor Phillip Lipscy on "Policy Innovation in Japan and the United States:  A Comparative Study of Response to Finiancial Crises", Takinami analyzes which elements are crucial in the use of bailout of financial institutions as a means to address financial crises.  Stressing that taxpayers' understanding and market sentiment are key, he makes arguments especially on the "learning effect" of Japanese financial crisis and the importance of action by the national leader and his/her secretarial organizations.

Takashi Uchida, "Comparative Research Study of Manufacturing Between the United States and Japan"

Manufacturing consists of upstream (raw material suppliers), middle stream (casting, dyes, metal press, etc.) and downstream (automobile companies, machinery companies, and electric companies).  To accurately view the structure of manufacturing as "supply chain", Uchida analyzes where manufacturing value comes from.  In particular, Uchida takes a look at the automobile market, comparing the difference between manufacturing in Japan and the United States.

Zheng Wang, "Valuation and Integration of Intangible Assets in Mergers and Acquisitions"

In modern economies, a large proportion of a company's assets tend to be intangible, such as brand names.  Intangible assets have become one of the key factors behind a company's competitive strength.  In particular, obtaining a target's intangible assets has been the major driving force in M&A activities during the past years.

M&A for intangible assets tends to be more complicated than for tangible assets, mainly due to the challenges in terms of valuation and post-deal integration.  In this research presentation, Wang analyzes some special issues in valuation and integration of intangible assets in M&As, and tries to draw useful lessons on M&A for intangible assets through case study.

On Tuesday, September 7, 2010, the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development in collaboration with the Stanford University's Graduate School of Business and Stanford Law School hosted a special conference on Climate Policy Instruments in the Real World.

This conference featured presentations by leading researchers on the political, economic, and regulatory challenges associated with major climate policy instruments.  The goal of this conference was to transfer the state-of-the-art in policy-relevant academic research on key aspects of climate policy design and analysis to the business, regulatory and policymaking communities.  Each presentation was followed by comments from two discussants that develop the practical implications of the research results presented for decision-makers in industry and government.

Topics our experts explored included: setting a price for carbon, engaging the developing world in climate change mitigation, the role of renewable energy sources in climate change mitigation, mechanisms for reducing greenhouse gases from the transportation sector, managing intermittency in the electricity sector, and mechanisms for adapting to climate change.  

We would like to thank everybody for their participation on September 7, 2010.

For more conference information, please visit:

http://www.certain.com/system/profile/web/index.cfm?PKwebID=0x1992925e31&varPage=home

Thank you to all our sponsors:

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