By any measure, China’s economy and defense budget are second only to those of the United States. Yet tremendous uncertainties persist concerning China’s military development and national trajectory, and areas with greater information available often conflated misleadingly. Fortunately, larger dynamics elucidate both areas. Particularly since the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China has made rapid progress in aerospace and maritime development, greatly facilitating its military modernization. The weapons and systems that China is developing and deploying fit well with Beijing’s geostrategic priorities. Here, distance matters greatly: after domestic stability and border control, Beijing worries most about its immediate periphery, where its unresolved disputes with neighbors and outstanding claims lie primarily in the maritime direction. Accordingly, while it would vastly prefer pressuring concessions to waging war, China is already capable of threatening potential opponents’ military forces should they intervene in crises over islands and maritime claims in the Yellow, East, and South China Seas and the waterspace and airspace around them. Far from mainland China, by contrast, it remains ill-prepared to protect its own forces from robust attack. Fortunately for Beijing, the non-traditional security focus of its distant operations makes conflict unlikely; remedying their vulnerabilities would be difficult and expensive. Despite these larger patterns, critical unknowns remain concerning China’s economic development, societal priorities, industrial efficiency, and innovation capability. Dr. Erickson will examine these and related issues to probe China’s development trajectory and future place in the international system. 

The views expressed by Dr. Erickson are his alone, and do not represent the policies or estimates of any organization with which he is affiliated.

Dr. Andrew S. Erickson is an Associate Professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College and a core founding member of the department’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI). He is an Associate in Research at Harvard University’s John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies (2008-). Erickson also serves as an expert contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s China Real Time Report (中国实时报), for which he has authored or coauthored 25 articles. In spring 2013, he deployed in the Pacific as a Regional Security Education Program scholar aboard USS Nimitz (CVN68), Carrier Strike Group 11.

Erickson received his Ph.D. and M.A. in international relations and comparative politics from Princeton University and graduated magna cum laude from Amherst College with a B.A. in history and political science. He has studied Mandarin in the Princeton in Beijing program at Beijing Normal University’s College of Chinese Language and Culture and Japanese language, politics, and economics in the year-long Associated Kyoto Program at Doshisha University.

Erickson’s research, which focuses on Asia-Pacific defense, international relations, technology, and resource issues, has been published widely in English- and Chinese-language edited volumes and in such peer-reviewed journals as China Quarterly, Asian Security, Journal of Strategic Studies, Orbis, Asia Policy (forthcoming January 2014), and China Security; as well as in Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, The American Interest, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, China International Strategy Review (published in Chinese-language edition, forthcoming in English-language edition January 2014), and International and Strategic Studies Report (Center for International and Strategic Studies, Peking University). Erickson has also published annotated translations of several Chinese articles on maritime strategy. His publications are available at <www.andrewerickson.com> and <www.chinasignpost.com>.

This event is co-sponsored with CEAS and is part of the China under Xi Jinping series.

Stanford-Sasakawa Peace Foundation New Channels Dialogue 2014

Energy Challenge and Opportunities for the United States and Japan

February 13, 2014

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and Organized by Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) and Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (S-APARC) in Association with U.S.-Japan Council

Japan Studies Program at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University has launched a three-year project from 2013 to create new channels of dialogue between experts and leaders of younger generations from the United States, mostly from the West Coast, and Japan under a name of "New Channels: Reinvigorating U.S.-Japan Relations," with the goal of reinvigorating the bilateral relationship through the dialogue on 21st century challenges faced by both nations, with a grant received from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

The dialogue would be structured to examine the new challenges of the 21st century, in particular, economic growth and employment creation; innovation and entrepreneurship; energy; and East Asian regionalism, including regional security issues, with the aim of developing mutual understanding and constructing a new relationship for cooperation in dealing with 21st century challenges through the dialogue between scholars, entrepreneurs, and policy makers from the two countries. We are hoping that this multi-year initiative will generate a network of trans-Pacific expertise as a vital supplement to existing avenue of communications.

Given the recent dramatic changes in energy environments in both countries, such as shale gas developments in the U.S, and after Fukushima challenges in Japan, this year, as an inaugural year, we will be examining energy issues. Panel discussions open to the public, with the title of "Energy Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. and Japan," will be held on February 13^th, followed by a dialogue among invited participants on 14^th, at Stanford University with the participation of policy makers, business leaders, scholars, and experts from both countries.

In the panel discussions we will examine following issues:

1. Discovery of shale gas deposits in various parts of the world has drastically changed the geopolitics of energy.
2. New technologies for energy production have been creating various challenges to the existing system of energy supply.
3. As emerging economies grow rapidly, they will demand increasing amount of energy. They face a challenge of creating a sustainable and secure energy supply system.
4. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, the call for enhancing safety of nuclear power plants has intensified. While public’s trust in nuclear technology wanes, increasing number of nuclear power plants are built in emerging countries. Nuclear energy policy has become politically contentious.
5. Use of information technology, such as smart grid, is likely to change the ways energy is supplied and distributed.
6. The world has not found an effective international framework for slowing the global warming and securing reliable energy supply to support economic growth.

We are very pleased that we were able to invite quite impressive participants, policy makers, business leaders, scholars and experts from the two countries, who would appear as panelists in the panel discussions on February 13^th.

We expect that through this panel discussion we would be able to define the challenges we are facing, indicate the pathways we should proceed to, and identify the areas for cooperation.

On the following day, February 14^th, we will have the dialogue closed to the public discussing issues and possible cooperation between the U.S. and Japan on energy among invited participants.

We hope to publish a summary of conference presentations and the dialogue discussion after the conference.