Payne Distinguished Lecture Series 2009 Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 2: Spies Collect Data, Analysts Provide Insight
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Thomas Fingar, the 2009 Payne Distinguished Lecturer and former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, gave the second 2009 Payne Distinguished Lecture on Tuesday, May 19, 2009, in the Bechtel Conference Center, 616 Serra Street.
The theme for the 2009-10 series is Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security. Dr. Fingar's second lecture was titled "Spies Collect Data, Analysts Provide Insight."
Dr. Thomas Fingar is Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and, concurrently, as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.
Dr. Fingar served previously as Assistant Secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (2001-2003), Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis (1994-2000), Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-1994), and Chief of the China Division (1986-1989). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including Senior Research Associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in Political Science).
The Payne Lectureship is named for Frank E. Payne and Arthur W. Payne, brothers who gained an appreciation for global problems through their international business operations.
The Payne Distinguished Lecturer is chosen for his or her international reputation as a leader, with an emphasis on visionary thinking; a broad, practical grasp of a given field; and the capacity to clearly articulate an important perspective on the global community and its challenges.
Bechtel Conference Center
Thomas Fingar
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
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tfingar@stanford.edu
Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.
From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.
Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."
China and the World
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Lectures
Research Presentations by Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows (Session 4)
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:
Jun Ding, “Corporate Social Responsibility in State-Owned Enterprises”
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in China’s industrialization achievement and support social service functions in the planning era. After China entered the marketing era, SOEs declined substantially and are in need of reform. Ding believes SOEs should be restructured and that supernumeraries and social services functions should be separated from the primary mission of SOEs into society. Ding’s research emphasizes recommendations found in corporate social responsibility that exists in China.
Mitsutoshi Kumagai, “Impact on Growing On-line Video Services on Pay TV Business Model”
Recently, YouTube is not the only online video service many people enjoy. Big players of traditional broadcasting industries are making strategic approaches in online space. Kumagai’s presentation reviews and assesses those challenges in TV industries and its value as advertisement media.
Tadashi Ogino, “Smart Meters in the United States and Japan”
A smart meter is an advanced electric meter that measures the electricity usage in more detail than a conventional meter. Utility companies and customers can use this data for energy efficiency. A smart meter is a key component for the next generation electric grid. Many smart meters have already been installed in the US, but smart meters are not used in Japan. Ogino analyzes the current situation of smart meter projects in the US and in Japan. He tries to understand why smart meters are not prominent in Japan.
Ayaka Takashima, "Women Entrepreneurs in Japan and the United States”
Recently in Japan, women entrepreneurs have been becoming one of the career choices for women. As an employee of Nissouken, which provides entrepreneurship program, Takashima is trying to reveal women entrepreneurs' habitat and tendency through comparative research.
Philippines Conference Room
Jun Ding
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, PetroChina
Speaker
Mitsutoshi Kumagai
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Sumitomo Corporation
Speaker
Tadashi Ogino
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Mitsubishi Electric
Speaker
Ayaka Takashima
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Nissoken
Speaker
Seminars
A New Era in Cross-Strait Relations--Challenges, Opportunities, and Constraints
The symposium will bring together scholars and current and former government officials from Taiwan, China, and US to take stock of cross-strait relations over the past decade. It will also assess the future development of cross-strait interactions from different angles including economic, political, and security perspectives.
Friday, May 29, 2009 |
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8:15 am to 8:45 am |
Registration & Reception |
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8:45 am to 9:00 am |
Introduction by Larry Diamond, Director of CDDRL; Senior Fellow of Hoover Institution and FSI, Stanford University |
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9:00 am to 10:30 am |
Session I: Cross-Strait Relations under the DPP Administration Moderator: Larry Diamond, Director of CDDRL; Senior Fellow of Hoover Institution and FSI, Stanford University Speakers:
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10:30 am to 10:50 am |
Break |
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10:50 am to 12:15 pm |
Session II: Recent Development under the KMT Administration Moderator: Ramon Myers, Senior Fellow Emeritus of Hoover Institution, Stanford University Speakers:
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12:15 pm to 1:30 pm |
Lunch |
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1:30 pm to 3:00 pm |
Session III: Economic Dimension of Cross-Strait Relations Moderator: Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow of Hoover Institution; Emeritus Director, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University Speakers:
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3:00 pm to 3:20 pm |
Break |
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3:20 pm to 4:45 pm |
Session IV: Taiwan's Domestic Politics and Cross-Strait Relations Moderator: Eric Yu, Research Fellow & Program Manager, CDDRL, Stanford University Speakers:
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Saturday, May 30, 2009 |
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| 8:30 am to 9:00 am | Continental Breakfast |
| 9:00 am to 10:30 am |
Session V: Taiwan's Security and Cross-Strait Relations Moderator: Larry Diamond, Director of CDDRL; Senior Fellow of Hoover Institution and FSI, Stanford University Speakers:
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| 10:30 am to 10:50 am | Break |
| 10:50 am to 12:30 pm |
Session VI: Impact of Cross-Strait Exchanges on Mainland China Moderator: TJ Cheng, Class of 1935 Professor of Political Science, College of William and Mary Speakers:
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| 12:30 pm to 1:30 pm | Lunch |
| 1:30 pm to 3:00 pm | Roundtable Conclusion |
Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center
Symposiums
Business Development of High End Molecular and Genetic Testing Services in the US Market
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This presentation will discuss the current clinical diagnostic business scenario and the business opportunities available with a focus on the U.S. market.
About the speaker:
Sivaraman Vasudevan is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2008-09. Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he has been working for Reliance Life Sciences in Bangalore, India as Regional Head in charge of sales opoerations for Eastern and Southern parts of India. His job responsibilities include developing business plans, implementing strategies and achieving sales targets. Additionally, he is part of an elite corporate team in developing national and regional marketing strategies.
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
Sivaraman Vasudevan
Speaker
Seminars
Thailand's Universal Coverage System and Preliminary Evaluation of its Success
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Thailand introduced a universal coverage program in 2001. This program is commonly known as a "30 Baht Health Reform," adding coverage for nearly 14 million more people. This presentation will give an overview of the 30 Baht Health Reform including its main features and evolution, as well as a preliminary evaluation of its success. The talk will mostly be based on a paper entitled "Early Results from Thailand's 30 Baht Universal Health Reform - Something to Smile About," published in Health Affairs.
Kannika Damrongplasit is currently the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of California at Los Angeles and RAND Corporation. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Southern California. Her fields of interest are in program evaluation, applied econometrics, health economics and applied microeconomics. She has published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Health Affairs, and Singapore Economic Review. In January 2010, she will assume an assistant professor position at the Department of Economics, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
Philippines Conference Room
Kannika Damrongplasit
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Speaker
University of California at Los Angeles and RAND Corporation
Seminars