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Abstract: In 1992, the United States stood at the pinnacle of world power and Americans were confident that a new era of peace and prosperity was at hand. Twenty-five years later, those hopes have been dashed. Relations with Russia and China have soured, the European Union is wobbling, democracy is in retreat, and the United States is stuck in costly and pointless wars.

The root of this dismal record is the foreign policy elite’s stubborn commitment to a strategy of “liberal hegemony.” Since the end of the Cold War, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to use U.S. power to spread democracy, and other liberal values around the world. This strategy was doomed to fail, but its proponents elite were never held accountable and kept repeating the same mistakes. 

Donald Trump won the presidency promising to end these misguided policies, but his erratic style of governing and flawed grasp of world politics have made a bad situation worse. The best alternative is a return to a strategy of “offshore balancing,” eschewing regime change, nation-building, and other forms of global social engineering.  This long-overdue shift will require creating a foreign policy elite with a more realistic view of American power. 

 

Speaker Bio: Stephen M. Walt is Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is a contributing editor at Foreign Policy, co-editor of the Cornell Studies in Security Affairs, and was elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in May 200.  He received the ISA’s Distinguished Senior Scholar award in 2014.  His writings include The Origins of Alliances (1987) Revolution and War (1996), Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy, and The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (co-authored with John J. Mearsheimer, 2007).  His latest book is The Hell of Good Intentions: America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy (2018).

Stephen Walt Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School
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With the looming great power competitions, Dr. Huang will discuss the concept of “free and open Indo-Pacific,” China’s rapid expansion of economic and military sphere of influence, and a critical examination of Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” agenda from Taiwan’s perspectives. He will then inform and explain Taiwan’s current national security strategy, defense policy and the military modernization directions. Lastly, Dr. Huang will address current issues across the Taiwan Strait and the prospect of presidential elections in 2020.

SPEAKER:
Dr. Alexander C. Huang, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies

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Alexander C. Huang

BIO:
Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang is a professor and has been director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and the Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University, Taiwan. He is also a senior associate at CSIS with the Freeman Chair in China Studies. Dr. Huang previously served in the Taiwan government as deputy minister of the Mainland Affairs Council and has worked closely with consecutive governments on foreign and security policy matters. He spent nearly 15 years in the United States before moving back to Taiwan in 2000. He was a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS (1999–2000) and a visiting fellow in the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution (1998–1999). In addition, he taught Chinese foreign policy and U.S. security policy at the University of Maryland at College Park (1998–2000). Between 1993 and 1998, he was a senior consultant on political and security affairs for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, D.C. 

Dr. Huang received his master’s degree from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and his doctorate from the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He specializes in Asian and Chinese foreign and security affairs and is a nationally syndicated columnist for the United Daily, the Journalist, and Want China News in Taiwan. He has also been frequently interviewed by local and international media on security, foreign, defense, and cross-strait affairs. As a leading specialist in war-gaming, Dr. Huang has designed and directed more than 30 senior-level interagency political-military war games for the Taiwan government.
Philippines Conference Room Encina Hall, 3rd Floor 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305
Alexander Huang <i>Senior Associate (Non-resident), Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies</i>
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From Within and Without: Taiwan’s New Security Challenges

Since 2016, Beijing’s pressure campaign on Taiwan has threatened the island’s international space and domestic tranquility. Few, if any, areas of politics have gone untouched. Whether through attempts to pick off Taiwan’s diplomatic partners or lure away the island’s talent, the full range of PRC statecraft is on display. Taiwan’s political dynamics — especially the solidification of Taiwanese identity and collapse of the Kuomintang — also appear to have driven an aggressive shift in Beijing’s approach to political influence operations to include pressure on international companies. The shift in intensity and tactics raises important questions about Taiwan’s future and dealing with an increasingly powerful PRC.

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Peter Matis
Peter Mattis is a Research Fellow in China Studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks. He was a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation, where he also served as editor of the foundation’s China Brief, a biweekly electronic journal on greater China, from 2011 to 2013. Mr. Mattis also worked as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. He received his M.A. in Security Studies from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and earned B.A.s in Political Science and Asian Studies from the University of Washington in Seattle. Mr. Mattis’s analysis of China and intelligence has appeared in The National Interest, China Brief, Sydney Morning Herald, The Hill, Jane’s Intelligence Review, Taipei Times, the East-West Center’s Asia-Pacific Bulletin, The Diplomat, War on the Rocks, the Asia Society’s ChinaFile, Cipher Brief, the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, and Studies in Intelligence.  Mr. Mattis is the author of Analyzing the Chinese Military: A Review Essay and Resource Guide on the People’s Liberation Army (2015) and co-author of a forthcoming handbook on Chinese intelligence.

Peter Mattis <i>Research Fellow, China Studies, at Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation</i>
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Immediate denuclearization of North Korea is dangerous to both North Korean and American interests, say Stanford scholars in a new research report. Instead, they advocate for phased denuclearization to take place over 10 years or more, allowing the United States to reduce the greatest risks first and address the manageable risks over time.

Immediate denuclearization of North Korea is unrealistic, said Stanford scholars in an in-depth report released by the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC).
 
Instead, denuclearization should be phased over a 10-year period to allow the United States to reduce and manage risks, said Siegfried Hecker, who authored the study with his research assistant Elliot Serbin and Robert Carlin, a visiting scholar at CISAC.
 
In the report, the scholars laid out a “roadmap” for denuclearization, recommending what they call a “halt, roll back and eliminate” approach. Their advice – which includes informative color charts and detailed, qualitative analysis – emerged from a longer-term project about the nuclear history of North Korea between 1992 and 2017.
 
According to the research, the most important steps toward denuclearization include halting nuclear tests, stopping intermediate or long-range missile tests, stopping the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and banning all export of nuclear weapons, materials or technologies to North Korea.
 
“The roadmap lays out a reasonable timeline for denuclearization, but politics may delay final denuclearization as much as 15 years,” said Hecker, who worked at the Los Alamos National Laboratory for almost two decades, where he served as its directors for 11 of those years. He joined CISAC as a senior fellow in 2005.
 
Building trust and interdependence
In the short term, North Korea and the United States should take steps to build trust and interdependence, which the researchers believe are pivotal for a viable long-term solution like complete demilitarization of North Korea’s nuclear program. North Korea, they argue, will likely want to retain some parts of its nuclear program as a hedge should any potential agreement fall apart. This is a manageable risk, they said.
 
The scholars also encourage Pyongyang to front-load its concrete plan towards  permanent nuclear dismantlement to make a phased approach more appealing to the US administration. This would include actions like halting nuclear and missile tests for intercontinental ballistic missiles.
 
According to Hecker, North Korea’s recent demolition of its nuclear test site is a significant step in that direction.
 
“The so-called ‘Libya model’ – complete and immediate denuclearization – is not a viable solution,” Hecker said. “Our approach leaves each party with a manageable level of risk. Even though it takes longer, it is safer for the world.”
 
Hecker also encouraged the US to recognize North Korea’s desire for civilian programs, including energy production, the use of radioactive substances in medical research, diagnosis and treatment, and a peaceful space program. These types of civilian programs can also foster opportunities for a collaborative relationship between the United States and North Korea. Further, increased cooperation –including with South Korea – can help make efforts for verification and monitoring with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) more reliable. The verification process that will confirm to what extent North Korea dismantles and destroys its military nuclear program is a big issue for negotiations, the scholars said.
 
Recent reconciliation
Critically, the researchers note that recent détente between North Korea and South Korea provides a window of opportunity to accomplish denuclearization – and that the US should take advantage of that window smartly. They  said they hope that the risk-management approach outlined in the report can maximize chances for a successful agreement.
 
“In the past, the US has missed opportunities to manage incremental risk,” Hecker said. “Now is the time to pay attention to that history and be prepared to implement a risk-management approach to denuclearization.”
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Siegfried Hecker meets with members of North Korea’s nuclear scientific community during a visit to Yongbyon.
Siegfried Hecker meets with members of North Korea’s nuclear scientific community during a visit to Yongbyon.
Courtesy Siegfried Hecker
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616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
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chin_hao_huang.jpg Ph.D.
Chin-Hao Huang joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Center as the Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Contemporary Southeast Asia from Yale-NUS College where he is assistant professor of political science. His research interests focus on the international relations of East Asia, Southeast Asian politics, and Chinese foreign policy. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, Huang will carry out research on the conditions under which the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is more or less likely to achieve cooperation from external major powers like China, particularly in such regional flashpoints as the South China Sea. Huang’s research has been published in The China QuarterlyThe China Journal, and International Peacekeeping, and in edited volumes through Oxford University Press and Routledge, among others. He received the American Political Science Association (APSA) Foreign Policy Section Best Paper Award (2014) for his research on China’s compliance behavior in multilateral security institutions. His book manuscript under preparation for review is on Power, Restraint, and China’s Rise and explains how, when, and why Chinese foreign policy decision-makers exercise restraint in international security. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Southern California and BS with honors from Georgetown University.  chinhao.huang@yale-nus.edu.sgT (US): (765) 464.9578T (Singapore): +65.8661.4050
Visiting Scholar
2018-2019 Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Contemporary Southeast Asia
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After his secret meeting with President Xi Jinping of China in March, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is set to meet with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on April 27 at Peace House, south of the military demarcation line. This would make Kim Jong-un the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea since the Korean War. A panel of Korea experts will engage in discussion about outcomes and implications of this historic summit.

Panelists:

Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein APARC; Senior Fellow at FSI; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

Kathleen Stephens, William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC; former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea

Philip Yun, Executive Director and Chief Operation Officer of Ploughshares Fund; former vice president at The Asia Foundation

Yong Suk Lee (moderator), Deputy Director of Korea Program, Shorenstein APARC; SK Center Fellow at FSI, Stanford University

 

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The Taiwan Relations Act, along with the three U.S.-China joint communiques, remains the foundation for U.S. policy toward, and engagement with, Taiwan.  Through this framework, the United States and Taiwan have built a comprehensive, durable, and mutually beneficial partnership, grounded in shared interests and values.  Ambassador Moriarty, Chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, will review the current state of this unique, “unofficial” relationship in the security, economic, and people-to-people realms.  He will discuss the U.S. government’s support for Taiwan’s efforts to participate in and contribute to the international community.  At this time of increased tensions between the PRC and Taiwan, Ambassador Moriarty will underscore the United States’ longstanding interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, opposition to unilateral attempts to change the status quo, and insistence on the peaceful resolution of differences.


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Moriarty
Ambassador (ret) James F. Moriarty assumed his position as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) in October 2016. AIT is a non-profit, private corporation established pursuant to the Taiwan Relations Act to manage the U.S. unofficial relationship with Taiwan. The AIT Chairman participates in policy-level discussions on Taiwan. He represents the Administration in periodic visits to Taiwan and in meetings with Taiwan representatives in the United States.

Ambassador Moriarty served as Special Assistant to the President of the United States and Senior Director for Asia at the National Security Council (2002-2004). In that role, he advised the President and coordinated U.S. policy on East Asia, Southeast Asia, the Pacific, and South Asia. Moriarty served previously as Director for China Affairs at the National Security Council (2001-2002). He led the political sections at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing (1998-2001) and the American Institute in Taiwan (1995-1998). In Beijing, he helped negotiate agreements that put to rest tensions resulting from the U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade and the collision of a Chinese fighter jet with a U.S. EP3. In Taipei, he helped create the template for the United States to work with a democratically-elected Taiwan administration. Moriarty was U.S. ambassador to Bangladesh (2008-2011) and Nepal (2004-2007).

Since retiring from the Foreign Service in 2011, Ambassador Moriarty has worked in the private sector and as an independent consultant. He has spoken on U.S.-Asia relations, including at universities, in public fora, and before U.S. Congressional committees. Living in Jakarta in 2013-2014, Ambassador Moriarty set up PROGRESS, a U.S. Government project to build capacity in ASEAN’s political/security and social/cultural communities. Since 2016, Ambassador Moriarty has been the Country Director for the Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety, a coalition of North American importers of ready-made garments. As Country Director, Moriarty provides oversight and strategic guidance to a $50-million initiative that is building a sustainable culture of worker safety in Bangladesh.

 

James F. Moriarty <i>Chairman, American Institute in Taiwan</i>
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"Moon's proposal of a trilateral summit between the two Koreas and the United States, undermining China's influence, turned out to be nothing more than a pipe dream," said researchers at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in a recently published article. "The series of summits that began with Kim's visit to Beijing should lead to Four Party Talks involving the two Koreas, the United States, and China."

The full article in The Diplomat is available here.

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President Moon of South Korea meeting at Cheong Wa Dae with Mr. Kim Yong-nam of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea
Cheong Wa Dae
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The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) commenced operations on January 16, 2016. The Bank has approved 24 projects totaling US$4.26 billion to date, and its approved membership totals 84 with 64 members having completed all membership requirements and 20 prospective members in the process of finalizing their membership.
 
President Jin Liqun will give his assessment of the bank’s first two years – its accomplishments and challenges – and the future direction of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. What is the potential impact of AIIB’s financing for regional infrastructure, trade connectivity and economic relations? How can multilateral institutions and various stakeholders best address the US$26 trillion infrastructure gap (from 2016 to 2030) in Asia? How is the AIIB distinguishing itself from other multilateral development banks like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank? What is the AIIB’s commitment and contributions toward global economic governance and best international practices?


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Jin Liqun
Jin Liqun is the inaugural President and Chair of the Board of Directors of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Before being elected as the Bank’s first president, he served as Secretary-General of the Multilateral Interim Secretariat (MIS) tasked with establishing AIIB. Immediately prior to assuming the role of Secretary-General of the MIS, he was Chair of China International Capital Corporation Limited, China’s first joint-venture investment bank. From 2008 to 2013, he served as Chair of the Supervisory Board, China Investment Corporation. From 2009 to 2012, he served as Deputy Chair then subsequently as Chair of the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds. From 2003 to 2008, Jin was Vice President, and then Ranking Vice President, of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), in charge of programs for South, Central and West Asia and private sector operations. He joined the Ministry of Finance in 1980, where he served as Director General and Assistant Minister before becoming Vice Minister in 1998. He was also a Member of the State Monetary Policy Committee. Earlier in his career, he served as Alternate Executive Director for China at the World Bank and at the Global Environment Facility as well as Alternate Governor for China at ADB. Jin holds a master’s degree in English Literature from Beijing Institute of Foreign Languages (now Beijing Foreign Studies University). He was also a Hubert Humphrey Fellow in the Economics Graduate Program at Boston University from 1987 to 1988. Jin is a national of the People’s Republic of China.


 

Mackenzie Room

Jen-Hsun Huang Engineering Building, 3rd Floor

475 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305

Jin Liqun <i>President and Chair, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</i>
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