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Between 2009 and 2010, major new developments in and around the Korean Peninsula profoundly affected the context of U.S.-South Korean relations. The global economy, led by Northeast Asia, began slowly to recover from the economic recession that followed the U.S. financial crisis. As China’s economy continued its dramatic development, East Asian countries strengthened the architecture of regional cooperation. The international community focused increasingly on multilateral problems such as climate change and environmental issues. The United States maintained its focus on terrorism and the Middle East and South Asia. President Obama initiated a global nonproliferation campaign, but little progress was made in curbing the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. 

The members of the New Beginnings policy study group on U.S.-Korean relations offer the following major recommendations to the Obama administration:

  • Seek immediate Congressional approval of the KORUS FTA
  • Bolster alliance security arrangements, and review the U.S.-Korean agreement on the transfer of wartime operational control
  • Increase international pressure on North Korea to engage seriously in Six Party Talks on ending its nuclear weapons program, and strengthen international measures against North Korean proliferation
  • Closely coordinate with the ROK a strong and effective bilateral and international response to the Cheonan sinking, depending on the findings of the investigation
  • Highlight the human rights situation in North Korea; facilitate increased private exchanges with North Korea; and press China to take a humanitarian approach to North Korean refugees on its territory
  • Identify additional opportunities for U.S.-South Korean global cooperation 
  • Increase support for the Work, English Study and Travel (WEST) student exchange program, and seek full Congressional funding for a new U.S. embassy chancery and residential facilities in Seoul. 
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Shorenstein APARC
Authors
Robert Carlin
Gi-Wook Shin
Daniel C. Sneider
David Straub
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Although China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China’s emissions on a per capita basis are significantly lower than those of the U.S.: in 2005, per capita emissions in China were 5.5 metric tons—much less than the U.S. (23.5 metric tons per capita), and also lower than the world average of 7.03 metric tons. China’s total GHG emissions were 7,234.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2005, 15.4 percent of which came from the agricultural sector. By comparison, total U.S. emissions were 6,931.4 million tCO2e, 6.4 percent of which were from agriculture. Within China’s agriculture sector, 54.5 percent of emissions come from nitrous oxide, and 45.5 percent come from methane, which is the opposite of the composition of global GHG emissions from agriculture.

Economic studies show that climate change will affect not only agricultural production, but also agricultural prices, trade and food self-sufficiency. The research presented here indicates that producer responses to these climate- induced shocks will lessen the impacts of climate change on agricultural production compared to the effects predicted by many natural scientists. This study projects the impacts of climate change on China’s agricultural sector under the A2 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which assumes a heterogeneous world with continuous population growth and regionally-oriented economic growth. Depending on the assumptions used related to CO2 fertilization, in 2030 the projected impacts of climate change on grain production range from -4 percent to +6 percent, and the effects on crop prices range from -12 percent to +18 percent. The change in relative prices in domestic and international markets will in turn impact trade flows of all commodities. The magnitude of the impact on grain trade in China will equal about 2 to 3 percent of domestic consumption. According to our analysis, trade can and should be used to help China mitigate the impacts of climate change; however, the overall impact on China’s grain self-sufficiency is moderate because the changes in trade account for only a small share of China’s total demand.

The effect of climate change on rural incomes in China is complicated. The analysis shows that the average impact of higher temperatures on crop net revenue is negative, but this can be partially offset by income gains resulting from an expected increase in precipitation. Moreover, the effects of climate change on farmers will vary depending on the production methods used. Rain-fed farmers will be more vulnerable to temperature increases than irrigated farmers, and the impact of climate change on crop net revenue varies by season and by region.

In recent years, China has made tangible progress on the implementation of adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Efforts have been made to increase public investment in climate change research, and special funding has been allocated to adaptation issues. An experiment with insurance policies and increased public investment in research are just two examples of climate adaptation measures. Beyond government initiatives, farmers have implemented their own adaptation strategies, such as changing cropping patterns, increasing investment in irrigation infrastructure, using water saving technologies and planting new crop varieties to increase resistance to climatic shocks.

China faces several challenges, however, as it seeks to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. Fertilizers are a major component of nitrous oxide emissions, and recent studies indicate that overuse of fertilizer has become a significant contributor to water pollution. Application rates in China are well above world averages for many crops; fields are so saturated with fertilizer that nutrients are lost because crops cannot absorb any more. Changing fertilizer application practices will be no easy task. Many farmers also work outside of agriculture to supplement their income and opt for current methods because they are less time intensive.

In addition, the expansion of irrigated cropland has contributed to the depletion of China’s water table and rivers, particularly in areas of northern China. Water scarcity is increasing and will constrain climate change mitigation strategies for some farmers. One of the main policy/research issues—as well as challenges for farm households—will be to determine how to increase water use efficiency.

Despite the sizeable amount of greenhouse gases emitted by and the environmental impact of China’s agriculture sector, it also offers important and efficient mitigation opportunities. To combat low fertilizer use efficiency in China, the government in recent years has begun promoting technology aimed at calibrating fertilizer dosages according to the characteristics of soil. In addition, conservation tillage (CT) has been considered as a potential way to create carbon sinks. Over the last decade, China’s government has promoted the adoption of CT and established demonstration pilot projects in more than 10 provinces. Finally, extending intermittent irrigation and adopting new seed varieties for paddy fields are also strategies that have been supported and promoted as part of the effort to reduce GHG emissions.

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International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development and the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council
Authors
Scott Rozelle

The symposium will bring together scholars and current and former government officials from Taiwan, China, and US to take stock of cross-strait relations over the past decade. It will also assess the future development of cross-strait interactions from different angles including economic, political, and security perspectives.

Friday, May 28, 2010

8:00 am to 8:30 am

Registration & Reception
Continental Breakfast

8:30 am to 8:40 am

Introduction Larry Diamond, Director of CDDRL; Senior Fellow of Hoover Institution and FSI, Stanford University

8:40 am to 10:15 am

Session I: What Can We Learn from History: Looking Back on the Evolution of U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

Chair: Hung-mao Tien, President of the Institute for National Policy Research, Taiwan

Speakers:

  • Steve Goldstein, Sophia Smith Professor of Government, Smith College, and Associate, Asia Center, Harvard University
  • Tom Christensen, Professor of Politics and International Affairs and Director of the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program, Princeton University
  • Richard Bush, Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institute

10:15 am to 10:30 am

Break

10:30 am to 12:00 pm

Session II: Cross-Strait Economic and Social Ties: Current Trends, and What Will They Look Like in 2025

Chair: Yun-han Chu, Distinguished Fellow of the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica; Professor of Political Science, National Taiwan University

Speakers:

  • Cheng-shu Kao, Professor of Sociology, Tung-hai University, Taiwan
  • Charles Kao, Founder and Chairman, Commonwealth Publishing Group, Taiwan

Noon to 1:30 pm

Luncheon Address and Discussion—“Assessing the First Two Years of the Ma Ying-jeou Presidency: A Conversation with Dr. Su Chi,” former secretary-general of the National Security Council, Republic of China (Taiwan)

 

1:45 pm to 3:15 pm

Session III: The Changing Military Balance: Current Trends and Future Prospects

Chair: Larry Diamond, Director, CDDRL

Speakers:

  • Admiral (Ret.) Eric McVadon, Director, Asia-Pacific Studies, Institute of Foreign Policy Analysis, Cambridge MA, and Washington DC
  • Chong-Pin Lin, Professor of Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University; Former Deputy Minister of Defense of ROC
  • Litai Xue, Research Associate, APARC, Stanford University

3:15 pm to 3:30 pm

Break

3:30 pm to 5:00 pm

Session IV: What kind of (Super) Power will China be in 2025? Political Scenarios and Implications for China’s Foreign Policy and Taiwan Policy

Chair: Tom Fingar, the Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow and Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Speakers:

  • Mike Lampton, Dean of Faculty, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and Professor of Chinese Studies, Johns Hopkins University
  • Suisheng Zhao, Professor and Executive Director of the Center for China-US Cooperation at the Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver

 

Saturday, May 29, 2010

8:30 am to 9:00 am

Continental Breakfast

9:00 am to 10:40 am

Session V: How will Taiwan (Re)Define Itself Politically, Economically and Internationally by 2025

Chair: Jean Oi, William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics, and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Speakers:

  • Yun-han Chu, Distinguished Fellow of the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica; Professor of Political Science, National Taiwan University; President of the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation for International Scholarly Exchange
  • Shelley Rigger, Brown Associate Professor of East Sian Politics, and coordinator of Asian Studies, Davidson College
  • Daniel Da-nien Liu, Research Fellow, Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, Taiwan
  • Richard Bush, Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institute

10:40 am to 11:00 am

Break

11:00 am to 12:40 pm

Session VI: How will the U.S. Relate to China’s Rising Power and Taiwan’s Rising Vulnerability

Chair: Larry Diamond, Director, CDDRL

Speakers:

  • Tom Fingar, the Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow and Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
  • Su Chi, former secretary-general of the National Security Council, Republic of China (Taiwan)

12:40 pm to 1:45 pm

Lunch

1:45 pm to 3:15 pm

Roundtable Conclusion

Bechtel Conference Center

Symposiums
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Bill Gates is the Co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, where he shapes and approves foundation strategies, reviews results, advocates for the foundation’s issues and helps set overall direction of the organization. Gates is the founder and chairman of Microsoft Corporation, a worldwide leader in software, services, and solutions that help people and businesses realize their full potential. In Gates’ last full year with the company, 2007, Microsoft had revenues of $51 billion, employed more than 78,000 people in 105 countries and regions, and invested $7.1 billion in research and development, as part of its commitment to make it easier, more cost-effective and enjoyable for people to use computers.

In July 2008, Gates transitioned out of his day to day role in the company to spend more time on his work with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Guided by the belief that every life has equal value, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation works to help all people lead healthy, productive lives. In developing countries, the foundation focuses on improving people’s health and lifting them out of hunger and extreme poverty. In the United States, the foundation seeks to ensure that all people, especially those with the fewest resources, have access to opportunities they need to succeed in school and life.

Through the foundation, Gates and his wife Melinda support philanthropic initiatives in the areas of global development, global health, and education, in the hope that in the 21st century, advances in these critical areas will be available for all people. With assets of some $34 billion, the Gates Foundation has made grant commitments of $21 billion since inception. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has committed more than $3.6 billion to organizations working in global health, with a focus on expanding childhood immunization ($1.5 billion), eradicating polio ($355 million), and combating malaria($287 million). In 2010, Gates pledged to spend more than $10 billion to develop and deliver new vaccines over the next decade. The foundation has also committed more than $2 billion to improving educational opportunities.

Bechtel Conference Center

Bill Gates Co-chair, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation Speaker
Lectures
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Zalmay Khalilzad is President and CEO of Khalilzad Associates LLC, an international advisory firm. He serves as a Counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and sits on the Boards of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), America Abroad Media (AAM), the RAND Corporation's Middle East Studies Center, the American University of Iraq in Suleymania (AUIS), and the American University of Afghanistan (AUAF).

Dr. Khalilzad served as U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations from 2007-2009, a post for which he was unanimously confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Prior to that position, he spent more than two years in Baghdad as U.S. Ambassador to Iraq
(2005-2007).

He previously served as U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (2003-2005), Special Presidential Envoy to Afghanistan (2001-2003), and Special Presidential Envoy and Ambassador at Large for Free Iraqis (2002-2003).

Dr. Khalilzad held a series of high level positions at the National Security Council and in the White House between 2001 and 2003, including Special Assistant to the President for Islamic Outreach and Southwest Asia Initiatives, and Special Assistant for Southwest Asia, Near East, and North African Affairs. He is the recipient of three Distinguished Public Service Medals, one each from three consecutive Secretaries of Defense.

Between 1993 and 1999, he was Director of the Strategy, Doctrine and Force Structure program for RAND's Project Air Force. At RAND, he also founded the Center for Middle Eastern Studies.

Dr. Khalilzad previously served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning from 1990 to 1992. He served on the State Department's Policy Planning Staff and as Special Advisor to the Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs from 1985 to 1989.

Earlier in his career, he was an associate professor at the University of California at San Diego and an assistant professor of Political Science at Columbia University. Ambassador Khalilzad earned his Bachelor's and Master's degrees from the American University of Beirut, Lebanon, as well as a PhD from the University of Chicago. He regularly appears on U.S. and foreign media outlets to share his foreign policy expertise.

Bechtel Conference Center

The Honorable Zalmay Khalilzad Former Ambassador to the United Nations, Iraq, and Afghanistan Speaker
Lectures
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José Zalaquett is a Chilean lawyer and legal scholar known for his work defending human rights in Chile during the regime of General Pinochet. During Chile's transition to democracy, he served on the National Truth and Reconciliation Commission where he investigated and prosecuted human rights violations committed by the military regime. He has served as President of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and as the head of the International Executive Committee of Amnesty International. He currently co-directs the Human Rights Centre at the University of Chile, serves on the board of the International Centre for Transitional Justice, and is a member of the International Commission of Jurists. He has been awarded UNESCO's Prize for Human Rights Education and Chile's National Prize for Humanities and Social Sciences.

Video recording of the event is available here.

Event co-sponsored by the Stanford International Law Society, Departments of English, History, and Comparative Literature; the Program in Modern Thought and Literature; the Center for African Studies; the Stanford Humanities Center; and the Center for South Asia

History, Memory, and Reconciliation futureofmemory.stanford.edu is sponsored by the Research Unit in the Division of Literatures, Cultures, and Languages at Stanford University.

Stanford Law School
Rm 280A

Jose Zalaquett Professor Speaker Universidad de Chile

Department of Political Science
Encina Hall
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6044

(650) 724-4166 (650) 724-2996
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Professor of Political Science
Gildred Professor of Latin American Studies
William and Gretchen Kimball University Fellow
Senior Research Scholar (by courtesty) of FSI/CDDRL
terrykarl.png MA, PhD

Professor Karl has published widely on comparative politics and international relations, with special emphasis on the politics of oil-exporting countries, transitions to democracy, problems of inequality, the global politics of human rights, and the resolution of civil wars. Her works on oil, human rights and democracy include The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States (University of California Press, 1998), honored as one of the two best books on Latin America by the Latin American Studies Association, the Bottom of the Barrel: Africa's Oil Boom and the Poor (2004 with Ian Gary), the forthcoming New and Old Oil Wars (with Mary Kaldor and Yahia Said), and the forthcoming Overcoming the Resource Curse (with Joseph Stiglitz, Jeffrey Sachs et al). She has also co-authored Limits of Competition (MIT Press, 1996), winner of the Twelve Stars Environmental Prize from the European Community. Karl has published extensively on comparative democratization, ending civil wars in Central America, and political economy. She has conducted field research throughout Latin America, West Africa and Eastern Europe. Her work has been translated into 15 languages.

Karl has a strong interest in U.S. foreign policy and has prepared expert testimony for the U.S. Congress, the Supreme Court, and the United Nations. She served as an advisor to chief U.N. peace negotiators in El Salvador and Guatemala and monitored elections for the United Nations. She accompanied numerous congressional delegations to Central America, lectured frequently before officials of the Department of State, Defense, and the Agency for International Development, and served as an adviser to the Chairman of the House Sub-Committee on Western Hemisphere Affairs of the United States Congress. Karl appears frequently in national and local media. Her most recent opinion piece was published in 25 countries.

Karl has been an expert witness in major human rights and war crimes trials in the United States that have set important legal precedents, most notably the first jury verdict in U.S. history against military commanders for murder and torture under the doctrine of command responsibility and the first jury verdict in U.S. history finding commanders responsible for "crimes against humanity" under the doctrine of command responsibility. In January 2006, her testimony formed the basis for a landmark victory for human rights on the statute of limitations issue. Her testimonies regarding political asylum have been presented to the U.S. Supreme Court and U.S. Circuit courts. She has written over 250 affidavits for political asylum, and she has prepared testimony for the U.S. Attorney General on the extension of temporary protected status for Salvadorans in the United States and the conditions of unaccompanied minors in U.S. custody. As a result of her human rights work, she received the Doctor of Humane Letters, honoris causa from the University of San Francisco in 2005.

Professor Karl has been recognized for "exceptional teaching throughout her career," resulting in her appointment as the William R. and Gretchen Kimball University Fellowship. She has also won the Dean's Award for Excellence in Teaching (1989), the Allan V. Cox Medal for Faculty Excellence Fostering Undergraduate Research (1994), and the Walter J. Gores Award for Excellence in Graduate and Undergraduate Teaching (1997), the University's highest academic prize. Karl served as director of Stanford's Center for Latin American Studies from 1990-2001, was praised by the president of Stanford for elevating the Center for Latin American Studies to "unprecedented levels of intelligent, dynamic, cross-disciplinary activity and public service in literature, arts, social sciences, and professions." In 1997 she was awarded the Rio Branco Prize by the President of Brazil, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in recognition for her service in fostering academic relations between the United States and Latin America.

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Terry L. Karl Professor, Political Science, Stanford Commentator
James Campbell Professor, History, Stanford Commentator
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The release last week of the Obama administration's Nuclear Posture Review brings long overdue attention to the vital issue of U.S. strategic posture. Issues raised in the NPR and START have reinvigorated a crucial national nuclear dialogue that has been missing.

As the chairman and vice chairman of Congress's bipartisan Strategic Posture Commission, which issued its report last May, we have watched with great interest the administration's steady progress this past year on its Nuclear Posture Review and the START negotiations.

Themes from our report run through the Nuclear Posture Review and are embodied in the new START agreement. While debate and disagreement must be part of the crossfire in this renewed nuclear dialogue, we want to emphasize important dimensions of both the Posture Review and START treaty that figure prominently in our bipartisan report.

Now that the NPR is completed, we see that it is compatible with our recommendations. The review gives a comprehensive and pragmatic plan for reducing nuclear risks to the United States. We believe it offers a bipartisan path forward - while allowing for healthy disagreements on specific issues.

And it incorporates many of our points - such as pursuing a quick and modest reduction of nuclear weapons with Russia and sustaining the nuclear triad of land-based ICBMs, sea-based SLBMs and bombers. It also recognizes that nuclear weapons safeguarded U.S. security during the Cold War by deterring attack and that we will need them for deterrence in the foreseeable future, as long as others also possess them.

We also see that the NPR puts special emphasis, as our report recommended, on improving the nation's complex nuclear infrastructure and enhancing programs to recruit and keep the nation's best scientific minds. The administration's commitment to increase investment in our national laboratories also ensures that they continue their important role in sustaining a safe, secure and effective nuclear arsenal and in solving many other problems facing the nation.

The review is correct to make preventing nuclear terrorism and proliferation the top priority, while also seeking to strengthen deterrence and to reassure U.S. allies and recognizing the importance of strategic stability with Russia and an emerging China. Our commission reached the same conclusions.

The NPR's changes in U.S. declaratory policy - especially the assurance that Washington "will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear parties to the Nonproliferation Treaty that are in compliance with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations" - go beyond our recommendation that the U.S. retain "calculated ambiguity."

It is, however, a sensible variation on a theme that the U.S. should support nonproliferation while preserving deterrence for itself and its allies.

We also note that the NPR chose, as we advised, to avoid adopting a "no first use" policy for nuclear weapons while narrowing the scope of possible first use to "extreme circumstances" - language that was in our bipartisan report.

We believe that the substantial edge the U.S. has developed in conventional military capabilities, which the NPR notes, permits this country to sharply reduce reliance on nuclear weapons. But we caution those who make light of this major U.S. strategic advantage and its implications.

We support the NPR's call for the U.S. not to develop new nuclear weapons now. Our report similarly called for a case-by-case approach to extending the life of today's warheads. And we agree that the focus should be on safety, security and reliability - not developing new military capabilities.

The NPR echoes our call to negotiate a worldwide end to the production of new fissile materials - the key ingredients of nuclear weapons.

Our final report strongly endorsed the U.S. deterrence policy to cover our allies and partners with the U.S. nuclear umbrella - an objective the NPR also embraces.

The report suggested deploying proven missile defenses against threats such as North Korea and Iran but emphasized, as the NPR does, that these defenses should not be so big as to encourage Russia to add warheads to counter them, which would only undermine efforts to reduce nuclear weapons. We included China as well as Russia in this.

But in two areas, we believe the NPR might have fallen short of the mark.

First, we understand that the review considered declassifying additional information about the size and composition of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. It should have done so. This would demonstrate U.S. leadership on the transparency that is needed to secure nuclear materials globally and to bolster strategic stability with Russia and China.

Second, the NPR called for the consideration of conventional "prompt global strike" capabilities. But it did not explain whether these systems would have a niche role against small regional powers such as North Korea or be an ultimate substitute for nuclear weapons in deterrence with Russia and China.

We feel the former is the only sensible approach. Keeping this issue ill-defined creates needless anxiety in Moscow and Beijing that could lead to future problems.

Even with these two caveats, the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review makes important strides in charting a sustainable bipartisan path forward for the United States.

Healthy disagreement over some NPR specifics should not obscure the valuable contribution it makes to advancing U.S. security interests - resting, as it does in part, on our bipartisan 2009 Strategic Posture Commission report.

William J. Perry served as secretary of defense in the Clinton administration. He was chairman of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States. James R. Schlesinger was the nation's first energy secretary and served as secretary of defense from July 1973 to November 1975. He was vice chairman of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States.

 

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President Barack Obama holds a bilateral meeting with President Hu Jintao of China, during the Nuclear Security Summit at the Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C., April 12, 2010. | Lawrence Jackson
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