The North Korean leader Kim
Jong-il and his youngest son and presumed successor, Kim Jong-un, jointly
attended military maneuvers on an unspecified date. This was the first official
outing of the 27-year-old youngest son of the "Dear Leader." These maneuvers were held just before the Sunday
celebration of the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers Party of
Korea. David Straub, associate director of the Korean Studies Program at
Stanford University, discussed the informal transfer of power that took place
last week.
What was learned last week about
the succession to Kim Jong-il in North Korea?
The maneuvers confirmed with near certainty the past few years of speculation
that the third son of Kim Jong-il has been informally designated as his
successor. This process is now public. This is the first time that the name of
Kim Jong-un has been published in North Korea. However, as long as his father
is alive and can govern, he will remain in power. But, clearly, his health is
not good. This official outing of the son seems in preparation for the
possibility that Kim Jong-il may die suddenly. Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke in
2008, after which he disappeared for several months. Upon his return, he had
lost weight and appeared stiff and impaired on his left side.
Was Kim Jong-un touted as the successor?
There were no signs until a few years ago. First, it was Kim Jong-nam, the
eldest son, who was favored. Officially, he fell out of the race when he was
caught entering Japan with a forged passport. At the time, he told Japanese
officials he wanted to take his son to Tokyo Disneyland [the target of an attempted
contract killing by Kim Jong-un in 2008, the eldest now lives happily in Macao,
ed.]. It is then the second son, Kim Jong-chol, who was poised to be the
successor. But in Pyongyang, it was thought that he was not sufficiently
ambitious and aggressive. Then, all eyes turned to Kim Jong-un, who has the
personality of his father: ambitious, aggressive, and ruthless.
The main question then was how Kim Jong-un would be promoted. Most observers
were betting on a gradual process. In this sense, it is not really surprising.
He was appointed as a four-star general, which is a mostly symbolic
distinction. He was also made vice-president of the Central Military Party.
This underscores how strong the military is in North Korea. What surprised me
most is that the younger sister of Kim Jong-il was also appointed as a
four-star general. In line with the predictions of observers, Kim Jong-il has
mobilized his immediate family to create a sort of regency capable of
supporting his son in the event of his sudden death.
What is known about Kim Jong-un?
He was probably born in 1983 or 1984. However, the regime may try to say he was
born in 1982. In Chinese culture-and also in North Korea-numbers are
significant. Kim Il-sung, his grandfather, was born in 1912. Kim Jong-il was
born in 1942. That would put Kim Jong-un in a kind of celestial lineage. It is
almost certain that he attended school in Switzerland, where he was a quiet
student. He had a false name, Pak-un, and one or two close friends. He also
liked basketball. He then returned to Pyongyang. Some unconfirmed reports say
he studied at a military university. A few years ago, it was said he had been
appointed to the office of the Workers Party and the office of National Defense
Committee, which is the highest organ of power in North Korea.
Who now heads North Korea? What is the
power structure like?
The general view is that Kim Jong-il is the supreme leader-an absolute
dictator-and he has tremendous latitude. He bases his legitimacy on the fact
that he is the son of the founder of the regime. But nobody can run a country
alone. He must therefore take into account various factors. In North Korea in
recent decades, the military has played a growing role and seems to occupy a
dominant place today.
A university professor based in South Korea believes that the regime in
Pyongyang has greatly copied Japanese pre-war fascism, even though Korea fought
against imperialism. The scheme is based on a totalitarian structure, relying
in particular upon the military. Information is very strictly controlled and
the population is monitored, as in East Germany. The structure remains very
closed, and the leadership is afraid to open up to the outside world and
receive investment or foreign aid. Finally, family occupies an important place.
North Korea is part of China's cultural sphere, with a strong presence of
Confucianism. The notion of the state is close to the family structure model.
The king is seen as the head of the family.
Does a period of transition put the
regime in danger? What took place before?
It is inevitable that one day a regime that is so rigid and incapable of
transformation will suffer major changes. However, we cannot say when or what
form this will take. But it is clear that unusual things can happen during a
period of change like this. The last transition was very similar to the current
process. The difference is that Kim Jong-il had been clearly designated as the
successor by his father and he had decades to gradually gain experience and
consolidate his power within the system. Kim Jong-il managed most affairs of
state since 1980, when the last Workers Party meeting was held. He was the de facto leader for 14 years. When his
father died in 1994, however, he took three years to formally become established
as the leader. The difference today is that Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke in
2008. Some people in North Korea are afraid that his son had not had enough
time to prepare for power. Kim Jong-un must particularly ensure that the
military is loyal to him. That is why he was made a general.
What legacy does he leave his son Kim
Jong-un?
Although North Korea has said for decades that it follows the principles of juche or self-sufficiency, it largely
sustained itself during the Cold War by trade with the USSR and its satellite
states, and China. It received much help. Now that the USSR has collapsed and
China has turned to a market economy, the economic situation in North Korea has
become untenable. The country suffered a terrible famine in the mid-1990s.
Nobody knows for sure how many people died, but it was certainly several
hundred thousand. Some say that there were more than one million deaths, out of
a total population of 22-23 million people. The government then had to loosen
its grip on the system. This has helped the country recover. Today, access to
basic resources is much better in North Korea than it was fifteen years ago.
The country was also helped by foreign aid from Japan, South Korea, the United
States, and China. Now, because of the crisis over its nuclear program, the
only foreign aid that comes into Pyongyang is from China. The North Korean
regime faces a dilemma: its only resource is its workers. It fears opening up
to accept foreign capital and technology, which would expose the people to
outside reports that fundamentally contradict the regime's decades-old claims.
That is why the few commercial contacts are with ideologically similar
countries, like Syria or Iran. As for the industrial project in Kaesong near
the border between North and South, it is very closely monitored by the
authorities.
What is the situation at the diplomatic
level?
North Korea has no close allies in the world. It cooperates with Cuba, Syria,
or Iran, but these countries are isolated. Their relationship is either
rhetorical or in connection with the nuclear program. As for its neighbors,
North Korea does not like them. The South is seen as an existential threat; it
is another Korean state, comprising two-thirds of the Korean nation, and has
been a phenomenal success. The situation is different with China. Officially,
both countries are driven by an eternal friendship, but this is based primarily
on strategic considerations. Nevertheless, China provides a lifeline to North
Korea.
Finally, I think in the last
two decades, Pyongyang has toyed with the idea of a strategic alliance with the
United States to counterbalance Chinese influence. But for domestic political
reasons and because of the situation of human rights in North Korea, the
Americans have never pushed this idea further. The North Koreans have realized
that this strategic relationship was probably a dream.
The fundamental problem behind
all of this is due to an accident of history. After the liberation of the
peninsula from Japanese occupation in 1945, the division between the Soviets
and Americans-for practical reasons-was not intended to be permanent. Today,
there are two states, each of which thinks that it best represents the Korean
nation and that it should be in
charge of the affairs of the peninsula in its entirety. It is a zero-sum game.
All issues about the current succession flow from this.
