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Beyond North Korea

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Beyond NK CROPPED

Why should Americans worry about South Korean security? The answer is clear: North Korea, and beyond. Most international attention to the North Korea problem has focused on U.S. policy, but South Korea's longterm role may in fact be more important. South Korea's security is vital to peace and stability, not only in Northeast Asia but also the wider world.

Written by eminent scholars, practitioners, and policymakers with extensive on-the-ground experience, Beyond North Korea assesses the varied contexts—regional and global, traditional and nontraditional—that underpin South Korea's varied security challenges. What are South Korea's military requirements? How do relations with its neighbors enhance or undermine its position? What economic, environmental, and demographic factors come into play? This book reveals that South Korea's national security rests as much on sound domestic policy choices as on successful interstate relations. 

Desk, examination, or review copies can be requested through Stanford University Press.

Beyond North Korea is the first in a new series of policy-related studies on contemporary South Korea sponsored by the Koret Foundation of San Francisco.

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Future Challenges to South Korea's Security

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Byung Kwan Kim
Gi-Wook Shin
David Straub
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Shorenstein APARC
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The Outer and the Inner Transformation of the Global Social Sphere through Technology: The State of Two Fields in Transition

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Transitions in technology are shaping, defining and establishing the future of the globalized social sphere with increasing pace and impact. As seen from a systemic viewpoint, the overall process seems to consist of a two-fold movement, in which an outer process of transition is joined by an inner transformational drive. While new social media like Facebook, Twitter, webcams, smartphones and iPads change the outer dimension of how we perceive, interpret and handle our social lives, thus transforming our habits of cultural consumption, contemporary brain and consciousness research are changing the inner dimension of the contemporary social by dramatically re-shaping the self-perception and interpretation of the individual through the findings, cultural distribution and practical applications of neuroscience and neurotechnology, thus questioning the conceptual cornerstones of sociality as conceived by Western modernity. This two-fold argument examines both processes from the inside out and the outside in. As such, the primary task as at now may not be trying to “explain” the meaning(s) of the new developments, but rather to identify an array of crucial questions at the inter- and trans-disciplinary crossroads between the different societal fields, culturo-political trends and scientific disciplines.

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New Global Studies
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U.S.-DPRK Educational Exchanges: Assessment and Future Strategy

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Although there are no formal diplomatic relations between the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), nonetheless there have been constant attempts by U.S. academia, friendship organizations, and NGOs to develop and promote educational interaction and exchanges between the citizens of these two countries. Have these attempts found success? What lessons can be learned from these experiences?

The essays in this volume originated from a conference held in November 2010 at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University. The conference papers and case studies evaluated past educational exchanges between the United States and the DPRK, in the hope that through such discussions and self-assessments, effective strategies for future international educational exchanges can be developed.

This book is being distributed as a free PDF downloadable from the Shorenstein APARC website.

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Shorenstein APARC
Authors
Gi-Wook Shin
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978-1-931368-24-7

We are accepting applications for our 2012-2013 fellowship programs

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Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation invites applications for its fellowship program from scholars in the natural and social sciences, law, and engineering. In some cases, mid-career professionals in journalism, the military, government, or international organizations, either from the U.S. or abroad, are also eligible.
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China's vibrant, changing media landscape

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Newsstands dot the street corners of China’s major cities, and each day the country’s netizens cram into Internet cafés to surf the web and connect with friends online. Last year alone, Chinese readers purchased 50 billion newspapers and the government reported 163 million regular Internet café users—roughly one-third of China’s total Internet population.

According to panelists at the Dec. 7 China's Changing Media Landscape event, organized by Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC), now is both an exciting and a challenging time to be a journalist in China.

Changes in China’s media landscape go hand in hand with today’s rapid economic, social, and political reforms, said Shorenstein APARC associate director for research Daniel C. Sneider as he opened the event. He described Caixin Media, recipient of the 2011 Shorenstein Journalism Award, as the “first truly independent media company in China.”

“We need to try harder to get a scoop, but I think it’s a nice problem to have.”
-Hu Shuli, Editor-in-Chief, Caixin Media

Hu Shuli, editor-in-chief of Caixin Media and a former Stanford Knight Journalism Fellow, said that China’s number of quality investigative and independent media outlets keeps growing. “We need to try harder to get a scoop,” she said. “But I think it’s a nice problem to have.”

Hu called technology a “double-edged sword” in that it can be manipulated in order to spread rumors and incite unproductive debates. She said, however, that the popularity of the Internet and mobile devices offers Chinese journalists the opportunity to publish news faster and reach the public through social media platforms like the country’s most popular micro-blog service Sina Weibo, which has approximately 230 million user accounts.

Caixin managing editor Wang Shuo spoke of the efforts by Caixin and other independent Chinese media outlets to gain an international audience. “China presents one of the most exciting stories of our time,” he said.

Caixin and the Asian edition of the Wall Street Journal publish one another’s news stories on a monthly basis. Wang said that the modest amount of “bartered” content is not the point. “It means that a major U.S. newspaper recognizes that Caixin is up to international standards,” he said.

Ben Hu, a reporter with Southern Weekend and a current Stanford Knight Fellow, said that China’s tough licensing system makes it difficult for publications to grow. Without a license, he said, online publications cannot attract banner advertising—their real source of income. Hu spoke of a computer-coder-turned-online-news-publisher who draws half-a-million visitors to his website daily, but still cannot make a profit from it.

China’s weak copyright protection system is another major issue facing journalists today, he said. Start-up publications often plunder “real” articles and rehash the content to avoid paying a fee to license it.

Orville Schell, the director of the Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations and the recipient of the 2003 Shorenstein Journalism Award, said that as the traditional U.S. media industry declines, China’s continues to grow more vibrant. On the flip side, however, he said that aggressive industry competition and the state’s system of licensing and censorship challenges journalists.

But China’s system of media control may also have an inadvertent upside, Schell suggested. It may slow the spread of a dumbing down of content in television and other areas of the media, following the commerce-driven model of the U.S. media industry.

The panel discussion concluded with a lively question-and-answer session from the standing-room-only audience of members from the Stanford community and general public. Questions ranged from the role of technology in the media to China’s system of censorship.

Hu Shuli and Wang accepted the Shorenstein Journalism Award on behalf of Caixin Media at a dinner ceremony held later that day at Stanford. The event marked the first time that an Asian media outlet or journalist has won the award.

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A rare lone figure early in the day in an Internet cafe, Turpan, China. Internet- and mobile-based technologies are increasingly relevant to Chinese journalists. | Flickr/Tom Thai
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STAJE 4th Annual Conference: "Japan at the Entrepreneurial Crossroads - What Lies Ahead?"

The 4th annual conference of SPRIE-Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE) will be a two-day event, exchanging ideas on entrepreneruship, institutions, and Japan such as emirical studies, case studies, political and social instituional studies in Japan, and new research methodology including experimental design.

This conference is approriate for working papers for those seeking high quality comments, as well as recently completed papers, and revisions to existing papers.

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Stanford Graduate School of Business
Stanford University

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Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE)

North Korea's new course

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The legacy of the late North Korean leader Kim Il Sung's decision in the early 1990s to pursue a strategic partnership with the United States has run its course. In its place, the focus of Pyongyang's policies has decisively shifted to Beijing. However wary the North Koreans may be of their neighbor, the fact is that from Pyongyang's viewpoint, the Chinese have delivered and the United States did not.

Any shards remaining from the North's previous, decades-long effort to normalize ties with the U.S. were swept away by current leader Kim Jong Il's trip in May to China, his third in barely a year. Based on our discussions with Chinese officials, we believe that during that visit, Pyongyang and Beijing came to an understanding that, in preparation for planned, major domestic political events in 2012, both sides require sustained political stability, a convergence of interests that provides the opportunity for expanding bilateral relations beyond anything enjoyed in the past. The North is building toward a "prosperous and powerful" nation in celebration of the Kim Il Sung centenary in April; the Chinese are looking toward their 18th Party Congress scheduled for late next year. In both cases, it was apparently decided, stability on the Korean peninsula would serve economic programs and the succession of a new generation of leaders.

In the arrangements — formal and informal — that emerged from Kim Jong Il's discussions with his hosts, Pyongyang agreed not to "make trouble" (as the Chinese described it to us) in the short term, presumably meaning no deliberate military provocations, no third nuclear test and no launch of another ballistic missile. Beyond that, the talks ended in a compromise that neither side found entirely satisfactory. Kim came away with less aid and a smaller Chinese commitment of support than he had sought, though Pyongyang typically asks for more than it can get.

The North did, however, receive increased access to both Chinese capital and technology in spite ofUnited Nations and other foreign sanctions. Kim also obtained, through the establishment of joint economic zones with China along the Yalu River, a locale to test adjustments necessary to economic development, adjustments that would fall short of what Beijing considers genuine economic reform. Chinese President Hu Jintao, we were told, had to settle for Kim's promise to cause less trouble but without a North Korean commitment to serious steps toward denuclearization.

We believe that this pivot toward Beijing is no routine oscillation in North Korean policy. The drive to normalize relations with the U.S. from 1991 to 2009 had been real, sustained and rooted in Kim Il Sung's deep concern about the regime's future in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Perhaps there was no better demonstration of the North's approach in those years than the situation on Oct. 25, 2000 — the 50th anniversary of the entry of the Chinese People's Volunteers into theKorean War. Who was in Pyongyang on that date meeting Kim Jong Il? The Chinese defense minister? No, he was cooling his heels while Kim met with the U.S. secretary of State. That was no accident of scheduling on Pyongyang's part; it would not happen again today.

If the paradigm shift is real, we expect the North in the near to medium term to make far less overt trouble. Less tension on the Korean peninsula? What could be wrong with that? Nothing, as long as it is understood that such tranquillity will also provide a veil for the North's continuing pursuit of nuclear weapons and increasingly sophisticated delivery systems. With the onset of stability and growing Chinese-North Korean cooperation, Pyongyang may well calculate that the outside world's focus on the North Korean nuclear program will become diffuse. Indeed, the North Koreans have long assumed that given enough time, the world would resign itself to their nuclear weapons, as happened with India and Pakistan.

To help things along, it isn't out of the question that Pyongyang might even agree to some U.S. efforts to contain the nuclear program through a series of what Washington calls "pre-steps." The North has repeatedly expressed willingness to consider discussion of its uranium enrichment program and moratoriums on missile and nuclear tests. As unilateral actions, these would have short-term benefits by further stabilizing the situation to provide additional room for discussions. But in the absence of long, serious negotiations between the two sides, they will turn out to be no more meaningful than the ill-considered agreements of the now moribund six-party talks.

All of which brings us back to the deepening North Korean-Chinese ties, and the downgrading in Pyongyang's calculations of relations with the United States. There was considerable momentum behind the North's strategy for engaging the U.S. in past negotiations. That is no longer the case, with consequences we have only started to feel.

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Los Angeles Times
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Robert Carlin
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Identity Politics in a Muslim-Majority Democracy: Explaining Communal Appeals in Indonesian Election Campaigns, 2009-2011

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Despite the many benefits of democracy, some scholars believe that introducing elections in ethnically divided states can lead to the politicization of identity and to ethnic conflict. Yet few scholars have explored what compels politicians to mobilize around identity in the first place. In search of an answer, Jeremy Menchik and George Washington University doctoral student Colm Fox compiled the only known dataset of campaign advertisements—over 5,000 political banners, posters, and stickers—across hundreds of electoral districts in the world’s largest Muslim-majority democracy, Indonesia. They coded these advertisements for the use of religious, ethnic, nationalist, party, and regional symbols in order to then explain their variation. Their findings shed light on how “politics works” in a new Muslim democracy and suggest that parties, including Islamists, are strategic about their use of identity appeals. Menchik will illustrate this and other findings with ample recourse to visual images.

Dr. Jeremy Menchik is a 2011–12 Shorenstein Fellow. His PhD from the University of Wisconsin-Madison drew on two years of field research to explain variations in religious and political tolerance in Indonesia during the twentieth century. He has been a Luce Scholar at Columbia University and a visiting fellow at the State Islamic University Syarif Hidayatullah, Jakarta. He is working on a book manuscript based on his dissertation: Tolerance Without Liberalism: Islamic Institutions in Twentieth Century Indonesia.

Co-sponsored with the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Stanford University.

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Jeremy Menchik

Walter H. Shorenstein
Asia-Pacific Research Center
616 Serra St C331
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Shorenstein Fellow (2011-2012)
MenchikJeremy.jpg PhD

Jeremy Menchik joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His research is in the area of comparative politics and international relations with a focus on religion and politics in the Muslim world, especially Indonesia. At Shorenstein APARC, he is preparing his dissertation for publication as a book titled, Tolerance Without Liberalism: Islamic Institutions in Twentieth Century Indonesia, and developing related projects on the origins of intolerance, the relationship between religion and nationalism, and political symbolism in democratic elections.

Menchik holds an MA and a PhD in political science from UW-Madison and a BA, also in political science, from the University of Michigan. He will be an assistant professor in international relations at Boston University beginning in 2013.

Jeremy Menchik 2011-2012 Shorenstein Fellow, Shorenstein APARC Speaker Stanford University
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Economic, social, and security implications of East Asia's demographic transition

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Asia’s demographic landscape is changing in a big way. Japan’s population is shrinking, as people are living longer, marrying later, and choosing to have fewer or no children. Korea is moving in the same direction, while China and the countries of South and Southeast Asia face similar issues in the coming decades. As this takes place, more people are moving to, from, and across Asia for job, education, and marriage opportunities.

These demographic changes present policymakers with new challenges and questions, including: What are the interrelationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth? How will it impact security? What are the effects on employment policy and other national institutions? How have patterns of migration affected society and culture? What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from one another to improve the policy response to population aging?

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) focused its third annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue on addressing the possible economic, social, and security implications of Asia’s unprecedented demographic transition. Thirty scholars, government figures, journalists, and other opinion leaders from Stanford, the United States, and countries across the Asia-Pacific region gathered September 8–9, 2011, in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss key issues related to the question of demographic change.

Comparative Demographics and Policy Responses

Japan’s shrinking workforce calls for labor policy changes, stressed presenters during the opening Dialogue session. Stanford Center for Population Research director Shripad Tuljapurkar stated that Japan’s population could decrease by as much as 25 percent and that its government has a window of approximately 40 years in which to act. In describing Japan’s demographic shift, Ogawa Naohiro, director of the Nihon University Population Research Institute, also emphasized the importance of good financial education for individuals as life expectancy increases.

Macroeconomic Implications

Economists Masahiko Aoki and Cai Fang addressed changes to East Asia’s economic landscape. Aoki, an FSI senior fellow, spoke of the transition from agriculture to industry that has occurred at different stages in Japan, Korea, and China and of the increasing cost of human capital that has followed. Cai, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences labor and population expert, stated that after several decades of industrial growth China is now at a turning point in terms of its global competitiveness.

Labor and Migration

Scott Rozelle, codirector of Stanford’s Rural Education Action Program (REAP), opened the next day with a discussion of China’s rural human capital investment. Offering Mexico’s situation after the mid-1990s peso crisis as a comparison, he emphasized the immediate need for allocating more health and education resources to China’s rural areas. Ton-Nu-Thi Ninh, president of Tri Viet University, discussed the socioeconomic and cultural aspects of labor migration—a growing trend in Asia—and advocated that governments factor it more into their foreign policy development.

Security

The security impact of Asia’s demographic transition will take several decades to understand, but it will eventually lead to the need for significant policy re-strategization, stated Yu Myung Hwan, Korea’s former minister of foreign affairs and trade, during the closing Dialogue session. He suggested focusing on impacts that could result from the major changes taking place in fertility, urbanization, and migration. Concurring with many of Yu’s views, Stanford’s Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Michael H. Armacost also noted the current lack of literature on the link between security and demography. In addition, he emphasized the need for the United States to continue pursuing good relations with China and Russia during this time of transition.

“Low fertility rates are not because women are all out there working. In fact, a number of countries have lots of females in the labor force and have achieved a resurgence of fertility. Achieving work-life balance is important, not just for women, but for men as well, and might play a role in lessening the gap in life expectancy between men and women.”

-Karen Eggleston, Director, Asia Health Policy Program

Throughout the event, Dialogue participants unanimously acknowledged the serious challenges facing policymakers as they look for ways to meet the evolving needs of individuals, families, and organizations. The demographic outlook is not entirely gloomy, however. Numerous participants also pointed to the potential for exciting advances and innovations in technology and international cooperation.

As in previous years, the event concluded with a lively public symposium and reception attended by students from Stanford and local universities, Shorenstein APARC guests and affiliates, and members of the general public. Speaking during the reception, Kadokawa Daisaku, mayor of Kyoto, and Kim Hyong-O, member and former speaker of the Korean National Assembly, acknowledged the significance of the Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue as a forum for addressing issues of mutual importance to the United States and Asia.

The Dialogue is made possible through the generosity of the City of Kyoto, FSI, and Yumi and Yasunori Kaneko. To read the final report from this and previous Dialogues, visit the event series page below.

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A worker stands on steel rods at a superblock construction site in Jakarta in February 2010. Increasing urbanization is one of many aspects of Asia's demographic change. | REUTERS/Beawiharta
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