As nations implement clean energy solutions to combat climate change, multilateral institutions like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) remain an important tool in facilitating regional collaboration. On November 1, Shorenstein APARC presented a panel discussion on Asia-Pacific Energy Challenges and the Role of APEC. It was the third installment in the Center's autumn 2023 seminar series on APEC, complementing the forum's summit in San Francisco.

The panelists included Larry Goulder, Professor in Environmental and Resource Economics and Director of the Stanford Center for Environmental and Energy Policy Analysis; Larry Greenwood, Chairman of the Board of the Japan Society of Northern California, Senior Adviser at BowerGroupAsia, and U.S. Ambassador to APEC from 2000-2003; Gita Wirjawan, Former Minister of Trade and former Chairman of the Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia and Visiting Scholar at Shorenstein APARC. Shorenstein APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar moderated the conversation.

Goulder opened the discussion with an analysis of energy supply and use in China, what the Chinese government is doing on the climate front, and how the nation’s infrastructure projects connect with its energy use and consumption. He reminded the audience that China has emerged as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide for greenhouse gases and indicated that “if we're going to make a significant dent in dealing with climate change, China's action is going to be indispensable.”

Goulder noted that although China’s growth has slowed in recent years, its energy demands continue to grow, as does its reliance on coal-fired power plants. Coal still represents about 50% of the country’s total energy mix, whereas the other 50% is from non-fossil power, namely, wind, solar, hydroelectric, and nuclear. According to Goulder, the current energy mix is “good news for those concerned about climate change, the share of renewable energy is increasing.”

To help meet UN emissions commitments, China has implemented a nationwide emissions trading system, a market-based approach to controlling pollution by providing economic incentives for reducing the emissions of pollutants. The system is expected to more than double the CO2-covered emissions worldwide by the time it is fully implemented. "By 2026, [the system] is expected to contribute to about half of the reductions of CO2-acid, which would be needed for China to meet its pledge of net zero by 2060,” said Goulder. He advocated for linking China's emissions trading system to emissions trading in a multinational market.

Greenwood then outlined some of APEC’s history as it relates to energy issues and indicated that energy was an early and enduring focus of the forum. In 1990, a time of fluctuations in the global oil market, APEC founded its Energy Working Group. Since then, the group's scope has expanded to address renewable energy needs. According to Greenwood, the working group is responsible for conducting workshops, seminars, studies, and creating discussion venues to facilitate exchange between working-level officials — something APEC does more broadly.

Greenwood discussed the voluntary emissions targets of the working group, in which APEC members set targets and then monitor them and “use peer pressure to drive or to encourage compliance and action to make those targets.” Member nations are largely focused on energy intensity targets, he explained. In addition, APEC has maintained a target to double renewable energy generation between 2010 and 2030. “Mainly because of China, APEC is easily on track to meet that goal,” said Greenwood.

For Greenwood, energy security and climate change are the two prevailing interests of the APEC working group, but another area the forum is increasingly interested in is energy emissions trading and carbon capture. “According to the studies, it looks like we're not going to reach carbon zero, so we need to find ways, not only natural change but technology, to capture carbon and store it.”

Wirjawan proceeded to discuss energy security in the context of global development. He highlighted a paradox of the sustainability narrative, namely, that the aspiration to attain carbon neutrality by 2050 can seem too elitist because it resonates with the 15 to 20 percent of the world’s population living in developed countries. The remaining 80 to 85 percent of the global population, however, “are still concerned about putting food on the table, irrespective of how energy is sourced.”

Wirjawan also illustrated how large developing economies like Indonesia and India struggle to increase electrification on a per capita basis and argued that “it's probably going to take around 90 to 100 years. This duration is significantly irreconcilable with the 27 years left until 2050, when and where we have to attain carbon neutrality. So the question is, how do we narrow the gap?”

Wirjawan noted that “on the demand side, it is a lot easier to socially re-engineer, socially re-architect somebody's behavior in a developing economy so that he or she would stop using fossil fuel. The million dollar question is whether the alternatives will be as affordable.”

From a technological standpoint, said Wirjawan, we have all the necessary solutions to decarbonize. ”The problem for many developing economies is the economics of what it would take for all of us to bring down the cost from 20 cents per kilowatt to 5 cents.”

To achieve such goals, massive amounts of capital and organization are required, concluded Wirjawan. APEC's value, he said, is its ability to facilitate and accelerate information sharing and organization and reduce the win-lose dimension between environment and economic development.

The panel highlighted the need for multilateral cooperation in addressing climate change and energy security issues. The participants agreed that APEC has a significant role in bridging the divide between different constituent groups in the Asia-Pacific region and directing energy and economic policy that may accelerate the pace towards a more sustainable future. 

This essay originally appeared in The Diplomat.

With major crises in Gaza and Ukraine, the Biden administration might be tempted to overlook the importance of Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s mid-November visit to Washington. That would be a mistake. Indonesia is an important country that is heading into crucial presidential elections in early 2024, and the results of Jokowi’s visit could go a long way to shaping the next Indonesian government’s attitudes toward its relations with the United States.

Although U.S.-Indonesian security cooperation is good and trade has grown, by all accounts Jokowi and his team are heading to Washington feeling less than satisfied on several fronts. First, Indonesians remain upset by President Joe Biden’s decision to skip the recent Indonesia-hosted East Asia Summit, which they took as a serious snub. Biden invited Jokowi in part to make up for that absence, but the White House might have underestimated the extent to which Indonesians remain upset over the initial affront. The protocol-conscious government no doubt will also contrast their modest White House schedule with the lavish welcome recently received by Australian Prime Minster Anthony Albanese.

Indonesian authorities also remain unhappy with what they see as Washington’s failure to deliver on the high-profile Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), under which the U.S. committed to lead G-7-plus efforts to mobilize $20 billion to support Indonesia’s accelerated transition from coal to cleaner energy. Indonesian officials have complained publicly for months that the U.S. has pressed them to take difficult steps while offering little in the way of concessional financing to pay for it. The reality is more complicated, but the perception in Jakarta that Washington “sold them a bill of goods” is real. Some Indonesian officials have contrasted that with substantial Chinese funding on priority infrastructure initiatives, highlighting the regional perception of U.S. weakness vis-à-vis China as a reliable economic partner. (The Indonesians have largely ignored the fact that the U.S. is their second-largest export market and has risen rapidly to be their fourth-largest source of foreign direct investment.)

Jokowi also is looking for Biden to move forward on a proposed limited free trade agreement under which Indonesian critical minerals (namely nickel and processed nickel) would meet the criteria for inclusion in the electric vehicle tax credits provided for in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Biden administration reportedly is interested in such a deal, which by promoting diversification of both suppliers for the U.S. and markets for Indonesia would be in the U.S. national interest. It has, however, hesitated to proceed due to concerns about the congressional reaction, environmental and labor issues, and heavy Chinese investment in Indonesian nickel mining.

Finally, one has to assume that the Gaza crisis will be at the top of Jokowi’s agenda (if not Biden’s) when the two presidents meet. Indonesia, home to the world’s largest Muslim population, has long supported the Palestinian cause and has vigorously pursued diplomatic efforts to achieve an immediate ceasefire. While working hard to keep the issue from blowing up domestically, there is no question but that Indonesian public opinion (and genuinely held beliefs among top officials) has put the two governments at odds over the crisis.

At this late date, there is little prospect of major initiatives coming out of the Biden-Jokowi meeting that would ease Indonesian concerns or generate significant positive momentum. There is, however, still time to make some small investments that could result in Jokowi and his team leaving Washington feeling more positive about the relationship.

First, on Gaza, the meeting will not resolve the two countries’ differences, but it is important that Biden listen to and engage with Jokowi seriously on the issue and that he highlights his efforts to encourage Israel to show restraint and to promote a humanitarian pause. Jokowi’s post-meeting public comments about this discussion likely will have a significant influence on the Indonesian public and media perceptions of the U.S. role, so it is critical that Biden do all he can to ensure those comments are positive.

Second, it is important that Biden understand that Jokowi and many Indonesians are still upset over the president’s decision to skip the recent Jakarta summit. Biden cannot undo that, but he can and should acknowledge it in his discussion with Jokowi and emphasize that he appreciates how important Indonesia is.

Even such moves will only go so far without some movement on JETP and the critical minerals trade question. On the former, there isn’t time to achieve major progress before the meeting, but President Biden should instruct his team to redouble their efforts to mobilize funding and get the initiative moving. This goes beyond Indonesian concerns and gets to the heart of regional wariness about Washington being able to put meat on the bones of its various economic initiatives.

On critical minerals, Biden should agree to send trade officials to Jakarta to discuss the outlines of a possible agreement, though he will have to be careful not to overcommit absent confidence he will be able to deliver. Indonesia, for its part, needs to stop rotating ambassadors through Washington so quickly and install an envoy who can effectively make the case for a limited trade deal to Congress and others.

Some serious, last-minute work needs to be done to ensure that next week’s meeting between the leaders of the world’s second and third-largest democracies does more than highlight the differences and problems in the relationship.

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future are pleased to announce the second annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue (TPSD) in Seoul, Republic of Korea, set to take place on September 12-14, 2023. This convening, designed to accelerate progress on achieving the United Nations-adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, will focus on energy security, the seventh of the Agenda’s underlying 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

APARC and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation launched the dialogue initiative to spur new research and policy collaborations between experts from the United States and Asia to expedite the implementation of the SDGs by governments and non-state actors. This year’s event builds upon the success of the inaugural Tran-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue, held in Seoul in October 2022, and the continued momentum generated through its resultant regional convening, the Trans-Altai Sustainability Dialogue, which took place earlier this summer in Mongolia.  

The Korea Environment Institute, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute, K-water, and Ewha Womans University will co-host the second annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue. The event’s supporters include the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University, and the Asian Development Bank. Award-winning Korean actor and director Cha In-pyo has been named honorary ambassador of the TPSD. Mr. Cha will deliver remarks at the opening session of the dialogue. 

At the core of the 2023 TPSD is the pivotal theme of energy security, SDG7, which proposes to ensure access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy for all. The challenge of energy production, transportation, and security poses a critical barrier to a shared sustainable future. Despite ongoing progress toward sustainable energy targets on a global scale, recent data indicates that the pace of advancements is insufficient to meet the SDG7 targets by 2030 and varies significantly across different regions. The latest report from the SDG7 Indicator Custodian Agencies also finds that the policy measures required to tackle the global energy crisis, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, continue to lag and that international public financial support for clean energy in low and middle-income countries has been declining since before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Energy security is pivotal to the SDGs. Without securing clean energy, the climate crisis remains insurmountable. However, the clean energy future is under serious threat from the war in Ukraine sparked by Russia,” says Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations. “In this regard, I expect the second annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue to play an important role in convening world-renowned researchers, policymakers, and students to address energy security and advance clean energy technologies,” he adds.

In pursuit of genuine progress, the second annual TPSD will convene esteemed academics, government officials, industry experts, and leading professionals from Stanford University and across Asia. Together, they will interact in dynamic discussions that bridge multiple disciplines and climate science, exploring technological and policy solutions to expedite the transition toward a future free from fossil fuels and other unsustainable energy practices.

“As we approach the 2023 TPSD, we find ourselves at a crucial juncture, crossing the mid-point of the implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with mixed results,” notes Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea at Stanford and director of APARC. “By extending a platform for leading experts to combine rigorous scientific research, policy analysis, and industry insights, I am confident in our ability to advance tangible solutions and real-world action to propel us forward in pursuit of a decarbonized world.”

The first day of the dialogue, co-hosted by the Korea Environment Institute and the Korea Energy and Economics Institute, will convene at The Plaza Seoul. A World Leaders Session will kick off the event, headlined by Mr. Ban Ki-moon; Chairman of the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia Zandanshatar Gombojav; former U.S. Secretary of Energy and Nobel Prize Laureate in Physics, Stanford Professor Steven Chu; and Managing Director General of the Asian Development Bank Woochong Um. The following plenary sessions will examine the intersections of energy security, sustainability, and issues such as geopolitics, green technologies, and clean energy co-benefits.

The second day will be held at Ewha Womans University and hosted by Ewha’s Center for Climate/Environmental Change Prediction Research. The day’s discussion topics will include, among others, energy-efficient technologies and principles for energy security education. With the mission of empowering young leaders to drive the climate change and sustainable development agenda, the second day will offer opportunities for emerging scholars and young professionals to present their research and applied work in championing progress toward energy security.

The 2023 TPSD underscores APARC’s and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation's shared commitment to fostering ambitious action toward delivering the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals. APARC and our partners, co-hosts, and supporters warmly invite scholars, students, policy experts, and professionals to join us at the TPSD and get involved with our efforts to shape a sustainable and resilient future for the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

Visit the 2023 TPSD page to register to attend the event in person and access the complete program agenda and list of speakers.

About the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) is Stanford University's esteemed institute dedicated to addressing critical issues impacting Asia and its relations with the United States. Through interdisciplinary research, education, and dialogue, APARC seeks to shape innovative policy solutions and enhance collaboration among countries in the Asia-Pacific region. For more information, visit aparc.stanford.edu.

About the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
The Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future upholds the legacy and vision of Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations. Guided by the principles of unification, communication, co-existence, and dedication, the Foundation works tirelessly towards achieving peace, security, development, and human rights. Collaborating with international organizations and stakeholders, the Foundation actively supports the UN's Sustainable Development Goals and the 2050 carbon net-zero target set by the Paris Climate Accord. For more information, visit eng.bf4bf.or.kr.

Contact

For further information on the Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue, contact Cheryll Alipio, Shorenstein APARC’s Associate Director for Program and Policy at calipio@stanford.edu.