Stanford University

Lecture: China’s Rise and the Global System

In this address at a symposium sponsored by the Columbia University Chinese Students and Scholars Association, Tom Fingar discusses how the US-led global system has facilitated China’s rise, argues that China’s participation in the global system has changed China far more than it has changed the system, and observes that most of the changes that have occurred in the global order did so despite, not because of China’s engagement and rise.

Thomas Fingar

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
tom_fingar_vert.jpg PhD

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

China and the World

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Safety and Security in a Transnational Environment

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Drell Lecture Recording: NA

 

 

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Speaker's Biography: Vinton G. Cerf has served as vice president and chief Internet evangelist for Google since October 2005. He is also an active public face for Google in the Internet world. Cerf was appointed by President Obama to serve on the National Science Board beginning in February 2013.    

Widely known as one of the "Fathers of the Internet," Cerf is the co-designer of the TCP/IP protocols and the architecture of the Internet. In December 1997, President Clinton presented the U.S. National Medal of Technology to Cerf and his colleague, Robert E. Kahn, for founding and developing the Internet. Kahn and Cerf were named the recipients of the ACM Alan M. Turing award in 2004 for their work on the Internet protocols. The Turing award is sometimes called the “Nobel Prize of Computer Science.” In November 2005, President George Bush awarded Cerf and Kahn the Presidential Medal of Freedom for their work.

Oak Lounge
Tresidder Memorial Union, 2nd Floor
Stanford

Vinton G. Cerf Vice President and Chief Internet Evangelist, Google Speaker
Lectures
Drell Lecture

What Borders Tell Us About the World

CISAC Co-Director Tino Cuéllar talks about how borders shape our society and how they impacted a young boy who was born just a few blocks from the U.S. border-- himself.

Lectures

A Confiscated Memory – Wadi Salib and Haifa's Lost Heritage

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Haifa, the so-called "mixed city" of Jews and Arabs during the British Mandate period, also called the city of "co-existence" in the minds of its Jewish residents today, this city real and imagined will be the focus of this lecture, which suggests an archeology of memory of a conflict which is over and a conflict which still lingers.

Yfaat Weiss is professor in the department of the History of the Jewish People and Head of the Franz Rosenzweig Minerva Research Center for German-Jewish Literature and Cultural History at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. She is the author of various studies on German and Central European History, as well as on Jewish and Israeli History.

 

Philippines Conference Room

Yfaat Weiss Professor of History and Head of the Franz Rosenzweig Minerva Research Center for German-Jewish Literature and Cultural History Speaker the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Lectures

War as Business in South Korea’s Manchurian Action Films

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South Korea's Manchurian action films have recently received critical interest for the genre’s unique configuration of such themes as colonial history, nationalism, masculinity, geography and generic hybridity.  This presentation revisits the genre with a different thematic focus and question: the political economy of anti-colonial nationalism.  More specifically, it brings attention to the logic of money inherent in the genre and explores the broad implications of this thematic convention.  Contrary to the genre’s lofty political agenda, Manchurian action films collectively render the unsettling and scandalous trappings of anti-colonial nationalism of South Korea. 

Philippines Conference Room

An Jinsoo Assistant Professor, Korean Studies, Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures, University of California at Berkeley Speaker
Lectures

Peaceful Archipelago and Violent Peninsula: A Tale of Two Occupations

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Planners of United States postwar occupations in Japan and Korea anticipated the possibility of violence from overzealous Japanese who might refuse to accept their country’s defeat and revenge-seeking Koreans who might retaliate for colonial-era oppression. Though violence was evident in both Japan and Korea, it was far more intense on the peninsula than the archipelago. This paper examines this danger as one important dreg of Japanese colonial rule that divided the Korean people and disrupted their immediate post-liberation history. Its primary focus is on ramifications that these divisions and disruptions had on Korean politics and society in the period leading up to the Korean War.

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CISAC Conference Room

Mark Caprio Professor of Korean History, College of Intercultural Communication, Rikkyo University Speaker
Lectures

China, the Party and Its Banks

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Speaker:    Dr. Carl E. Walter, Author of “Red Capitalism”

Moderator:  Michael Harris, President of Finance, Ambow Education

Until China began its highly successful reform effort in 1978, banks as institutions hardly existed, they were mostly a channel to provide funding to state enterprises. Yet after the economic reform in the 1980s, there was a rush of banking privatization and this enthusiasm to drive economic growth led to excessive bank lending and high rates of inflation in the 1990s. Following the Asian Financial Crisis and the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment Co., a single party committee for each of the big state banks was created. The objective was to build relatively independent banking institutions with centralized management structures, thus forming special bond between the Party and Banks in China. Dr. Walter will discuss the modern evolution of China’s banks and the challenges in transiting to a more open, consumption-based model of economic development.

Carl E. Walter has worked in China′s financial sector for the past 20 years, participating in many of the country's financial reforms. He played a major role in China′s groundbreaking first overseas IPO in 1992 as well as the first listing of a state–owned enterprise on the New York Stock Exchange in 1994. He held a senior position in China′s first joint venture investment bank where he supported a number of significant domestic stock and debt underwritings for major Chinese corporations and financial institutions. More recently, he helped build one of the most successful and profitable domestic security, risk and currency trading operations for a major international investment bank. He holds a PhD from Stanford University and a graduate certificate from Beijing University.

Stanford Center at Peking University

Carl E. Walter Author of "Red Capitalism" Speaker
Michael Harris President of Finance Moderator Ambow Education
Lectures

Lessons From a Long War: the U.S., the Middle East, and Af-Pak

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Ryan Crocker is the first Kissinger Senior Fellow at Yale University 2012-2013. Born in Spokane, Washington, he grew up in an Air Force family, attending schools in Morocco, Canada and Turkey, as well as the U.S. He received a B.A. in English in 1971 and an honorary Doctor of Laws degree in 2001 from Whitman College (Washington). He also holds an honorary Doctor of National Security Affairs from the National Defense University (2010) and honorary Doctor of Laws degrees from Gonzaga University (2009) and Seton Hall University (2012). He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the American Academy of Diplomacy, and the Association of American Ambassadors.

He retired from the Foreign Service in April 2009 after a career of over 37 years but was recalled to active duty by President Obama to serve as U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan in 2011. He has served as U.S. Ambassador six times: Afghanistan (2011-2012), Iraq (2007-2009), Pakistan (2004-2007), Syria (1998-2001), Kuwait (1994-1997), and Lebanon (1990-1993). He has also served as the International Affairs Advisor at the National War College, where he joined the faculty in 2003. From May to August 2003, he was in Baghdad as the first Director of Governance for the Coalition Provisional Authority and was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs from August 2001 to May 2003. Since joining the Foreign Service in 1971, he also has had assignments in Iran, Qatar, Iraq and Egypt, as well as Washington. He was assigned to the American Embassy in Beirut during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the bombings of the embassy and the Marine barracks in 1983.

Ambassador Crocker received the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian award, in 2009. His other awards include the Presidential Distinguished and Meritorious Service Awards, the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award (2008 and 2012), the Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Civilian Service (1997 and 2008) and for Distinguished Public Service (2012), the Award for Valor and the American Foreign Service Association Rivkin Award for creative dissent. He received the National Clandestine Service’s Donovan Award in 2009 and the Director of Central Intelligence’s Director’s Award in 2012. In 2011, he was awarded the Marshall Medal by the Association of the United States Army. In January 2002, he was sent to Afghanistan to reopen the American Embassy in Kabul. He subsequently received the Robert C. Frasure Memorial Award for “exceptional courage and leadership” in Afghanistan. In September 2004, President Bush conferred on him the personal rank of Career Ambassador, the highest in the Foreign Service. In May 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the establishment of the Ryan C. Crocker Award for Outstanding Achievement in Expeditionary Diplomacy. In July 2012, he was named an Honorary Marine, the 75th civilian so honored in the 237 year history of the Corps.

[Co-sponsored by CISAC, CREEES, Center for South Asia, Stanford Humanities Center, and the Stanford Initiative for Religious and Ethnic Understanding and Coexistence, supported by the President's Fund, CCSRE, Religious Studies, and the Taube Center for Jewish Studies]

Bechtel Conference Center

Ryan Crocker 2012-2013 Kissinger Senior Fellow, Yale University; Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait and Lebanon Speaker
Lectures

Steering Through a Sea of Change

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Remarks by 


His Excellency

Ma Ying-jeou

President, Republic of China (Taiwan)
 

To be followed by a panel discussion chaired by

Professor Condoleezza Rice

with panelists

Larry Diamond
Director, CDDRL

 

Francis Fukuyama
Senior Fellow, FSI

 

Admiral Gary Roughead
Former Chief of Naval Operations
US Navy (Ret.)

 

Reception to follow.

Doors will open at 5:15pm,
and attendees should arrive before 5:50pm.


On May 20, 2008, Ma Ying-jeou was inaugurated as the 12th-term president of the Republic of China (ROC). During the presidential election Ma campaigned on a platform to revive Taiwan's flagging economy and restore core values of integrity, tolerance, and enterprising spirit. Ma secured a landslide victory with a total of 58.5 percent of the vote. The 2008 election represented Taiwan's second peaceful transfer of political power, marking a milestone in the country’s democratic development. On January 14, 2012, he was re-elected as the 13th-term president, with 51.6 percent of the vote.

President Ma graduated in 1972 from Taiwan's foremost academic institution, National Taiwan University, with a bachelor's degree from the College of Law. After earning a Master of Laws (LL.M.) degree from New York University in 1976, Ma received a Doctor of Juridical Science (S.J.D.) degree from Harvard Law School in 1981, specializing in law of the sea and international economic law.

In his early political career, Ma Ying-jeou served as deputy director of the First Bureau of the Presidential Office, where he acted as President Chiang Ching-kuo's English interpreter and secretary; Chairman of the Research, Development and Evaluation Commission of the Executive Yuan; and Minister of Justice. After teaching law at the College of Law, National Chengchi University, in 1998 Ma Ying-jeou was elected Mayor of Taipei with 51 percent of the vote, and four years he won a landslide victory for a second term with 64 percent of the vote. In 2005 he was elected chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), again by a decisive margin, and three years later he was elected president of the Republic of China.

As President, Ma Ying-jeou has addressed the repercussions of the global financial crisis, stepping up efforts to bring about a more diversified industrial structure and to jump-start new engines for economic growth in Taiwan. President Ma has attached great importance to promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction, which has helped Taiwan’s energy efficiency to exceed 2%. Crafting a response to regional economic integration in Asia has been another key policy focus for the Ma administration. In 2010, his administration successfully negotiated an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with the People's Republic of China, a landmark in the improvement of Cross-Strait relations. President Ma's creative diplomacy has brought a significant improvement in cross-strait relations while putting an end to a long and vituperative standoff between the two sides in the diplomatic sphere.

  

This event is co-sponsored with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, San Francisco and the Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan).

Steering Through a Sea of Change

Bechtel Conference Center

Ma Ying-jeou President, Republic of China on Taiwan Keynote speaker
Condolezza Rice Professor Moderator FSI

Larry Diamond

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
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Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab World; Will China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
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Francis Fukuyama

Encina Hall, C148
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

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Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Research Affiliate at The Europe Center
Professor by Courtesy, Department of Political Science
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Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.

Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book In the Realm of the Last Man: A Memoir will be published in fall 2026.

Francis Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, and of the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He served as a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics from 2001-2004. He is editor-in-chief of American Purpose, an online journal.

Dr. Fukuyama holds honorary doctorates from Connecticut College, Doane College, Doshisha University (Japan), Kansai University (Japan), Aarhus University (Denmark), the Pardee Rand Graduate School, and Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). He is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Rand Corporation, the Board of Trustees of Freedom House, and the Board of the Volcker Alliance. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration, a member of the American Political Science Association, and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married to Laura Holmgren and has three children.

(October 2025)

Global Populisms

A new project examining the global surge in populist movements and what it means for established democratic rules and institutions.
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Gary Roughead Admiral (Ret.), Former Chief of Naval Operations Discussant US Navy
Lectures

If China Could Re-make the Global Order, What Would it Look Like?

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China’s “rise” has been achieved through participation in the international system led by the United States, but many predict that Beijing will attempt to replace the US-led global order with one shaped by its own vision and priorities.  The 2013 Oksenberg Lecture will examine China’s desire and ability to remake the global order by focusing on what it would like to retain and what it would like to change.  Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow Thomas Fingar will give the keynote address, and Professors Thomas Christensen (Princeton) and Jia Qingguo (Peking University) will provide commentary and their own views on the subject.

The Oksenberg Lecture, held annually, honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001). A senior fellow at Shorenstein APARC and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Professor Oksenberg served as a key member of the National Security Council when the United States normalized relations with China, and consistently urged that the United States engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Lecture recognizes distinguished individuals who have helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.

SPEAKERS

Thomas Fingar is the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. He served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2004–2005), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001–2003), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994–2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989–1994), and chief of the China Division (1986–1989). Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (AB in government and history, 1968), and Stanford University (MA, 1969 and PhD, 1977 both in political science).

Thomas Christensen is William P. Boswell Professor of World Politics of Peace and War and Director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University. From 2006-2008 he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus on China’s foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security. Before arriving at Princeton in 2003, he taught at Cornell University and MIT. He received his B.A. from Haverford College, M.A. in International Relations from the University of Pennsylvania, and Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University.

Jia Qingguo is Professor and Associate Dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University. He received his Ph.D. from Cornell University in 1988. He has taught in University of Vermont, Cornell University, University of California at San Diego, University of Sydney in Australia as well as Peking University. He was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution between 1985 and 1986, a visiting professor at the University of Vienna in 1997 and a CNAPS fellow at the Brookings Institution between 2001 and 2002. He is a member of Standing Committee and the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and a member of the Standing Committee of the Central Committee of the China Democratic League.

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