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Speaker: Haviv Rettig Gur, senior analyst for The Times of Israel 

2023 will be remembered as Israel’s year of horrors. It began with deep societal polarization, mass protests, and anxiety about the future of Israeli democracy, following the new Netanyahu government’s plan to weaken judicial independence. It ended with the most devastating terrorist attack in Israel’s history and a war that is now being fought on multiple fronts. In this webinar, Amichai Magen, FSI's visiting fellow in Israel Studies, will be joined by one of Israel’s leading analysts, Haviv Rettig Gur, to take stock of 2023 and seek to ascertain what awaits Israel in 2024.

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A veteran Israeli-American journalist and analyst, Haviv Rettig Gur serves as The Times of Israel’s Senior Analyst. He has reported from over 20 countries and served as director of communications for the Jewish Agency for Israel, Israel’s largest NGO. Haviv lectures on Israeli politics, the U.S.-Israel relationship, the peace process, modern Jewish history and identity, and Israel-diaspora relations.
 

Haviv Rettig Gur

Haviv Rettig Gur

Senior Analyst at the Times of Israel
Full Profile

During the 2024 winter quarter (January-March) FSI's Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program is hosting a series of webinars exploring various aspects of contemporary Israeli politics, societal and security challenges. Webinars will take place on Wednesdays, 10:00-11:15am PST (20:00-21:15pm, Israel Time). Each webinar will feature a guest speaker from Israel or the U.S. and will include a lecture or moderated conversation with the guest, followed by a Q&A with the audience.

Amichai Magen
Amichai Magen
Haviv Rettig Gur
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About the Event: During the Second World War, U.S. and British military figures feared that Nazi Germany was pursuing a program to produce weapons that dispersed radiological material without a nuclear detonation. Although mistaken in their assessment, both countries in the postwar period launched their own radiological weapons (RW) programs, as did the Soviet Union. Death Dust explores the largely unknown history of the rise and demise of RW—sometimes portrayed as a “poor man’s nuclear weapon”—through a series of comparative case studies across the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, Egypt, and Iraq.  The authors draw on newly available archival material and interview data to illuminate the drivers of and impediments to radiological weapons innovation.  They also examine how new, dire circumstances, such as the war in Ukraine, might encourage other states to pursue RW and analyze the impact of the spread of such weapons on nuclear deterrence and the nonproliferation regime. They conclude by offering practical steps to reduce the likelihood of a resurgence of interest in and pursuit of radiological weapons by state actors.

About the Speakers: 

Sarah Bidgood is a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program. Prior to this, she served as Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California. Her work focuses on U.S.-Soviet and U.S.-Russian arms control, risk reduction, and nonproliferation cooperation, as well as the nonproliferation regime more broadly. Her research and analysis have been published in journals such as International Security, the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, and The Nonproliferation Review, as well as outlets including Foreign Policy, Arms Control Today, War on the Rocks, and The National Interest. Sarah is a coauthor of the forthcoming book, Death Dust: The Rise, Decline, and Future of Radiological Weapons Programs, which will be published by Stanford University Press in December 2023. She is also the coeditor of Once and Future Partners: The United States, Russia, and Nuclear Non-proliferation (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2018). Sarah received her BA in Russian from Wellesley College. She holds an MA in Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies from the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and an MA with distinction in Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies from the Monterey Institute of International Studies. She is a PhD candidate in Defense Studies at King’s College London, where her dissertation focuses on the relationship between Cold War nuclear crises and arms control.

Hanna Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) and a senior associate (non-resident) with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Notte holds a doctorate and MPhil in international relations from Oxford University. Her expertise is on Russian foreign policy, the Middle East, and arms control and nonproliferation. Her writings have appeared in the Nonproliferation Review, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and War on the Rocks, among others.

William Potter is Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies and Founding Director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at MIIS.  He is the author, co-author, or editor of over 20 books. Dr. Potter has served on committees of the US National Academy of Sciences and is a past member of the UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters. He has participated as a delegate at every NPT Review Conference and Preparatory Committee meeting since 1995. He is the recipient of the 2021 Therese Delpech Memorial Award.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Sarah Bidgood
Hanna Notte
William Potter
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About the Event: The global energy transition will trigger more competition among great powers—the United States, China, and Russia. Global efforts to transition to low-carbon fuels to meet climate goals have prompted the realization that China is the Saudi Arabia of low-carbon energy manufacturing and exports. The only area of commercial low-carbon energy that China is not yet leading is nuclear reactor and fuel exports, an area in which Russia, the other U.S. adversary, continues to dominate despite its actions in Ukraine. While there has been increased global collaboration and coordination on low-carbon energy and emissions targets, major energy consumers, including the United States, are facing growing competition over resources, such as critical minerals needed for low-carbon technologies, and a race to manufacture and innovate new forms of low-carbon technologies. The United States is currently at a disadvantage, as it is dependent on imports for critical minerals, renewable technologies, and nuclear fuel. The energy transition has the potential to reorder energy suppliers and import dependencies, and countries leading the race to supply the transition will reap the economic and geopolitical benefits traditionally afforded to dominant fossil fuel suppliers. China’s new role as a dominate supplier of the energy transition bodes well for its broader foreign policy initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and Global Energy Interconnection. Hence, it’s important to examine the energy transition in the context of great power competition to better understand how the world’s changing energy landscape could potentially affect U.S. national, economic, and energy security absent prudent planning. You can find the publication here: https://cgsr.llnl.gov/content/assets/docs/CGSR-Livermore-Paper-12-EnergyTransition-2023.0831.pdf.

About the Speaker: Asmeret Asghedom is the associate deputy director of the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Prior to joining CGSR, she worked at various positions in the U.S. federal government for over 10 years, focusing on global energy security issues. From June 2018 to January 2022, she was the director of the Energy Security Division in the Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, managing the production, briefing, and coordination of energy and climate security intelligence products that were briefed to the U.S. president and cabinet officials. From January 2017 to May 2018, she was a production chief and an intelligence analyst in the Energy Security Division, writing finished intelligence products and briefing senior officials, including the secretary of energy, on global energy issues with the potential to impact U.S. national security. From June 2016 to December 2016, she was a policy advisor at the Treasury Department’s Office of International Affairs, focusing on economic policy in the Middle East and North Africa. From November 2011 to May 2016, she was an economist at the U.S. Energy Information Administration, forecasting the production, demand, and price of global crude oil, tracking major supply disruptions, and analyzing geopolitical events affecting global oil and natural gas markets. She holds a BA in political science from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV), a BA in journalism and media studies from UNLV, and an MA in international economic development from American University in Washington DC.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Asmeret Asghedom
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About the Event: New digital technologies are profoundly changing human thought, including in the interpretation and application of international law. In this seminar, I employ both critical and behavioural approaches to international law to reflect on the technological revolution in international law, developing a cognitive-behavioural critique of contemporary law of armed conflict. Through an interdisciplinary and empirical exploration, I demonstrate that despite their differences – methodologically, theoretically, and ideologically – both critical and cognitive-behavioural approaches to international law share a commitment to complexity: a reading of knowledge production as a situated exercise, affected by geography, positioning, and motivations.

About the Speaker: Shiri Krebs is a Professor of Law at Deakin University and Law and Policy Co-Lead at the Cyber Security Cooperative Research Centre (CSCRC). In 2023-2024 she is a Visiting Professor at Stanford University and a Senior Humboldt Fellow at Hamburg University. She is an affiliate scholar at Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and serves as the elected Chair of the international Lieber Society on the Law of Armed Conflict. Her current funded projects include an ARC DECRA Fellowship studying the regulation of predictive technologies for preventive counterterrorism, at the intersection of law, science, and technology. 

Prof Krebs’ research on international fact-finding, biases in counterterrorism decision-making, and human-machine interaction in drone warfare, has influenced decision-making processes through invitations to brief high-level decision-makers, including at the United Nations (CTED, Office of the Secretary-General), the United States Department of Defence, and the Australian Defence Force. Her recent research awards include the ‘Researcher of the Year’ Award (Australian Women in Law Awards, 2022), the David Caron Prize (American Society of International Law, 2021), the Australian Legal Research Awards (finalist, Article/Chapter (ECR), 2022), and the Vice-Chancellor’s Researcher Award for Career Excellence (Deakin, 2022). 

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Shiri Krebs
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About the Event: How does possession of nuclear weapons affect decisionmaker psychology? Extensive research documents the causes of proliferation, but we know far less about the psychological consequences of this proliferation. Drawing on advances in psychological research on power, this paper expects that possession of nuclear weapons increases support for preventive war. In contrast to conventional security and prestige arguments, the feeling of power activates a curious combination of fear and overconfidence -- the hallmark features of preventive war thinking. The paper examines this expectation through internal documents in the Truman and Eisenhower Administrations. The findings shed new light on the effects of nuclear weapons on foreign policy in general, as well as the sources of preventive war thinking in particular.

About the Speaker: Caleb Pomeroy is a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. He researches the psychology of power in international relations, notably the effects of relative state power on human thought and behavior. His work is published or forthcoming at International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Peace Research, and Security Studies, among other outlets. He holds a PhD in International Relations from The Ohio State University, an MSc in Contemporary Chinese Studies from the University of Oxford, an MSc in Security Studies from University College London, and a BA in Economics from Boston College.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Caleb Pomeroy
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About the Event: Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is not a local or regional conflict; it is the prerequisite of the global confrontation between democratic and authoritarian regimes. We don’t know when and how the war will end, but it is abundantly clear that victory over authoritarian regimes like Russia, Iran and China is impossible without Ukraine aboard. 

We have all believed in the power of international law and the rule of law until it has been shattered by repeated violations perpetrated by the Russian Federation. Democratic values and principles should be protected with power. And the power is not making declarations but making tanks, drones and missiles. Democracy has to be backed up with power to be able to resist those who are trying to destroy it. 

About the Speaker: Oleksii Goncharenko is a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and Vice President of the PACE Committee on Migration, Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons. In Parliament, he is a member of the ‘European Solidarity group’, and head of the caucuses ‘For Democratic Belarus’, and ‘For Free Caucasus’. MP Goncharenko is a founder of Ukraine’s largest network of educational-cultural centres, the Goncharenko Centers, which have become volunteer hubs since February 2022.

MP Goncharenko has been fighting against Russian propaganda and publishes widely in international media to bring the truth to the world about Ukraine. He is included in the sanctioned persons lists of the Russian Federation. MP Goncharenko is a guest speaker at Yale University, Princeton University, Dartmouth College, and the University of Pennsylvania.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Oleksii Goncharenko
Seminars
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About the Event: James Goldgeier will be presenting on his 2023 book Evaluating NATO Enlargement: From Cold War Victory to the Russia-Ukraine War, co-edited with Joshua Shifrinson. The book provides a nuanced discussion of the merits and drawbacks of NATO enlargement and compares the pros and cons of the NATO enlargement policy against potential alternatives that were not chosen. Goldgeier will discuss key themes raised by the chapter authors, who represent a range of perspectives and whose chapters discuss NATO enlargement’s influence on the course of U.S. foreign policy, democracy and security in Central and Eastern Europe, NATO’s own development as a political and military institution, and NATO’s relations with China and Russia. 

About the Speaker: James Goldgeier is a Visiting Scholar at CISAC, a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a Professor of International Relations at the School of International Service at American University, where he served as Dean from 2011-17. He is a senior adviser to the Bridging the Gap initiative, and he serves as a co-editor for the Oxford University Press Bridging the Gap book series. He is chair of the State Department Historical Advisory Committee, and he serves as a member of the Secretary of State's International Security Advisory Board. 

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

James Goldgeier
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Join us in celebrating 40 years of CISAC as we reflect on our past achievements and look forward towards new knowledge for a safer world in the decades to come.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center

Seminars
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Media: please reach out to fsi-communications@stanford.edu or cisacevents@stanford.edu

About the Speaker: Condoleezza Rice is the Tad and Dianne Taube Director of the Hoover Institution and a Senior Fellow on Public Policy at Stanford University. She is the Denning Professor in Global Business and the Economy at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. In addition, she is a founding partner of Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC, an international strategic consulting firm.

From January 2005 to January 2009, Rice served as the 66th Secretary of State of the United States, the second woman and first black woman to hold the post. Rice also served as President George W. Bush’s Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (National Security Advisor) from January 2001 to January 2005, the first woman to hold the position.

Rice served as Stanford University’s provost from 1993 to 1999, during which time she was the institution’s chief budget and academic officer. As Professor of Political Science, she has been on the Stanford faculty since 1981 and has won two of the university’s highest teaching honors.

From February 1989 through March 1991, Rice served on President George H.W. Bush’s National Security Council staff. She served as Director, then Senior Director, of Soviet and East European Affairs, as well as Special Assistant to the President for National Security. In 1986, while an International Affairs Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations, Rice also served as Special Assistant to the Director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall

Condoleezza Rice
Seminars
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Shibley Telhami

In his recent co-edited book, The One State Reality: What is Israel/Palestine (Cornell University Press, 2023), Shibley Telhami and his colleagues have argued that what exists in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza is already a one-state reality and that the invocation of a two-state solution by American and international policymakers has, in effect, served as a smoke screen to avoid addressing this deeply unjust reality. The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli assault in Gaza have been on such a large and unprecedented scale that they are bound to impact, perhaps even transform, the existing reality. In his presentation, Telhami will assess the reality Israelis and Palestinians now face with an eye to what to expect ahead.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Shibley Telhami is the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, the Director of the University of Maryland’s Critical Issues Poll, and a Distinguished Scholar-Teacher. He is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Before coming to the University of Maryland, he taught at several universities, including the University of California at Berkeley, where he received his doctorate in political science. He has authored and edited numerous books, including one forthcoming book, Peace Derailed: Obama, Trump, Biden, and the Decline of Diplomacy on Israel/Palestine, 2011-2022 (co-authored). His most recent book is a co-edited with contributions volume, The One State Reality: What is Israel/Palestine?, published in March 2023 with Cornell University Press. He has advised every U.S. administration, from George H.W. Bush to Barack Obama. Telhami was selected by the Carnegie Corporation of New York along with the New York Times as one of the "Great Immigrants" for 2013, and Washingtonian Magazine listed him as one of the “Most Influential People on Foreign Affairs” in both 2022 and 2023. He is also the recipient of many awards, including the University of Maryland’s Distinguished Service Award and the University of Maryland’s Honors College Outstanding Faculty Award.

Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina Commons - 123 may attend in person.

Hesham Sallam
Hesham Sallam

Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina Commons - Room 123 may attend in person.

Shibley Telhami
Seminars
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