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In the days after 9/11, there was a widespread sentiment that suicidal terrorist attacks were irrational acts well beyond the bounds of quantitative risk assessment. Since then, terrorism risk models have been developed which are based on certain key theoretical principles that are validated by observational terrorism experience. These principles will be elaborated, and illustrated with examples from conflicts around the world.

Gordon Woo is a catastrophist, specializing on mathematical aspects of catastrophe risk modelling. He has developed a quantitative framework for modelling terrorism risk applied e. g. on the Olympic Games 2004 and the 2006 World Cup in Germany. Prior to this, his main focus has been on natural and environmental hazards. He has twenty years of practical experience in consulting for commercial, industrial and government organizations on major public risk issues varying from the disposal of radioactive waste, to oil pollution, flight safety, to earthquake, windstorm and flood protection.

Dr. Woo graduated as the top mathematician of his year at Cambridge University. He completed his PhD in theoretical physics as a Kennedy Scholar at M.I.T., after which he was elected a Junior Fellow of the Harvard University Society of Fellows. His work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek. In July 2004, he was named by Risk & Treasury Magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in finance.

CISAC Conference Room

Gordon Woo Principal Risk Analyst Speaker Risk Management Solutions
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Philippines Conference Room

Kwon, Hyeok Yong Assistant Professor of Political Science Speaker Texas A&M University
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China's economic growth and integration with global markets is restructuring the world economy and raising issues important to the future of US companies and workers. In the US market, we hear concerns over a range of Chinese trade practices, including subsidies, dumping; and the exchange rate. In the China market, lack of enforcement of IP protections and non-market behaviors, such as subsidies and industrial policies, give rise to concerns that the deck is being stacked against US companies. At the same time, US exports to China continue to grow rapidly and US invested companies report strong profits. Many also note that low cost imports from China keep the cost of living in the US low and enhance the competiveness of some US companies in global markets. President Bush has described our relations with China as "complex." Our economic relationship is the embodiment of that description.

Henry A. (Hank) Levine serves as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Asia in the International Trade Administration's office of Market Access and Compliance. His responsibilities include the market access concerns and compliance with international trade agreements that affect U.S. companies operating in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia, and the member countries of ASEAN. In his career State Department Foreign Service Officer, Mr. Levine has served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Europe, the U.S. Consul General in Shanghai, China and Deputy Director for Economic Affairs in the State Department's Office of Chinese Affairs. Mr. Levine has a B.A. in Political Science from Bucknell University. He did graduate work in international affairs at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is a 1993 graduate, with distinction, from the U.S. National War College. He is fluent in Chinese (Mandarin).

Series Co-sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies.

Philippines Conference Room

Hank Levine Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia, International Trade Administration Speaker U.S. Department of Commerce
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David Backer is a CDDRL post-doctoral fellow in the academic year 2005-2006. He is also an Assistant Professor of Politics at the College of William and Mary. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of Michigan. His dissertation project was an evaluation of the impact of participation by victims in South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). He is extending this research by comparing attitudes of victims and the general public, as well as conducting a longitudinal study of victims' attitudes about reparations. In addition, Backer is undertaking a parallel study of victims' responses to the truth commission processes in Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. His talk at the CDDRL seminar will focus on the South African experience with transitional justice.

Encina Basement Conference Room

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Post-doctoral Fellow 2005 - 2006
PhD

David Backer is a post-doctoral Fellow (Ph.D. Michigan) at CDDRL. His dissertation project was an evaluation of the impact of participation by victims in South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). He is extending this research by comparing attitudes of victims and the general public, as well as conducting a longitudinal study of victims' attitudes about reparations. In addition, he is undertaking a parallel study of victims' responses to the truth commission processes in Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

In another project, Backer looks at modes of transitional justice around the world and their effects on political development including regime stability, human rights practices, inter-group conflict, political violence and rates of violent crime.

David Backer Assistant Professor of Political Science, Post Doctoral Fellow Speaker College of William and Mary and CDDRL
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Between 1870 and 1945, France and Germany fought each other in three bloody wars, each of which left bitter memories and lingering antagonisms in its wake. Bitter memories in turn fed the respective histories of the two neighboring nations, and these became integral features of French and German national identities throughout the first half of the twentieth century. How and when did this begin to change? Siegel will discuss the efforts of twentieth-century French and German historians and teachers to break the intractable cycle of warfare and memory, nationalism and history. Professor Siegel will explore the links between collective memory, scholastic history, and nationalism as well as the complexities of turning history into a tool of international reconciliation. She will explore whether the sequence of events towards reconciliation in France and Germany might be replicable in other environments, notably Asia, in the context of recent events that suggest a rising nationalism in Asia.

Dr. Mona Siegel joined the CSU - Sacramento history faculty in 2003. Her teaching and research interests include modern French history, the history of women and gender, history and memory, peace history, and the history of the world wars. Her current research projects include "The Disarmament of Hatred: History, Truth, and Franco-German Reconciliation from World War I to the Cold War."

Philippines Conference Room

Mona L. Siegel Assistant Professor of History Speaker California State University - Sacramento
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John Harvey has served since March 2001 as director of the Policy Planning Staff of the National Nuclear Security Administration. In this role he advises the NNSA Administrator on major policy and program decisions. He is responsible for analysis of program and policy options relating to NSC-directed policy reviews, the work of the Nuclear Weapons Council, external advisory boards, and interagency working groups. He has the lead in developing NNSA's long-range planning guidance--the so-called "front end" of the Program, Planning Budgeting and Execution process currently being implemented in NNSA. Of note, Harvey has been "point" for NNSA on the President's NSPD-4 Strategic Review, the Nuclear Posture Review and its associated implementation, the interagency review of nuclear testing issues, and on the drafting and implementation of National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD)-28 on Nuclear Weapons Command, Control, Safety, and Security. From March 1995 to January 2001, Harvey served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Forces and Missile Defense Policy where he developed and oversaw implementation of U.S. defense policy governing strategic and theater nuclear forces and ballistic missile defense.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

John Harvey Senior Technical Advisor Speaker the National Nuclear Security Administration
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Robert A. Pape is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago specializing in international security affairs. His publications include Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism (Random House, June 2005); Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Cornell, 1996), "Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work," in International Security (1997), "The Determinants of International Moral Action," in International Organization (1999), "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," in American Political Science Review (August 2003), "The True Worth of Air Power," in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2004), and "Soft Balancing against the United States," in International Security (Summer 2005).

His commentary on international security policy has appeared in The New York Times, Washington Post, The New Republic, Boston Globe, Los Angeles Times and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. He has appeared on The News Hour with Jim Lehrer; Nightline; ABC News; CNN's Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper and Lou Dobbs; Fox's John Gipson; CNN International; and National Public Radio.

Before coming to Chicago in 1999, he taught international relations at Dartmouth College for five years and air power strategy for the U.S. Air Force's School of Advanced Airpower Studies for three years. He received his PhD from the University of Chicago in 1988 and graduated summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Pittsburgh in 1982. His current work focuses on the origins of suicide terrorism and the logic of soft balancing in a unipolar world.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Robert A. Pape Professor of Politicial Science Speaker University of Chicago
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