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Prior to taking the helm at the Korea Society in New York City, Revere spent 35 years in government service, capped by a long career as a U.S. diplomat and one of the Department of State's leading Asia experts.

Most recently, Revere spent time as the Cyrus Vance Fellow in Diplomatic Studies on a State Department assignment to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR.) At CFR, he served as project director for the Council's Task Force on U.S. policy towards China and also helped launch a new CFR study on Asia-Pacific regional security.

During his career at the State Department, Evans served as principal deputy assistant secretary and acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, managing U.S. relations with the Asia-Pacific region and leading an organization of 950 American diplomats and some 2,500 Foreign Service National employees. He also served as charge d'affairs and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul and as the deputy chief of the U.S. team conducting negotiations with North Korea. He is a three-time winner of the Department of State's Superior Honor Award.

Oksenberg Conference Room

Evans Revere president and CEO of the Korea Society Speaker
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This talk will discuss the study of a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. However, while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these conclusions.

About the speaker:

Philip Keeferis a Lead Research Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. Since receiving his PhD in Economics from Washington University at St. Louis in 1991, he has worked continuously on the interaction of institutions, political economy and economic development on issues ranging from the impact of insecure property rights on economic growth to the effect of political credibility on the fiscal and monetary policy choices of governments. His work has appeared in journals ranging from the Quarterly Journal of Economics to the American Review of Political Science.

CISAC Conference Room

Philip Keefer Lead Research Economist, Development Research Group Speaker the World Bank
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Olivier Roy is research director at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). He holds a state Agrégation in philosophy (1972), a Master's in Persian

language and civilization from the Institut National des Langues et Civilizations Orientales (1972), a PhD in political sciences from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques (IEP) in Paris (1996) and has been qualified to supervise PhD candidates since 2001. He currently lectures at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and the IEP and has acted as consultant to the French Foreign Ministry (Center for Analysis and Forecast) since 1984. Olivier Roy was also a consultant with UNOCA on Afghanistan in 1988, special OSCE representative to Tajikistan (August 1993 to February 1994) and headed the OSCE Mission for Tajikistan from February to October 1994.

Among his many publications is Globalised Islam: The search for a new ummah (London: Hurst, 2004).

Sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies and the Forum on Contemporary Europe.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Olivier Roy Research Director Speaker the French National Center for Scientific Research
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Minister Chung is one of the few to have had extensive discussions with North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il. Following their meeting in June 2005, Kim rejoined the Six-Party talks the following month. Chung will discuss the various proposals in dealing with North Korea made by the US and Korean governments. He will offer his personal views on how to deal with the North Korean nuclear problem and suggestions for future cooperation between the United States and the Republic of Korea.

After graduating from Seoul National University with a degree in history, Mr. Chung began his career as a journalist at Munwha Broadcasting Company (MBC). He was MBC's correspondent in Los Angeles and eventually the anchor for the evening news.

He left broadcasting for politics and was the spokesperson for President Kim Dae-jung and was elected to the National Assembly. In 2004 he co-founded and served as the first chairman of the Uri Party. He later served as minister of unification and also chairman of the National Security Council. Mr. Chung has a master's degree in communication from Cardiff University in Wales. He has often been mentioned as a contender for South Korea's presidency in next year's presidential election.

Philippines Conference Room

Chung Dong-young former Minister of Unification, Republic of Korea Speaker
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The "blue wave" of Democratic Party victories on November 7th has altered the dynamics inside Congress and between the legislative and executive branches. U.S. policy toward Asia will be significantly affected. We can expect new and different pressures on relations with regional actors including China and the Koreas, on Asian regionalism, and on trade and economic issues. Indonesia is likely to come in for particular scrutiny. Join us for a timely discussion of the changed domestic politics of U.S. Asia policy now and in the final two years of the Bush administration.

The U.S.-Indonesia Society (USINDO) is an independent NGO specializing in policy issues relating to Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Alphonse La Porta assumed the presidency of USINDO in 2004 after a 38-year career in the U.S. Foreign Service. In the latter capacity he served as ambassador to Mongolia and held diplomatic positions in Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and New Zealand. A former president of the American Foreign Service Association, Ambassador La Porta is a graduate of the National War College, Georgetown University, and New York University.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Alphonse F. La Porta President Speaker United States-Indonesia Society, Washington, D.C.
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This is a Special Seminar within the CDDRL Taiwan Democracy Program (co-sponsored with Shorenstein APARC).

Richard Bush is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Director of its Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. The Center serves as a locus for research, analysis, and debate to enhance policy development on the pressing political, economic, and security issues facing Northeast Asia and U.S. interests in the region.

Bush came to Brookings in July 2002, after serving almost five years as the Chairman and Managing Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the mechanism through which the United States Government conducts substantive relations with Taiwan in the absence of diplomatic relations.

Dr. Bush began his professional career in 1977 with the China Council of The Asia Society. In July 1983 he became a staff consultant on the House Foreign Affairs Committee's Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs. In January 1993 he moved up to the full committee, where he worked on Asia issues and served as liaison with Democratic Members. In July 1995, he became National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and a member of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which coordinates the analytic work of the intelligence committee. He left the NIC in September 1997 to become head of AIT.

Richard Bush received his undergraduate education at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin. He did his graduate work in political science at Columbia University, getting an M.A. in 1973 and his Ph.D. in 1978. He is the author of a number of articles on U.S. relations with China and Taiwan, and of At Cross Purposes, a book of essays on the history of America's relations with Taiwan.

Philippines Conference Room

Richard C. Bush Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Speaker The Brookings Institution
SpeakerSpeaker
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About the Speaker:

Sheri Berman is Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University. Her research interests focus on issues of comparative political development, European politics and history, globalization, social theory, and history of the Left. Some of her recent publications include: "The Primacy of Politics: Social Democracy and the Ideological Dynamics of the Twentieth Century" (2006, Cambridge University Press); "Violence, Conflict, and Civil Society," Mittelweg, Spring 2006 (academic paper); "Islamism, Revolution, and Civil Society," Perspectives on Politics, 1, 2, June 2003 (academic paper). Berman received her B.A. (1987) from Yale, and M.A. (1990) and PhD. (1994) from Harvard.

About the Event:

The best way to understand how stable, well-functioning democracies develop is to analyze the political trajectories such countries have actually taken. For the most part, this means looking at Western Europe and North America. When we look carefully at these cases we see that the political backstory of most democracies is one of struggle, conflict and even violence. Problems and even failures did not mean that democracy would be impossible to achieve some day; in fact, they can in retrospect often be seen to be integral parts of the long-term processes through which non-democratic institutions, elites, and cultures were delegitimized and eventually eliminated, and their democratic successors forged. An important reason many do not seem to realize this is because of a lack of historical perspective: contemporary analysts often ignore or misread the often messy and unattractive manner in which the current crop of stable democracies actually developed. Understanding past cases better is thus a crucial step toward putting today's democratization and democracy promotion discussions into proper intellectual and historical context.

CISAC Conference Room

Sheri Berman Associate Professor of Political Science Speaker Barnard College, Columbia University
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Why are opposition party leaders able to form multiparty coalitions to compete against entrenched incumbents in some African countries, but not in others? Leo Arriola challenges the conventional wisdom by showing that opposition coalitions are formed more frequently than is suggested by the region's relatively high reelection rates. Using data on executive elections held in 33 African countries between 1990 and 2005, he demonstrates that opposition coalitions are more likely to be affected by economic conditions than by ethnic divisions or institutional arrangements.

Leo Arriola is a pre-doctoral fellow at CDDRL. He seeks to understand under what conditions opposition parties in Africa can achieve coordination in running against incumbents. He takes Kenya, Ethiopia, Senegal and Cameroon as his main case studies. Leo is advised by Jim Fearon and David Laitin at Stanford, and has returned from fieldwork in Senegal and Cameroon in the Summer of 2006. He has previously spent time conducting research in Ethiopia and Kenya. He has a BA from Claremont, McKenna, and an MPA in International Relations from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton. When he leaves CDDRL next summer, he will become Assistant Professor of Political Science at Berkeley.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Leo Arriola Pre-doctoral Fellow Speaker CDDRL
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Alexandra Huneeus recently completed her dissertation entitled "The Dynamics of Judicial Passivity: Chilean Court Deference in an Age of Judicial Power," under the direction of Bob Kagan, Martin Shapiro and Gordon Silverstein. As a post-doctoral fellow at CDDRL, she is currently working on turning her dissertation into a book manuscript. This research seminar Ms. Huneeus will discuss her theoretical propositions about the role of judicial deference in the Chilean case and in democratic transitions more generally. She holds a BA, JD, and now PhD from Berkeley.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Alexandra Hunneus Post-doctoral Fellow Speaker CDDRL
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Nikolay Marinov is Assistant Professor in the Political Science department at Yale University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Stanford University in 2004. He spent 2004-2005 as a Global Fellow at UCLA. His current research looks at the effectiveness of economic sanctions, at the role of the international community in the spread of democracy around the world, and at the effects of international institutions.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Nikolay Marinov Assistant Professor of Political Science Speaker Yale University
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