In 2009 China, the world's largest coal producer, in seemingly a counterintuitive shift, became the world's largest coal importer at the same time.  The resulting realignment of the global coal trade has altered global prices for coal and power, and may be the harbinger of an "Asian coal decade" to come. 

Drawing on their recent presentation at Coaltrans Asia 2010, PESD researchers Gang He and Richard Morse examine the recent trend of soaring Chinese coal imports, and offer a theory of what will drive this long term coal import/export balance between China and the world in the next 10 years.  He and Morse argue that China's voracious appetite for imported coal is largely profit driven and takes advantage of key arbitrage relationships in the global market.  But those relationships are in turn largely a function of key political economy issues in China's domestic energy markets. 

Major coal and power sector reforms,  such as coal sector consolidation and coal-power integration, will impact domestic coal prices and therefore will largely drive China's import trends going forward.  Thus China's shift to imports is not a paradigm shift in global markets, but rather a harbinger of greater trade volatility in the future.

Speaking on June 17, 2010 in a television interview in South Korea, Dr. Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University, said, “No one can now ignore or overlook the importance of Asia.” He spoke of the rise of Asian countries in the past 50 years, particularly in the area of economics, and the world’s growing awareness of Asia. Dr. Shin discussed the important role that Shorenstein APARC and its Korean Studies Program (KSP) play in the field of Asian studies, noting that Shorenstein APARC’s unique focus on research, policy, and the social sciences distinguishes it from most academic Asian studies centers in the United States. He explained that not only do scholars from Shorenstein APARC carry out academic research, but they also “produce some policy reports for the American government and…try to promote dialogue between the U.S. and Asian countries.”

In his interview with Heart to Heart (Arirang TV) host Kolleen Park, Dr. Shin discussed the history of the field of Asian studies, noting the growing importance of Korean studies in the past 15 years. Dr. Shin said that in the past 100 years of Korean history are found “the key elements that we talk about in the social sciences.” He then asked, “How can we use the Korean experience to generate a general model or theoretical experience for the rest of the world?”

Dr. Shin’s interview took place during his visit to South Korea for the POSCO Asia Forum where he was a keynote speaker. The theme of the 2010 Forum was the “Globalization of Asian Culture.” “Looking back, Asia had a great contribution to human society and human civilization,” Dr. Shin said. His motivation in addressing the attendees of the Forum, he explained was, “I felt that it was time to take Asia more seriously and think about how Asia can continue to make contributions to human society and civilization.”

Highlights from the POSCO Asia Forum, a summary of Dr. Shin’s new book One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (Stanford University Press 2010), and Dr. Shin’s thoughts on relations between the two Koreas are also covered in the interview.

Effectively addressing emissions from deforestation will require both an international policy - to address the global nature of the climate problem, and domestic policies - to effectively respond to the international policies and take unilateral action; Suzi will be focusing on the former. 

The key challenges in reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) policy are monitoring, permanence, and additionality - leakage and adverse selection as well as the risks involved if REDD is linked explicitly to international carbon markets.  They propose an international system based on national baselines, temporary rewards for protection and externally replicable monitoring and illustrate the potential outcomes in terms of  additional carbon storage, the cost of emissions reductions, and transfers of resources between countries.  Suzi will also briefly discuss how national governments might respond to an international policy of this type. 

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Suzi Kerr graduated from Harvard University in 1995 with a PhD in Economics. Following that she was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland - College Park from 1995 through 1998. From 1999 to 2009 Kerr co-founded and was Director of Motu. She has been a visiting scholar at Resources for the Future (USA), Victoria University, and, from Jan - August 2001, in the Joint Center for the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT.

Suzi Kerr is a Visiting Professor in the Economics Department at Stanford University and a Senior Research Associate in Stanford's Program in Energy and Sustainable Development.  She is also a Senior Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in New Zealand. 

The Chinese health care system has experienced profound changes like retrenchment of state financial support in the past decades. These changes have prompted the Chinese media and some academics to suggest that patients have a relatively low level of trust in physicians in today's China. In this colloquium, Dr. Tam reports the results of his survey of patient trust in physicians in Beijing's public hospitals. The survey was conducted by Horizon Research Group between November 2009 and January 2010, and 434 patients were interviewed.
 
The survey asked the respondents their degree of trust regarding the following three dimensions: physician agency, competence, and information provision. The survey finds a relatively high level of patient trust in physicians in Beijing public hospitals. Additionally, the survey data highlight three major determinants of patient trust in physicians, namely exposure to negative media reports about physicians and hospitals; the patient's self-assessed health status; and the patient’s level of education and income.
 
Waikeung Tam received his Ph.D. in political science at the University of Chicago in 2009. He is currently a Research Fellow at the LKY School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. His research focuses on public policy, political development, law and society, with special reference to China and Hong Kong. His research has been published in China Review, Asian Perspective, Journal of Contemporary Asia, and Law & Social Inquiry.

A founding father of the Soviet Union at the age of twenty nine, Nikolai Bukharin was the editor of Pravda and an intimate Lenin's exile. (Lenin later dubbed him "the favorite of the party.") But after forming an alliance with Stalin to remove Leon Trotsky from power, Bukharin crossed swords with Stalin over their differing visions of the world's first socialist state and paid the ultimate price with his life. Bukharin's wife, Anna Larina, the stepdaughter of a high Bolshevik official, spent much of her life in prison camps and in exile after her husband's execution.

In his most recent book Politics, Murder, and Love in Stalin's Kremlin: The Story of Nikolai Bukharin and Anna Larina (2010), Paul Gregory sheds light on how the world's first socialist state went terribly wrong and why it was likely to veer off course through the story of two of Stalin's most prominent victims. Drawn from Hoover Institution archival documents, the story of Nikolai Bukharin and Anna Larina begins with the optimism of the socialist revolution and then turns into a dark saga of foreboding and terror as the game changes from political struggle to physical survival. Told for the most part in the words of the participants, it is a story of courage and cowardice, strength and weakness, misplaced idealism, missed opportunities, bungling, and, above all, love.

Paul Gregory holds the Cullen professorship in the Department of Economics at the University of Houston and is a research professor at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin and a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The holder of a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University, he is the author or coauthor of nine books and many articles on the Soviet economy, transition economies, comparative economics, and economic demography. He serves on the editorial boards of Comparative Economic Studies, Journal of Comparative Economics, Problems of Post-Communism, and Explorations in Economic History. He was the President of the Association of Comparative Economic Studies in 2007.

Paul Gregory served as an editor of the seven-volume History of Stalin’s Gulag (published jointly by Hoover and the Russian Archival Service), which was awarded the silver human rights award of the Russian Federation in 2006 and  is an editor of the three volume Stenograms of the Politburo of the Communist Party (published jointly by Hoover and the Russian Archival Service). Two of his edited works – Behind the Façade of Stalin’s Command Economy and The Economics of Forced Labor: The Soviet Gulag -- have been published by Hoover Press. His collection of essays entitled Lenin’s Brain and Other Tales from the Secret Soviet Archives was published in 2007. His co-edited work with Norman Naimark, The Lost Politburo Stenograms, was  published by Yale University Press in 2008 as was his most recent work Terror by Quota. Professor Gregory’s current research on Soviet dictatorship and repression is supported by the National Science Foundation and by the Hoover Institution Archives.

This event is co-sponsored by the Forum on Contemporary Europe and the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies.

A graduate of the University of Tokyo and Stanford University, Yasuo Tanabe was Vice President of the Research Institute for Economy, Trade, and Industry in Tokyo and a career official at Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), later the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI). He will address Japan's policies on energy and climate change.

Emerging infectious diseases pose new international security threats because of the potential to inflict harm upon humans, crops, livestock, health infrastructure, and economies. H1N1’s impact on the Mexican economy in 2009, for example, has been estimated at almost 1% of Gross Domestic Product.

In this colloquium, Professor Ear will discuss his research on health and security in Southeast Asia, focusing on surveillance systems for emerging infectious disease. The experience of Cambodia and Indonesia demonstrates that the technical and human sides of surveillance systems are complementary inputs. Awareness of political, economic, and cultural issues is critical if policy-makers are to build more effective systems.

Visiting Assistant Professor Gireesh Shrimali from the Indian School of Business will be presenting work currently in progress at PESD: An examination of the role of the private sector in the diffusion of improved cookstoves through a comparative case study of private-sector commercial operations.  In particular, he will present relevant background, the methodology used in our research, and some preliminary results.

More than 2.4 billion people worldwide rely on traditional biomass for cooking, leading to negative health effects, lost productivity, and environmental harm. Improved cookstoves burn fuel more efficiently, requiring less fuel and resulting in decreased emissions.  Yet after more than twenty five years of effort, mainly by governments and NGOs, there has been little progress in disseminating such stoves more widely. Such programs have generally been less successful than anticipated due to issues of sustainability of subsidies, stove design, marketing and adoption of new stove products and scale of effort.  Increasingly, for-profit models run by the private sector are seen as potential solutions to these problems.  However, the participation of the private sector raises its own set of questions regarding how viable business enterprises can be created to serve lower income consumers.

Transitions from conflict raise hard questions about accountability for past violations.  Criminal prosecutions and other sanctions are increasingly prevalent, but amnesties remain common.  Some argue the latter are essential concessions to secure and sustain peace, given the threat of violent backlash from those potentially subject to repercussions, who typically seek to insulate themselves from liability.  Meanwhile, a conventional wisdom is that those who suffered harms want punitive justice and will tend to reject amnesty.  Backer and Kulkarni evaluate these claims using original data collected since 2002 via surveys of over 2,800 victims of war and repression in the diverse contexts of Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and South Africa.  Our initial finding is unexpected: similar majorities of the respondents in each country actually approve of amnesty.  Yet the backing is practical, ambivalent and qualified.  Most view amnesty as necessary to avoid further conflict, albeit unfair to victims.  This concern can be mitigated if perpetrators are subject to various forms of restorative and reparatory justice.  The willingness of many respondents to acquiesce to amnesty also coexists with a strong desire for accountability.  In addition, unparalleled panel survey data shows that such acceptance can decline dramatically over time, due to policy actions and inactions.  The analysis suggests the appeal of conditional amnesties of limited scope, backed by follow through on means of redress, including prosecutions.

In the Soviet Union speaking about the Gulag was forbidden until the period of perestroika. Nevertheless survivors of the Stalinist concentration camps wrote about the Stalinist practices of terror against the official politics of forgetfulness. Varlam Shalamov’s (1907-1982) prose, especially his “Kolyma Tales”, must be named along with Primo Levi or Jorge Semprun. But his texts rested unpublished for a long time and his aesthetic position is not as well-known as Solshenicyn.

Shalamov understood his own writing as an effort to find a new aesthetic after Kolyma, Auschwitz and Hiroshima. From his point of view, the author should be like Pluto, who came out of the Hades and told the truth about the fragility of man and civilization. The seminar will discuss Shalamov’s strategy of literary memory.

Dr. Franziska Thun-Hohenstein is a researcher at the Zentrum für Literatur- und Kulturforschung (ZfL, Centre for Literary and Cultural Studies), Berlin. Since 2008, she has been head of the East Europe department at ZFL, and manager of projects on "The Topography of Europe's Plurale Cultures in View of its Eastward Shift," and "Aporias of Forced Modernization: Figurations of the National in the Soviet Empire." Her research topics include memory and autobiographical writing in 20th century Russian literature, cultural topographies, secularization and resacralization between East and West, and figurations of the national in the Soviet Empire. Dr. Thun-Hohenstein studied Russian language and literature at Lomonossow University Moscow.

Her publications include Gebrochene Linien: Autobiographisches Schreiben und Lagerzivilisation (Broken lines: Autobiographical writing and camp-civilisation, Berlin Kadmos 2007). She is editor of the Collected Works of Varlam Shalamov; and, with W. St. Kissel, of Exklusion: Chronotopoi der Ausgrenzung in der russischen und polnischen Literatur des 20. Jahrhunderts (München 2006).