About the Event: In an international security environment marked by the heightened risk of nuclear weapons use and the weakening of the global nuclear order, reviving arms control between the two largest nuclear weapon States—the United States and Russia—is imperative. But under what circumstances might they return to the negotiating table? One school of thought holds that it may take another event like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to (re)awaken American and Russian leaders to the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and the need for greater restraint. Yet this claim, and the interpretation of Cold War history on which it rests, have not been subject to rigorous analysis in existing work. Using insights from cognitive psychology on the phenomenon of “wakeup calls,” I fill this gap by testing prevailing assumptions about the role of nuclear crises in driving arms control and assessing what the results mean for theory and practice. I show that these assumptions are not supported empirically and argue that future nuclear crises could have adverse effects on arms control depending on the priors of the leaders in office. These results challenge normative claims promoted in the scholarship on nuclear learning about the kinds of lessons nuclear crises teach and the influence of these events on elite inferential learning. In so doing, they demonstrate why electing leaders into office who have already learned the value of arms control is more likely to precipitate a return to the negotiating table than relying on external events to teach them.

About the Speaker: Sarah Bidgood is a postdoctoral fellow in technology and international security at the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), based in Washington, D.C. Her research focuses on nuclear diplomacy and military innovation in the United States, Russian Federation, and beyond. From 2023-2024, Sarah was a Stanton nuclear security fellow in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Security Studies Program. Prior to this, she served as director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, where she remains a non-resident scholar. Sarah’s work has been published as single and co-authored articles in journals such as International Security, Cold War History, and The Nonproliferation Review, as well as outlets including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Arms Control Today, and War on the Rocks. She is a coauthor of Death Dust: The Rise, Decline, and Future of Radiological Weapons Programs, which was published by Stanford University Press in December 2023. Sarah received her PhD in Defence Studies from King's College London and holds an M.A. in Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and an M.A. in nonproliferation and terrorism studies from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. She graduated from Wellesley College with a B.A. in Russian.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

About the Event: It has long been a presumption that the president enjoys vast powers with respect to decisions to intervene with military force abroad: the United States has an “imperial presidency”. This book challenges this conventional wisdom by arguing that this is more illusion than reality. Presidents have to operate in the shadow of Congress: they realize that if they act absent sufficient political cover from lawmakers, they leave themselves highly exposed should the use of force end poorly. Introducing a new measure of congressional sentiment toward the use of force, this book shows that while presidents frequently use force without formal approval from Congress, they are virtually always doing so pursuant to Congress’s informal support and urging. Moreover, it demonstrates that presidents are actually unwilling to undertake the largest interventions (full-scale war) absent the formal imprimatur of the legislator. Lastly, it shows that allies and adversaries pay close attention to domestic constraints on the president, yielding implications for deterrence and alliance reassurance. While in reality substantially constrained politically by Congress, presidents intentionally project a facade of imperialism in order to caution adversaries and hearten allies.

About the Speaker: Before coming to CISAC, Patrick was a Research Fellow with the International Security Program at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He completed his Ph.D. in political science at the University of California San Diego in May 2023, and his J.D. at the UCLA School of Law in 2017. For the summer of 2022, Patrick was a Summer Associate with the RAND Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy, and for the 2020-2021 academic year he was a Hans J. Morgenthau Fellow at the Notre Dame International Security Center.

Patrick’s research and teaching interests include congressional-executive relations in U.S. foreign policy, constitutional law, deterrence theory, and the U.S.-China relationship. He is especially interested in the influence of Congress in use of military force decisions, as well as the role of legal constraints in international security.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

Charles Mok is a Research Scholar at the Global Digital Policy Incubator of the Cyber Policy Center at Stanford University, a member of the Board of Trustees of the Internet Society, and a board member of the International Centre for Trade Transparency and Monitoring. Charles served as an elected member of the Legislative Council in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, representing the Information Technology functional constituency, for two terms from 2012 to 2020. In 2021, he founded Tech for Good Asia, an initiative to advocate positive use of technology for businesses and civil communities.

Kai-Shen Huang graduated from the University of Oxford and National Taiwan University, possessing interdisciplinary training in both anthropology and law. His research expertise includes China’s critical technology policies, the application of artificial intelligence in dispute resolution and public administration, and legal anthropology.

Florence G’sell is a visiting professor of private law at the Cyber Policy Center, where she leads the Program on Governance of Emerging Technologies. She also holds the Digital, Governance, and Sovereignty Chair at Sciences Po (France) and is a professor of private law at the University of Lorraine (currently on leave). G’sell began her academic career focusing on tort law, judicial systems, and comparative law. In recent years, her work has concentrated on digital law, particularly in the regulation of online platforms, the legal challenges posed by emerging technologies such as blockchain and the metaverse, and the concept of digital sovereignty.

Sergey Sanovich is a Hoover Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Before joining the Hoover Institution, Sergey Sanovich was a postdoctoral research associate at the Center for Information Technology Policy at Princeton University. Sanovich received his PhD in political science from New York University and continues his affiliation with its Center for Social Media and Politics. His research is focused on disinformation and social media platform governance; online censorship and propaganda by authoritarian regimes; and elections and partisanship in information autocracies. 

Margaret Tu also known as Nikal Kabala'an, hailing from Taiwan's Indigenous communities, is a dynamic young leader with a passion for interdisciplinary pursuits. She actively engages in Indigenous self-determination and decolonization, contributing to social justice movements and curating exhibitions at prestigious institutions like the Burke Museum and the Tateuchi East Asia Library. Margaret is an accomplished legal researcher with expertise in Intellectual Property laws and a keen interest in technology-related policies, including Artificial Intelligence and Data Governance.

PANELISTS
 

Janel Thamkul (Deputy General Counsel, Anthropic)

Janel Thamkul drives legal strategy on AI as Deputy General Counsel at Anthropic. She has built and currently oversees the legal teams counseling AI development, commercial deals, product deployment, regulatory/litigation, privacy, and more. She handles a wide range of issues across the company, from handling the company's employment matters, advising on government engagements, overseeing the defense of high stakes litigation to launching consumer and B2B products across the world. Prior to Anthropic, Ms. Thamkul was at Google where she led Google’s Research product counsel team and advised Google’s AI governance and ethics team. She earned her Bachelor's Degree in Fine Arts from UCLA, an Associate's Degree in Fashion Design from FIDM, and a J.D. degree from the University of California, Berkeley - School of Law.

Senator Scott Wiener (California State Senator)

Senator Scott Wiener is a California State Senator representing the eleventh district which includes all of San Francisco, Broadmoor, Colma, Daly City and parts of South San Francisco. First elected in 2016 and reelected in 2020, Wiener has focused on issues such as housing, transportation, LGBTQ+ rights, climate change, and AI governance. Most recently, Senator Wiener spearheaded SB1047 (“Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Intelligence Models Act”), a controversial AI regulation bill that passed both houses of the California State Assembly but was vetoed by Governor Newsom on September 29, 2024. Prior to his Senate role, Wiener served on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors and as a Deputy City Attorney. He received a bachelor’s degree from Duke University and a J.D. degree from Harvard Law School.

Mr. Gerard de Graaf (Senior Envoy for Digital to the U.S. and Head of the EU Office in San Francisco)

Currently the Senior Digital Envoy to the U.S. and head of the EU Office in downtown San Francisco, Gerard de Graaf has worked for the European Commission for more than 30 years. Prior to leading the San Francisco EU Office, Mr. de Graaf was Director of the European Commission’s Directorate-General “Communications Networks, Content & Technology” (DG CONNECT). There, he was responsible for the Digital Services and Digital Markets Act among other important digital policy issues. Mr. de Graaf has held many other high-ranking positions within the European Commissions including co-chairing two of the Trade and Technology (TTC) Council Working Groups and serving as Trade Counsellor on behalf of the European Commission’s Delegation to the United States. Mr. de Graaf is from the Netherlands. He studied Economic Geography and Regional Planning at the Free University in Amsterdam and European Economics and Law at the Catholic University Leuven (Belgium).

Professor Nathaniel Persily (James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School, Co-Director of the Cyber Policy Center)

Professor Nathaniel Persily is the Founding Co-Director of the Stanford Cyber Policy Center and its Program on Democracy and the Internet, as well as the Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project.  Professor Persily’s scholarship and legal practice address issues such as voting rights, political parties, campaign finance, redistricting, and election administration. He has served as a special master or court-appointed expert to craft congressional or legislative districting plans for many states. His current work, for which he has been honored as a Guggenheim Fellow, Andrew Carnegie Fellow, and a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, examines the impact of social media and artificial intelligence on political communication, campaigns, and elections.  His most recent book is a coedited volume with Joshua Tucker, Social Media and Democracy: The State of the Field and Prospects for Reform (Cambridge Press, 2020). He received a B.A. and M.A. in political science from Yale; a J.D. from Stanford, and a Ph.D. in political science from U.C. Berkeley.

Florence G’sell (Visiting Professor, Stanford Cyber Policy Center and Director of the Program on Governance of Emerging Technologies)

Florence G’sell is a visiting professor of private law at the Cyber Policy Center, where she leads the Program on Governance of Emerging Technologies. She also holds the Digital, Governance, and Sovereignty Chair at Sciences Po (France) and is a professor of private law at the University of Lorraine (currently on leave). Professor G’sell began her academic career focusing on tort law, judicial systems, and comparative law. In recent years, her work has concentrated on digital law, particularly in the regulation of online platforms, the legal challenges posed by emerging technologies such as blockchain and the metaverse, and the concept of digital sovereignty. Her research spans digital policies in both the EU and the U.S. She has edited and authored several notable works, including, most recently, “Regulating Under Uncertainty: Governance Options for Generative AI.” Her other recent publications include “AI Judges,” “The Digital Services Act: a General Assessment,” and a Council of Europe report entitled “The Impact of Blockchains for Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law.” Professor G’sell graduated from Sciences Po, is admitted to the Paris Bar, and holds a PhD in private law from the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.

Jacob Ward (Technology Journalist, Writer and Television Correspondent)

Mr. Ward is an established technology correspondent and writer. He was most recently NBC News Technology Correspondent from 2018 – 2023, where he reported for the TODAY Show, Nightly News, MSNBC, and NBCNews.com. From 2018 to 2019, Mr. Ward was a fellow with Stanford University’s Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and its partner institution, the Berggruen Institution. During that time Mr. Ward wrote, The Loop: How Technology is Creating a World Without Choices and How to Fight Back (Hachette; 2022), which looks at the effects of artificial intelligence on human psychology. Ward is also known for hosting a four-part PBS television series on the science and implications of bias called “Hacking Your Mind,” which looked at the concealed effects of technology on the human brain. Previously, Mr. Ward was a television correspondent for Al Jazeera and editor-in-chief of Popular Science.

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Reception to follow from 5:00pm - 6:30pm in the lobby in front of the William J. Perry Conference Room

About the event: New Cold Wars—the latest from the Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist and bestselling author of The Perfect Weapon David E. Sanger—is a fast-paced account of America’s plunge into simultaneous confrontations with two very different adversaries. For years, the United States was confident that the newly democratic Russia and increasingly wealthy China could be lured into a Western-led order that promised prosperity and relative peace—so long as they agreed to Washington’s terms. Now the three powers are engaged in a high-stakes struggle for military, economic, political, and technological supremacy, with nations around the world pressured to take sides. Yet all three are discovering that they are maneuvering for influence in a far more turbulent world than they imagined. Based on a remarkable array of interviews with top officials from five presidential administrations, U.S. intelligence agencies, foreign governments, and tech companies, Sanger unfolds a riveting narrative spun around the era’s critical questions. New Cold Wars is a remarkable first-draft history chronicling America’s return to superpower conflict, the choices that lie ahead, and what is at stake for the United States and the world.

About the speaker: David E. Sanger is national security correspondent for the New York Times and bestselling author of The Inheritance and Confront and Conceal. He has been a member of three teams that won the Pulitzer Prize, including in 2017 for international reporting. A regular contributor to CNN, he also teaches national security policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.

All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

We examine the intergenerational persistence of health in a low- and middle-income country, using longitudinal datasets from Indonesia. Our study evaluates both objective and self-reported health outcomes including self-reported health (SRH), hemoglobin levels, anemia, pulse, hypertension, and adiposity measures (BMI, overweight and waist-hip ratio) to assess the persistence of these conditions across generations.

Linking the health of adult children to their parents, we find significant differences in persistence between objective and subjective health measures. SRH and adiposity show stronger persistence, especially through maternal health, with daughters more susceptible. In contrast, objective measures like waist-hip ratio show minimal intergenerational persistence, suggesting individual lifestyle factors play a larger role. Daughters are more affected by maternal health in hemoglobin, anemia, pulse rate and BMI, while paternal health has a weaker but notable influence.

Our results remain robust across regions and ethnic groups. We conclude that the persistence of intergenerational health significantly hinders socioeconomic mobility, underscoring the need for maternal health-oriented health policies, including prenatal care, nutrition, and family-based interventions to reduce the transmission of chronic diseases such as anemia and obesity.

Currently, Dr. Huixia Wang is an associate professor at Hunan University. Her research interests encompass health economics, environmental economics, and development economics, with a particular focus on assessing the health impacts of pollution, climate change, and economic fluctuations in developing countries. She earned both her PhD and MA in economics from the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) largely remains an enigma to foreign policy specialists and diplomats alike. As a regional organization, ASEAN is often lambasted for prioritising consensus over clampdowns and regional resilience over allegiance to democratic values. Yet conversely, ASEAN remains a flagship institution in the pivot toward an emerging Indo-Pacific legal order - one which stands to play a vital role in shaping the dynamics of the world’s largest region, particularly as they relate to economic partnerships and trade. As it continues to strengthen its ties with India, China, the Republic of Korea, and Japan, in addition to the United States, ASEAN’s brand of centrality, plurality, and the ASEAN way, may yet emerge as the ‘primary force in shaping the Indo-Pacific architecture’ (as ASEAN itself intends). 

In this thought-provoking paper drawing from her extensive experience living, working and researching in Southeast Asia and with Southeast Asian scholars, Dr Staggs Kelsall considers these three aspects of ASEAN’s internal structure (centrality, plurality, and the ASEAN way) that she argues remain significant for Southeast Asia’s future in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Building upon the findings of multi-country studies undertaken with Southeast Asian researchers and her forthcoming work in the field of Business and Human Rights, Dr Kelsall provides an analysis of the norms, conventions and practices that have emerged and may yet emerge in support of ASEAN centrality, and its implications for several ASEAN members states, referring particularly to Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, amongst others. She then considers further how plurality evidenced in trans-local solidarities across Southeast Asia are shaping notions of centrality and challenging the ASEAN way. The paper argues that that a lot can yet be learned from ASEAN’s approach to regional ordering and Southeast Asian responses to it, at a time when ongoing threats of disorder require us to rethink any commitment to a multipolar world order anew.

Before joining SOAS, Dr. Michelle Staggs Kelsall worked at the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (Cambodia Country Office) and in leadership positions on applied research projects in the region. She was Deputy Director of the Human Rights Resource Centre for ASEAN (Jakarta), leading multi-country regional studies with researchers from across all ten ASEAN member states.

Michelle’s research has a strong socio-legal focus. She is deeply interested in how international law is understood and reconstituted in the Asia-Pacific, and particularly in Southeast Asia. She has published widely for several academic journals and presses, including the European Journal of International Law and Oxford University Press. Her forthcoming book, Capitalizing Human Rights, provides a genealogy of Business and Human Rights and analyses how it shapes contemporary responses to human rights harms.

Lunch will be served.

U.S. democracy has weakened during the 21st century, raising questions about whether this process risks eroding its foreign image, which centers on its longstanding democratic government. Scholars predict that democratic backsliding reduces favorable views of the U.S. among foreign citizens. They also claim that it undercuts the U.S.’s ability to win foreign policy cooperation from international partners. We assess these views based on a three-wave, multinational survey experiment fielded in twelve countries with 12,611 respondents. The results show democratic backsliding significantly decreases respondents’ favorability toward the U.S. However, there is little evidence that democratic backsliding decreases support for cooperating with the U.S. These findings suggest that while America’s image may suffer, its ability to garner support for critical policies remains resilient in some regions.

This event is part of our Contemporary Asia Seminar Series. This series hosts professionals in the fields of public and foreign policy, journalism, and academia who share their perspectives on pressing issues facing Asia today.

Speaker: 

Yusaku Horiuchi is a Professor of Government and Mitsui Professor of Japanese Studies at Dartmouth College. His research utilizes experimental designs and statistical methods to address diverse empirical questions in political science, particularly focusing on foreign/global public opinion, Japanese Politics, diversity, elections, and political methodology. He has published widely in top journals, including American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Political Analysis, and Science Advances, and authored two books. His research draws on data from Japan and other countries such as Australia, Israel, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. At Dartmouth, He teaches courses on Quantitative Political Analysis, Data Visualization with R, and the Politics of Japan. He holds an M.A. in international and development economics from Yale University and a Ph.D. in political science from MIT. He has also held visiting appointments at Keio University, ANU, and MIT.

Much of the scholarship about Park Chung Hee and South Korea's developmental state has focused on economic modernization. This talk complements that literature by highlighting the long-lasting legacies of authoritarianism for the political and social development of South Korean society. The talk first covers the consequences of dictatorship for the evolution of civil society. We then shift to the historical origins of the demographic crisis South Korea is facing today. The central purpose of the talk is to show how both civil society and family change were shaped profoundly by authoritarian policies during the Park Chung Hee era.

Paul Chang is Senior Fellow at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; and Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Association Senior Fellow at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Before joining Stanford, Chang was an associate professor of sociology at Harvard University. 

A sociologist by training, Chang’s research on South Korean society has appeared in flagship disciplinary and area studies journals. He is the author of Protest Dialectics: State Repression and South Korea’s Democracy Movement, 1970-1979 (Stanford University Press) and co-editor of South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (Routledge). His current work examines the diversification of family structures in South Korea.