Stanford University

Demographic Change in East Asia: Economic, Social, and Security Implications

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Japan leads, chased closely by South Korea, with China, on a vastly larger scale, not far behind. Not as mercantilist development states nor as threats to America's high-tech industry, but rather as the world’s most rapidly aging societies.  

A wave of unprecedented demographic change is sweeping across East Asia, the forefront of a phenomenon of longer life expectancy and declining birthrates that together yield a striking rate of aging. Japan already confronts a shrinking population. Korea is graying even more quickly. And although China is projected to grow for another couple of decades, demographic change races against economic development. Could China become the first country to grow old before growing rich? In Southeast Asia, Singapore also is confronting a declining birthrate and an aging society. Increasingly, Asia’s aging countries look to its younger societies, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, as sources of migrant labor and even wives. Those countries in turn face different demographic challenges, such as how to educate their youth for global competition.

The third Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue will focus on demographic change in the region and its implications across a wide range of areas, including economies, societies, and security. Asia’s experience offers both lessons and warnings for North America and Europe, which are facing similar problems. Questions to be addressed include:

  • What are the inter-relationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, savings rates, and public and private intergenerational transfers?
  • How and why do policy responses to population aging differ in Japan, South Korea, and across different regions of China?
  • What are the effects of demographic change on national institutions such as employment practices, pension and welfare systems, and financial systems?
  • What policies can or should be pursued to influence future outcomes?
  • How will demographic change affect security in the Asia-Pacific region?
  • How have patterns of migration impacted society and culture in East Asia, in comparative perspective?
  • How will demographic change influence the movement of people across the region and the prevalence of multicultural families?
  • What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from each other to improve the policy response to population aging?

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) established the Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue in 2009 to facilitate conversation about current Asia-Pacific issues with far-reaching global implications. Scholars from Stanford University and various Asian countries start each session of the two-day event with stimulating, brief presentations, which are followed by engaging, off-the-record discussion. Each Dialogue closes with a public symposium and reception, and a final report is published on the Shorenstein APARC website.

Previous Dialogues have brought together a diverse range of experts and opinion leaders from Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, India, Australia, and the United States. The first Dialogue examined the global environmental and economic impacts of energy usage in Asia and the United States. It also explored the challenges posed by competition for resources and the possibilities for cooperating to develop sustainable forms of energy and better consumption practices. Last year’s Dialogue considered the question of building an East Asian Community similar in concept to the European Union. Participants discussed existing organizations, such as ASEAN and APEC, and the economic, policy, and security implications of creating an integrated East Asia regional structure.

The annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue is made possible through the generosity of the City of Kyoto, the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, and Yumi and Yasunori Kaneko.

Kyoto International Community House Event Hall
2-1 Torii-cho, Awataguchi,
Sakyo-ku Kyoto, 606-8536
JAPAN

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Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue

What Do Ordinary Citizens Want: Democracy, Political Islam, or Democracy and Political Islam?

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Mark Tessler is Samuel J. Eldersveld Collegiate Professor of Political Science. He is also Vice Provost for International Affairs.   Professor Tessler specializes in Comparative Politics and Middle East Studies. He has studied and/or conducted field research in Tunisia, Israel, Morocco, Egypt, and Palestine (West Bank and Gaza).  He is one of the very few American scholars to have attended university and lived for extended periods in both the Arab world and Israel.  He has also spent several years teaching and consulting in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Professor Tessler also co-directs the Arab Barometer Survey project.  The first wave of Arab Barometer surveys, carried out in eight Arab countries and completed in 2009, was named the best new data set in comparative politics by the American Political Science Association in 2010.  The second wave of Arab Barometer surveys is currently under way.

Professor Tessler has also conducted research and written extensively on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He is the author of A History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, which won national honors and was named a “Notable Book of 1994” by The New York Times. An updated and expanded edition of this book was published in 2009.

Professor Tessler is General Editor of the Indiana University Press series in Middle East Studies. He is also on the editorial board of Public Opinion Quarterly and a number of other scholarly journals. He served from 1995 to 2004 as president of the American Institute for Maghrib Studies, which maintains research facilities in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco; is a past president of the Association for Israel Studies; and was a founding member of the Palestinian-American Research Center.

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Mark Tessler Vice Provost for International Affairs Speaker University of Michigan
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Why Sweden Did Not Build the Bomb: Testing the Swedish Case Against International Relations Theories

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Why did Sweden choose, in the late 1960s, to abandon its long-standing nuclear weapons plans? A number of historical investigations have analyzed some aspects of this issue, particularly as it related to the public political debate in Sweden and the formulation of the Swedish defense doctrine in the postwar years. Some studies have attempted to explicate, from a more overarching perspective, why Sweden opted not to develop anuclear weapons capability, but these efforts have generally been hampered by heavy dependence on secondary source materials consisting of published English-language works. Taken together, these studies provide a far-from-complete picture of Sweden’s historical nuclear weapons plans. The main reason for this lack of a comprehensive picture has been the paucity of primary sources. Today, however, the end of the cold war and the declassification of large parts of the relevant documentary record, especially concerning the technical preparations for nuclear weapons production, have created the prerequisites for a more penetrating analysis of this important historical issue. The purpose of this presentation is to summarize the research on Sweden’s plans to acquire nuclear weapons based on primary sources. This overarching analysis is then tested against International Relation theories which have sought to explain factors of proliferation and non-proliferation.

Thomas Jonter is Professor in International Relations at the Department of Economic History, Stockholm University. His research is focused on nuclear non-proliferation and energy security. He is also project leader for different educational and research programs in Russia with the aim to initiate academic courses and programs in nuclear non-proliferation at different universities in the regions of Tomsk and Jekaterinburg. These projects are carried out in a cooperation between Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Monterey, United States, and  Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).  Professor Jonter is also chair of the ESARDA (European Safeguards and Research Development Association) working group for Training and Knowledge Management. Currently he is a visiting scholar at The Europe Center at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University.

 

Audio Synopsis:

First, Professor Jonter explains that Sweden initiated nuclear weapons research in the 1950’s because of the presence of a large uranium supply, ample technological and scientific knowledge, and concerns about self-defense. He cites wide support for nuclear research during that time, including from Prime Minister Tage Erlander, the Defense Ministry, and the military. In 1945 the Swedish National Defense Research Establishment created plans for a nuclear weapons program within a civilian nuclear power program, necessitating high levels of cooperation between military and civilian entities.  Despite pressure from the United States to abandon nuclear research, uranium production began in 1955 along with the construction of two reactors. Eventually, social groups within Sweden protested and a debate emerged within Parliament, resulting in a decision that Sweden would only pursue research related to self-defense against the Soviet Union. Behind the scenes, however, nuclear weapons research carried on covertly for some time. Jonter addresses questions of whether the program was really weapons-based or simply scientific research, how the debates in Sweden were influenced by criticisms at home and abroad, the role of private investors in the Swedish nuclear research program, and the factors that ultimately allowed Sweden to publicly back away from a weapons program.

Professor Jonter then examines implications for the international system by analyzing the Swedish nuclear case in light of several international relations theories. He also considers the argument that "outward looking" states which are active in international trade are less likely to develop nuclear weapons. Jonter asserts that research on this topic would benefit from more historical analysis of primary resources, although the secret nature of nuclear records make them difficult to access.

 A question and answer period following the presentation addressed such issues as: How does the Swedish case study compare with the Danish case? Did the Swedish government tie its hands with a public decision not to pursue weapons development? Is there evidence of Sweden having to balance nuclear weapons research with other military expenses?  Why did the government switch from high levels of secrecy about the nuclear program decisions to a policy of openness and public discussion?

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Thomas Jonter

Department of Economic History
Stockholm University
SE-106 91 Stockholm
Sweden

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Professor of International Relations, Department of History, Stockholm University
Thomas2.jpg PhD

Thomas Jonter is Professor in International Relations at the Department of Economic History, Stockholm University. His research is focused on nuclear non-proliferation and energy security. He is also project leader for different educational and research programs in Russia with the aim to initiate academic courses and programs in nuclear non-proliferation at different universities in the regions of Tomsk and Jekaterinburg. These projects are carried out in a cooperation between Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Monterey, United States, and  Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).  Professor Jonter is also chair of the ESARDA (European Safeguards and Research Development Association) working group for Training and Knowledge Management. Currently he is a visiting scholar at The Europe Center at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University.

Anna Lindh Fellow, The Europe Center
Thomas Jonter Speaker
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Powering America: Does Nuclear Have a Future?

CISAC's Tom Isaacs participated in a discussion on nuclear energy in America for the World Affairs Council Northern California. 

Event Description:

The 8.9 earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on March 11, 2011 set in motion one of the largest nuclear disasters in almost three decades. It also renewed the debate over the future of nuclear energy in the US and abroad. With 104 nuclear power plants across the country, generating about 20 percent of America's energy, there is no doubt that we are currently dependent on nuclear energy, yet the debate over this highly contentious technology is far from resolved. The three panelists will discuss what this disaster means for the future of US energy. How will the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant shape future energy policies and public opinion, and are there existing renewable technologies capable of fulfilling the world’s energy needs? Will nuclear energy be the fuel of the 21st century, or a relic of the past?

Listen to the talk by clicking the link below. 

V. John White Executive Director Speaker Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies
Per F. Peterson Chair Speaker Department of Nuclear Engineering, UC Berkeley

Thomas Isaacs

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Affiliate
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Tom is Co-Principal Investigator for the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) Developing Spent Fuel Strategies (DSFS) project coordinating international cooperation on issues at the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle with emphasis on spent fuel management and disposal in Pacific Rim countries. Participants include senior nuclear officials from Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, Canada, and the United States.

Tom advises national nuclear waste programs on facility siting, communications, stakeholder engagement, and public trust and confidence. He has worked with the Canadian Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) for 15 years.

Tom was recently named as the Chair of the recently formed Experts Team to support Southern California Edison  at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station.

Previously Tom was a Consulting Professor at CISAC, lead advisor to the Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future, Member of the National Academy of Sciences Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board, Director of Planning at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and long time senior executive at the Department of Energy where he led the siting of Yucca Mountain as the nation’s candidate site for a geologic repository.

He has degrees in Engineering, Applied Physics, and Chemical Engineering from Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania.

 

Thomas Isaacs Consulting Professor Speaker CISAC
Seminars

Reversing the Brain Drain? The Movement of People and Skills in an Era of Economic Globalization

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About the seminar

Dan Wang's talk will examine the economic impact of skilled return migrants on their home countries. While much scholarship contends that members of skilled diasporas are ideally positioned to transfer knowledge and resources back to their home countries, Wang's research
suggests that many returnees are often unable and/or unwilling to do so. He will present findings from a novel 1997–2011 survey of over 4,250 former J1 Visa holders from over 80 countries. The principal outcome under study concerns how skilled returnees reapply and make use of the knowledge they gain abroad (in this case, the United States) upon reentry to their home countries. Specifically, he compares the knowledge transfer outcomes of returnees to those who stayed abroad, and contrasts returnees from different countries and industry contexts, including returnee entrepreneurs. Finally, Germany and China are used as comparative case studies of returnee skill transfer.

About the speaker

Dan Wang is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology at Stanford University. His principal research interests include economic sociology, organizations, globalization, technology, and social network analysis. His past research has examined the relationship between China's changing domestic patent laws and the country's R&D collaboration patterns, tactical diffusion through American social movement organization collaboration networks, knowledge transfer in academic co-authorship networks, and statistical methods for addressing measurement error in network analysis. He received is BA in sociology and comparative literature from Columbia University in 2007.

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Dan Wang Doctoral Candidate in the Department of Sociology Speaker Stanford University
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Bruce Jones and Francis Fukuyama on the World Bank's Development Report

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Bruce Jones will present on the World Bank's 2011 World Development Report, on "Conflict, Security and Development." The report, which is the World Bank's flagship annual research product, reviews and challenges previous Bank findings on the causes of conflict and fragility; provides new research findings on strategies for recovery from conflict and violence; and sets out a series of directions for national policy and international institutional reform. Dr. Jones will brief on these, as well as on the politics of research and implementation at the World Bank and the UN.

Dr. Bruce Jones is director and senior fellow of the NYU Center on International Cooperation, and senior fellow and director of the Managing Global Insecurity Program at the Brookings Institution. Currently, his is also the Senior External Advisor for the World Bank's Development Report (WDR) on Conflict, Security and Development. Jones will provide an overview and account of the WDR and will be joined by Dr. Francis Fukuyama who will participate as a discussant on the topic.

In March 2010, Jones was appointed by the United Nations Secretary-General as a member of the Senior Advisory Group to guide the Review of International Civilian Capacities.
Dr. Jones’ research focuses on US policy on global order and transnational threats; on multilateral institutions in peace and security issues; on the role of the United Nations in conflict management and international security; and on global peacekeeping, post-conflict operations and fragile state engagements.

Prior to assuming the Directorship of the Center, Dr. Jones served in several capacities at the United Nations. He was Senior Advisor in the Office of the Secretary-General during the UN reform effort leading up to the World Summit 2005, and in the same period was Acting Secretary of the Secretary-General’s Policy Committee. In 2004-2005, he was Deputy Research Director of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. From 2000-2002 he was Special Assistant to the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East peace process; and held assignments in the UN Interim Mission in Kosovo, and in the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.  

Dr. Jones has been interviewed by or cited in US and international media, including the New York Times, LA Times, Globe and Mail, BBC, CNN, Fox, NPR, and Al Jazeera.
Dr. Jones holds a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics; and was Hamburg Fellow in Conflict Prevention at Stanford University. He is co-author with Carlos Pascual and Stephen Stedman of Power and Responsibility: Building International Order in an Era of Transnational Threats (Brookings Press, 2009); co-editor with Shepard Forman of Cooperating for Peace and Security (Cambridge University Press, 2009); author of Peacemaking in Rwanda: The Dynamics of Failures; Series Editor of the Annual Review of Global Peace Operations (Lynne Reinner) and author of several book chapters and journal articles on US strategy, global order, the Middle East, peacekeeping, post-conflict peacebuilding, and strategic coordination.

He is Consulting Professor at Stanford University, Adjunct Faculty at the NYU Wagner School of Public Service, and Professor by Courtesy at the NYU Department of Politics.

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Stephen J. Stedman

CDDRL
Encina Hall, C152
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-2705 (650) 724-2996
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science
Stedman_Steve.jpg PhD

Stephen Stedman is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), an affiliated faculty member at CISAC, and professor of political science (by courtesy) at Stanford University. He is director of CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program in Democracy, Development and Rule of Law, and will be faculty director of the Program on International Relations in the School of Humanities and Sciences effective Fall 2025.

In 2011-12 Professor Stedman served as the Director for the Global Commission on Elections, Democracy, and Security, a body of eminent persons tasked with developing recommendations on promoting and protecting the integrity of elections and international electoral assistance. The Commission is a joint project of the Kofi Annan Foundation and International IDEA, an intergovernmental organization that works on international democracy and electoral assistance.

In 2003-04 Professor Stedman was Research Director of the United Nations High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change and was a principal drafter of the Panel’s report, A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility.

In 2005 he served as Assistant Secretary-General and Special Advisor to the Secretary- General of the United Nations, with responsibility for working with governments to adopt the Panel’s recommendations for strengthening collective security and for implementing changes within the United Nations Secretariat, including the creation of a Peacebuilding Support Office, a Counter Terrorism Task Force, and a Policy Committee to act as a cabinet to the Secretary-General.

His most recent book, with Bruce Jones and Carlos Pascual, is Power and Responsibility: Creating International Order in an Era of Transnational Threats (Washington DC: Brookings Institution, 2009).

Director, Fisher Family Honors Program in Democracy, Development and Rule of Law
Director, Program in International Relations
Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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Stephen J. Stedman Senior Fellow Moderator Stanford University

Francis Fukuyama

Encina Hall, C148
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

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Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Research Affiliate at The Europe Center
Professor by Courtesy, Department of Political Science
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Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science.

Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book In the Realm of the Last Man: A Memoir will be published in fall 2026.

Francis Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, and of the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He served as a member of the President’s Council on Bioethics from 2001-2004. He is editor-in-chief of American Purpose, an online journal.

Dr. Fukuyama holds honorary doctorates from Connecticut College, Doane College, Doshisha University (Japan), Kansai University (Japan), Aarhus University (Denmark), the Pardee Rand Graduate School, and Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). He is a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Rand Corporation, the Board of Trustees of Freedom House, and the Board of the Volcker Alliance. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration, a member of the American Political Science Association, and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married to Laura Holmgren and has three children.

(October 2025)

Global Populisms

A new project examining the global surge in populist movements and what it means for established democratic rules and institutions.
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Francis Fukuyama Senior Fellow Panelist Stanford University
Bruce Jones Director and Senior Fellow Speaker NYU Center on International Cooperation
Seminars

Innovations in Strengthening Local Economic Governance in Asia

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SPEAKERS
V. Bruce J. Tolentino - Chief Economist/ Director of Economic Reform and Development Programs at The Asia Foundation
Véronique Salze-Lozac'h - Regional Director of Economic Reform and Development Programs at The Asia Foundation
Nina V. Merchant - Assistant Director of Economic Reform and Development Programs at The Asia Foundation

Meet Asia Foundation economics experts as they share their experiences working with on-the-ground partners to enhance economic growth throughout Asia. The Foundation is recognized internationally for its innovative work on economic governance and a political economy approach to reform, including programs in regulatory reform, strengthening local economic governance, private sector development, anticorruption, trade liberalization, and promotion of private investment. The Foundation has developed one-of-a-kind economic reform and development strategies, projects, interventions, and activities designed to enhance and sustain economic growth, with particular attention to effective local economic governance.

Complimentary copies of Innovations in Strengthening Local Economic Governance in Asia will be available during the presentation. We hope you can join us for what promises to be a lively conversation about the future of Asia’s economy.

Co-sponsored by the Asia Foundation

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Seminars

Food, Trade, and Foreign Policy with Professor Walter Falcon

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Join Professor Falcon for a discussion of where our food comes from now, where it will come from in the future, and how these changes may affect international relations. Lunch will be provided!

Room 280A in the Law school (Crown Quadrangle, 559 Nathan Abbott Way)

Walter Falcon Speaker
Seminars

Does Democratization Imply Islamization? Lessons from Democratic Indonesia, the World’s Largest Majority-Muslim Country

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Indonesia has undergone democratization since 1998. Islamic political parties have re-emerged, but they have failed to gain significant support. National politics in Indonesia today are mainly secular. Yet religious values are held in high regard, and religious sentiments are expressed in books, films, fashions, and television programs, among other media. Why has this enthusiasm for religion not yielded a dominant role for Islamism as a political force? The popularity of Islamic political parties has actually declined. Why? What factors have enabled non-religious parties to maintain political prominence while, at the same time, society has become more pious?

Anies Baswedan, currently president of Paramadina University in Jakarta, is a leading intellectual figure in Indonesia. In 2008, the editors of Foreign Policy named him one of the world’s top 100 public intellectuals. As an advisor to the Indonesian government, he is a leading proponent of democracy and transparency in Indonesia, a creative thinker about Islam and democracy, as well as a charismatic leader in the educational field. Anies Baswedan will be on campus in May 2011 through the International Visitors Program sponsored by the Stanford Humanities Center and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He was nominated by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

Co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, the Southeast Asia Forum, and the Stanford Humanities Center

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Anies Baswedan President Speaker Paramadina University in Jakarta, Indonesia
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University IP Management and the Weakness of Science-based Entrepreneurship in Japan: Impact on Innovation

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About the seminar

Dr. Kneller's talk examines how national systems of industry-university cooperation impact innovation by comparing the Japanese system with that of the United States. Dr. Kneller has spent 13 years with a major science and engineering research center at the University of Tokyo. His talk shows how the Japanese system favors exclusive transfer of academic discoveries to established companies. It also examines other factors affecting science and engineering entrepreneurship in Japan. The talk references recent research showing that, at least in pharmaceuticals, new companies are more likely than old to pioneer the early development of novel technologies, especially those arising in universities. Japan's experience is relevant to current debates in America related to university management of intellectual property, entrepreneurship by faculty and students, appropriate ways to encourage industry-university collaboration, and the importance of peer review in allocating government university research funding.

About the speaker

Robert Kneller is a visiting professor at the Stanford Medical School and a professor at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST) at the University of Tokyo.

He worked at Tianjin Children's Hospital and the Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine from 1986 to 1987 before joining the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) in 1988. At NIH, he was a cancer epidemiologist and was also responsible for negotiating collaborative agreements with industry to develop NIH anti-cancer therapies. In 1997, an Abe Fellowship enabled him to study the Japanese system of university-industry cooperation at the University of Tokyo. Since 1998, he has been a professor with that university's Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology. His research focuses on university-industry cooperation, the role of start-ups in innovation, the discovery and commercialization of biomedical technologies, and conflicts of interests associated with academic entrepreneurship. More information about Dr. Kneller is available at his website. 

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Dr. Robert Kneller Professor Speaker Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST), University of Tokyo
Seminars
Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE)
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