-

Ronald I. McKinnon is an applied economist whose primary interests are international economics and economic development-with strong secondary interests in transitional economies and fiscal federalism. Understanding financial institutions in general, and monetary institutions in particular, is central to his teaching and research. His interests range from the proper regulation of banks and financial markets in poorer countries to the historical evolution of global and regional monetary systems. His books, numerous articles in professional journals, and op-eds in the financial press such as The Economist, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal reflect this range of interests.

 

 

Event Summary

Professor McKinnon first outlines the two major assumptions behind his paper (available on this page). First, that from December 2008 to August 2011, an inflow of "hot money" to emerging economies resulted from low U.S., European, and Japanese interest rates. Since then, the trend has reversed in the wake of the European banking crisis and bank lending has fallen. Second, the dollar remains the widespread central bank reserve currency despite instability in the U.S. system. 

 

McKinnon voices concern about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's zero interest rate policy, calling it an overreaction to the crisis and a "lose-lose" policy as it deters investment in the U.S. while simultaneously spurring destabilizing hot money flows to surrounding emerging markets. These countries are in turn forced to suppress interest rates to mitigate the inflows, and to build up dollar reserves to keep exchange rates in check. The zero interest rate policy also stimulates carry trades in commodities by speculators.

 

The belief that under a zero interest rate regime, inflation will stimulate the economy by bringing real interest rates to negative levels, is misplaced in McKinnon's view. He argues that this simply adds uncertainty and interferes with efficient bank intermediation, as banks hold high excess reserves and tighten lending, causing a procyclical contraction as has been seen in the United States and Europe. He contrasts this approach with China, which stabilized its economy following the “dot-com” bust by expanding rather than contracting bank credit. He criticizes U.S. pressure on China to appreciate or float its currency, asserting that these strategies would fail to reduce China's trade surplus.

 

McKinnon suggests that international reforms should target interest rates instead of exchange rates.  He recommends coordination between central banks of the major industrialized countries, especially the United States, European countries, and Japan - to collectively raise interest rates to approximately 2%. This would improve overall bank intermediation, and would benefit both central and peripheral countries in Europe.

 

A question and answer session following the talked addressed topics including: the likelihood of a coordinated effort between central banks; the potential effects of Kucinich's monetary reform proposal; the potential negative effects on real growth from carry trades, and whether this is a cause for concern; and the effects of bank borrowing trends in Europe on the European monetary system.

CISAC Conference Room

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9741 (650) 723-6530
0
William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics
R_McKinnon_headshot.jpg PhD

Ronald McKinnon is the William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics at Stanford University. Currently, he is researching trade and financial policy in less-developed countries, the transition from socialism in Asia and Eastern Europe, the foreign exchange market and U.S.-Japan trade disputes, European monetary unification and international monetary reform, and the economics of market-preserving federalism.

Recent books by McKinnon include The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control on the Transition to a Market Economy, 2nd edition (1993); The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates (1996); and Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan (with K. Ohno, 1997). Recent (1997) articles include "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The Overborrowing Syndrome" (with H. Pill); "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life after Death?" (1999); and "The Syndrome of the Ever-Higher Yen: American Mercantile Pressure on Japanese Monetary Policy" (with K. Ohno and K. Shirono, 1999). McKinnon teaches international trade and finance, economic development, money and banking, and financial control in developing and transitional socialist economies.

Ronald I. McKinnon William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics (Emeritus) Speaker Stanford University
Seminars
-

Recognizing the political consequences for Europe of Muslim immigration, and relying on a novel identification strategy, this paper investigates why Muslim assimilation into French cultural norms is incomplete, and provides experimental and survey evidence that reveals the low expected payoffs that Muslim immigrants in France receive for full assimilation. While the data show that rooted French people initially distrust Muslims (compared to a matched set of Christians)  in part due to their unwillingness to fully assimilate, the real source of Muslim reluctance to fully assimilate is their perception that in anonymous transactions (i.e., through French institutions) they will always be perceived as foreign and face discrimination.

Workshop paper is available to Stanford affiliates upon request by email to khaley@stanford.edu

David Laitin is the James T. Watkins IV and Elise V. Watkins Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. He received his B.A. in Political Science from Swarthmore College and his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley. His research interests include comparative politics, nation-state formation, ethnic conflict, and religion. Among his publications are Politics, Language and Thought: The Somali Experience (1977), Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change among the Yoruba (1986), Language Repertoires and State Construction in Africa (1992), Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (1998), and Nations, States and Violence (2007). Prof. Laitin has been a recipient of fellowships from the Howard Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Guggenheim Foundation, and the Russell Sage Foundation. He is an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences.

 

Event Summary

Professor Laitin opens the seminar by providing background on the research project that motivated the paper. This examined: whether Muslim immigrants in France faced unique social and economic barriers; the source of the barriers; and whether French republicanism exacerbated or lessened the barriers. He provides a brief summary of studies examining the first and third points, but the focus of his talk was on the second point: if there are higher barriers for Muslims, who is building them?

Professor Laitin then describes the study his research team carried out on a Senegalese population in France for 15 years, drawing on equal-sized groups of Muslims and Christians from similar social and economic conditions. Through a series of games and surveys, the team observed that within Senegalese Muslims in France, certain groups assimilate more than others, and those that assimilate less are treated worse by French individuals and institutions. Many of the Muslims expected to be treated less generously by French individuals, and reported more experiences of discrimination from French institutions, which Professor Laitin's team found was more difficult to overcome than individual discrimination. This group also exhibited stronger financial ties (measured by investments and remittances sent to Senegal from France) and emotional ties (measured by desire to be buried in Senegal rather than France after death). The results of the study are used to provide a series of decision rules and reward matrixes for incoming Senegalese Muslims, including the likelihood of penalties and rewards for assimilation, such as giving children French names.

During a discussion period following the presentation, such questions were raised as: Do the results of the study have more to do with the respondents being Muslim, or simply not being French - or, do other ethnic or religious groups have the same problems assimilating into French Catholic society? Is the example of preferences for burial locations more about ties to Senegal than lack of ties to France? How much of the effect is due to being black rather than Muslim? Will the results of the study change as the Muslim population in France increases? What has been the reception in France to the prohibition of collecting ethnographic data? Why is "incomplete assimilation" framed as a "response" to the discrimination - is it a choice or is it just the way things are? Where does the fault lie in the discrimination reported in the survey?

CISAC Conference Room

Department of Political Science
Stanford University
Encina Hall, W423
Stanford, CA 94305-6044

(650) 725-9556 (650) 723-1808
0
James T. Watkins IV and Elise V. Watkins Professor of Political Science
laitin.jpg PhD

David Laitin is the James T. Watkins IV and Elise V. Watkins Professor of Political Science and a co-director of the Immigration Policy Lab at Stanford. He has conducted field research in Somalia, Nigeria, Spain, Estonia and France. His principal research interest is on how culture – specifically, language and religion – guides political behavior. He is the author of “Why Muslim Integration Fails in Christian-heritage Societies” and a series of articles on immigrant integration, civil war and terrorism. Laitin received his BA from Swarthmore College and his PhD from the University of California, Berkeley.

Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Affiliated faculty at The Europe Center
David Laitin Speaker
Seminars
-

Why in the last ten years an increasing number of ethnic Germans have converted to Islam in Salafi mosques or, after converting elsewhere, have chosen to attend these famously conservative houses of worship? Most scholars explain the spread of Salafism in Europe primarily as a social protest engaged in by second- and third-generation immigrant Muslims who feel marginalized from mainstream society. This article argues instead that Salafism can best be understood as a fundamentalist religious movement which satisfies individuals’ spiritual, psychological, and sociological needs. It is not so different from other fundamentalisms, particularly in the attraction it holds for converts. Among the most attractive aspects for newcomers is Salafism’s anti-culturalist and anti-traditionalist bent, which allows ethnic Germans to move past their racialized assumptions about Muslims and embrace Islam without necessarily embracing immigrant Muslims. Unlike the great majority of mosques in Germany, which function as ethnic and national community centers, Salafi mosques create unique settings where piety— rather than ethnicity— defines belonging.

Esra Özyürek, is Associate Professor of Anthropology at the University of California – San Diego. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. Her work focuses on how politics, religion, and social memory shape and transform each other in contemporary Turkey and Germany. Her earlier work, Nostalgia for the Modern: State Secularism and Everyday Politics in Turkey (Duke Univ. Press, 2006), focused on the transformation of state secularism as Turkey moved from from the top-down modernization project of the 1930s to market based modernization in the 1990s. Currently she is undertaking a comparative ethnographic study of conversion to religious minorities, namely converts to Islam in Germany and to Christianity in Turkey. 

Co-sponsored by The Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

Workshop papers are available to Stanford affiliates upon request by email to  abbasiprogram@stanford.edu.

CISAC Conference Room

Esra Ozyurek Associate Professor of Anthropology Speaker UC San Diego
Seminars
-

Workshop papers are available to Stanford affiliates upon request by email to khaley@stanford.edu.

Abstract: This paper examines the contemporary Islamic revival in France, focusing on the emergence of a distinctive Muslim French identity and concomitant political imagination. Asserting their right to be piously and visibly Muslim in the public sphere, Muslim French revivalists reconfigure the relationship between Frenchness and Muslimness. In so doing, they imagine new ways of organizing the national polity, envisioning a novel relationship between minority ‘difference’ and citizenship that refuses to constrain Muslimness to the space of alterity.

Mayanthi Fernando is Assistant Professor of Anthropology at the University of California-Santa Cruz. She received her B.A. from Harvard University, and her M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. Her research interests include anthropology of Islam, politics and secularism, modernity and difference, postcolonial Britain and France, anthropology of freedom, anthropology of Western Europe, and multiculturalism. She is currently working on a book manuscript tentatively titled On The Muslim Question: Anxieties of the Secular Republic, which analyzes the forms of subjectivity, religiosity, and political community constituted by Muslim French revivalists, the legal, political, and institutional practices that comprise laïcité, and the ways in which these practices constrain pious Muslims, who are often caught in the structural and discursive tensions endemic to laïcité. Among her publications are Reconfiguring Freedom: Muslim Piety and the Limits of Secular Law and Public Discourse in France” (2010), “Exceptional Citizens: Secular Muslim Women and the Politics of Difference in France” (2009), and “The Republic’s ‘Second Religion’: Recognizing Islam in France” (2005).

 

Co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies

CISAC Conference Room

Mayanthi Fernando Professor of Anthropology Speaker University of California – Santa Cruz
Seminars
-

Joint Africa Table/CDDRL seminar

Andrew M. Mwenda is the founder,  Strategy and Editorial Director (SED) of The Independent Publications Limited, publishers of The Independent, East Africa’s leading current affairs newsmagazine. An admirer of Socrates and Frederick Von Hayek, he is an activist, a journalist, a columnist, a presenter of a prime time daily radio talk-show and a businessman.

Named by Foreign Policy among the Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2010, Mwenda was nominated by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader in 2008 and by the Africa Study Institute as an Archbishop Tutu fellow, a program for “Africa’s future leaders”. He has also won the International Press Freedom Award from the Committee to Protect Journalists “in tribute to his commitment to a free press in Uganda and the whole world” and the Outstanding Alumni Award from the British Council.

Philippines Conference Room

Andrew Mwenda Founder, Strategy and Editorial Director (SED) of The Independent Publications Limited Speaker
Seminars
-

The unprecedented rapid rate of scientific progress is creating new opportunities for transnational criminal and terrorist organizations to exploit advances in technology for unintended nefarious purposes. While much research has been dedicated on the common cyber security threats of today, little if any study has been devoted to next generation forms of technological crime and terrorism.

This discussion will provide an engaging and entertaining futurist perspective on the effects technological progress on crime, policing and national security. Specific topics to be covered include the criminal and terrorist implications of emerging technologies such as robotics, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, the human genome, virtual worlds, the social data revolution and ubiquitous computing.


Speaker Biography: Marc Goodman is a global thinker, writer and consultant focused on the disruptive impact of advancing technologies on security, business and international affairs.  Over the past twenty years, he has built his expertise in next generation security threats such as cyber crime and cyber terrorism working with organizations such as Interpol, the United Nations, NATO, the Los Angeles Police Department and the U.S. Government.  Marc provides a front seat view into the digital underground and insights into the emerging technological, geopolitical, and security trends shaping our common future.

Mr. Goodman frequently advises industry leaders, security executives and global policy makers on transnational cyber risk and intelligence and founded the Future Crimes Institute to inspire and educate others on the security implications of newly emerging technologies.  In addition, Mr. Goodman serves as the Chair for Policy, Law and Ethics at Silicon Valley’s Singularity University, a NASA and Google sponsored educational venture dedicated to using advanced science and technology to address humanity’s grand challenges. 

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Marc Goodman Chairman and Founder Speaker Future Crimes Institute
Seminars
-

Joan Casanovas will provide an analysis of the evolution of the current Spanish economic crisis and the way this crisis is presented by the media. The focus will be on Spain's financial solvency and that of its financial institutions, as seen by someone who has been immersed in the situation from the outset.

A recent article about Spain's economic crisis can be found in the Oct. 20th NY Times article, "As Spain Faces a Possible Recession, Criticism of Its Central Bank is Growing"

The RSVP deadline has been extended to Monday, April 30th.

CISAC Conference Room

Joan Casanovas Arbó CFO (ret.) Speaker Grupo Catalana Occidente
Seminars
-

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard has been a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics since 2002 and is also a senior associate at the Rhodium Group, a New York-based research firm. Before joining the Institute, he worked with the Danish Ministry of Defense, the United Nations in Iraq, and in the private financial sector. He is a graduate of the Danish Army's Special School of Intelligence and Linguistics with the rank of first lieutenant; the University of Aarhus in Aarhus, Denmark; and Columbia University in New York.

He is author of The Accelerating Decline in America's High-Skilled Workforce: Implications for Immigration Policy (2007) and coauthor of US Pension Reform: Lessons from Other Countries (2009) and Transforming the European Economy (2004) and assisted with Accelerating the Globalization of America: The Role for Information Technology (2006). His current research focuses on European economies and reform, pension systems and accounting rules, demographics, offshoring, high-skilled immigration, and the impact of information technology.

Jacob Kierkegaard interviews on the European financial crisis can be found in the following NPR articles:

"Why European Leaders are Suddenly Backing More Bank Bailouts"

"Ireland Went Down with its Banks.  Why Didn't that Happen in the U.S.?"

"Is This Europe's 'Lehman Moment'?  Banks Don't Think So"

 
 

CISAC Conference Room

Jacob Kirkegaard Research Fellow Speaker Peterson Institute for International Economics
Seminars
-

This Arab Reform and Democracy research seminar will examine Lebanon’s failure to reform the electricity sector against the background of elaborate networks of client-patron relations, failing state institutions, and governance issues. It will explain how the electricity services have become a major element feeding Lebanon’s political and social fragmentation.

The electricity sector reform has featured as a major priority for several consecutive governments in Lebanon. Despite declared attempts at reform and legislative commitments, the state-run Electricité du Liban (EDL) still fails to ensure a reliable electricity supply, and has become a longstanding symbol of the profound political crisis affecting the Lebanese state and its institutions. The consequences of a failing sector and unreliable electricity supplies presents a number of impediments, the most important of which are those affecting Lebanon’s economic and social development and its regional integration. The failure to provide a systematic distribution of electricity also exacerbates inequalities along geographic, socio-economic and confessional lines.  During the summer of 2011, the electricity issue was brought to the public attention due to a major controversy in the current Lebanese government headed by Prime Minister Mikati. A last-minute deal prevented the government's fall and earmarked $1.2 billion of state financing to support some investments in infrastructure. However, practical implementation on the ground is still hindered by the patronage networks benefitting from the current status quo.

Katarina Uherova Hasbani is the Safadi Scholar of the Year at Stanford's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy, and is an energy policy expert focusing on MENA countries and their policies of energy diversification. She has worked for the European Commission, where she held several positions dealing with internal and external aspects of European Union’s energy policy, including the Cabinet of EU’s Energy Commissioner. Previously, she worked for Edelman and Cambridge Energy Research Associates, both consulting companies. She holds a master’s degree from the Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po) in Paris, a master’s degree in international relations and diplomacy and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Matej Bel University in Slovakia. She is currently based in Beirut where she lectures at the American University for Science and Technology.

 Read more about Katarina’s appointment as a Safadi Scholar of the Year here.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Katarina Uherova Hasbani Safadi Scholar of the Year at Stanford's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy Speaker
Seminars
-

The implementation of the New START Treaty is going well and is a testament to the ongoing reset in relations with the Russian Federation.  As one Treaty provides a foundation for the next, the United States believes the vital cooperation will set the stage for further, deeper reductions.  This will not be easy.  The path from Prague was fast and straight and the first tasks along the way were long overdue or clear. Now, the path is moving into uncharted terrain.  The United States is committed to pushing forward with the momentum gained from New START. 


Speaker bio:

Rose Gottemoeller was sworn in as the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, in April 2009.  She was the chief negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation.  She was a senior associate in the Carnegie Russia & Eurasia Program in Washington, D.C., where she worked on U.S.–Russian relations and nuclear security and stability.  She also served as the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from January 2006 to December 2008.

Formerly Deputy Undersecretary of Energy for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation and before that, Assistant Secretary for Nonproliferation and National Security she was responsible for all nonproliferation cooperation with Russia and the Newly Independent States. She received a B.S. from Georgetown University and a M.A. from George Washington University.

Reminder: Rose Gottemoeller delivers the Drell Lecture at 4:00pm on Thursday, October 27 in Tresidder Union. No RSVP is required.

CISAC Conference Room

Rose Gottemoeller Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance and 2011-2012 Drell Lecturer Speaker
Seminars
Subscribe to Seminars