The more a country depends on aid, the more distorted are its incentives to manage its own development in sustainably beneficial ways. Cambodia, a post-conflict state that cannot refuse aid, is rife with trial-and-error donor experiments and their unintended results, including bad governance—a major impediment to rational economic growth. Massive intervention by the UN in the early 1990s did help to end the Cambodian civil war and to prepare for more representative rule. Yet the country’s social indicators, the integrity of its political institutions, and its ability to manage its own development soon deteriorated. Based on a comparison of how more and less aid-dependent sectors have performed, Prof. Ear will highlight the complicity of foreign assistance in helping to degrade Cambodia’s political economy. Copies of his just-published book, Aid Dependence in Cambodia, will be available for sale. The book intertwines events in 1990s and 2000s Cambodia with the story of his own family’s life (and death) under the Khmer Rouge, escape to Vietnam in 1976, asylum in France in 1978, and immigration to America in 1985.

Sophal Ear was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum in 2011 and a TED Fellow in 2009. His next book—The Hungry Dragon: How China’s Resources Quest is Reshaping the World, co-authored with Sigfrido Burgos Cáceres—will appear in February 2013. Prof. Ear is vice-president of the Diagnostic Microbiology Development Program, advises the University of Phnom Penh’s master’s program in development studies, and serves on the international advisory board of the International Public Management Journal. He wrote and narrated “The End/Beginning: Cambodia,” an award-winning documentary about his family’s escape from the Khmer Rouge. He has a PhD in political science, two master’s degrees from the University of California-Berkeley, and a third master’s from Princeton University.

The advent of ubiquitous networking and computation and deepening globalization since the 1990s has eroded traditional international security architectures by multiplying conflict surfaces and empowering new actors. This talk describes research in the context of track 1.5 dialogues with Russia and China that aims to develop shared frameworks for understanding escalatory models of cyber conflict, sources of instability, and feasible approaches for risk mitigation. It will argue that cyber has made deterrence much more complex, and now, increased information assurance and new legal or normative constraints on state behavior are likely necessary for effective cross-sectoral deterrence. Finally, it suggests three tasks for cyber norms or confidence and security building measures to attenuate instability.

John Mallery is a research scientist at the Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He is concerned with cyber policy and has been developing advanced architectural concepts for cyber security and transformational computing for the past decade. Since 2006, he organized a series of national workshops on technical and policy aspects of cyber.

As part of The Europe Center's ongoing lecture series "Europe Now", Stanford professor Margaret Cohen will bring to light documentary narratives by dive pioneers of the 1920s-1950's (Beebe, Hass, Taillez, Diolé), and why these documentarians turn to a poetic imagery of marvels and enchantments to express aspects of human perception. 

Professor Cohen is Professor of Comparative Literature

Co-sponsored by The Stanford Humanities Center

The U.S.-Japan relationship is not much in the headlines these days—and when it is the stories seem to focus on issues, such as Okinawa and beef, that have bedeviled ties seemingly for decades. But, in the midst of seismic shifts in Asia-Pacific security and global economic relations, shouldn’t the two countries be talking about something else?

Many in American industry have thought so and in 2009 the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan released a white paper calling for a new set of discussions with Japan directed at capturing the innovation and growth potential of the emerging global Internet economy. Accompanying the call were a set of over 70 specific recommendations for discussion in areas ranging from privacy, security, intellectual property, spectrum management, cyber security to competition—an agenda for the future not the past.

The paper found resonance with the new Democratic Party government in Japan and the Obama administration that were searching for a new direction and vocabulary for U.S.-Japan economic relations and were mindful that partnership with Japan in this area strengthened the U.S. hand in dealing with preemptive attempts elsewhere to define rule of the road for the Internet and “cloud computing.” 

The Dialogue was formally launched in the fall of 2010 and its third plenary session is taking place in Washington, D.C. October 16 to 19, 2012. Professor Jim Foster is participating in the Dialogue as a leading member of the U.S. private sector delegation to the talks. He will be coming to Stanford immediately following the joint industry-government meeting on October 18 (the governments will continue in closed-door session through the 19th) and will offer his analysis and insight into the discussions in Washington and their implications for future cooperation between Japan and the U.S. industry in the cloud computing field and for the two governments on challenging issues of broader Internet governance.

Jim Foster is currently a professor in the Graduate School of Media and Governance at Keio University, where he teaches and researches on U.S. foreign policy issues and global Internet policy. He is the co-director of Keio’s Internet and Society Institute. Foster worked as a U.S. diplomat from 1981 to 2006, serving in Japan, Korea, the Philippines and at the U.S. Mission to the EU. He was director for corporate affairs at Microsoft Japan from 2006 to 2011. He is a former vice president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan and a co-author of the ACCJ White Paper on the Internet Economy.

A yearlong U.S. effort to engage nuclear-armed North Korea culminated in the announcements by Washington and Pyongyang of the so-called “Leap Day” understanding on February 29. A fortnight later, North Korea announced it would launch a multi-stage rocket carrying what the reclusive state said was a civilian satellite. After an intensive four weeks of public and private calls on Pyongyang from the other five members of the Six-Party Talks not to proceed, the April 13 launch failed, but triggered unanimous censure from the 16-member UN Security Council. Ambassador Davies will describe the talks leading to the Leap Day understanding, the fallout from North Korea’s aborted launch, and where this leaves our efforts to hold Pyongyang to its denuclearization and other promises. He will also discuss Washington’s views of new leader Kim Jong Un, the likelihood of change in North Korea, and diplomatic prospects in this season of political transition in key Six Party states.
 
Glyn Davies, a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, was appointed by Secretary of State Clinton as Special Representative for North Korea Policy in November 2011.
 
Ambassador Davies joined the Foreign Service in 1980 and has served in numerous posts in Washington and overseas, including the position of Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs from 2007 to 2009. From 2009 to 2011, he was U.S. Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency and United Nations agencies in Vienna.
 
Ambassador Davies holds a BS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University and a masters degree from the National War College in Washington, D.C.
 

Although Czechoslovak politicians in exile frequently proclaimed towards the end of the Second World War an ambition for their country to mediate between the U.S.S.R. and the Western powers, their deeds and utterances, imprinted in Soviet, Czech and other archival materials, testify to something else.  With their faith in the West fatally shaken by Munich 1938, which was only amplified by the U.S. failure to liberate Prague in May 1945, they relied on a Soviet security guarantee against any further German aggression and on Stalin's promises of non-interference in internal Czechoslovak affairs. However, numerous concessions to the Soviet wishes and a growing domestic power of the Czechoslovak Communists undermined this cardboard castle that in the atmosphere of the growing East-West confrontation finally collapsed in February 1948.

Co-sponsored by the Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies (CREEES) and the Department of History

In this second seminar of the Europe Center's "European and Global Economic Crisis Series", Professor Hanno Lustig will discuss how a conspicuous amount of risk is missing from the price of financial sector crash insurance during the 2007-2009 crisis and that the difference in costs of put options for individual banks, and puts on the financial sector index, increases fourfold from its pre-crisis level. He provides evidence that a collective government guarantee for the financial sector lowers index put prices far more than those of individual banks, explaining the divergence. By embedding a bailout in the standard option pricing model, observed put spread dynamics is closely replicated. During the crisis, the spread responds acutely to government intervention announcements.