-

 Abstracts will be posted on Friday, May 31.

Speakers:

Daniel Khalessi

Recipient of The Firestone Medal for Excellence in Undergraduate Research

 “The Ambiguity of Nuclear Commitments: The Implications of NATO's Nuclear Sharing Arrangements on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty”

 

Daniel Reynolds

Recipient of The William J. Perry Prize

“More with Less: Prioritizing U.S. Navy Global Presence with Reductions in Defense Spending”

CISAC Conference Room

Seminars
-

Parties in pluralist democracies face numerous political issues that citizens may be split on, but most models of party competition assume a simple, often one-dimensional structure. A new, inherently multidimensional model of party strategy is presented, where parties compete by selectively emphasizing policy issues. Issue emphasis is determined by two distinct goals: mobilizing the party’s core voters and broadening the support base. Optimal issues for this purpose lie in between idealtypical positional and valence issues, as they need to be relatively uncontroversial within the party, while at the same time widely supported in the electorate at large. The capacity of an issue to promote both goals is captured by an integrated index labeled “issue yield.” A model based on this index is tested on a 27-country comparative dataset combining mass surveys and manifesto scores from the 2009 European Election Study. Results of multilevel tobit regressions suggest that issue yield is a powerful indicator of party strategy.

 

Lorenzo De Sio is Assistant Professor at LUISS Guido Carli University in Rome. His main interests are in elections, public opinion and voting behaviour, both in Italy and in comparative perspective, with a specific focus on models of voting behaviour and party competition. A member of the Scientific Committee of the Italian National Election Studies (ITANES), he is the coordinator of the Italian Center for Electoral Studies (LUISS Rome), and a member of the Methods Working Group for the “True European Voter” international research project. Besides his two books in Italian, his scientific publications include articles appearing in Comparative Political Studies, West European Politics, South European Society and Politics, Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica. He has been Visiting Research Fellow at the University of California – Irvine, and Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute.

Encina Hall West
Room W208 (second floor)

Lorenzo De Sio Assistant Professor Speaker LUISS Guido Carli University in Rome
Seminars
-

Interactions between global supply chains, land use, and governance: the case of soybean production in South America

Rapid growth in global soybean demand has had a profound impact on land cover in South America over the last three decades, contributing to a 30 million hectare increase in soybean planted area during this period. Much of this new soybean area came at the expense of native vegetation in the Amazon, Cerrado, and Chaco forests and savannas. The goal of my dissertation is to integrate theories from agricultural economics, land change science, and economic geography to better understand the economic and institutional mechanisms that influence the location and impact of soybean production in South America at multiple scales. In particular, I aim to: i) link changes in international demand, consumer preferences, and macroeconomic conditions to local changes in soybean area in South America through the study of soybean supply chains, and ii) understand how supply chains create or enforce land use institutions and market mechanisms.

I show that a country’s use of GM soybean technology influences how competitive that country is in foreign soybean markets. Trade relationships, in turn, interact with supply chain configurations to mediate producers’ exposure to consumer preferences in importing countries and opportunities to tap into additional niche markets for environmentally responsible soybeans. This cyclical feedback between trade relationships and land use helps determine the overall environmental impact of soybean production in a particular country. I also find that differences in land tenure and environmental institutions in the Brazilian Cerrado and Amazon influence the development of agglomeration economies in soybean production. Where agglomeration economies occur, they act to create positive externalities related to prices, information, and access to resources for farmers, which increases the total factor productivity and local profitability of agriculture. The organization of the supply chain in each county, in turn, influences the enforcement of environmental regulations through the type of actors being involved and their sustainability commitments.

 

Reception to follow around 5:30pm Y2E2 Second Floor Terrace (entrance between rooms 235 adn 239) 

 

Y2E2 299

Energy and Environment Building - 4205
473 Via Ortega
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

0
PhD student, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment & Resources
RGarrett.jpg MA

Rachael Garrett is a 3rd year PhD student in the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources. Rachael earned her Bachelor of Arts in History and Environmental Analysis and Policy at Boston University, Magna Cum Laude, where she was a University Scholar and earned the Franklin C. Erickson Prize for Excellence in Geography. She later obtained her Master in Public Administration in Environmental Science and Policy from Columbia University. She is the current recipient of the Richard L. Kauffman and Ellen Jewett IPER Fellowship.

Rachael studies the economic and institutional determinants of soybean production in Brazil. To develop a more well-rounded understanding of these issues she incorporates multiple spatial scales in her analysis, including: local case studies, regional modeling, and macroeconomic analysis.  Garrett presented some preliminary research on the macroeconomic drivers of soybean planted area in Brazil at the Association of American Geographers Annual Conference in April 2010 and is currently focusing on developing the local and regional scales of her dissertation. This summer Garrett will be returning to Brazil for three months to conduct additional interviews with soy farmers.

Rachael Garrett Speaker
Seminars
-

Germany has always been too strong or too weak for Europe. Now it is Number One again, but what a difference 70 years of democratic development and European integration have made. Merkel's Germany is no "Fourth Reich", and the political class knows it. If she isn't "triangulating" like Bill Clinton, Merkel "leads from behind" like Obama. After two murderous grabs for hegemony, Germany is an accidental great power - so strong because France, Britain, Italy and the rest are so weak.

Oksenberg Conference Room

Josef Joffe Speaker
Seminars
-

Abstract: Taiwan (the Republic of China) has been changing with the times. So has its diplomacy. Having served his country for more than 40 years in various important diplomatic posts under different administrations, Ambassador Chen is one of Taiwan’s most seasoned diplomats. He joins us to share his personal experience and perspectives of Taiwan’s diplomacy. It is a historical review, but also an attempt to explore the future. Ambassador Chen believes that the diplomacy of Taiwan is unique because of its unique background. Although it should be defined by its own people, the country has been heavily influenced by the Chinese Mainland and the United States of America. How to promote Taiwan’s interests while preserving its identity and dignity, and conducting the balancing exercises in an asymmetric international environment has always been the crux of diplomacy in Taiwan. Ambassador Chen’s insights will allow us a better understanding of diplomacy in Taiwan, its successes and frustrations and presenting a possible roadmap for the future.

C.J. Chen is the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (1999-2000). He has also served as Taiwan’s de facto Ambassador to the United States (2000-2004) and European Union (2004-2006). Having spent most of his career in the Foreign Ministry, Mr. Chen is regarded as one of Taiwan’s most accomplished diplomats and an expert on U.S./Taiwan relations. He was educated in Taiwan, Britain, Spain and the US, and has extensive experience representing his nation in the United States. He began his first tour of duty in Washington, D.C. in 1971 and was later a key member of the team that negotiated with the United States government for the future relations between Taiwan and the U.S. after the U.S. switched diplomatic ties from the Republic of China (ROC) to the People’s Republic of China) in 1979. Mr. Chen was heavily involved in communicating with the U.S. Congress during the implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) which still serves as the back bone and framework for U.S./ Taiwan relations. In addition to Mr. Chen’s diplomatic experience, he was also selected by the Kuomintang (KMT), to be a member of the Legislative Yuan, where served under both the blue (KMT) and green (DPP) administrations.

CISAC Conference Room

Ambassador C.J. Chen Founder, Taipei Forum and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (1999-2000) Speaker
Seminars
-

Please note date change to June 6

On December 16, 2012, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which was swept from power in 2009 by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) after more than half a century of dominance, roared back with a landslide of its own. Entering the election with only 118 of 480 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet, the LDP emerged with a whopping 294 seats, more than a third of them captured by first-time candidates. Moreover, the LDP and its long-time coalition partner, the Komeito, jointly surpassed the two-thirds threshold needed to override vetoes from the upper house, the House of Councillors, where the coalition lacks a majority—at least until the upper house election this July. The incumbent DPJ, which had taken power with an even more impressive 308 seats in 2009, retained just 57 seats this time, barely managing second place after three difficult years in government.

How did the LDP do it? In this presentation, Smith will highlight the key findings of two chapters on the LDP’s candidate selection and election results from the forthcoming volume, Japan Decides 2012 (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), edited by Robert Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner.

 

Philippines Conference Room

Walter H. Shorenstein
Asia-Pacific Research Center
Encina Hall, Room C331
616 Serra St.
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-5656 (650) 723-6530
0
Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow
Daniel_Smith_3x4.jpg PhD

Daniel M. Smith was a postdoctoral fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2012–13 academic year.

He is an expert on Japanese politics whose research interests include political parties, elections and electoral systems, candidate recruitment and selection, and coalition government. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, he will be completing a book manuscript about the causes and consequences of political dynasties in developed democracies, with a particular focus on Japan.

Smith earned his PhD and MA in political science from the University of California, San Diego, and his BA in political science and Italian from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has conducted research in Japan as a Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology research scholar at Chuo University (2006–2007), and as a Fulbright IIE dissertation research fellow at the Institute of Social Science at the University of Tokyo (2010–2011). After completing his fellowship at Shorenstein APARC, he will join the Department of Government at Harvard University as an assistant professor.

CV
Daniel M. Smith Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Speaker Stanford University
Seminars
-

The structure of the Chinese economy changed dramatically between 2005 and 2009.  It changed from an export-investment leading economy to a domestic-demand leading economy.  Before 2004 China was a huge factory because of its cheap and abundant labor.  After 2010 it has become a huge market because of the rapid increase of their income level.

Not only the rapid growth of China’s GDP, but the rapid increase of the number of middle-class-income people in China whose GDP per capita surpass 10 thousand USD gave Japanese companies many business chances since 2010. Even under the worst political condition between Japan and China after Senkaku territorial dispute most of Japanese companies keep increasing their investment in China because Chinese local governments are so eager to invite the investment of Japanese companies. If Japan and China can realize the normalization of Sino-Japan relations, their win-win relationship should be accelerated.

The Xi Jinping’s administration started officially in March. Chinese ordinary people’s complaint against the Chinese government seems very strong mainly because the former administration put off the resolution of many important problems including the corruption of governmental officials, environmental deterioration, economic inequality. Xi Jinping’s administration should work on these difficult problems. In such a situation it is important for China to normalize Sino-Japan relations to enhance the economic stability.

 

Kiyoyuki Seguchi is the Research Director of the Canon Institute for the Global Studies. His research focuses on the Chinese economy and relations between the United States, China and Japan. He worked for the Bank of Japan from 1982 to 2009. He was the Chief Representative of the Representative Office of BOJ in Beijing from 2006 to 2008, the international visiting fellow at RAND Corporation (Los Angeles, CA) from 2004 to 2005. He received a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo.

Philippines Conference Room

Kiyoyuki Seguchi Research Director Speaker Canon Institute for the Global Studies
Seminars
-
With a new government now in place, what are the prospects for financial reform in China, will interest rates become market-based, will the Renminbi become convertible, will banks begin to price capital economically? The talk explores these themes and discusses some of the obstacles to change that the new government faces.
 
At its core China's financial system is all about its banks. They are the provider of capital to all sectors of the Chinese economy, whether by outright loans or acting as both underwriter and principal investor in the country's growing bond markets. They operate now, as they have always operated, within the narrow framework of interest and currency rates set not by markets but by administrative fiat. For most of their history they have acted as simple conduits of capital based on an economic blueprint contained in a central plan. Some 15 years ago the entities then called specialized banks began to be restructured into what were meant to be commercial banks modeled after international, and particularly, US best practice. The outbreak of the global financial crisis not only called into question this ongoing effort, the massive economic stimulus had the effect of washing away the past decade long effort to transform what had been policy banks into more economically-oriented commercial banks. 
 
Please click here to download the talk slides. 
 
ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Dr. Carl Walter has contributed articles to publications including Caijing, the Wall Street Journal and the China Quarterly. He is also the co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundations of China's Extraordinary Rise (2012) and Privatizing China: Inside China's Stock Markets (2005).

Dr. Walter lived and worked in Beijing from 1991 to 2011, first as an investment banker involved in the earliest SOE restructurings and overseas public listings, then as chief operation officer of China's first joint venture investment bank, China International Capital Corporation. For ten years he was JPMorgan's China chief operating officer as well as chief executive officer of its China banking subsidiary.

Dr. Walter holds a PhD in political science from Stanford University, a certificate of advanced study from Peking University and a BA in Russian Studies from Princeton University.

 

McClelland M104
Knight Management Center
655 Knight Way
Stanford, CA 94305

Carl Walter Speaker
Seminars
-

Catherine Ashton will be introduced by Gerhard Casper.

 

Co-sponsored by CISAC, Hoover Institution and CREEES.

CISAC Conference Room

Catherine Ashton High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the European Union; Vice-President of the European Commission Speaker
Seminars
-

About the topic: The worldwide web has its origins in American science and ingenuity.  The greatest concentration of cyber power on the planet today is at Fort Meade in eastern Maryland.  So why are American networks so vulnerable?  And what will be needed from government, industry and private citizens to make them less so?

About the Speaker: As director of the Central Intelligence Agency, General Michael Hayden was responsible for overseeing the collection of information concerning the plans, intentions and capabilities of America’s adversaries; producing timely analysis for decision makers; and conducting covert operations to thwart terrorists and other enemies of the US.

At Chertoff Group, General Hayden will use his broad geographic and political knowledge to brief clients on intelligence matters worldwide – including developments in cybersecurity – that may affect their businesses. “The best defense is knowing what your enemies are up to, before they know you know it. For today’s CEOs,” he adds, “there is also the challenge of figuring out who and where your enemies are.”

Before becoming director of the CIA, General Hayden served as the country’s first principal deputy director of national intelligence and was the highest-ranking intelligence officer in the armed forces. Earlier, he served as commander of the Air Intelligence Agency, director of the Joint Command and Control Warfare Center, director of the National Security Agency and chief of the Central Security Service.

General Hayden graduated from Duquesne University with a bachelor’s degree in history in 1967 and a master’s degree in modern American history in 1969.  He also did postgraduate work at the Defense Intelligence School conducted by the Defense Intelligence Agency.  He is currently a distinguished visiting professor at George Mason University.

CISAC Conference Room

Michael Hayden Principal, The Chertoff Group; Former Director, CIA; First Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence; Former Director, National Security Agency Speaker
Seminars
Subscribe to Seminars