Stanford University

Beyond Emboldenment: The Effects of Nuclear Weapons on State Foreign Policy

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Abstract: What happens to the foreign policies of states when they acquire nuclear weapons? Despite its critical importance, this question has been understudied. This paper offers a new typology of the effects of nuclear weapons on foreign policy, and hypothesizes the circumstances in which these effects might be observed. I distinguish between five conceptually distinct foreign policy behaviors—aggression, expansion, independence,bolstering and steadfastness—-and show theoretically how nuclear acquisition may facilitate each of these behaviors. The typology therefore allows scholars to move beyond simple claims of "nuclear emboldenment," and allows for more nuanced predictions and empirical examinations of the ways in which nuclear weapons affect the foreign policies of current and future nuclear states. I demonstrate the utility of this typology using a "hard" case: the United Kingdom. I show that the acquisition of a deliverable nuclear capability in 1955 significantly affected British foreign policy. Britain did not use its nuclear weapons for aggression or expansion, instead seeking to use its nuclear weapons to maintain its forward conventional posture at lower cost and thus postpone retrenchment. However, Britain did use its nuclear weapons to bolster its junior allies in the Middle East, Far East and Europe, and to exhibit greater independence from the United States and greater steadfastness in responding to challenges to its position-—most dramatically during the 1956 Suez crisis.

About the Speaker: Mark Bell is a PhD candidate in Political Science at MIT and a research fellow with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. His research examines issues relating to the causes and consequences of nuclear proliferation, U.S. and British foreign policy, and international relations theory, and has been funded by organizations including the Smith Richardson Foundation and the Tobin Project. He holds a Masters in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School, where he was a Frank Knox Memorial Fellow, and a B.A. in Politics, Philosophy, and Economics from St. Anne's College, Oxford University.

 


Beyond Emboldenment: The Effects of Nuclear Weapons on State Foreign Policy
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Beyond Emboldenment: The Effects of Nuclear Weapons on State Foreign Policy
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Encina Hall (2nd Floor)

Mark Bell research fellow with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Speaker Harvard University
Seminars

Armageddon Insurance: Cold War Civil Defense in the United States and Soviet Union, 1945-1991

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Abstract: This book project is the first historical study of the postwar Soviet civil defense program, and an innovative comparative account of American and Soviet civil defense. It offers a comparative institutional history of the superpowers’ civil defense drawing on previously unexamined Soviet and American archival sources. It offers findings that challenge common assumptions about the logic driving the two nations’ potentially apocalyptic nuclear flirtation, such as that that a mutual recognition that nuclear war would be suicidal prevented the leaders of the two superpowers from embracing civil defense. In actuality, Moscow and Washington developed their civil defense policies in accordance with domestic political concerns, sometimes in direct contradiction to their declared strategic doctrines or military planning. The strange history of Cold War civil defense shows that the superpowers made their nuclear weapons policies as the result of power struggles between different institutions pursuing their own narrow self-interests, with results that imperiled the survival of civilization itself.

About the Speaker: Edward Geist received his Ph.D. in history from the University of North Carolina in May 2013. Previously a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the RAND Corporation in Washington DC, he is a native of Oak Ridge, Tennessee. His research interests include emergency management in nuclear disasters, Soviet politics and culture, and the history of nuclear power and weapons. His dissertation, a comparative study of Soviet and U.S. civil defense during the Cold War, draws upon previously unexamined archival sources to examine the similarities and differences in how the two superpowers faced the dilemmas of the nuclear age. Edward is also interested in the potential uses of simulation and modelling for historians and is developing a piece using these techniques to explore the potential historical implications of the the U.S. and Soviet Union's use of qualitatively different technical assumptions to model strategic nuclear exchanges. A previous recipient of fellowships from Fulbright-Hays and American Councils to conduct research in Moscow and Kyiv, he has published articles in the Journal of Cold War Studies, Russian Review, and the Bulletin of the History of Medicine.

Encina Hall (2nd Floor)

Edward Geist MacArthur Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow PhD CISAC
Seminars

Predicting Chinese Foreign Policy: Signals and Outcomes, 1949-2010

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Abstract: This dissertation chapter examines signaling credibility in Chinese foreign policy over 1949-2010.  The analysis is based on two new datasets: all 2,000 diplomatic interactions between the United States and China over 1949-2010 and sentiment trends in all 50,000 People's Daily articles on the United States over 1949-2010.  I find that China's bellicosity toward the United States is a reliable predictor of conflict initiation the following month.  I also find that Chinese foreign policy is responsive to urban unemployment.  I find no evidence that China's signaling credibility is affected by its military capabilities.

About the Speaker: Erin Baggott is a Zukerman predoctoral fellow at CISAC for 2014-2015.  She is completing her PhD in international relations at the Harvard University Department of Government.  She studies Chinese foreign policy with techniques from computational social science and machine learning.  Her dissertation examines the sources of trust, distrust, cooperation, and conflict in US-China relations over 1949-2012, using day-level datasets of actions and perceptions on both sides.

Previously, she completed a MSc in Modern Chinese Studies at the University of Oxford and a BA in Government and Economics at Harvard College.  She speaks fluent Mandarin Chinese and has conducted several summers of field research in Beijing.

 


Predication Chapter, Erin Baggott
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Encina Hall (2nd Floor)

Erin Baggott Zukerman Predoctoral Fellow CISAC
Seminars

Tackling China's Non-Communicable Diseases

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This symposium will highlight the public health threat posed by China’s non-­‐ communicable disease (NCD) epidemic, and focus on the role of research in developing an effective response. Prevalent NCDs (stroke, diabetes, heart disease, and cancer) share common origins linked to lifestyle changes and increasing disease risk factors spurred in part by successful economic development. These conditions and their complications, however, place a high burden on health care resources and reduce social capital growth. An effective response is possible, but will require a novel approach focusing on maintaining human function and wellness, strategies that impact multiple NCDs, new models of health care delivery, and greater integration of public health and clinical care.

Featured speakers include Prof. Linhong WANG (China Center for Disease Control), Prof. Lixin JIANG (National Centre for Cardiovascular Diseases), Prof. Yangfeng WU (Peking University Clinical Research Institute) Prof. Randall S. STAFFORD (Stanford Prevention Research Center), Prof. Sanjay BASU (Stanford Prevention Research Center).

Stanford Center at Peking University

Randall S. STAFFORD Professor Moderator Stanford Prevention Research Center
Seminars

Change in North Korea: Pyongyang Façade or More

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Since Kim Jong Un came to power, interest in North Korea (DPRK) has increased but it is difficult to judge whether the growing range of media reports and the commentaries based on them are accurate or not. Spending almost 30 months in the DPRK from March 2012, mainly in Pyongyang but also making visits outside, offered an opportunity to collect up-to-date materials, especially photographs, which may offer an insight into the changes taking place. These might offer a new angle to be considered and hopefully stimulate further discussion about what is really happening in the DPRK now.

Mike Cowin, former deputy head of mission at the British Embasy in Pyongyang, joined the Korea Program at Stanford's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research  Center as the 2014–15 Pantech Fellow. He is a specialist on Korea and Japan, has been a member of the Research Cadre of the Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) of the United Kingdom since 1988. He has also served in the British embassies in Tokyo from 1992 to 1997, in Seoul from 2003 to 2007, and in Pyongyang as deputy head of mission since March 2012.

He has spent most of his career in London working on policy related research, providing advice to relevant policy desks and acting as the interface between the FCO and academic and research institutions.

Philippines Conference Room,
Encina Hall 3rd floor,
Stanford University

Mike Cowin

Shorenstein APARCStanford UniversityEncina Hall, Room E301Stanford,  CA  94305-6055
(650) 723-9404 (650) 723-6530
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Mike Cowin, former deputy head of mission at the British Embassy in Pyongyang, North Korea, joins the Korean Studies Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center as the 2014–15 Pantech Fellow. Having spent twenty years covering Korean issues for the British Government, Cowin brings immense insight not only on North Korea but also on Northeast Asia. During his time at the Center, Cowin will focus his research on economic and social deverlpment that he has seen taking place in North Korea while serving there. Cowin, a specialist on Korea and Japan, has been a member of the Research Cadre of the Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) of the United Kingdom since 1988. He has also served in the British embassies in Tokyo from 1992 to 1997, in Seoul from 2003 to 2007, and presently in Pyongyang, as deputy head of mission, since March 2012. He has spent most of his career in London working on policy related research, providing advice to relevant policy desks and acting as the interface between the FCO and academic and research institutions.

Pantech Fellow, 2014-2015
Speaker 2014-15 Pantech Fellow, Stanford University
Seminars
Korean Studies Colloquium Series

Religion, Division of Labour and Conflict: Anti-Semitism in German Regions over 700 Years

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The paper that will be presented at this seminar, “Religion, Division of Labour and Conflict: Anti-Semitism in German Regions over 700 Years,” is co-authored by Luigi Pascali.

Part of the Economic History Seminar Series, co-sponsored by The Europe Center.

Landau Economics Building, Room 351

Sascha Becker Professor of Economics and deputy director of the ESRC Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) Speaker University of Warwick, UK
Seminars

**CANCELLED** Seminar with Fabian Waldinger

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Part of the Economic History Seminar Series, co-sponsored by The Europe Center.

Fabian Waldinger Associate Professor of Economics Speaker University of Warwick, UK
Seminars

A Vision of the Growth Process in a Technologically progressive Economy: the United States, 1899-1941

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Nicholas Craft will present new estimates of TFP growth at the sectoral level and an account of sectoral contributions to overall productivity growth, from his paper co-authored by Gerben Bakker (London School of Economics) and Pieter Woltjer (Wageningen University).  They improve on Kendrick (1961) in several ways including expanding the coverage of sectors, extending estimates to 1941, and better accounting for labor quality.  The results have important implications including that the pattern of productivity growth was generally ‘yeasty’ rather than ‘mushroomy’, that the 1930s did not experience the fastest TFP growth of the 20th century, and that the role of electricity as a general purpose technology does not explain the ‘yeastiness’ of manufacturing in the 1920s.

The link for a PDF copy of the paper may be found below.

Part of the Economic History Seminar Series, co-sponsored by The Europe Center.

Paper: A Vision of the Growth Process in a Technologically progressive Economy: the United States, 1899-1941
Download pdf

Landau Economics Building, Room 351

Nicholas Crafts Professor of Economics and director of the ESRC Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) Speaker University of Warwick, UK
Seminars

From Saffron to Development? Causes and Consequences of the Indian Elections

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Abstract: 

The recently concluded 16th Lok Sabha elections in India was the biggest democratic election in history. It produced the first absolute majority in Indian national elections in thirty years and catapulted BJP and its leader Narendra Modi to power after a sustained presidential style campaign. The election decisively changed the political landscape in India and seemed to reverse a longstanding trend towards fragmentation of Indian politics along lines of region and caste.

What are the underlying dynamics that made this historic vote possible? Can BJP and Modi deliver the economic growth and employment that they promise? What are the necessary reforms and challenges that confront the new government? Will BJP remain focused on development, or will the older cultural and majoritarian agenda of the RSS and its associated organizations re-appear? What is the prospects for India’s multiple minorities in this new dispensation?

These and other questions will be debated by a panel of three Stanford based academics. 

 

Speaker Bios:

Thomas Blom Hansen (Moderator/Speaker) is the Reliance-Dhirubhai Ambani Professor of Anthropology at Stanford University. He is also the director of the Center for South Asia at Stanford. He has worked extensively on Hindu-Muslim relations, communal violence and the rise of Hindu nationalism in India. His books include The Saffron Wave. Hindu Nationalism and Democracy in Modern India (Princeton University Press 1999) and Wages of Violence, Naming and identity in postcolonial Bombay (Princeton University Press 2001).

 

 

Harish S. Wankhede (Speaker) research interest is to imagine theoretical spaces by interconnecting certain approaches and themes of social science mainly, Justice, politics of recognition and redistribution, secularism, nationalism and the Caste identity. The emphasis of his work is on the marginalized communities in India especially the Muslims, Dalits and the Tribals.

Currently, he is a visiting scholar at the Center for South Asia, Stanford University and working on a research project on the Dalit Panthers’ Movement in Maharashtra. He teaches at the Department of Political Science, University of Delhi.

 

Alexander Lee (Speaker) is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. In the fall of 2014 he will be an assistant professor of political science at the University of Rochester. His research focuses on the historical factors governing the success or failure of political institutions, particularly in South Asia and other areas of the developing world. His work has been published in World Politics and the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Alex earned his PhD from Stanford in 2013. More information on his work can be found on his website.

 

This event is hosted by the Center for South Asia and the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. 

 

CISAC Conference Room

Thomas Blom Hansen Director Moderator Center for South Asia
Harish S. Wankhede Visiting Scholar Speaker Center for South Asia

Alexander Lee

Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow, 2013-14
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Alexander Lee's research focuses on the historical factors governing the success or failure of political institutions, particularly in South Asia and other areas of the developing world. His dissertation examined the ways in which colonialism changed the distribution of wealth in Indian society, and the ways in which these changes affected the development of caste identities. Additional research areas include the study of colonialism and European expansion in a cross- national perspective, and the causes of political violence, especially terrorism. His work has been published in World Politics and the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Alex earned his PhD from Stanford in 2013. More information on his work can be found on his website: https://people.stanford.edu/amlee/

Alexander Lee Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Seminars

The Allies, the European Resistance and the Origins of the Cold War in Europe

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The presentation summarizes preliminary findings of my research project on Allied policy towards resistance groups during World War II and its impact on post-war political and ideological divisions.

The research is linked with a multiplicity of historical problems: the western Allies’ balance of political and military considerations during World War II; the Anglo-American cooperation and competition in the field of intelligence; the use of special operations as an instrument of foreign policy, especially in regard to countries where the development of resistance movements had a strong impact on post-war settlement (e.g. Yugoslavia, Greece and Poland); the politics of communist movements between war and revolution in Central and Eastern Europe; the relationship between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union and the Allies’ perception of the latter.

The particular contribution of the project is to bring together aspects which are usually addressed separately: the different national scenarios, whose connections and mutual influence will be investigated; the two Western intelligence agencies, which have been researched mostly in separate ways by scholars of the corresponding nationalities; the Soviet and Western allies’ policies.

Tommaso Piffer is a Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellow at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard and at the University of Cambridge. Among his publications is a biography of Alfredo Pizzoni, the political chief of the Italian Resistance (Il Banchiere della Resistenza, 2005), an account of the relationship between the Allies and the Italian Resistance during World War II (Gli Alleati e la Resistenza Italiana, 2010) as well as several essays. He also edited a book in memory of Victor Zaslavsky on Totalitarian societies and democratic transition (Società totalitarie e transizione alla democrazia, 2011, with Vladislav Zubok) and the collection of essays on the political mass murder of Porzus (Porzus. Violenza e resistenza sul confine orientale, 2012). He is an affiliate at the Harvard Center for European Studies and a contributor to the cultural insert of the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.

Open to Stanford affiliates

Sponsored by the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies and co-sponsored by The Europe Center

History Corner, Room 307

Tommaso Piffer Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellow, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard and University of Cambridge Speaker
Seminars
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