Stanford University

Research in Progress (RIP): "Can private insurers fail to cream-skim the public option? Evidence from the individual mandate in Germany."

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Please note: All research in progress seminars are off-the-record. Any information about methodology and/or results are embargoed until publication.

Abstract:

Conventional wisdom suggests that if private health insurance plans compete alongside a public option, they may endanger the latter's financial stability by cream-skimming good risks. Documenting cream-skimming in dual insurance systems is challenging because of the co-existence of selection and moral hazard. I use a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on exogenous variation in the propensity of choosing private health insurance to address this challenge. The empirical setting is Germany, where there exists an unsubsidized non-group for-profit private health insurance market in parallel to a statutory alternative. Federal regulation mandates individuals with income below an annually set threshold to enroll into the statutory system. I do not find compelling support for concerns of cream-skimming by private insurers. Using a discrete choice model of demand for private insurance, I explore heterogeneous preferences and long-term contract design of private insurers as potential explanations for this optimistic result about insurance design.

Maria Polyakova Assistant Professor Health Research and Policy
Seminars

Research in Progress (RIP): "Trends and Effects of the Use of Biologic Therapy for the Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis"

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Please note: All research in progress seminars are off-the-record. Any information about methodology and/or results are embargoed until publication.

Abstract:

Ulcerative colitis is typically treated with medications including steroids and immunomodulators; patients refractory to medications undergo curative surgical resection of the colon and rectum. In 2005, biologic therapy was approved for ulcerative colitis as it improves short-term remission rates, but the long-term clinical benefit is unknown. The aims of the study are to assess the effect of biologics on the need for surgery in ulcerative colitis, describe treatment patterns for ulcerative colitis, and measure the economic impact of biologic therapy in the management of the disease.  Results demonstrate an increase in the use of biologics for ulcerative colitis, no change in rates of surgery for ulcerative colitis after approval of biologics, and dramatically increased overall costs.

Cindy Kin
Seminars

Turmoil and Opportunities in the Middle East: A View from the Pentagon

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**Please note that the event time has been changed to 4:30-6:30pm.**

Abstract

The Middle East security landscape is as complex and challenging as ever: The rise of ISIL; ongoing instability in Syria and Iraq; the framework of a nuclear agreement and the challenges of Iran's destabilizing activities. Dr. Spence will discuss how the U.S. Defense Department approaches these immediate challenges, as well as the impact of longer-term challenges and opportunities in the region. Dr. Spence will also discuss the role of the Defense Department in supporting political reform in the Middle East.

 

Speaker Bio

matthewspence
Dr. Matthew Spence was appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy in February 2012.  He is the principal advisor to the Secretary of Defense for Middle East policy, including Iraq, Syria, Iran, Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf states.  Prior to that, Dr. Spence worked at the White House on the National Security Council as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for International Economic Affairs and as Senior Advisor to two National Security Advisors. Dr. Spence is the co-founder of the Truman National Security Project. He has served as a Lecturer in International Relations at Oxford University, and has been widely published in international affairs. Trained as a lawyer, Dr. Spence also practiced criminal and international law in California, and served as a law clerk for Judge Richard Posner. A Marshall Scholar and Truman Scholar, Dr. Spence received his doctorate in International Relations from Oxford University; J.D. from Yale Law School; and B.A. and M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford University. He was born and raised in southern California.

Matthew Spence Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy
Seminars

Personal and Party Representation in Contemporary Europe: Effects on Intra-party Dynamics

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ABSTRACT:

This study explores the relationship between elected representatives and the parties they belong to in the European context. It uses an elite cross-national survey, exploring the way elected representatives perceive their representative role and construct their perceptions of representation with regards to party unity. In order to bypass the "no-variance" problem in recorded votes, the study makes use of a legislator's sequential decision-making model, according to which party unity is not considered an end-result, but rather a process. Using attitudinal data on legislators’ perceptions and attitudes, the study shows that representatives often feel a tension between different, competing foci of representation – mainly party representation versus all other foci. It then examines how elected representatives reconcile this tension; how they are assisted by internalized perceptions of their role; and the effect of various institutional factors in this process.   

 

SPEAKER BIO:

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Reut Itzkovitch-Malka is a visiting scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. She is also a postdoctoral scholar from the Israel Institute. Her research interest centers on political representation from a comparative politics perspective, with a specific focus on the following two major topics. The first is legislative studies. Her main contribution in this regard is a large-scale, cross national comparative research focusing on legislators’ perceptions of representation and on the link between such perceptions and party unity. This research, which she conducted for her dissertation, uses a novel decision-making sequential model for the analysis of legislative attitudes and behavior. Using this model the research provides a first-time inside look into the dynamics surrounding party unity and allows us to gauge the importance of legislators’ representational role perceptions in shaping their behavior. Her second research interest revolves around gender and political representation. While investigating a broad range of issues related to gender and politics – such as women’s descriptive representation, the adoption of gender quotas for women and the gender gap in voting – Reut specializes in the substantive representation of women.

Reut received a Ph.D. in political science from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in 2014, where she won the President Fellowship for outstanding doctoral students. She holds an M.A. with honors in political science from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a B.A with honors in political science and history also from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. 

Postdoctoral Scholar (CDDRL and Israel Institute) Postdoctoral Scholar (CDDRL and Israel Institute)
Seminars

Book Talk: "The Shared Society" feat. Former President of Peru Alejandro Toledo

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**Watch livestream here**

*Purchase book here*

Watch live streaming video from bccconferencechannel at livestream.com

Abstract

Latin America has gone through a major transformation in the past two decades. According to the United Nations, with the discovery of new oil and mineral deposits and increases in energy exports, manufacturing, and tourism, Latin America's economic growth and development will increase, and the region's global influence will become greater and greater.

In The Shared Society, Alejandro Toledo, whose tenure as president of Peru helped spur the country's economic renaissance, develops a plan for a future Latin America in which not only is its population much better off economically than today but the vast 40 percent of its poor and marginalized are incorporated into a rising middle class, democratic institutions work more effectively, and the extraordinary ecosystem of Latin America is preserved.

Speaker Bio:

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Alejandro Toledo served as the President of Peru from 2001 to 2006 and has been honored by the U.S. Senate for his policies during that tenure. He has held positions at the World Bank and the United Nations and was a Visiting Scholar in International Affairs at Harvard University as well as at Johns Hopkins University and a Senior Fellow and Distinguished Visiting Lecturer at Stanford University and the Brookings Institution. Toledo founded and continues to serve as the President of the Global Center for Development and Democracy in Washington, DC. 

 

This event is sponsored by CDDRL, FSI, the Center for Latin American Studies and Redwood Press.

 

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Former President of Peru (2001-2006) Former President of Peru (2001-2006)
Seminars

Design Thinking, Social Change and Governance Revolution in India

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ABSTRACT
Delivering public services effectively by Vivek S.

Tamil Nadu is among the few states in India that provides basic public services such as schools, water, electricity, primary healthcare and transport almost universally.  These services function remarkably well, making a significant difference to the lives of people. In many cases, the state has achieved better outcomes than other states of India, but with comparable budgets. 

In this talk, Vivek will argue that the effectiveness of Tamil Nadu's administration can be linked to underlying processes akin to 'human centred design' that has been popularized by the Design school at Stanford, among others. This form of design thinking is slowly but surely making its way to other parts of India leading to a small revolution in governance in India today.

The talk will be based on his recently published book, Delivering Public Services Effectively: Tamil Nadu & Beyond.

 

SPEAKER BIO

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Vivek Srinivasan joined the CDDRL Liberation Technology Program as the program manager in February 2011 after completing his Ph.D. in social sciences from the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Prior to this, he worked with campaigns on various socio-economic rights in India, including the right to food, education and the right to information. Based on these experiences Srinivasan has written (and co-authored) extensively on issues surrounding the right to food, including Notes from the right to food campaign: people's movement for the right to food (2003), Rights based approach and human development: An introduction (2008), Gender and the right to food: A critical re-examination (2006), Food Policy and Social Movements: Reflections on the Right to Food Campaign in India (2007).  

In working with these campaigns, he realized the widespread disparities in the provision of basic public services in India. This led him to examine how Tamil Nadu, a southern Indian state, developed extensive commitment to providing such services to all its residents in his doctoral dissertation.  Oxford University Press published Srinivasan’s book based on the dissertation entitled, "Delivering services effectively: Tamil Nadu and Beyond" in 2014.

As a full-time activist, he also experimented with various IT platforms to make the campaigns effective. This interest brought him to the Liberation Technology Program at Stanford where Srinivasan is currently leading a research project entitled "Combating corruption with mobile phones".

Vivek Srinivasan

Encina Hall
Office C149

(650) 561-6039
0
picture-4171-1416339295.jpg PhD

I joined the Liberation Technology Program as the Manager in February 2011 after completing my Ph.D. in Social Sciences from the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. Prior to this, I worked with campaigns on various socio-economic rights in India, including the right to food, education and the right to information. Based on these experiences I have written (and co-authored) extensively on issues surrounding the right to food, including Notes from the right to food campaign: people's movement for the right to food (2003), Rights based approach and human development: An introduction (2008), Gender and the right to food: A critical re-examination (2006), Food Policy and Social Movements: Reflections on the Right to Food Campaign in India (2007).  

In working with these campaigns, I realised the widespread disparities in the provision of basic public services in India. This led me examine how Tamil Nadu, a southern Indian state, developed extensive commitment to providing such services to all its residents in my doctoral dissertation.  Oxford University Press published my book based on the dissertation entitled, "Delivering services effectively: Tamil Nadu and Beyond" in 2014.

As a full-time activist, I also experimented with various IT platforms to make the campaigns effective. This interest brought me to the Liberation Technology Program at Stanford. I am currently leading a research project entitled "Combating corruption with mobile phones".

Visiting Scholar
Former Academic Research & Program Manager, Liberation Technology
Academic Research & Program Manager, Program on Liberation Technology Academic Research & Program Manager, Program on Liberation Technology
Seminars

A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective

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Abstract:

a different democracy american government in a 31 country perspective

American democracy differs greatly from other democracies around the world.  But is the American way more or less efficacious than comparable democracies in Asia, Latin America, or Europe?  What if the United States had a prime minister instead of (or in additional to) a president, or if it had three or more parties in Congress instead of two?  Would there be more partisan animosity and legislative gridlock or less?  These are the kinds of questions that thinking about U.S. government in comparative perspective helps us to analyze.

 

Speaker Bios:

Arend Lijphart 

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Arend Lijphart is Research Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego.  His research has focused on the prospects of democracy in ethnically divided societies like Belgium, Lebanon, South Africa, and India, and on different forms of democracy—especially the contrast between majoritarian and consensus democracy and between presidential and parliamentary systems—and their strengths and weaknesses.  He is the author or editor of more than twenty books; the most recent are Patterns of Democracy (1999, 2nd ed, 2012),  Thinking About Democracy (2008), and A Different Democracy (co-authored with Steven L. Taylor, Matthew S. Shugart, and Bernard Grofman, 2014). 

Lijphart received his Ph.D. from Yale University in 1963, and was awarded honorary doctorates by the University of Leiden in 2001, Queen’s University Belfast in 2004, and the University of Ghent in 2009.  He served as president of the American Political Science Association in 1995-96, and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the British Academy, and the Netherlands Academy of Sciences.

 

Matthew Shugart

shugart

Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis

 

 

 

 

 

This event is co-sponsored with CDDRL's Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective. 

 

Arend Lijphart Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of California, San Diego Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of California, San Diego
Matthew Shugart Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis
Seminars
American Democracy Events

Current Status of the Health System in Mongolia

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The Asian Liver Center and the Asia Health Policy Program joint event.

Current Status of the Health System in Mongolia
Download pdf

Asian Liver Center

780 Welch Road, CJ 130

Palo Alto, CA

Enkhbold Sereenen Deputy Director, National Center for Communicable Disease, Ministry of Health, Mongolia
Seminars

Primary Healthcare and the Private Sector in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Asia in Comparative Perspective

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Anne Mills will speak about primary healthcare and the private sector in low- and middle-income Countries, drawing from her wide-ranging expertise and careful empirical evaluation of health policies in a range of countries in Asia, Africa, and other parts of the developing world. Linking themes of good health at low cost and equitable paths toward universal coverage, Professor Mills will argue how policymakers might best strengthen healthcare systems in the Asia-Pacific region, including the opportunities for health and efficiency improvements and the opportunity costs of continuing hospital-centric delivery systems. Professor Mill embodies a distinctive ability to combine broad thinking on the role of primary care with specific examples of how to harness the private sector toward public health objectives, an inter-linked theme the Asia Health Policy Program’s colloquium series and policy research. 

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Dame Anne Mills DCMG, CBE, FRS  Vice Director and Professor of Health Economics and Policy at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. In 2014 she became a Fellow of the Royal Society and was made a Dame in the 2015 New Year's Honors. Her main research interests are: (1) issues concerned with the financing and organization of health care in low and middle income countries, including the impact on demand, utilization, equity and efficiency, and the private health sector; (2) the economics of tropical disease control; and (3) how to encourage the use of economic thinking and analysis in decision making. Professor Mills has been active in making economic evaluation techniques accessible to a non-specialist audience, as well as initiatives to build capacity in health economics. She chaired the Board of the Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, based in WHO; was a member of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health; and co-chaired Working Group 1 of the High Level Taskforce on Innovative International Financing for Health Systems.  Dr. Mills was President of the International Health Economics Association for 2012-13, and is currently a Board member of Health Systems Global.

Download pdf

Philippines Conference Room

Encina Hall, 3rd Floor Central

616 Serra Street,

Stanford, CA 94305

Anne Mills Vice Director and Professor of Health Economics and Policy London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Seminars
Innovations in Primary Care

The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico

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Abstract:

In 2006 the Mexican government launched an aggressive campaign to weaken drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs). The security policies differed significantly from those of previous administrations in the use of a leadership strategy (the targeting for arrest of the highest levels or core leadership of criminal networks). While these strategies can play an important role in disrupting the targeted criminal organization, they can also have unintended consequences, increasing inter-cartel and intra-cartel fighting and fragmenting criminal organizations. What impact do captures of senior drug cartel members have on the dynamics of drug-related violence? Does it matter if governments target drug kingpins vs. lower ranked lieutenants? We analyze whether the captures or killings of kingpins and lieutenants have increased drug-related violence and whether the violence spills over spatially. To estimate effects that are credibly causal, we use different empirical strategies that combine difference-in-differences and synthetic control group methods. We find evidence that captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence, but also on homicides that affect the general population. Captures or killings of lieutenants, for their part, only seem to exacerbate violence in “strategic places” or municipalities located in the transportation network. While most of the effects on DTO-related violence are found in the first six months after a leader’s removal, effects on homicides affecting the rest of the population are more enduring, suggesting different mechanisms through which leadership neutralizations breed violence.

 

Speaker Bio:

gustavo robles
Gustavo Robles is PhD candidate in political science at Stanford University with specialization in political methodology and comparative politics. His research interests include the economics of crime and violence in Latin America, political economy of development, and legislative studies. He is currently working on his PhD dissertation on the dynamics and consequences of drug-related violence in Mexico. He is a researcher for the Program on Poverty and Governance at CDDRL. Before attending Stanford, Robles worked at Protego Asesores as a financial advisor for states and municipalities in Mexico. He also worked as an economic analyst for the Mexican Minister of Finance and for the Cente r of Analysis and Economic Research at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM). He holds a M.A. in economics from Stanford University and a B.A. in economics and political science from ITAM. He won the Ex ITAM Research Prize for the best undergraduate thesis in Political Science in 2009 and the Fulbright-García Robles Scholarship in 2008 (declined).

Gustavo Robles Pre-doctoral Fellow, CDDRL
Seminars
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