Is democracy heading toward a depression? CDDRL Director Larry Diamond answers in a recent Foreign Policy piece, assessing the challenges of overcoming a global, decade-long democratic recession. With much of the world losing faith in the model of liberal democracy, Diamond believes the key to setting democracy back on track involves heavy reform in America, serious crackdowns on corruption, and a reassessment of how the West approaches its support for democratic development abroad.
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'Protect your Republic Protest' in Anıtkabir, Ankara, Turkey. 14 April 2007.
"A Whisper to a Roar," is a documentary film that tells the heroic stories of democracy activists in five countries - Egypt, Malaysia, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe - who risk everything to bring freedom to their people. This teacher’s guide provides materials that supplement the information and issues explored in the film: setting-the-stage activities, note-taking handouts, answer keys, and numerous discussion questions and extension activities.
The Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University is pleased to announce the 2014 class of undergraduate senior honors students.
Honors students will spend four quarters participating in research seminars to refine their proposed thesis topic, while working in consultation with a CDDRL faculty advisor to supervise their project. In September, the group will travel to Washington, D.C. for honors college where they will visit leading government and development organizations to witness policymaking in practice and consult with key decision-makers.
Please join CDDRL in congratulating the 2014 Senior Honors students and welcoming them to the Center.
Below are profiles of the nine honors students highlighting their academic interests, why they applied to CDDRL, and some fun facts.
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Aline Bass
Major: History, minor in East Asian Studies
Hometown: Dallas, TX
Thesis Title: How do the concepts of law and morality in China reflect and impact the development of private property rights, specifically urban land-use rights, in the post-Mao era?
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? In the Western tradition, clarification of property rights is an essential catalyst for economic development and foundation for the rule of law. China’s unparalleled economic growth and rapid urbanization since the beginning of the reform era offers a counterpoint experience, which I hope to examine through the lens of land use rights, since, historically and currently, land ownership has played a crucial role in determining social security and wealth in Chinese society. My thesis will combine historical and qualitative analysis and examination of the current real property situation in China’s urban areas, which should contribute perspective to the broader study of China’s development as well as urban property rights in emerging countries.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? An opportunity to work under the guidance of the CDDRL faculty and alongside fellow honors students in an interdisciplinary program provides an ideal and challenging intellectual environment. In addition, CDDRL’s focus on development and its inextricable ties to good governance offers a unique insight into various development situations, their associated successes, shortcomings, and consequences for social improvement.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope to attend law school after Stanford, work and live abroad, and pursue a career related to China.
What are your summer research plans: I will be working in a law firm in Shanghai this summer and conducting research in both Shanghai and Beijing.
Fun fact about yourself: I can consume more ice cream than a Ben and Jerry’s factory tour group.
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Meaghan Conway
Major:Science, Technology & Society
Hometown: New York City, NY
Thesis Title: Blended ROI? Analyzing the economic and social returns of private equity investment in emerging markets
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? For my honors thesis I plan to research private equity investments in sub-Saharan Africa. I hope to investigate whether private equity investments (and partnerships with international financial institutions such as the IFC and World Bank) generate robust returns for the investors as well as catalyze development in their communities. I hope that my thesis, while adding to the literature in the field, will more importantly serve as support for further investment in developing economies and promote the power of impact investing.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? The people! I am thrilled to have the opportunity to be mentored by some of Stanford’s most renowned faculty and I am excited to learn from my fellow undergraduates in the CDDRL.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: For my career, I would love to be able to combine my interest in finance and my interest in development. I hope to travel, attend business school, and be a socially responsible investor.
What are your summer research plans: First I will be interning in investment banking in New York and then I hope to head to South Africa to conduct some field research for my thesis!
Fun fact about yourself: I spent this past summer working in Dubai and had the opportunity to ride a camel and play with penguins!
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Mahilini Kailaiyangirichelvam
Major: International Relations, minor in Economics
Hometown: Jaffna, Sri Lanka
Thesis Title: The impact of civil war on food production in Sri Lanka
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? War can pose serious threats to food security within a country. These threats stem from disruption of the economy and institutions as well as from policy changes. It is through understanding the impacts of these factors on food security that food insecurity and hunger can be alleviated or avoided. The understanding gained from this work can guide development work.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? My research on the impact of war cannot be understood using concepts drawn only from economics or politics. CDDRL views issues using a broader, integrated lens of economics, politics, and law, and it provides a wonderful forum that brings senior scholars and student researchers pursuing a wide variety of topics together for discussions. This interdisciplinary environment offers the perfect academic home for me.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope to pursue doctoral studies either in international economics or development economics. I would like to become a professor and pursue research and development work in Asia.
What are your summer research plans: I will be collecting and analyzing food production data and interviewing policy experts and farmers in Sri Lanka so that I can better understand the changes in food economy that results from the civil war in Sri Lanka.
Fun fact about yourself: I grew up learning sword fighting in the ancient tradition of Tamil kingdom. I also enjoy listening to carnatic music, and playing Veena.
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Haiy Le
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Charlotte, NC
Thesis Title: How is the Media Used to Advocate for Land Rights in Vietnam?
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Civil society actors are using the media network in Vietnam - from the state-owned press to the increasingly vocal blogosphere - to advocate for policy change on land rights. My research will contribute to the literature on how information technology is affecting the media and how it can be directed towards positive social impact.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? I want my undergraduate education to culminate in a project in which I take ownership of my learning and contribute to scholarly knowledge on a topic that is meaningful to me. I am not sure if grad school lies in the future, and the honors program is a wonderful opportunity to have the resources of the university and the mentorship of the CDDRL community to ask these questions.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope that the process of completing a thesis will connect me with the resources to pursue my interest in democratic development and liberation technology.
What are your summer research plans: I will be in Vietnam collecting data for my research. I also have plans to travel to Cambodia, Thailand, and Singapore!
Fun fact about yourself: I coincidentally saw Professor Larry Diamond in Hue, Vietnam when I was traveling there. I believe it was fate, and I knew I had to join the CDDRL community and return to Vietnam to work with him on my thesis!
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Devanshi Patel
Major: International Relations, minor in Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity
Hometown: San Jose, CA
Thesis Title: How the Chain of Command Structure of the U.S. Military Affects the Reporting and Prosecution of Internal Sexual Assault Cases
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Though the Department of Defense observes a “zero tolerance policy,” in the year 2011 alone 3,191 military sexual assaults were reported. Because most assaults are not reported, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta estimates that the number is closer to 19,000, translating into a 16.7% reporting rate. Some legislation has suggested developing joint jurisdiction between the Department of Defense and the Department of Justice to prosecute sexual assault cases. Through my thesis, I hope to explore the "rule of law" aspect of the zero tolerance policy, and assess the effects of internal prosecution.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? So far, I have enjoyed deepening my understanding of research methods through the CDDRL weekly seminar. I am drawn to the program because of its interdisciplinary nature that will allow me to blend both quantitative and qualitative approaches to research.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope to study human rights law and spend considerable time studying and working abroad.
What are your summer research plans: I will be interviewing members of the military in different regions of the United States, including California and Washington, DC.
Fun fact about yourself: I enjoy cooking vegetarian food and experimenting with new recipes!
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Janani Ramachandran
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Fremont, CA and Bangalore, India
Thesis Title: Anti-Americanism in Pakistan
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? I believe that the general American narrative on anti-American perceptions lacks nuance, and I hope to present a more complex picture with a framework of the various anti-Americanisms, particularly in Pakistan, a critical geo-political partner to the U.S. I hope such a study can help inform U.S. foreign policy for future relationships with Pakistan and other strategic conflict-ridden states in the non-Western world, to minimize levels of distrust and promote mutual respect and sustainable relations.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? I have always been a fan of the work of CDDRL and its fellows throughout my time at Stanford. As a research assistant for international human rights expert Helen Stacy, I understood the value of close interactions and guidance from scholars at CDDRL. The honors program provided the perfect opportunity to pursue my research passion, along with the guidance of some of the world's most respected scholars in the field.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: To work in the foreign policy and international human rights space in Washington D.C. and abroad
What are your summer research plans:I will conduct virtual interviews with individuals in Pakistan, and prepare for a research trip to Islamabad in December. I will also be interning at the Ashoka Foundation in Caracas, Venezuela on social entrepreneurship projects, and the Ford Foundation in New Delhi, India, on governance projects.
Fun fact about yourself: I've visited 23 countries, speak four languages, and grew up in India and the US. I was voted "most likely to be a future leader" in fourth grade.
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Danna Seligman
Major: Political Science
Hometown: Newbury Park, CA
Thesis Title: The Origins of Political Gridlock- Institutional and Societal Mechanisms that Inhibit Government Productivity in the United States
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Gridlock has become a paralyzing constraint to our current American political institutions, but little has been done in an attempt to overcome such a significant strain to our democratic system. Legislative productivity and representation in government have been compromised by our government's inability to make, pass and execute laws. In many ways, political gridlock blocks the government from affecting the will of the people and effectively addressing its constituents needs.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? The interdisciplinary nature of the program was truly key for the thesis I wanted to write. I appreciate the freedom to use different methods to approach relevant questions about society and government, and the CDDRL faculty is the best resource any Stanford student could ask for.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I plan to attend law school after Stanford, but also hope to do some campaign work during the 2014 midterm elections. I hope to pursue a career in national politics and eventually be in a position to implement the ideas and theories my thesis and CDDRL endorses for better democracy and governance.
What are your summer research plans: I will be in Washington D.C. this summer working for Congressman Xavier Becerra, and hope to use my time in D.C. to conduct interviews with prominent political thinkers and actors.
Fun fact about yourself: I was a Stanford Dollie 2011-2012.
Belina Tang
Belinda Tang
Major: Economics & Public Policy
Hometown: San Jose, CA
Thesis Title: The Implications of Women Policymakers in a Natural Experiment in Lesotho
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? A lot of previousresearch has shown that, when it comes to making decisions on how to allocate resources, women, at both the household and government-level, make different decisions than males do, particularly for health and education-related public goods. If that's also a result of giving women power in local government in an African country, then increasing the institutional power of women could represent a strong mechanism through which we can improve development indicators in the world's poorest region.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? The inspiring cohort of students I will be able to work with and learn from (and the abundance of free lunches!).
Future aspiration post-Stanford: To do research with implications for the lives of individuals in poverty.
What are your summer research plans: I will be doing fieldwork in Lesotho in July and August.
Fun fact about yourself: My name in Chinese tells a story of how many small and seemingly insignificant streams can flow together to form a large and powerful one - I like to think this is a metaphor for my life!
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Aditya Todi
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Kathmandu, Nepal
Thesis Title: The role and importance of political parties in consolidating democracy with a focus on Nepal and potentially South Africa and Ghana
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Political parties are an integral part of democracies anywhere, but even so in countries undergoing democratic transition. Nepal has already had two failed "experimentations" with democracy in the past fifty years. The historic elections of 2008 have paved the way for Nepal to move forward and consolidate democracy. Going forward, it will be crucial for political parties to play their part in strengthening democracy in Nepal and to represent the people of the country to the best of their abilities.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? Other than the free lunches, it would have to be the faculty and the interdisciplinary aspect of the program. The faculty as well as inter-student engagement makes the program very unique and appealing.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Pursue further studies in business and public policy as well as have a chance to travel extensively within Nepal.
What are your summer research plans: I will be doing some preliminary research in Nepal during the two weeks I am there this summer. I also hope to gather data and learn about the political parties in Ghana during my time as a Stanford in Government (SIG) Fellow at the Center for Democratic Development.
Fun fact about yourself: I enjoy playing and watching cricket and would be down to watch a Hindi film any time of day.
Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law invites you to a screening of A Whisper to a Roar, a film chronicling the stories of five democracy activists in Egypt, Malaysia, Ukraine, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. The screening will be followed by a discussion with Venezuelan student leader Roberto Patiño, one of the activists featured in the film. Moderated by Larry Diamond.
CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
(650) 724-6448
(650) 723-1928
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ldiamond@stanford.edu
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
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MA, PhD
Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.
Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad. A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests(2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy(2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).
During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.
Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab World; Will China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.
State-owned oil and natural gas companies, such as Saudi Aramco, Petróleos de Venezuela and China National Petroleum Corp., own 73 percent of the world's oil reserves and 68 percent of its natural gas. They bankroll governments across the globe. Although national oil companies superficially resemble private-sector companies, they often behave in very different ways.
Oil and Governance: State-Owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply (Cambridge University Press, 2012), a new book commissioned by Stanford University's Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, explains the variation in performance and strategy for such state-owned enterprises. The book, which Mark Thurber co-edited and contributed to, also provides fresh insights into the future of the oil industry and the politics of the oil-rich countries where national oil companies dominate.
Though national oil companies have often been the subject of case studies, for the first time multiple case studies followed a common research design, which aided the relative ranking of performance and the evaluation of hypotheses about such companies' performance. Interestingly, some of the worst performing of these operations belong to countries quite unfriendly to the United States. Mark will also discuss the industrial structure of the oil industry, and the politics and administration of national oil companies. One result of the dominance of this structure for oil markets is that high prices often lead to lower supplies and low prices lead to increased production -- the opposite response of private companies.
This is apart of the Weekly Energy Seminar series managed by the Precourt Institute for Energy and the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford.
NVIDIA Auditorium, Jen-Hsun Huang Engineering Center
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
616 Jane Stanford Way
Encina Hall East, Rm E412
Stanford, CA 94305
(650) 724-9709
(650) 724-1717
0
mthurber@stanford.edu
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PhD
Mark C. Thurber is Associate Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) at Stanford University, where he studies and teaches about energy and environmental markets and policy. Dr. Thurber has written and edited books and articles on topics including global fossil fuel markets, climate policy, integration of renewable energy into electricity markets, and provision of energy services to low-income populations.
Dr. Thurber co-edited and contributed to Oil and Governance: State-owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply (Cambridge University Press, 2012) and The Global Coal Market: Supplying the Major Fuel for Emerging Economies (Cambridge University Press, 2015). He is the author of Coal (Polity Press, 2019) about why coal has thus far remained the preeminent fuel for electricity generation around the world despite its negative impacts on local air quality and the global climate.
Dr. Thurber teaches a course on energy markets and policy at Stanford, in which he runs a game-based simulation of electricity, carbon, and renewable energy markets. With Dr. Frank Wolak, he also conducts game-based workshops for policymakers and regulators. These workshops explore timely policy topics including how to ensure resource adequacy in a world with very high shares of renewable energy generation.
Dr. Thurber has previous experience working in high-tech industry. From 2003-2005, he was an engineering manager at a plant in Guadalajara, México that manufactured hard disk drive heads. He holds a Ph.D. from Stanford University and a B.S.E. from Princeton University.
National oil companies (NOCs) produce most of the world’s oil and natural gas and bankroll governments across the globe. Although NOCs superficially resemble private-sector companies, they often behave in very different ways. To understand these pivotal state-owned enterprises and the long shadow they cast on world energy markets, the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) at Stanford University commissioned Oil and Governance: State-owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply. The 1000-page volume, edited by David Victor, David Hults, and Mark Thurber, explains the variation in the performance and strategy of NOCs, and provides fresh insights into the future of the oil industry as well as the politics of the oil-rich countries where NOCs dominate. It comprises fifteen case studies, each following a common research design, of NOCs based in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Europe. The book also includes cross-cutting pieces on the industrial structure of the oil industry and the politics and administration of NOCs.
NOCs are distinguished from private companies by their need to respond to state goals beyond profit maximization. Governments seeking to retain their hold on power use NOCs to deliver benefits to influential elites (“private goods”) or to the broader population (“social goods”). Oil and Governance finds a strong correlation between such non-hydrocarbon burdens on the NOC—which include providing employment, subsidizing fuel, or handing out plum jobs to the politically connected—and deficiencies in oil and gas performance. The highest-performing NOCs, like Norway’s Statoil and Brazil’s Petrobras, face relatively circumscribed non-oil demands from their governments.
How governments administer their oil sectors also proves to be a crucial determinant of NOC performance. Democracies (e.g., Norway, Brazil) and autocracies (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Angola) alike are capable of grooming successful NOCs. What matters most for outcomes is not regime type per se but rather that governance systems provide unified signals to the NOC. (By contrast, regime type is observed to be an important driver of whether governments nationalize their oil sectors in the first place, or privatize existing NOCs.) Fragmented governance, in which multiple government actors assert their interests but no one assumes strategic responsibility, appears uniformly fatal to NOC performance. Nascent democracies like Mexico’s can be particularly vulnerable to oil sector dysfunction stemming from fragmentation. Governance systems must also be matched to a country’s institutional and political realities. Nigeria has arguably set back its progress in oil through attempts to slavishly imitate Norway’s forms of oil organization in the absence of Norway’s mature political and civil service institutions.
The close ties between the NOC and its government can have a detrimental effect on the ability of the NOC to manage the risks that are so characteristic of the oil and gas industry. Whereas private companies are forced to hone their geological knowledge and skills through global competition for capital and hydrocarbon licenses, NOCs for the most part are comfortably sheltered from competitive threats at home. They therefore fail to develop the global reach that helps private players (the international oil companies, or IOCs) manage risk by means of a diversified global portfolio and the ability to link resources to customers around the world. (Some NOCs have begun to internationalize in recent years, but it is striking that none of the NOCs studied in Oil and Governance went down this path until forced to by domestic resource scarcity, or at least of the perception of future scarcity.) The soft budget constraint faced by the NOC also discourages the cost efficiencies that help mitigate risk.
This gulf in risk management capabilities between IOCs and most NOCs suggests that the resource dominance of NOCs does not pose an existential threat to private oil companies. Private players will continue to play a key role in the frontiers of oil and gas development—frontiers like shale gas, oil sands, and the remote Arctic. NOCs will continue to control low-cost oil around the world, while a select few of the most focused and unencumbered among them start to build up their own risk management skills through partnerships with IOCs.
NOC control over resources has important implications for the world oil price. The NOCs studied in the book produce their reserves at half the rate of the major IOCs—whether due to lower performance or a deliberate attempt to preserve resources for the future. Moreover, governments tend to rely most heavily on the risk management skills of IOCs when prices are low and then swing back towards NOCs in high price periods when they can afford to focus on delivering benefits to favored constituencies. The result of this dynamic, which is observed in the case studies of Oil and Governance, can be “backward bending supply curves” that exaggerate price volatility in the world oil market.
This effect of NOCs on global oil supply and price appears to be much more important than any geopolitical fallout from NOC primacy around the world. Oil and Governance finds very little evidence that NOCs act as effective foreign policy weapons on behalf of their host states. Even where politicians may desire to employ NOCs in this way, the incentives of the NOC itself are usually strongly opposed to such an exercise of power. As one example, Europe’s Gazprom depends overwhelmingly on revenues from gas exports to Europe because gas is so heavily subsidized in Russia. When NOCs do venture abroad, as in the case of China’s CNPC, they are often motivated to do so precisely by the desire to achieve more autonomy from their political masters at home.
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Journal Articles
June 2011
Exporting the 'Norwegian Model': The effect of administrative design on oil sector performance
Michael Albertus, post-doctoral fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law will present a paper that details the first analysis of a distributive program – a Venezuelan land reform initiative known as Misión Zamora – at the individual level using data on revealed voter preferences and the receipt of particularistic benefits. Using data from a list of millions of voters that signed petitions to recall President Chávez, Albertus will match information on all recent land grant applicants to petition signers to measure the effect of political preferences on the likelihood of applying for land, receiving land, and being effectively rejected. He will present evidence for both strategic core voter targeting and punishment of opposition voters, although both of these effects are modified by local political actors. The lack of a complete property registry and ambiguity in key provisions of the Land Law have enabled considerable administrative discretion in the application of the program.
Michael Albertus is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and the author of five books. His newest book, Land Power: Who Has It, Who Doesn't, and How That Determines the Fate of Societies, was published by Basic Books in January 2025. It tells the story of how land came to be power within human societies, how it shapes power, and how its allocation determines the major social ills that societies grapple with.
Albertus studied math, electrical engineering, and political science at the University of Michigan and earned degrees in all three in 2005. He then did a PhD in political science at Stanford University, completing in 2011. After a postdoctoral fellowship at Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Albertus joined the University of Chicago faculty in 2012 and has since been on sabbatical twice back at Stanford, including as a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavior Sciences. In addition to his books, Albertus is also the author of over 30 peer-reviewed journal articles, including at flagship journals like the American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, and World Politics. He has taught courses to undergraduate, Masters, and PhD students on topics including inequality and redistribution, democracy and dictatorship, comparative politics, and political and economic development and policy in Latin America and the Iberian Peninsula.
The defining features of Albertus' work are his engagement with big questions and puzzles and the ability to join big data and cutting-edge research methods with original, deep on-the-ground fieldwork everywhere from government offices to archives and farm fields. He has conducted fieldwork throughout the Americas, southern Europe, South Africa, and elsewhere. His books and articles have won numerous awards and shifted conventional understandings of democracy, authoritarianism, and the consequences of how humans occupy and relate to the land.
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Michael Albertus
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On October 3-4, 2011, the Stanford University Program on Poverty and Governance at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law and the Center for International Security and Cooperation, in conjunction with the Center for Latin American Studies, the Stanford Law School, and the Bill Lane Center for the American West, hosted a conference to discuss the problem of violence, organized criminal activity, and governance. In particular, the conference focused on growing concerns about Mexican security. Participants examined the issue from a comparative perspective, drawing lessons from the experience of Afghanistan, Colombia, and other countries that have grappled with similar challenges.
Among other topics, the conference explored the root causes of the dramatic upswing in violence in Mexico in recent years, compared those problems to chronic violence and illicit activity in other countries, and considered potential solutions that could reduce the risk of violence in the future. The conference was held at Stanford University in the Bechtel Conference Center in Encina Hall. Participants included scholars and doctoral candidates from the United States, Mexico, Colombia, and Germany, representatives from the U.S. Departments of Justice and Treasury, and the Mexican Embassy.
Context of the Problem
Crime and violence pose a serious challenge to Mexico. According to one of the participants, between January 2007 and December 2010, official statistics confirm that approximately 40,000 homicides have occurred. The problem appears to be growing worse, with 2011 on pace to become the most violent year on record.
The rising violence in Mexico has resulted in a sharply heightened sense of fear among citizens, who now feel the presence of cartels in their every day lives. The use of extortion and kidnapping by cartels combined with a lack of trust in security forces terrorizes the population and makes them feel like they have no where to turn. Despite this fact, crime rates in Mexico remain lower than in other parts of Latin America. Venezuela, for example, has among the highest homicide rates in the world. Yet the pervasive infiltration of cartels into public life gives Mexicans a heightened sense of the severity of violent crime in their own country.
There are no simple answers explaining these developments. Some participants trace the violence back to the 1980s when the United States began working closely with the Colombian government to stem the flow of cocaine across the Caribbean, and to disrupt powerful Colombian criminal organizations. The scholars suggested that the crackdown on those illegal trafficking routes caused the drug trade to divert through Mexico on the way to markets in the United States. These trade routes strengthened Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), thereby altering the landscape and scale of illicit activity in the country.
Some participants also noted the importance of attributing other factors to explain the growing violence in Mexico, citing four domestic factors. First, the efforts made by President Felipe Calderón of Mexico to crack down on drug-related violence after his inauguration in 2006; second, the fragmentation of Mexican cartels due to the capture or assassination of "kingpins" in the organizations; third, a diversification in the economic incentives of the DTOs; and fourth, the weak status of rule of law in Mexico.
These four explanations are by no means independent of each other, and the endogenous nature of these factors is exactly why it is so difficult to stop the increasing violence in Mexico. Indeed, examining these four factors a bit further makes it clear that they are closely linked. Following his inauguration, President Calderón made violence and drug trafficking top priorities. His strategy was to target and remove the cartel leadership, assuming that breaking the cartels up would make them easier to subdue. The effort had the opposite effect. Capturing and killing cartel kingpins created a power vacuum and splintered the cartels into many smaller, less organized, and more militant gangs. The smaller and less centralized gangs began fighting each other for control of routes and territory. Without centralized control, the groups also became less efficient as cocaine traffickers - a system that had previously thrived from economies of scale. As a result, they began diversifying their revenue streams. Extortion, human trafficking, money laundering, arms trading, and petty crime all became more economical relative to small-scale drug trafficking and dealing, which led the cartels to diversify further still. Though participants heavily debated the directionality of the link between this diversification and gang fractionalization, consensus emerged that dividing up the cartels led to increased violence in Mexico.
The persistent problems of the Mexican legal system have also exerted a huge impact on the ability of the Mexican government to subdue the violence. High rates of corruption within local police forces, due in part to low compensation, means that the police are unreliable as a means to enforce order in municipalities. This has prompted the government to deploy armed forces to try to restore order in some areas. Furthermore, the judicial system in Mexico is weak, with poor judges, a shortage of lawyers, and a backlog that makes due process nothing more than an idealized notion.
Participants also presented evidence that additional factors could have exacerbated the violence. Among them: the global recession, which has reduced economic opportunities, and democratization in the 1990s. But in general, participants concluded that the evidence that either of these factors affected the overall crime situation in Mexico was weak relative to the other factors discussed.
The overall consensus was that any policy initiative made to control violence in Mexico invariably must address the weak rule of law institutions, the economic incentives of the cartels, and the exploding intra- and inter-cartel violence. Successful strategies, moreover, must approach these topics differently than how they have been addressed thus far.
Lessons and Proposals
What can be done to rein in the rising violence? Participants examined a number of successful anti-gang and anti-drug policies in other countries for potential answers. For instance, the Unidades de Polícia Pacificadora (Pacifying Police Units or UPP) program in Rio de Janeiro, which started in 2008, consists of proximity policing, gaining the trust of and working with favela populations, and directly engaging with and helping favela children and youth. The program's main goal is to keep organized crime out of favelas, which have been their hideout for decades. The program helped restore law and order, participants said, because of the high effectiveness of proximity policing in high-risk communities, which combined policing with social and public services to increase legitimacy of the program. This dual security approach-using specialized forces during conflict and then proximity policing to maintain daily safety and security in the slums-has been highly successful at maintaining order and controlling police corruption in Rio.
In Colombia, because the violence of a few decades ago seemed to be more a result of a weak state than the presence of drugs, the situation improved when the state's capacity increased. Nevertheless, part of the solution found in the city of Medellín, where the local cartel proved too strong to destroy, was to allow one cartel to have a monopoly. Yet while this trade-off worked in the short-term, once the Medellín Cartel kingpin was captured and extradited with the help of U.S. military aid, violence started to increase again.
U.S. military aid to Colombia also had a drawback as some of the funding was leaked to paramilitary activities. Conference participants said one lesson from this experience is that it is important to invest more in drug interdiction than in eradication, because eradication programs increase the price of drugs, thereby improving trafficking incentives. The most important implication of this is that squeezing the traffickers will only cause them to re-route, not stop. When squeezed out of Colombia and the Caribbean, they re-routed through Mexico. If this occurs in Mexico, traffickers will most likely move into Central America. The issue of drug trafficking cannot be resolved if policymakers ignore Central American republics.
Several other proposals received attention during the conference. Among them was the suggestion that Mexican policy emulate aspects of the Colombian model by concentrating all efforts toward destroying the single-most violent cartel until it is entirely eliminated, and then progressing on to the next largest and so forth. Theoretically, doing so would systematically destroy the cartels while minimizing their fragmentation.
Participants also suggested that authorities focus on targeting extortion, kidnapping, and other non-drug related economically incentivized crimes committed by the gangs, which could help limit their ability to fragment and diversify. This approach could benefit from careful analysis of efforts to implement community policing strategies that some participants believe to have yielded results in the United States and Brazil. A third proposal with serious implications is to reform the judicial and penal system in Mexico to ensure that incarcerated "narcos" cannot continue operating from within Mexican prisons.
Finally, much discussion was given to the best way to address the demand-side of drug trafficking. While legalizing drugs in the United States was seen as highly unlikely option with very unclear potential results, a participant proposed that policymakers encourage the expansion of rigorous drug treatment programs, such as Hawaii's highly successful Opportunity Probation with Enforcement program. It requires convicted drug offenders on probation to undergo randomized drug tests one to seven times a week, with automatic incarceration for anyone who tests positive or is found to be in violation of their parole.
Conclusion
Daunting problems remain in understanding crime and governance in Latin America. But this conference, among other things, helped highlight areas where further research on drug trafficking, organized crime, violence, and issues of citizen security are still needed. There were also several highly actionable proposals put forth based on programs that have been implemented in other countries in the Western Hemisphere. These initiatives hold promise for helping Mexico deal with its own situation. This conference should serve as a launch pad to encourage and develop research and communication in this area with policy implications for the near future.
Dept. of Political Science
Encina Hall, Room 436
Stanford University,
Stanford, CA
(650) 724-5949
0
magaloni@stanford.edu
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations
Professor of Political Science
beatriz_magaloni_2024.jpg
MA, PhD
Beatriz Magaloni Magaloni is the Graham Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science. Magaloni is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, where she holds affiliations with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). She is also a Stanford’s King Center for Global Development faculty affiliate. Magaloni has taught at Stanford University for over two decades.
She leads the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (Povgov). Founded by Magaloni in 2010, Povgov is one of Stanford University’s leading impact-driven knowledge production laboratories in the social sciences. Under her leadership, Povgov has innovated and advanced a host of cutting-edge research agendas to reduce violence and poverty and promote peace, security, and human rights.
Magaloni’s work has contributed to the study of authoritarian politics, poverty alleviation, indigenous governance, and, more recently, violence, crime, security institutions, and human rights. Her first book, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico (Cambridge University Press, 2006) is widely recognized as a seminal study in the field of comparative politics. It received the 2007 Leon Epstein Award for the Best Book published in the previous two years in the area of political parties and organizations, as well as the Best Book Award from the American Political Science Association’s Comparative Democratization Section. Her second book The Politics of Poverty Relief: Strategies of Vote Buying and Social Policies in Mexico (with Alberto Diaz-Cayeros and Federico Estevez) (Cambridge University Press, 2016) explores how politics shapes poverty alleviation.
Magaloni’s work was published in leading journals, including the American Political Science Review,American Journal of Political Science, Criminology & Public Policy, World Development, Comparative Political Studies, Annual Review of Political Science, Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, Latin American Research Review, and others.
Magaloni received wide international acclaim for identifying innovative solutions for salient societal problems through impact-driven research. In 2023, she was named winner of the world-renowned Stockholm Prize in Criminology, considered an equivalent of the Nobel Prize in the field of criminology. The award recognized her extensive research on crime, policing, and human rights in Mexico and Brazil. Magaloni’s research production in this area was also recognized by the American Political Science Association, which named her recipient of the 2021 Heinz I. Eulau Award for the best article published in the American Political Science Review, the leading journal in the discipline.
She received her Ph.D. in political science from Duke University and holds a law degree from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México.
Twenty-seven rising leaders from emerging democracies around the world have been named to the 2011 class of Draper Hills Summer Fellows on Democracy and Development at CDDRL.
Twenty-seven rising leaders from emerging democracies around the world have been named to the 2011 class of Draper Hills Summer Fellows on Democracy and Development at CDDRL.
This group represents the seventh class of Draper Hills Summer Fellows and is composed of democracy activists, development practitioners, academics, policymakers, journalists, and entrepreneurs, among others. The finalists were selected from a competitive pool of over 200 applicants and represent a dynamic cohort of mid-career professionals who are committed to improving or establishing democratic governance, economic growth, and rule of law in their home countries.
The program is funded by generous support from Bill and Phyllis Draper and Ingrid von Mangoldt Hills.
Some interesting statistics to illustrate the diverse nature of this class are as follows: 50% are women, the average age is 37 years, almost half hold graduate degrees, and Africa and the Middle East represent the largest geographical proportion of the incoming class.
Collectively, the Draper Hills Summer Fellows are helping to accelerate social and political change by developing multiparty democracy in Ghana, fighting for minority rights in Nepal, promoting good governance in Zimbabwe, training political parties in Iraq, and advocating for constitutional reform in Venezuela.
This group will convene at Stanford University July 25-August 12 for a three-week intensive executive education program led by an interdisciplinary team of leading faculty affiliated with CDDRL. During this time, the Draper Hills Summer Fellows will hear from distinguished speakers, engage in peer learning, and meet with executives of leading Silicon Valley companies and non-profit organizations to share best practices and expand their professional networks.
This high-impact program helps to create a broader community of global activists and practitioners intent on sharing experiences to bring positive change where democracy is at risk.
Click the link below to review the profiles of the 2011 Class of Draper Hills Summer Fellows:
Belina Tang
