How was it that Afghanistan, a country that was often conquered and ruled by outsiders before 1800, became seemingly impossible to conquer and rule in the 19th and 20th centuries? An historical examination of Afghan history reveals that premodern Central Asian rulers looked upon war and conquest as the business of displacing rival elites, a process having little or nothing to do with the inhabitants of the territory. During the 19th century, this pattern began to change in Afghanistan where governments found themselves dependent on raising tribal armies to repel foreign invaders, such as the British, at the cost of sharing power with them in the postwar period. This pattern continued into the 20th century when during each period of state collapse drew an ever-wider part of the population into the political struggle for power. The Soviet invasion drew the widest possible opposition but upon their withdrawal no faction was able to create a stable government. Afghanistan fell into ten years of civil war that opened it up to extreme movements such the Taliban and its exploitation by outsiders such as Osama bin Laden. Since war alone has now proved incapable of solving Afghanistan's problems the current conflict in Afghanistan can only be won by a wider policy that makes Afghanistan's economic and political reconstruction a priority in a way that can end its cycle of anarchy.

The terrorist attacks on September 11 threw Afghanistan back into the international spotlight. This time, the events impacted not only Afghanistan's relationship with the United States and Russia, but also its relations with Pakistan. Dr. Amin Tarzi will work to put this change in relations between Afghanistan, her neighbors, the United States, and Russia into a perspective that will allow for a discussion on the current situation in the region and the future geopolitical role of Afghanistan. Amin Tarzi is a U.S. national of Afghan origins. His academic and professional expertise is in the history and politics of the Middle East and Central Asia, with a particular focus on the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, as well as Iran and Afghanistan. Dr. Tarzi has written extensively on topics related to the proliferation and politics of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems, the politics of oil, the United States vis a vis the Arab world, and current affairs in Egypt, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan -- including the Taliban and U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

As President George W. Bush faces the hardest days of his presidency, issues like terrorism, missile defense, and overall national security will be major issues of discussion in the upcoming months. How will the world cope with the global war on terrorism? How will our reactions to what happened on September 11th affect the rest of the world and vice versa? Hear what the Consul Generals of the Russian Federation and India have to say as they discuss the economic, political, and military concerns in their countries. For reservations please call 1-800-847-7730 or register on line at www.commonwealthclub.org.

This luncheon comes at a time when the Shorenstein Forum is nurturing a special interest in journalism, and embarking on shared activities with its sister institution at Harvard, the Shorenstein Center on Press, Politics, and Public Policy. The Forum is delighted to welcome this distinguished delegation from the Brookings Institution. ***** THIS LUNCHEON IS BY INVITATION ONLY. *****

A dozen years have passed since the end of the Cold War, but the legacy remains in both Western and Eastern Europe. This workshop aims to bring together scholars and experts from a variety of disciplines and backgrounds to discuss the ways in which the detrimental effects on social, political and economic structures of the legacy can be alleviated.

The workshop will develop two aspects of this issue: the external security structure represented by NATO and the emerging EU security policy; and the internal security structure including threats to civil society and problems of political and economic transition. Four papers would be delivered in each of two sessions. Participation would be balanced between US and European contributors.

Session One: The Legacy of the Cold War on Europe's External Security Structure

Paper 1:

NATO, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and Common Foreign- and Security Policy of the European Union: Cooperation or Competition?

Paper 2:

The Transatlantic Imbalance: Why does the US still carry the burden of Europe's defense?

Paper 3:

NATO Expansion and the Russian Reaction

Paper 4:

The EU's CFSP and the Role of the Rapid Reaction Force

Session Two: The Legacy of the Cold War on Europe's Internal Security and Stability

Paper 5:

Nuclear Safety and the Problem of Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material

Paper 6:

Immigration and Asylum Issues in the Light of EU Enlargement

Paper 7:

Economic Stability and the Incorporation of the Transition Economies

Paper 8:

The Political Legacy of the Cold War and the Development of Democratic Institutions in Central and Eastern Europe

Qian investigates decentralization and fiscal incentives in the central-provincial relationship during China's reform. He finds a strong correlation between local government revenue collection and local government expenditure and shows that the fiscal contracting system provides local governments with strong fiscal incentives. He also finds that stronger fiscal incentives in terms of higher marginal revenue retention rate implies faster development of non-state enterprises and more reform in state-owned enterprises. Federalism, Chinese style, is compared to federalism, Russian style. Born in Beijing, Yingyi Qian received his B.S. in applied mathematics from Tsinghua University, Beijing; his M.A. in statistics from Columbia University; his M.Phil. in management science from Yale University; and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. Professor Qian's fields of research include the theory of organizations, comparative institutional analysis, economics of transition, and reform and development in China. He is the author and co-author of many papers, including "Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraints," "Understanding China's Township-Village Enterprises," "Financial System Reform in China: Lessons from Japan's Main-Bank System," and "Enterprise Reform in China: Agency Problems and Political Control."

The talk deals with the affects of state-led industrialization on social formation in South Korea. Ha focuses on explaining why traditional primary ties have become dominant social units in spite of extensive and rapid economic changes. Going beyond a conventional abstract state-based explanation of Korean economic success, his talk traces historical origins of social conditions in the 1960s which interacted with state-initiated economic development to bring about neofamilial social units. By proposing a different framework to understand social consequences of Korean industrialization, theoretical and practical advantages will be presented through specific examples, such as the nature of civil society, middle class and bureaucracy. Prof. Ha received his Ph.D. from UC Berkeley in 1985. He has been teaching at the Department of International Relations of Seoul National University since 1986. He is currently on leave as visiting professor at the Department of Political Science of UC Berkeley. His recent research is on industrialization and tradition in late industrializing countries and the impacts of the role of strong state on society. He is preparing a book on social institutional dynamics of late industrializing countries. Some of his works include: Legitimacy and Stability under Brezhnev: A Case of Drifting Regime Type (1997, in Russian), Industrialization and Debureaucratization of Korean Bureaucracy (1996, in Korean), The Modern School System and the Reinforcement of School Ties: A Paradox of Colonial Control (1997).