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America Votes 2024: Stanford Scholars on the Election's Most Critical Questions

The 2024 presidential and congressional elections are a pivotal moment for American democracy. Their outcomes will shape policy directions, test democratic institutions, influence Supreme Court appointments, and determine legislative power, impacting both domestic and global affairs.

This is the fourth in a series of four panel discussions in which Stanford’s leading social scientists will draw on their cutting-edge research to examine the multifaceted issues at play in this especially consequential election. We will explore the historical context of the presidential elections, the sources and degree of social polarization, the role of race and socio-economic status in voting, public opinion, vote and voter manipulation, electoral integrity, and the comparative dimensions of the elections in the United States.

POLLING: WHAT IS ON THE MINDS OF AMERICANS?

Attempts to understand what is in the hearts and minds of American voters has become increasingly difficult, and recent polls leading up to elections have often turned conventional wisdom on its head. This session will explore some innovative polling practices and what we learned from political polls during the 2024 elections, including from one of the largest national panel surveys that started in December 2023. Panelists will discuss what was on the minds of Americans as they entered the voting booth this fall, and the strengths and limitations of our attempts to understand voters through polling.

PANELISTS:

  • David Brady, Bowen H. & Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values, Emeritus; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at SIEPR
  • Douglas Rivers, Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
  • Daron Shaw, University Distinguished Teaching Professor & Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Chair of State Politics, University of Texas at Austin
  • Lynn Vavreck, Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy, University of California Los Angeles


Co-sponsored and co-organized by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University; the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, at the Hoover Institution; and the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences.

CDDRL, RAI, and IRiSS logos

About the Speakers

David Brady

David Brady

Bowen H. & Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values, Emeritus; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at SIEPR
full bio

David Brady is the Davies Family Senior Fellow, Emeritus at the Hoover Institution, and the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science in the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

He has published seven books and more than a hundred papers in journals and books.  Among his most recent books are Leadership and Growth (World Bank Publications, 2010) with Michael Spence, Revolving Gridlock: Politics and Policy from Carter to Bush II (Westview Press, 2006), and Red and Blue Nation? Characteristics and Causes of America’s Polarized Politics with Pietro Nivola (Brookings Institution Press, 2007).  His recent articles include “Why Is Health Care Reform So Difficult?” with Daniel Kessler, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, April 2010; “Putting the Public’s Money Where Its Mouth Is”  with Daniel Kessler, Health Affairs: The Policy Journal of the Health Sphere, August 2009, pages 917–25; “Leadership and Politics: A Perspective from the Growth Commission,” with Michael Spence, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 25, no. 2 (2009): 205–18; “The 2010 Elections: Why Did Political Science Forecasts Go Awry?” with Morris P. Fiorina and Arjun Wilkins, 2011.

Brady has been on continual appointment at Stanford University since 1986, where he has served as associate dean for Academic Affairs in the Graduate School of Business (GSB) and as vice provost for Distance Learning.  He has twice been a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1987.  He presently holds the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professorship in Ethics at the Business School and was deputy director of the Hoover Institution from 2004-2014.

During his teaching career, he won the Dinkelspiel Award for service to undergraduates, the Richard Lyman Prize for service to alumni, the Bob Davies Award and the Jaedicke Silver Cup from the GSB, and the first Phi Beta Kappa Teaching Award given at Stanford.  He also won the George Brown Teaching Award at Rice University.

Douglas Rivers

Douglas Rivers

Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
full bio

Douglas Rivers is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor of political science at Stanford University. He is also the Chief Scientist at YouGov PLC, a global polling firm

Daron Shaw

Jonathan Rodden

Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
full bio

Daron Shaw earned his Ph.D. from the University of California, Los Angeles. Prior to accepting a position at the University of Texas in the fall of 1994, he worked in several political campaigns as a survey research analyst. Professor Shaw also served as a strategist in the 2000 and 2004 presidential election campaigns. His research and teaching interests include American Government, Campaigns and Elections, Political Parties, Public Opinion and Voting Behavior, and Applied Survey Research. He is co-director of the Fox News Poll, co-director of the University of Texas Poll, director of the Texas Lyceum Poll, and associate Principle Investigator for the 2020 and 2024 American National Election Studies. Professor Shaw is also a member of the national decision team for Fox News, and serves on the advisory boards for the MIT Election Data & Science Lab, the Annette Strauss Institute, and the Ulysses S. Grant Institute. Formerly, he served as President George W. Bush’s representative on the National Historical Publications and Records Commission and as one of the academic directors for President Barack Obama’s Commission for Election Administration.

Professor Shaw’s most recent book is Battleground: Electoral College Strategies, Execution and Impact in the Modern Era (Oxford University Press, co-authored with Scott Althaus and Costas Panagopoulos). He has also written The Appearance of Corruption (co-authored with Brian Roberts), The Turnout Myth (co-authored with John Petrocik), Unconventional Wisdom: Facts and Myths about American Voters (co-authored with Karen Kaufmann and John Petrocik) and The Race to 270. In addition, Professor Shaw has published articles in the leading journals in the discipline, including American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Public Opinion Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, Political Behavior, Political Communication, Political Geography, PS: Political Science, Party Politics, Presidential Studies Quarterly, and American Politics Research.

Lynn Vavreck

Lynn Vavreck

Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy, University of California Los Angeles
full bio

Lynn Vavreck is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, a contributing columnist to The Upshot at The New York Times, and a recipient of the Andrew F. Carnegie Prize in the Humanities and Social Sciences.  She is the author of five books, including the “most ominous” book on the 2016 election: Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America, and The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election, described as the “definitive account” of the 2012 election. Political consultants on both sides of the aisle refer to her work on political messaging in The Message Matters as “required reading” for presidential candidates. Her research has been supported by the National Science Foundation and she has served on the advisory boards of both the British and American National Election Studies. At UCLA she teaches courses on campaigns, elections, public opinion, and the 1960s. Professor Vavreck holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Rochester and held previous appointments at Princeton University, Dartmouth College, and The White House.  A native of Cleveland, Ohio, she remains a loyal Browns fan and is a “known equestrian” – to draw on a phrase from the 2012 presidential campaign.

Brandice Canes-Wrone

Online via Zoom: Open to the public

David Brady
Douglas Rivers
Daron Shaw
Lynn Vavreck
Panel Discussions
Date Label
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America Votes 2024: Stanford Scholars on the Election's Most Critical Questions

The 2024 presidential and congressional elections are a pivotal moment for American democracy. Their outcomes will shape policy directions, test democratic institutions, influence Supreme Court appointments, and determine legislative power, impacting both domestic and global affairs.

This is the third in a series of four panel discussions in which Stanford’s leading social scientists will draw on their cutting-edge research to examine the multifaceted issues at play in this especially consequential election. We will explore the historical context of the presidential elections, the sources and degree of social polarization, the role of race and socio-economic status in voting, public opinion, vote and voter manipulation, electoral integrity, and the comparative dimensions of the elections in the United States.

PANELISTS:

  • Hakeem Jefferson, Assistant Professor, Political Science, CDDRL Faculty Affiliate
    • "The Role of Race in the 2024 Elections"
  • Anna Grzymala-Busse, Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies; Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Director, The Europe Center
    • "How Illiberal Populists Lose: Lessons from Europe"
  • Jonathan Rodden, Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
    • "Divided Parties and Political Strategies in the US Elections"
  • Didi Kuo, Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
    • "The State of the Parties and Political Reforms"


Co-sponsored and co-organized by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University; the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, at the Hoover Institution; and the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences.

CDDRL, RAI, and IRiSS logos

About the Speakers

Hakeem Jefferson

Hakeem Jefferson

Assistant Professor, Political Science, CDDRL Faculty Affiliate
full bio

Hakeem Jefferson is an assistant professor of political science at Stanford University where he is also a faculty affiliate with the Center for Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity and the Stanford Center for American Democracy. During the 2021-22 academic year he was also the SAGE Sara Miller McCune Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences.

Hakeem’s work focuses primarily on the role identity plays in structuring political attitudes and behaviors in the U.S. His in-progress book project builds on his award-winning dissertation to consider how Black Americans come to support punitive social policies that target members of their racial group.

In other projects, Hakeem examines the causes of the racial divide in Americans’ reactions to officer-involved shootings; works to evaluate the meaningfulness of key political concepts, like ideological identification among Black Americans; and considers how white Americans navigate an identity that many within the group perceive as increasingly stigmatized. In these and other projects, Hakeem sets out to showcase and clarify the important and complex ways that identity matters across all domains of American life.

A public-facing, justice-oriented scholar, Hakeem is an academic contributor at FiveThirtyEight and his writings and commentary have been featured in places like the New York Times, The Washington Post, NPR, and other major outlets. He is also active on Twitter, and you can follow him @hakeemjefferson.

Anna Grzymala-Busse

Anna Grzymala-Busse

Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies; Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Director, The Europe Center
full bio

Anna Grzymała-Busse is a professor in the Department of Political Science, the Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the director of The Europe Center. Her research interests include political parties, state development and transformation, informal political institutions, religion and politics, and post-communist politics.

In her first book, Redeeming the Communist Past, she examined the paradox of the communist successor parties in East Central Europe: incompetent as authoritarian rulers of the communist party-state, several then succeeded as democratic competitors after the collapse of these communist regimes in 1989.

Rebuilding Leviathan, her second book project, investigated the role of political parties and party competition in the reconstruction of the post-communist state. Unless checked by a robust competition, democratic governing parties simultaneously rebuilt the state and ensured their own survival by building in enormous discretion into new state institutions.

Anna's third book, Nations Under God, examines why some churches have been able to wield enormous policy influence. Others have failed to do so, even in very religious countries. Where religious and national identities have historically fused, churches gained great moral authority, and subsequently covert and direct access to state institutions. It was this institutional access, rather than either partisan coalitions or electoral mobilization, that allowed some churches to become so powerful.

Anna's most recent book, Sacred Foundations: The Religious and Medieval Roots of the European State, argues that the medieval church was a fundamental force in European state formation.

Other areas of interest include informal institutions, the impact of European Union membership on politics in newer member countries, and the role of temporality and causal mechanisms in social science explanations.

Jonathan Rodden

Jonathan Rodden

Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
full bio

Jonathan Rodden is a professor in the political science department at Stanford who works on the comparative political economy of institutions. He has written several articles and three books on federalism and fiscal decentralization. One of those books, Hamilton’s Paradox: The Promise and Peril of Fiscal Federalism, was the recipient of the Gregory Luebbert Prize for the best book in comparative politics in 2007. He works with institutions including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, USAID, and the European Parliament on issues related to fiscal decentralization and federalism.

He has also written papers on the geographic distribution of political preferences within countries, legislative bargaining, the distribution of budgetary transfers across regions, and the historical origins of political institutions. He has written a series of papers applying tools from mathematics and computer science to questions about redistricting, culminating in a 2019 book called Why Cities Lose: The Deep Roots of the Urban-Rural Political Divide (Basic Books). Rodden has also embarked on an interdisciplinary collaborative project focused on handgun acquisition.

Rodden received his PhD from Yale University and his BA from the University of Michigan, and was a Fulbright student at the University of Leipzig, Germany. Before joining the Stanford faculty in 2007, he was the Ford Associate Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Didi Kuo

Didi Kuo

Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
full bio

Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She is a scholar of comparative politics with a focus on democratization, corruption and clientelism, political parties and institutions, and political reform. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave and Why They Don’t (Oxford University Press, forthcoming) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the rise of programmatic politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press, 2018).

She has been at Stanford since 2013 as the manager of the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective and is co-director of the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL. She was an Eric and Wendy Schmidt Fellow at New America and is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University, an MSc in Economic and Social History from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner
Michael Tomz

In-person: William J. Perry Conference Room (Encina Hall, 2nd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)

Online: Via Zoom — open to the public

0
Assistant Professor, Political Science
hakeem_jefferson_2022.jpg

Hakeem Jefferson is an assistant professor of political science at Stanford University where he is also a faculty affiliate with the Center for Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity and the Stanford Center for American Democracy. During the 2021-22 academic year he was also the SAGE Sara Miller McCune Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences.

Hakeem’s work focuses primarily on the role identity plays in structuring political attitudes and behaviors in the U.S. His in-progress book project builds on his award-winning dissertation to consider how Black Americans come to support punitive social policies that target members of their racial group.

In other projects, Hakeem examines the causes of the racial divide in Americans’ reactions to officer-involved shootings; works to evaluate the meaningfulness of key political concepts, like ideological identification among Black Americans; and considers how white Americans navigate an identity that many within the group perceive as increasingly stigmatized. In these and other projects, Hakeem sets out to showcase and clarify the important and complex ways that identity matters across all domains of American life.

A public-facing, justice-oriented scholar, Hakeem is an academic contributor at FiveThirtyEight and his writings and commentary have been featured in places like the New York Times, The Washington Post, NPR, and other major outlets. He is also active on Twitter, and you can follow him @hakeemjefferson.

CDDRL Affiliated Faculty
CV
Hakeem Jefferson

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA  94305

 

(650) 723-4270
0
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies
Professor of Political Science
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
anna_gb_4_2022.jpg

Anna Grzymała-Busse is a professor in the Department of Political Science, the Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the director of The Europe Center. Her research interests include political parties, state development and transformation, informal political institutions, religion and politics, and post-communist politics.

In her first book, Redeeming the Communist Past, she examined the paradox of the communist successor parties in East Central Europe: incompetent as authoritarian rulers of the communist party-state, several then succeeded as democratic competitors after the collapse of these communist regimes in 1989.

Rebuilding Leviathan, her second book project, investigated the role of political parties and party competition in the reconstruction of the post-communist state. Unless checked by a robust competition, democratic governing parties simultaneously rebuilt the state and ensured their own survival by building in enormous discretion into new state institutions.

Anna's third book, Nations Under God, examines why some churches have been able to wield enormous policy influence. Others have failed to do so, even in very religious countries. Where religious and national identities have historically fused, churches gained great moral authority, and subsequently covert and direct access to state institutions. It was this institutional access, rather than either partisan coalitions or electoral mobilization, that allowed some churches to become so powerful.

Anna's most recent book, Sacred Foundations: The Religious and Medieval Roots of the European State argues that the medieval church was a fundamental force in European state formation.

Other areas of interest include informal institutions, the impact of European Union membership on politics in newer member countries, and the role of temporality and causal mechanisms in social science explanations.

Director of The Europe Center
Anna Grzymała-Busse
Jonathan Rodden

Encina Hall, C150
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

0
Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
didi_kuo_2023.jpg

Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She is a scholar of comparative politics with a focus on democratization, corruption and clientelism, political parties and institutions, and political reform. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave and Why They Don’t (Oxford University Press, forthcoming) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the rise of programmatic politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press, 2018).

She has been at Stanford since 2013 as the manager of the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective and is co-director of the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL. She was an Eric and Wendy Schmidt Fellow at New America and is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University, an MSc in Economic and Social History from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

Didi Kuo
Panel Discussions
Date Label
-
America Votes 2024: Stanford Scholars on the Election's Most Critical Questions

The 2024 presidential and congressional elections are a pivotal moment for American democracy. Their outcomes will shape policy directions, test democratic institutions, influence Supreme Court appointments, and determine legislative power, impacting both domestic and global affairs.

This is the second in a series of four panel discussions in which Stanford’s leading social scientists will draw on their cutting-edge research to examine the multifaceted issues at play in this especially consequential election. We will explore the historical context of the presidential elections, the sources and degree of social polarization, the role of race and socio-economic status in voting, public opinion, vote and voter manipulation, electoral integrity, and the comparative dimensions of the elections in the United States.

PANELISTS:

  • Brandice Canes-Wrone, Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director of the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions
    • "The 2024 Presidential Election in Historical Context"
  • Justin Grimmer, Morris M. Doyle Centennial Professor of Public Policy and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
    • "Vote and Voter Manipulation"
  • Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and William L. Clayton Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
    • "Reforms to Depolarize American Democracy"


Co-sponsored and co-organized by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University; the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, at the Hoover Institution; and the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences.

CDDRL, RAI, and IRiSS logos

About the Speakers

Brandice Canes-Wrone

Brandice Canes-Wrone

Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director of the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions
full bio

Brandice Canes-Wrone is a professor in the political science department and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. She is also the director of the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions. Her current research focuses on representation and accountability, including projects on elections, campaign finance, and representation.

During the course of her career, Canes-Wrone has published numerous articles and books in the areas of political institutions, mass political behavior, and political economy. On political institutions, she has a longstanding interest in executive politics. Her book Who Leads Whom? Presidents, Policy, and Public (University of Chicago, 2006) was awarded the Richard E. Neustadt prize by the American Political Science Association for the best book on the US presidency that year. More recent scholarship involves comparative analysis of how institutional constraints on the executive are associated with economic performance.

Other current research focuses on accountability and representation in the US context. She coedited Accountability Reconsidered: Voters, Interests, and Information in US Policymaking (Cambridge University Press, 2023) with Chuck Cameron, Sandy Gordon, and Greg Huber, and in this volume, she and Michael Kistner examine how changes in the US local media are associated with developments in congressional electoral accountability. Additionally, she has a series of recent publications on campaign finance, including on the motivations of campaign donors (with Michael Barber and Sharece Thrower), congressional members’ responsiveness to donors (with Kenneth Miller, and in separate work, Nathan Gibson), and comparing the attitudes of donors to other constituencies (with Michael Barber, Josh Clinton, and Greg Huber).

Canes-Wrone is an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and has served on the editorial boards of numerous political science and political economy journals. She has also served on the boards of the American National Elections Studies, the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, and the Presidents and Executive Politics Section of the American Political Science Association, including as President of this section.

Prior to joining the Stanford faculty, Canes-Wrone was on the faculties of MIT, Northwestern, and Princeton. She holds a Bachelor’s degree from Princeton and a PhD from Stanford.

Justin Grimmer

Justin Grimmer

Morris M. Doyle Centennial Professor of Public Policy and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
full bio

Justin Grimmer is the Morris M. Doyle Centennial Professor in Public Policy in Stanford University's Department of Political Science, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and Co-Director of the Democracy and Polarization Lab. His current research focuses on American political institutions, elections, and developing new machine-learning methods for the study of politics.

His research examines how representation occurs in US politics using new statistical methods. His first book, Representational Style in Congress: What Legislators Say and Why It Matters (Cambridge University Press, 2013), shows how senators define the type of representation they provide constituents and how this affects constituents’ evaluations. The book was awarded the Fenno Prize in 2014 for best book published about Congress. His second book, The Impression of Influence: Legislator Communication, Representation, and Democratic Accountability (Princeton University Press, 2014, with Sean J. Westwood and Solomon Messing), demonstrates how legislators ensure they receive credit for government actions.

His current research projects include a book project on text as data methods for the social sciences, an examination of how electoral rules affect political participation, and an analysis of how social media affect democracies. His previous work has appeared in the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Political Analysis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Regulation and Governance, and several top computer science publication outlets.

He holds a PhD from Harvard University and an AB from Wabash College.

Professor Larry Diamond

Larry Diamond

Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and William L. Clayton Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
full bio

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He is a senior consultant at the International Forum for Democratic Studies of the National Endowment for Democracy, where he served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Michael Tomz

In-person: William J. Perry Conference Room (Encina Hall, 2nd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)

Online: Via Zoom

Brandice Canes-Wrone
Justin Grimmer

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
0
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png
MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Date Label
Larry Diamond
Panel Discussions
Date Label
-
America Votes 2024: Stanford Scholars on the Election's Most Critical Questions

The 2024 presidential and congressional elections are a pivotal moment for American democracy. Their outcomes will shape policy directions, test democratic institutions, influence Supreme Court appointments, and determine legislative power, impacting both domestic and global affairs.

This is the first in a series of four panel discussions in which Stanford’s leading social scientists will draw on their cutting-edge research to examine the multifaceted issues at play in this especially consequential election. We will explore the historical context of the presidential elections, the sources and degree of social polarization, the role of race and socio-economic status in voting, public opinion, vote and voter manipulation, electoral integrity, and the comparative dimensions of the elections in the United States.

PANELISTS:

  • Beatriz Magaloni, Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science; Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
    • "The US Elections in a Year of Voting Across the Globe" 
  • Shanto Iyengar, William Robertson Coe Professor and Professor of Political Science and of Communication
    • "Campaign Strategy in an Era of Polarization"
  • Nathaniel Persily, James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School; Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
    • "Administering the 2024 Election" 


Co-sponsored and co-organized by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University; the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, at the Hoover Institution; and the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences.

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About the Speakers

Beatriz Magaloni

Beatriz Magaloni

Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science; Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
full bio

Beatriz Magaloni is the Graham Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science. Magaloni is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, where she holds affiliations with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). She is also a Stanford’s King Center for Global Development faculty affiliate. Magaloni has taught at Stanford University for over two decades.

She leads the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (Povgov). Founded by Magaloni in 2010, Povgov is one of Stanford University’s leading impact-driven knowledge production laboratories in the social sciences. Under her leadership, Povgov has innovated and advanced a host of cutting-edge research agendas to reduce violence and poverty and promote peace, security, and human rights.

Magaloni’s work has contributed to the study of authoritarian politics, poverty alleviation, indigenous governance, and, more recently, violence, crime, security institutions, and human rights. Her first book, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico (Cambridge University Press, 2006) is widely recognized as a seminal study in the field of comparative politics. It received the 2007 Leon Epstein Award for the Best Book published in the previous two years in the area of political parties and organizations, as well as the Best Book Award from the American Political Science Association’s Comparative Democratization Section. Her second book The Politics of Poverty Relief: Strategies of Vote Buying and Social Policies in Mexico (with Alberto Diaz-Cayeros and Federico Estevez) (Cambridge University Press, 2016) explores how politics shapes poverty alleviation.

Magaloni’s work was published in leading journals, including the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Criminology & Public Policy, World Development, Comparative Political Studies, Annual Review of Political Science, Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, Latin American Research Review, and others.

Magaloni received wide international acclaim for identifying innovative solutions for salient societal problems through impact-driven research. In 2023, she was named winner of the world-renowned Stockholm Prize in Criminology, considered an equivalent of the Nobel Prize in the field of criminology. The award recognized her extensive research on crime, policing, and human rights in Mexico and Brazil. Magaloni’s research production in this area was also recognized by the American Political Science Association, which named her recipient of the 2021 Heinz I. Eulau Award for the best article published in the American Political Science Review, the leading journal in the discipline.

She received her Ph.D. in political science from Duke University and holds a law degree from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México.

Shanto Iyengar

Shanto Iyengar

William Robertson Coe Professor and Professor of Political Science and of Communication
full bio

Shanto Iyengar is a Professor of Political Science and Director of the Political Communication Laboratory. Iyengar’s areas of expertise include the role of mass media in democratic societies, public opinion, and political psychology. Iyengar’s research has been supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Ford Foundation, the Pew Charitable Trusts, and the Hewlett Foundation. He is the recipient of several professional awards including the Philip Converse Award of the American Political Science Association for the best book in the field of public opinion, the Murray Edelman Lifetime Achievement Award, and the Goldsmith Book Prize from Harvard University.

Iyengar is author or co-author of several books, including News That Matters (University of Chicago Press, 1987), Is Anyone Responsible? (University of Chicago Press, 1991), Explorations in Political Psychology (Duke University Press, 1995), Going Negative (Free Press, 1995), and Media Politics: A Citizen’s Guide (Norton, 2011).

Nate Persily

Nathaniel Persily

James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School; Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
full bio

Nathaniel Persily is the James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School, with appointments in the departments of Political Science, Communication, and FSI.  Prior to joining Stanford, Professor Persily taught at Columbia and the University of Pennsylvania Law School, and as a visiting professor at Harvard, NYU, Princeton, the University of Amsterdam, and the University of Melbourne.

Professor Persily’s scholarship and legal practice focus on American election law or what is sometimes called the “law of democracy,” which addresses issues such as voting rights, political parties, campaign finance, redistricting, and election administration. He has served as a special master or court-appointed expert to craft congressional or legislative districting plans for Georgia, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. He also served as the Senior Research Director for the Presidential Commission on Election Administration. In addition to dozens of articles (many of which have been cited by the Supreme Court) on the legal regulation of political parties, issues surrounding the census and redistricting process, voting rights, and campaign finance reform, Professor Persily is coauthor of the leading election law casebook, The Law of Democracy (Foundation Press, 5th ed., 2016), with Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela Karlan, and Richard Pildes. His current work, for which he has been honored as a Guggenheim Fellow, Andrew Carnegie Fellow, and a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, examines the impact of changing technology on political communication, campaigns, and election administration.

He is co-director of the Stanford Cyber Policy Center, Stanford Program on Democracy and the Internet, and Social Science One, a project to make available to the world’s research community privacy-protected Facebook data to study the impact of social media on democracy.  He is also a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a commissioner on the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age.  Along with Professor Charles Stewart III, he recently founded HealthyElections.Org (the Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project), which aims to support local election officials in taking the necessary steps during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide safe voting options for the 2020 election. He received a B.A. and M.A. in political science from Yale (1992); a J.D. from Stanford (1998) where he was President of the Stanford Law Review, and a Ph.D. in political science from U.C. Berkeley in 2002.   

Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner

In-person: William J. Perry Conference Room (Encina Hall, 2nd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)

Due to limited seating, the in-person portion of this event is limited to Stanford affiliates only.

Online: Via Zoom — open to the public

Dept. of Political Science
Encina Hall, Room 436
Stanford University,
Stanford, CA

(650) 724-5949
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations
Professor of Political Science
bmkhigh.jpg
MA, PhD

Beatriz Magaloni Magaloni is the Graham Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science. Magaloni is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, where she holds affiliations with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). She is also a Stanford’s King Center for Global Development faculty affiliate. Magaloni has taught at Stanford University for over two decades.

She leads the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (Povgov). Founded by Magaloni in 2010, Povgov is one of Stanford University’s leading impact-driven knowledge production laboratories in the social sciences. Under her leadership, Povgov has innovated and advanced a host of cutting-edge research agendas to reduce violence and poverty and promote peace, security, and human rights.

Magaloni’s work has contributed to the study of authoritarian politics, poverty alleviation, indigenous governance, and, more recently, violence, crime, security institutions, and human rights. Her first book, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico (Cambridge University Press, 2006) is widely recognized as a seminal study in the field of comparative politics. It received the 2007 Leon Epstein Award for the Best Book published in the previous two years in the area of political parties and organizations, as well as the Best Book Award from the American Political Science Association’s Comparative Democratization Section. Her second book The Politics of Poverty Relief: Strategies of Vote Buying and Social Policies in Mexico (with Alberto Diaz-Cayeros and Federico Estevez) (Cambridge University Press, 2016) explores how politics shapes poverty alleviation.

Magaloni’s work was published in leading journals, including the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Criminology & Public Policy, World Development, Comparative Political Studies, Annual Review of Political Science, Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, Latin American Research Review, and others.

Magaloni received wide international acclaim for identifying innovative solutions for salient societal problems through impact-driven research. In 2023, she was named winner of the world-renowned Stockholm Prize in Criminology, considered an equivalent of the Nobel Prize in the field of criminology. The award recognized her extensive research on crime, policing, and human rights in Mexico and Brazil. Magaloni’s research production in this area was also recognized by the American Political Science Association, which named her recipient of the 2021 Heinz I. Eulau Award for the best article published in the American Political Science Review, the leading journal in the discipline.

She received her Ph.D. in political science from Duke University and holds a law degree from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México.

CV
Beatriz Magaloni
Shanto Iyengar
Stanford Law School Neukom Building, Room N230 Stanford, CA 94305
650-725-9875
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James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute
Professor, by courtesy, Political Science
Professor, by courtesy, Communication
headshot_3.jpg

Nathaniel Persily is the James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School, with appointments in the departments of Political Science, Communication, and FSI.  Prior to joining Stanford, Professor Persily taught at Columbia and the University of Pennsylvania Law School, and as a visiting professor at Harvard, NYU, Princeton, the University of Amsterdam, and the University of Melbourne. Professor Persily’s scholarship and legal practice focus on American election law or what is sometimes called the “law of democracy,” which addresses issues such as voting rights, political parties, campaign finance, redistricting, and election administration. He has served as a special master or court-appointed expert to craft congressional or legislative districting plans for Georgia, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.  He also served as the Senior Research Director for the Presidential Commission on Election Administration. In addition to dozens of articles (many of which have been cited by the Supreme Court) on the legal regulation of political parties, issues surrounding the census and redistricting process, voting rights, and campaign finance reform, Professor Persily is coauthor of the leading election law casebook, The Law of Democracy (Foundation Press, 5th ed., 2016), with Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela Karlan, and Richard Pildes. His current work, for which he has been honored as a Guggenheim Fellow, Andrew Carnegie Fellow, and a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, examines the impact of changing technology on political communication, campaigns, and election administration.  He is codirector of the Stanford Program on Democracy and the Internet, and Social Science One, a project to make available to the world’s research community privacy-protected Facebook data to study the impact of social media on democracy.  He is also a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a commissioner on the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age.  Along with Professor Charles Stewart III, he recently founded HealthyElections.Org (the Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project) which aims to support local election officials in taking the necessary steps during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide safe voting options for the 2020 election. He received a B.A. and M.A. in political science from Yale (1992); a J.D. from Stanford (1998) where he was President of the Stanford Law Review, and a Ph.D. in political science from U.C. Berkeley in 2002.   

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Cover of the book "Walking Out," showing a group of Asian flags, with the American flag set apart from them.

Watch: APARC Book Launch Event

October 17, 2024

About the Book

From tariff wars to torn-up trade agreements, Michael Beeman explores America's recent and dramatic turn away from support for freer, rules-based trade to instead go its own new way. Focusing on America's trade engagements in the Asia-Pacific, he contrasts the trade policy choices made by America's leaders over several generations with those of today–decisions that are now undermining the trading system America created and triggering new tensions between America and its trading partners, allies and adversaries alike.

With keen insight as a former senior U.S. trade official, Beeman argues that America's exceptionally deep political divisions are driving its policy reversals, giving rise to a new trade policy characterized by zero-sum beliefs about the kind of trade America wants with the world and about new rules for trade that it wants for itself. With enormous implications for the future of regional and global trade, this timely analysis unravels the implications of America's seismic shift in approach for the future of the rules-based trading order and America's role in it.

Walking Out is essential reading for anyone interested in the domestic and international political economy of trade, international relations, and the future of America's role in the global economy.

About the Author

Michael L. Beeman is a visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and has taught international policy as a lecturer at Stanford University. From 2017–23, he was the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea, and APEC at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), where he led negotiations for the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement and for the updated U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, among other initiatives. Prior to this, he served for over a decade in other positions at USTR, including as Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan. He holds a DPhil in politics (University of Oxford) and an MA in international relations (Johns Hopkins University).

"In Walking Out, Beeman discusses how the two administrations have bucked traditional U.S. trade policy in myriad ways. This shift in policy has undermined the international trading system and stoked trade tensions between the U.S., its allies and adversaries, he contends." —Jason Asenso

Read the complete article at Inside U.S. Trade's "World Trade Online" (paywall) >

In the Media


Trump Second Term May Consider Deleting KORUS FTA Government Procurement Chapter 
The Korea Herald Business, January 24, 2025 (interview)

Trump to Push for Universal Tariffs through Legislation, Not Executive Order: Ex-USTR Official
Korea Economic Daily, November 27, 2024 (interview)

On Korea-U.S. Economic Cooperation in the Era of Walking Out
Yonhap News, November 20, 2024 (featured)

Trump Administration to "Reset Relations on the Assumption of Tariffs," Former USTR Official Says
Nikkei, November 15, 2024 (interview)
English version/ Japanese version

If Trump Is Re-elected, It Will be Impossible to Avoid Re-revision of the Korea-US FTA
JoongAng, October 31, 2024 (interview)

Can Democrats Win Back Voters from Trump on Trade Policy?
The New York Times, October 30, 2024 (quoted)

Multimedia from Book-Related Talks


US-South Korea Economic Cooperation in the Era of Walking Out
Korea Economic Institute, November 19, 2024
Watch > 

Book Talk: Walking Out
Wilson Center, October 28, 2024
Watch >

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America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond

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CDDRL seminar with Klaus Desmet - Polarization in the U.S.

There is growing concern over rising social divisions in the U.S. We develop a new method to endogenously partition society into groups based on homophily in values. The between-group differentiation that results from this partition provides a novel measure of latent polarization in society. For the last forty years, the degree of latent polarization of the U.S. public has been high and relatively stable. In contrast, the degree of partisan polarization between voters of the two main political parties steadily increased since the 1990s and is now converging toward that of underlying values-based clusters. Growing partisan polarization in the U.S. is a reflection of partisan views becoming increasingly aligned with the main values-based clusters in society.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Klaus Desmet is the Altshuler Professor of Cities, Regions and Globalization at Southern Methodist University, Research Fellow at CEPR, and Research Associate at NBER. He holds an MSc in Business and Engineering from the Université catholique de Louvain and a PhD in Economics from Stanford University. Before moving to SMU, he was Professor at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. His research focuses on regional economics, climate change, and political economy. His work has appeared in journals such as the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the Journal of Economic Theory, and the Journal of Development Economics. In 2019, he was the recipient of the Robert E. Lucas Jr. Prize, and in 2010, he was awarded the August Lösch Prize.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Hesham Sallam
Hesham Sallam

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

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As right-wing populism surges around the world, immigrants and their descendants often face discrimination and become targets of political scapegoating. Yet, the question of which groups of immigrants are targeted by anti-immigrant rhetoric is dependent on a host of factors, and there remains a lack of clear evidence on the reasons underlying xenophobic behavior and the othering of immigrant populations.

A new study, published in the American Political Science Review, introduces a novel international relations perspective, particularly the concept of geopolitical rivalry, into the literature on anti-immigrant sentiment. The study indicates citizens strongly prefer immigrants from non-rival countries over those from rival countries.

The study’s co-authors — including Kiyoteru Tsutsui, APARC deputy director and director of APARC’s Japan Program and Dartmouth College’s Charles Crabtree, a former visiting professor with the Japan Program, shift the research focus of anti-immigrant sentiment to the political dynamics between the immigrants' countries of origin and the destination countries. In doing so, the authors emphasize the importance of going beyond the existing preoccupation with the individual background characteristics of migrants and integrating the study of xenophobia within the global context of political competition and alliances.

Geopolitical Relations and Public Perceptions 

Traditionally, research on anti-immigrant attitudes has concentrated on factors such as race, culture, and labor market impacts. By contrast, Tsutsui and his co-authors build on the view that the political relations between immigrants’ origin and host countries shape citizen attitudes toward them. The researchers draw on this international relations perspective to argue that immigrants (as opposed to refugees) from countries with contentious or conflictual relationships with the host country are generally less welcomed than those from allied nations.

In each of the survey countries, immigrants from non-rival countries are strongly preferred over those from rival countries
Tsutsui et al.

To test this argument, the researchers used a method known as a forced-choice conjoint experiment, a technique whereby social scientists present survey participants with a series of hypothetical scenarios in which they must choose between two or more options — in this case, potential immigrants — each described by a set of varying attributes. Tsutsui and his co-authors had survey participants choose between two candidates for permanent residency, differentiated by their country of origin and various other attributes typically used in experiments to determine if labor market concerns outweigh preferences for specific immigrants.

The researchers fielded the experiment with nationally representative samples in 22 democracies, mostly in Europe and the Americas but also Asia and South Africa. They assigned four countries of origin to the immigrant profiles: two countries of origin with a similar racial and cultural make-up as the majority of the survey respondents, a rival country and an ally; and two countries with a different racial and cultural make-up.

The results strongly support the geopolitical rivalry argument: “In each of the survey countries, immigrants from non-rival countries are strongly preferred over those from rival countries,” the co-authors write. “The effect is so large that it results in a net preference for immigrants from countries with a dissimilar racial and cultural makeup than the majority of the host country.”

The researchers also show that the greater the respondents’ sense of their own country’s superiority, the stronger the international relations of their governments are mirrored in their preferences for immigrants. Furthermore, they find that members of ethno-racial majorities are more prone to the rivalry effect because they are more strongly identified with their nation compared to minority members.

The authors demonstrate that, for instance, in Western Europe, immigrants from Russia are less favored, while in East Asia, Chinese immigrants face similar hostility. This animosity towards immigrants from rival nations leads to a net preference for those with different racial or cultural backgrounds compared to the more favorable reception of immigrants from allied countries.

“The mechanisms we document in this article play an important part in the overall dynamic leading to the selective rejection or acceptance of immigrants,” Tsutsui and his colleagues summarize.

Addressing Anti-Immigrant Sentiment

In their empirical analysis, the researchers found minimal evidence of broad anti-Asian sentiment or “Sinophobia” beyond the effects of political rivalry. This conclusion holds consistently across various survey countries, continents, and immigrant origin countries. The detailed examination by survey country indicates that generalized racial or cultural biases did not significantly influence the observed preference for immigrants from politically aligned countries. The authors propose that future research expand the sample of survey countries, update and refine measures of political rivalry, and include a broader range of immigrant origins.

The study offers a new lens connecting geopolitical rivalries with xenophobia, providing a more nuanced understanding of public attitudes toward immigrants. Policymakers and researchers can use this framework to better anticipate and address potential backlash against immigrants from countries with politically contentious relations. Informed immigration policies that promote multiculturalism and social inclusion start with a deeper grasp of the forces shaping public perceptions and attitudes toward immigrants.

Read More

U.S. and China flags on Constitution Avenue, Washington, DC, with the Capitol building in the background.
News

Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab Receives Grants to Advance Policy Engagement and Research Collaboration

New grants to inform U.S. Asia policy and fuel cross-disciplinary research on Asia’s role in the global system of the 21st century.
cover link Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab Receives Grants to Advance Policy Engagement and Research Collaboration
Stanford building with palm trees and architectural details on the foreground and text "Call for Applications: Fall 2025 Fellowships" and APARC logo.
News

Stanford’s Asia-Pacific Research Center Invites Applications for Fall 2025 Asia Studies Fellowships

The Center offers multiple fellowships for Asia researchers to begin in Autumn quarter 2025. These include postdoctoral fellowships on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, a visiting scholar position on contemporary Taiwan, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.
cover link Stanford’s Asia-Pacific Research Center Invites Applications for Fall 2025 Asia Studies Fellowships
(Clockwise from top left) Michael McFaul, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Gi-Wook Shin, Kiyoteru Tsutsui
News

Stanford Experts Assess the Future of the Liberal International Order in the Indo-Pacific Amid the Rise of Autocracy, Sharp Power

At the Nikkei Forum, Freeman Spogli Institute scholars Oriana Skylar Mastro, Michael McFaul, Gi-Wook Shin, and Kiyoteru Tsutsui considered the impacts of the war in Ukraine, strategies of deterrence in Taiwan, and the growing tension between liberal democracy and authoritarian populism.
cover link Stanford Experts Assess the Future of the Liberal International Order in the Indo-Pacific Amid the Rise of Autocracy, Sharp Power
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Researchers including Stanford sociologist Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the deputy director of APARC and director of the Japan Program at APARC, find that geopolitical rivalries and alliances significantly shape citizen perceptions of immigrants.

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Democracy in the US and South Africa

In May 2024, South Africa went to elections in a plebiscite that saw the African National Congress (ANC) losing the absolute majority it had garnered since 1994. In November 2024, the United States goes to the polls in what will determine whether former President Donald Trump returns to the White House or Vice President Kamala Harris succeeds outgoing President Joe Biden.

There are distinct electoral politics differences between the two democracies. For instance, the U.S. elections are based on a direct presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial voting system. South Africa, on the other hand, operates a proportional representation voting system where citizens vote for parties, and each party chooses its cabinet, parliamentary, and municipal representatives from party lists. Whereas South Africa is evolving into a multiparty democracy with tens of political parties gunning for political power, the U.S. has two dominant parties, the Democratic and Republican parties.

Yet, there are a couple of similarities between the two democracies. For instance, race and race relations are hot-button issues. Migration and migrant populations are equally contentious electoral issues, as are issues of economic inequalities, matters of social justice, unemployment, and variances in the economic wherewithal of various regions. Equally important is that the apex leadership in both countries determines the ebb and flow of the relations between them. In the recent past, geopolitical tensions have sparked contestations on the current and future nature of South Africa-US relations.

Jonathan Jansen (Stellenbosch University) will moderate the virtual discussion, where panelists from Stanford University and the University of the Witwatersrand will weigh in on these and more issues, fleshing out similarities and debating differences. By the time of the discussion, the president of the United States would have been declared. This will permit moving the analysis away from speculation and toward a measure of certainty on what to expect in the US-South Africa relations in the next four years.  

This event is co-sponsored by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), the Center for African Studies (CAS), and the African Center for the Study of the United States, University of the Witwatersrand.

panelists

Professor Larry Diamond

Larry Diamond

Larry Diamond is William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. His research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy, and U.S. and international policies to advance democracy and counter authoritarian influence. He was the founding coeditor of the Journal of Democracy and he remains a consultant to the National Endowment for Democracy. Among his books is Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency.

Didi Kuo

Didi Kuo

Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. At Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), she oversees the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave - and Why They Don't (forthcoming, Oxford University Press) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the Rise of Programmatic Politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press 2018). She is a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and was a 2018 National Fellow at New America. She received a PhD from Harvard University, an MSc from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

Bob Wekesa

Bob Wekesa

Bob Wekesa is the Director of the African Centre for the Study of the United States at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits), South Africa. He is the interim coordinator of the Africa-U.S. Universities Network. He teaches and supervises international media and communications projects focusing on Africa-China and Africa-United States topics. He holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Nairobi (1998) and master’s and doctoral degrees from the Communication University of China (2012 and 2015 respectively). He has published over the years across thought leadership, academic journal papers, chapters and books, and policy papers. 

Thokozani Chilenga-Butao

Thokozani Chilenga-Butao

Thokozani Chilenga-Butao is a lecturer in Political Studies at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, where she also achieved her PhD. Her research interests are decentralization and federalism and their roles in state formation, governance, public administration, and public policy. She conducts empirical and applied research in a range of topics, including education, recentralization, and social grants such as the social relief of distress grant and the just energy transition. This involves research in some of South Africa’s largest government departments, including the Department of Basic Education, the National Treasury, and the former Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. In addition to teaching and research, Thokozani is an active member of university committees and research collaborations. She often comments on South African politics and the effects on governance, public administration, and public policy in local and international media.

Jonathan Jansen

Online via Zoom

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
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Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
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MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
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Larry Diamond

Encina Hall, C150
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

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Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She is a scholar of comparative politics with a focus on democratization, corruption and clientelism, political parties and institutions, and political reform. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave and Why They Don’t (Oxford University Press, forthcoming) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the rise of programmatic politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press, 2018).

She has been at Stanford since 2013 as the manager of the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective and is co-director of the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL. She was an Eric and Wendy Schmidt Fellow at New America and is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University, an MSc in Economic and Social History from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

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The Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) has received two grants to offer guidance for more effective U.S. foreign policy strategies in Asia and propose structural reforms that propel the region toward growth, innovation, and democratic resilience. The first grant, from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), supports SNAPL's policy engagements with stakeholders in Washington, D.C., forthcoming this September. The second grant, from Stanford Global Studies, funds a series of SNAPL-hosted research workshops throughout the 2024-25 academic year.

Both funded initiatives underscore SNAPL's commitment to generating evidence-based policy recommendations and promoting transnational collaboration with academic and policy institutions to advance the future prosperity of Asia and U.S.-Asia relations.

Housed at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), SNAPL is led by Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, a senior fellow at FSI, and the director of APARC and the Korea Program. The lab’s mission is to address emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges facing Asia-Pacific countries and guide effective U.S. Asia policies through interdisciplinary, comparative research and collaboration with academic and policy research institutions in Asia and the United States.  

“We are grateful to FSI and Stanford Global Studies for supporting SNAPL's interdisciplinary, policy-relevant research,” says Shin. “The two grants provide a tremendous boost as we work to contribute evidence-based recommendations to advance a more nuanced understanding of Asia's role in global affairs and informed new directions for U.S. Asia policies.”

Policy Considerations for U.S.-China and U.S.-Asia Relations


With a grant from FSI to support policy engagement, SNAPL team members will share research findings from several of the lab’s flagship projects. The SNAPL team — including Shin, Research Fellow Xinru Ma, and Postdoctoral Fellows Gidong Kim and Junki Nakahara — will travel to Washington, D.C. in September 2024 to present these findings at forums and meetings with academic and policy communities. The trip includes a joint symposium with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a presentation at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, and meetings with think tanks and Congress members.

Three core projects the team will share guide U.S. policies in Asia, particularly toward China. The first project challenges many pundits’ framing of the U.S.-China competition as a “new Cold War.” In contrast to this narrative, a recent SNAPL study reveals that contemporary U.S.-China relations are markedly different from the U.S.-Soviet Cold War dynamics. “Our analysis of over 41,000 Congressional speeches spanning 36 years suggests that current U.S. discourses on China mirror those on the past economic competition with Japan rather than the ideological or military conflicts with the USSR in the Cold War era,” says Ma. “Applying Cold War analogies to today's geopolitical landscape would thus misguide efforts to navigate current U.S.-China tensions.”

The research findings from a second SNAPL study offer a better understanding of how U.S. alliance relationships and U.S.-China tensions shape public attitudes toward China in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, another study challenges the conventional wisdom that democracy promotion gives the U.S. a competitive edge in its foreign policy over China. “Our research indicates that liberal values do not serve as a key lens through which Asia-Pacific citizens view recent geopolitical developments,” notes Kim. “The United States should therefore pivot from focusing on liberal rhetoric to emphasizing its role in promoting shared benefits with Asia-Pacific citizens in economic, trade, and military security areas.”

These studies are part of SNAPL’s U.S.-Asia Relations research track.

Racism in Global Context


At George Washington University, the SNAPL team will discuss findings from a project the lab explores as part of another research track, Nationalism and Racism. Recognizing that racism is a global problem with diverse roots and manifestations, this research track examines how nationalism and racism intertwine to create forms of exclusion and marginalization in Asia and provides policy recommendations to advance more inclusive societies in the region and beyond.

At this discussion, to be hosted by the Elliott School of International Affairs’ Sigur Center for Asian Studies, the team will present findings from a study that analyzes how 16 Northeast, Southeast, and South Asian nations discuss and justify their positions on race and racial discrimination. “Our study reveals various forms of racism ‘denial’ rooted in nationalist and religious ideologies, hindering efforts to address ongoing inequalities,” says Nakahara. “Addressing these forms of denial is crucial for promoting critical dialogue on race and racism in Asia and dismantling systems of oppression in the region and elsewhere.”

A Platform for Interdisciplinary Research on Contemporary Asia


SNAPL’s second grant, awarded by Stanford Global Studies, will enable the lab to host throughout the 2024-25 academic year a research workshop series focused on projects from the two research tracks above. Involving scholars and students from Stanford and Asia, the six-part series will foster cross-disciplinary dialogue and share policy-relevant findings grounded in the lab’s research.

The four workshop installments in fall and winter quarters 2024 will be dedicated to the projects discussed above. The spring quarter 2025 workshops will focus on two additional projects: one that examines the discursive construction of U.S. rivals and the respective roles of the media, executive, and legislative branches in this process, and the second that investigates elite articulation of “multiculturalism” in four Asia-Pacific nations.

“These workshops will be invaluable to advancing exchange and partnerships with academics and experts from Stanford and across Asia,” says Shin. “They directly promote SNAPL’s mission to serve as a platform that facilitates trans-Pacific, network-based collaboration."

Visit SNAPL's website for information about the workshops’ schedule and discussion topics.

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New grants to inform U.S. Asia policy and fuel cross-disciplinary research on Asia’s role in the global system of the 21st century.

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In partnership with the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies, the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) at Stanford University presented the second installment of the “Sustainable Democracy Roundtable” series at the SKMS Institute in Icheon, South Korea, where experts diagnosed the current state of democracy, its threats, and possible prescriptions for democratic prosperity. The goal of the roundtable is to create a necessary platform and opportunity for scholars of various disciplines and ranks to identify core issues and propose unique solutions to globally pertinent policy issues. 

The roundtable series is part of SNAPL's Democratic Crisis and Reform research track.

The roundtable was made possible thanks to the generous support and partnership with the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies (KFAS).

This report summarizes the discussions held at the roundtable using a modified version of the Chatham House Rule, only identifying speakers by their country of origin.
 

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