Stanford University

Stanford Scholars Examine Khashoggi's Assassination and the Saudi Crackdown on Dissent

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Jason William Seter
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In a panel discussion titled “The Khashoggi Affair and Saudi Arabia’s War Against Dissent,” Stanford University scholars examined the context for of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and implications of his murder for U.S.-Saudi relations. Organized by the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy (ARD) and moderated by Freeman Spogli Institute and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Larry Diamond, the panel, dated November 6, 2018, featured Janine Zacharia, the Carlos Kelly McClatchy Visiting Lecturer in the Department of Communication, and Hesham Sallam Associate-Director of ARD and Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.

Before introducing the panel, Diamond discussed Jamal Khashoggi’s journalistic contributions and advocacy for freedom in the Middle East. He also strongly asserted that the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman (commonly known as MBS), ordered Khashoggi’s murder in an attempt to stifle media opposition towards his regime. He noted that Khashoggi advocated peaceful political reform that would make Saudi Arabia more prosperous and tolerant. In a brief video filmed during Khashoggi’s visit to Stanford last year, the Saudi journalist provided a measured critique of MBS, remarking that the prince’s leadership was well-intentioned, but too impulsive.

janine zacharia khashoggi Janine Zacharia
Diamond, Zacharia and Sallam had each met and spoken to Jamal Khashoggi. According to Zacharia, he provided an invaluable perspective on Saudi Arabia for journalists, and his death at the hands of MBS’s operatives in Istanbul sets a dangerous new standard for the treatment of journalists and media officials by authoritarian governments.

Zacharia and Sallam criticized the Trump administration’s response to the killing, and the president’s failure to unequivocally condemn Khashoggi’s apparent murder or to hold MBS accountable. Zacharia said she worried the United States, under President Trump, may no longer be willing to come to the aid of American journalists abroad. Sallam observed that Trump’s tepid denunciation of the killing—in which he declared Khashoggi’s disappearance to be “the worst cover-up in history”—will only encourage other Arab autocrats to silence dissenters with greater subtlety and enthusiasm. The only appropriate response, according to Diamond, is for the American government to freeze MBS’s assets and ban him from entering the United States. Otherwise Saudi Arabia will interpret American passivity as a license to commit further human rights abuses without fear of punishment.

hesham at poidum Hesham Sallam
The panelists also framed Khashoggi’s death within the context of Saudi Arabia’s domestic political scene. For many observers, the assassination of a well-known journalist seems at odds with the progressive image of Saudi Arabia that MBS has recently attempted to propagate, specifically through highly publicized reforms and cultural initiatives. Women may now be able to drive, and Saudi Vision 2030 may offer a blueprint for the restructuring of the Saudi economy (and even encourage cross-cultural exchange with the West) but these reforms, Sallam argued, were merely cosmetic. Sallam emphasized that there are still no real checks on MBS’s power, the basic liberties of the Saudis remain severely limited, and the Saudi regime has caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises through its military campaign against Yemen. Diamond prefaced these observations by noting that Saudi Arabia is a hugely populous country and a significant regional power in the Middle East, but if predictions hold true, they will also run out of oil by 2030. Therefore, despite the entrenchment of monarchical power and a façade of social progress, Saudi Arabia is indeed facing an impending crisis of identity and economic uncertainty that will induce extreme action and response on the global stage. Khashoggi’s killing anticipates future turmoil as Saudi Arabia continues to disregard international laws and norms in an earnest—and dangerous—attempt to assert its power domestically and regionally.

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Failed Dream of Political Islam

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Arab Reform and Democracy Program
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Islamism has imitated, or colluded with, the state autocracies it claims to oppose. It has failed to suggest its own answers to economic problems, social justice, education or corruption, writes Hicham Alaoui in Le Monde diplomatique. Click here to read the full article, which is based on research that Alaoui presented at UC Berkeley and CDDRL on October 10 and 11, respectively.

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Global Governance: What to Expect from the G20

Montek Singh Ahluwalia is an economist who trained at Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar. He spent several years at the World Bank before returning to India to serve as the Economic Advisor to the Finance Minister. The Government of India then appointed him to several senior positions, including Secretary of Commerce and Secretary in the Department of Economic Affairs at the Ministry of Finance. In 1998, he was appointed as a Member of the Planning Commission and Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India. In 2001, he became the Director of Independent Evaluation Office at the International Monetary Fund, resigning this position in 2004 to become the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission.

He has written widely about India and the world economy, co-authoring Redistribution with Growth: An Approach to Policy, and editing Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: Issues for Reforming the Global Financial Architecture with Y.V. Reddy and S.S. Tarapore.

The Payne Distinguished Lectureship is named for Frank and Arthur Payne, brothers who gained an appreciation for global problems through their international business operations. This lectureship, hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, brings speakers with an international reputation for leadership and visionary thinking to Stanford to deliver a major public lecture. 

This event is carried out in partnership with the Stanford Center for International Development (SCID).

A public reception will follow the lecture.

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Montek Singh Ahluwalia Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission 2004-2014, Government of India Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission 2004-2014, Government of India
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Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Lecture Series

CDDRL scholars on Obama's Middle East strategy

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Francis Fukuyama and former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry write in the Financial Times, suggesting President Obama's stance on ISIS is "overpromising" and that America should follow lessons from British history and pursue a more sustainable strategy known as "offshore balancing." 

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Rivals for the Throne: The Succession Problem in Saudi Arabia

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Speaker Bio:

Nabil Mouline is a senior researcher in The French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and The School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS). Prior to this, he was a research professor at the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences Po).
He earned a Ph.D. in history from the Paris-Sorbonne University and a Ph.D. in political science from the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences Po).

He is the author, among other works, of The Imaginary Caliphate of Ahmad al-Mansûr: Power and Diplomacy in Morocco in the 16th Century (PUF, Paris, 2009) and The Clerics of Islam: Religious Authority and Political Power in Saudi Arabia (PUF, Paris, 2011). Cambridge University Press and Yale University Press will publish the English translation of these two books in 2014 respectively.

During his residency at Stanford, he will work on a book on the sociological history of Saudi Arabia.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Nabil Mouline

Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Visiting Scholar, ARD
Mouline_HS.jpg
Nabil Mouline is a senior researcher in The French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and The School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS). Prior to this, he was a research professor at the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences Po).
 
He earned a Ph.D. in history from the Paris-Sorbonne University and a Ph.D. in political science from the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences Po).
 
He is the author, among other works, of The Imaginary Caliphate of Ahmad al-Mansûr: Power and Diplomacy in Morocco in the 16th Century (PUF, Paris, 2009) and The Clerics of Islam: Religious Authority and Political Power in Saudi Arabia (PUF, Paris, 2011). Cambridge University Press and Yale University Press will publish the English translation of these two books in 2014 respectively.
 
During his residency at Stanford, he will work on a book on the sociological history of Saudi Arabia.
Nabil Mouline Visiting Scholar, Program on Arab Reform and Democracy Speaker CDDRL
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New scholars from Egypt and Morocco join ARD program this year

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The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy is pleased to announce that Nabil Mouline and Hesham Sallam have joined the program as researchers.

Nabil Mouline will spend his time at CDDRL as a visiting scholar writing a book on the sociological history of Saudi Arabia, while Hesham Sallam, as a CDDRL pre-doctoral fellow, will work on his doctoral thesis on Islamist movements and economic reform in Egypt.

Both scholars will be affiliated with ARD throughout the 2013-14 academic year and will, together with ARD researcher Amr Adly, cooperate on managing different aspects of the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.

For further information on their research, please refer to their biographies on our website.

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Nabil Mouline

Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Visiting Scholar, ARD
Mouline_HS.jpg
Nabil Mouline is a senior researcher in The French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and The School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS). Prior to this, he was a research professor at the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences Po).
 
He earned a Ph.D. in history from the Paris-Sorbonne University and a Ph.D. in political science from the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences Po).
 
He is the author, among other works, of The Imaginary Caliphate of Ahmad al-Mansûr: Power and Diplomacy in Morocco in the 16th Century (PUF, Paris, 2009) and The Clerics of Islam: Religious Authority and Political Power in Saudi Arabia (PUF, Paris, 2011). Cambridge University Press and Yale University Press will publish the English translation of these two books in 2014 respectively.
 
During his residency at Stanford, he will work on a book on the sociological history of Saudi Arabia.

The recruiter’s dilemma: Signalling and rebel recruitment tactics

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Abstract:

How do terrorists recruit? We know much about the profiles and pathways of recruits, but little about the strategies and tactics of recruiters. Such procedures matter because they help determine who joins. I highlight a key determinant of recruiter tactics, namely, the tension between personnel needs and infiltration risks. Drawing on signalling theory, I present an analytical framework that conceptualizes recruitment as a trust game between recruiter and recruit. I argue that the central logic shaping recruiter tactics is the search for cost-discriminating signs of trustworthiness. Due to the context-specificity of signal costs and the room for tactical innovation, optimal recruitment tactics vary in space and time, but the underlying logic is the same for most groups facing a high threat of infiltration. I apply the framework to an al-Qaeda recruitment campaign in early 2000s Saudi Arabia, where it helps explain tactical preferences (why recruiters favoured some recruitment arenas over others) and differential network activation (why recruiters preferred war veterans over radical candidates from other networks). The trust dilemma also accounts for unexpected recruiter choices, such as their reluctance to solicit on the Internet and in mosques, and their preference for recruits who knew poetry or wept during prayer. Thus the signalling framework does not challenge, but provides a useful micro-level complement to, existing theories of recruitment.

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Journal of Peace Research
Authors
Thomas Hegghammer
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