At Stanford, IMF chief discusses promise, risk of global economy
The world’s leading economic policymakers are “on the right track” to ensure a global financial upturn, the chief of the International Monetary Fund told a Stanford audience on Tuesday.
But she warned the recovery will be derailed without the creation of more jobs, better education systems and a way to shrink the gap between rich and poor. And she cautioned against the potential pitfalls of untested exchanges and digital currencies such as Bitcoin.
“We are on the right track, but we need to ask – the right track to where? And the right track to what growth?” said Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director. “Will it be solid, sustainable, and balanced – or will it be fragile, erratic, and unbalanced? To answer this question, we need to look at the patterns of economic activity in the years ahead, and especially the role of technology and innovation in driving us forward.”
Lagarde’s visit to Stanford was co-sponsored by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. In addition to delivering public remarks at FSI’s Bechtel Conference Center, Lagarde met privately with faculty and students during the day.
Just returning from the G-20 summit in Sydney, Lagarde said she is optimistic that the world’s economic leaders are committed to taking the steps that will guard against another large-scale financial collapse. She said the G-20 members agreed to complete a set of financial reforms by the end of this year, a move that will make the “financial sector safer and less likely to cause crisis.”
She said the member countries and their central banks have also agreed to better cooperate and be more transparent in their policymaking.
But she’s worried that unless more sustainable jobs are created, economic disparities will increase. And that, she said, will “harm the pace and sustainability of growth over the long term.”
As technology has helped create a more interconnected world, it is playing an increasing role in the economic landscape. Machines have made our lives easier. Artificial intelligence has led to cars that can drive themselves, robots that can do things in place of humans and smartphones that are more powerful than the first supercomputers.
But so far, there’s been no measure of how new technology has increased productivity.
“We certainly need to keep an eye on this,” she said. “One of the biggest worries is how this technological innovation affects jobs. Put simply: will machines leave workers behind?”
She said technology creates “huge rewards for the extraordinary visionaries at the top, and huge anxieties for workers at the bottom.”
Lagarde said it is up to educators to better prepare the next generation of workers.
“Educational systems are not keeping pace with changing technology and the ever-evolving world of work,” she said. “We need to change what people learn, how people learn, when people learn, and even why people learn. We must go beyond the traditional model of students sitting in classrooms, following instructions and memorizing material. Computers can do that.”
Instead, humans must “outclass computers” in cognitive, interpersonal and sophisticated coding skills, she said.
“Think of creative jobs, caring jobs, jobs that entail great craftsmanship – imagination,” she said. “And given the rate and pace of change, we will need the ability to constantly adapt and change through lifelong learning.”
She called on institutions such as Stanford to play a key role in the process.
“Stanford’s model of education was innovative from the very first day—co-educational, non-denominational, and always practical, focusing on the formation of cultured and useful citizens,” she said. “Stanford was ahead of its time back then. I know that it will continue to be ahead of its time as we venture into the exciting period ahead.”
But that exciting period carries with it uncertainty and risk.
Asked about the role that emerging digital currencies such as Bitcoin could have on the evolving economy, Lagarde was skeptical, calling it a “shaky and wobbly” system.
The currency’s trading website went offline this week, spooking investors and calling into question Bitcoin’s future.
“It’s a glamorous, sexy attractive new system,” she said. “But a monetary system is a public good. It has to be supervised and sufficiently regulated so it is accountable. At this point in time, I think Bitcoin is outside that perimeter of both supervision and regulation.”
Lagarde is the 11th managing director of the IMF, and the first woman to lead the 188-country organization. Since she took over the organization in 2011, she has played a role in the world’s most pressing financial matters, working on solutions to a sluggish global economy and the debt crises in Europe.
The IMF gives both policy advice and financing to countries in difficult economic situations. It also helps developing countries reduce poverty and become more economically stable.
The organization is now poised to assist Ukraine, which is at risk of running out of money to pay its bills in the midst of a political crisis. The country is struggling to cobble together a temporary government in the wake of President Viktor Yanukovych leaving Kiev and being removed from power.
But until a provisional government is formed, the country cannot technically ask for help. When it does, Lagarde said the IMF will send “technical assistance.”
“We are ready to engage,” she said.
Hecker receives AAAS Award for Science Diplomacy
CISAC and FSI Senior Fellow Siegfried Hecker has been awarded the prestigious Science Diplomacy Award from the American Association for the Advancement of Science for his dedication to building bridges through science.
Hecker, director emeritus of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and CISAC co-director from 2007-2012, was honored at the AAAS’s annual conference in Chicago for his “lifetime commitment to using the tools of science to address the challenges of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism and his dedication to building bridges through science during the period following the end of the Cold War."
In nominating Hecker for the 2013 award, Glenn E. Schweitzer, director of the Office for Central Europe and Eurasia at the National Academies, noted that Hecker has been particularly effective in working with government officials and scientific colleagues in Russia, Kazakhstan and North Korea.
"For over two decades, Dr. Hecker has worked on international nuclear security activities and fostered cooperation with the Russian nuclear laboratories to secure and safeguard the vast stockpile of ex-Soviet fissile materials," said AAAS Chief International Officer Vaughan Turekian.
Schweitzer wrote in his nomination that Hecker's activities can be judged on two outcomes: responsible handling of nuclear materials and prevention of dangerous materials from falling into the wrong hands. "On both counts, he scores very high on anyone's ledger," Schweitzer wrote. "In addition, his openness and respect for the views of others have won important friends for the United States around the world."
More details about the award and Hecker's work can be read here.
Please join CISAC in congratulating Hecker for this honor.
McFaul returns to Stanford
When Michael McFaul steps down from his post as Washington’s ambassador to Moscow later this month, he will return to Stanford where he is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and a former director of the institute’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL).
Announcing his decision this week to leave Russia following the Winter Olympics, McFaul wrote on his blog that "it is time to come home."
"We are immensely proud of the service Michael McFaul has rendered in these past five years of steering U.S. policy toward Russia, first at the National Security Council and then for the past two years as U.S. Ambassador to Russia," said CDDRL Director Larry Diamond. "During this time, he has navigated skillfully through some of the toughest challenges in U.S. foreign policy, showing that it is possible for the United States to advance its strategic interests while also standing up for its values of freedom, democracy and an open society."
At Stanford, McFaul will resume his academic activities as a professor in the department of political science, a resident faculty member at CDDRL and the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
"Ambassador McFaul's return is a sterling opportunity for Stanford and FSI," said FSI Director Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. "His unique experience as a diplomat and a leading scholar are enormous assets to our centers and educational programs, and to the entire university."
McFaul has worked in the Obama administration for the past five years, and was tapped as ambassador in 2011. He arrived in Russia with the mandate to reset relations with Moscow, which proved to be challenging in a political climate marked by increasing tensions between the two countries. From the ban on U.S. adoptions to the Edward Snowden affair, McFaul faced many setbacks as he embarked on his political mandate.
Nevertheless, McFaul leaves Moscow citing major gains in improving trade and tourism between the two countries, having worked to secure Russia's membership to the World Trade Organization and a new visa regime. He was also integral to negotiating the historic agreement with Russia to eliminate Syrian chemical weapons.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry praised McFaul's service in a statement released by the U.S. State Department, "From the New START Treaty to securing Russian cooperation on Iran’s nuclear program, to resupplying our troops in Afghanistan and expanding our trade, there’s scarcely an issue in our bilateral agenda that didn’t benefit from Mike’s steady hand and good old fashioned willpower."
Kerry continued to commend McFaul's deep commitment and engagement with Russian civil society on human rights and the independent media, which often invoked tension with the Russian government.
McFaul was a trailblazer in public diplomacy, using the social media platforms Twitter and Facebook to connect to audiences in Russia and beyond. In his blog, McFaul admits to never having sent a tweet before his time as ambassador but now reaches over 60,000 followers through his Twitter account.
"He grasped the importance of social media in an information age, but he also grasped a much more essential truth: that all people everywhere should be able to express themselves and, ultimately, determine how they are governed," said Kerry. "That’s an enduring conviction, and Mike leaves behind an enduring legacy."
How the Cold War Came to Afghanistan, 1945-1952
ABOUT THE TOPIC: No country was as devastated by the Cold War as Afghanistan, yet the historical understanding of how the global conflict came to Kabul remains tentative, generally limited to studies that begin in the late 1970s. Scholars have generally treated the American role in pre-invasion Afghanistan as minimal, or have seamlessly connected Kabul's half-turn toward Moscow in the mid-1950s with the 1979 invasion. Extensive research, however, demonstrates the profound impact Americans had in mid-century Afghanistan. Based on multinational research, this paper will explore how Americans helped to bring the Cold War to the mountain kingdom in the early 1950s. While the Truman administration considered Afghanistan marginal and strategically indefensible, a fateful combination of local initiative, misperception, and ideology helped to add the kingdom to the roster of Cold War battlegrounds, where it would remain until the conflict's end.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER: Robert Rakove is a lecturer for the International Relations Program. He studies the modern history of U.S. foreign relations, paying particular attention to the Cold War in the Third World. He received his PhD in History from the University of Virginia in 2008, and is the author of Kennedy, Johnson, and the Nonaligned World. He is presently at work on a history of the U.S.-Afghan relationship in the decades before the Soviet invasion.
CISAC Conference Room
Why Nuclear Weapons Became Unsustainable: Modernization Theory, International Norms, and the Environmental Roots of the Nuclear Taboo, 1958-1968
ABOUT THE TOPIC: Why was nuclear war deemed unwinnable in the United States? Pace conventional wisdom, the truth was not self-evident. The determination that nuclear weapons were useful in a negative sense (deterring conflict), but not a positive sense (pursuing victory), became axiomatic in the Kennedy Years. Standard accounts explaining how a nuclear taboo arose highlight policymakers’ and thought leaders’ moral revulsion toward great loss of human life. This paper looks at studies of post-attack environments to argue that economic and ecological considerations were of equal if not decisive importance. The core question was how to protect and conserve the natural foundations of an advanced industrial state according to the tenets of modernization theory. Economists and ecologists thus clashed because of incompatible methods and political competition. Their collective inability to deliver concrete recommendations for overcoming an all-out thermonuclear attack reinforced a gathering international norm that the possession and use of nuclear weapons merited legal circumscriptions and prohibitions.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER: Jonathan Hunt is a MacArthur Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at CISAC for 2013-2014. He was a predoctoral fellow at CISAC for 2012-2013, and received his PhD in history from the University of Texas at Austin in December 2013. His dissertation, “Into the Bargain: The Triumph and Tragedy of Nuclear Internationalism during the mid-Cold War, 1958-1970,” examined how decolonization, the meanings of nuclear power, discord in Cold War alliances, and a schism in internationalist thought shaped how a burgeoning international community brought order to the Nuclear Age. Jonathan graduated Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Texas at Austin with a B.A. in Plan II Honors Liberal Arts; History; and Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies. In 2011, he was a residential fellow at the George F. Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and, in 2012, at the Security and Sustainability Program of the International Green Cross in Washington, DC. He was also a Dwight D. Eisenhower/Clifford Roberts Graduate Fellow for 2012-2013. He has published in Passport, Not Even Past, The Huffington Post, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
CISAC Conference Room
Troubled Transition
Kim Jong-il once declared he would transform North Korea into a "great and powerful country" by 2012, apparently believing that nuclear weapons would compel the international community to engage on his terms. With no such prospect in sight, North Korea faces a multitude of intractable problems. Will North Koreans accept his son as their leader, and will he embrace new thinking to solve the country's problems? Why do North Korean leaders resist reform of an economic system that impoverishes the people? Can a country so dependent on outside help continue to defy the international community?
In Troubled Transition, leading international experts examine these dilemmas, offering new insights into how a troubled North Korea may evolve in light of the ways other command economies and totalitarian states--from the Soviet Union and East Germany to Vietnam and China--have transitioned.
The publication of Troubled Transition was made possible by the generosity of the Koret Foundation of San Francisco, CA.
Desk, examination, or review copies can be requested through Stanford University Press.
North Korea's Politics, Economy and External Relations