As the world reacts to the death of Kim Jong Il, Stanford’s Gi-Wook Shin talks about the transition of power in North Korea. He discusses what’s in store for relations between Pyongyang and Washington, and what to expect of what is perhaps Kim’s most troubling legacy: his nuclear weapons program.

Shin is a senior fellow at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and director of FSI's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and its Korean Studies Program. The sociology professor is also the Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Chair of Korean Studies.

Kim Jong Il’s son, Jong Un, is set to take over North Korea’s leadership. What do we know about him, and what can we expect from his leadership?

Unlike his father, who had been groomed as a successor for many years, Kim Jong Un was designated as a successor only recently. As a result, it is questionable whether he is ready to take over the failing regime. Kim Jong Il’s death was not entirely unexpected, but still came sooner than many experts had thought.

Jong Un is only 28 years old without much experience in politics and governance and has not yet been able to consolidate his power. Although his status as a new leader is not likely to be challenged, it won’t be easy at all to establish himself as a strong leader like his father, let alone like his grandfather, Kim Il Song. 

In the years to come, his in-laws—such as Jang Seong Taek—will play an important role behind Kim. The military will also be a key player in the post-Kim Jong Il era.

You were in South Korea when Kim Jong Il died. What was the mood and reaction to the news?

People were taken by surprise but there was no panic. The government is handling the situation well, while many citizens wonder what will happen to North Korea with the passing of Kim Jong Il.

How can the United States deal with this transition in power? Will there be any change in relations between Washington and Pyongyang?

Representatives of North Korea and the U.S. recently met in Beijing to discuss food aid and nuclear issues. There was some optimism with the prospect to improve the bilateral relations. However, any direct talks between the two countries to discuss major issues will be on hold for a while as the northern regime mourns the loss of its leader and focuses on internal stability. The U.S. should pay keen attention to the transitional process and needs to support a smooth transition in power. That should entail close collaboration with neighboring countries, especially South Korea and China. And it should include providing food aid that the U.S. has been considering.

How does Kim Jong Il's death fit in with other key political transitions happening throughout the world in the coming year?

There is a great deal of uncertainty on the Korean peninsula. Besides this transition in power in North Korea, there will also be power transitions in China and Russia next year. And there will also be presidential elections in the U.S., South Korea, and Taiwan in 2012. Japan may have a new prime minister too, adding more uncertainty to the situation. 

On the other hand, uncertainty does not necessarily mean a crisis—it is unlikely that the North will provoke tensions on the peninsula. The coming year is a very important one for North Korea as it celebrates itself as a “mighty, prosperous nation.” But it faces many challenges.

I don’t expect any significant change in inter-Korean relations until perhaps 2013, when South Korea elects a new administration and North Korea is stabilized with a new political leadership. 

What does Kim Jong Il’s death mean for North Korea’s nuclear program?

North Korea has nuclear weapons and an enriched uranium program that could produce nuclear bombs. Very few expect the North to give up its nuclear bombs. Added uncertainty over the transition of power and heightened concern about regime survival will only increase the value that North Korea sees in possessing nuclear weapons. 

When Siyan Yi was a medical student in Cambodia 12 years ago, he volunteered with a collaborative government-NGO project to provide young women at high risk for HIV/AIDS—the victims of sexual exploitation—with housing, vocational training, medical care, and psychological support. Cambodia at that time had one of Asia’s highest HIV-infection rates.

That rate has dropped by half, thanks to government policy measures, international NGO support, and the efforts of medical professionals like Yi. Cambodia’s government must now find ways to curb HIV infection in new segments of the population, says Yi, who is the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s inaugural Developing Asia Health Policy Fellow. Sustaining funding for the long-term care of HIV-infected individuals also poses a future challenge, he explains, and new health issues associated with development are beginning to crop up.

Cambodia’s first HIV case was detected in 1991 in a blood donor, and the rate of HIV/AIDS increased dramatically throughout the decade. HIV/AIDS hit Thailand slightly earlier, and was spread through the commercial sex trade. The epidemic reached an even greater scale there than it ever did in Cambodia.

Thailand’s government struck back with a 100-percent condom use promotion program, which Cambodia successfully adopted in the late 1990s. Brothels are illegal in Cambodia, but the government worked cooperatively with owners to provide basic HIV/AIDS education to sex workers. These efforts significantly reduced the transmission of HIV.

Since then, a more indirect form of prostitution has sprung up in places such as karaoke halls, massage parlors, restaurants, and even in factories. HIV prevalence remains high among some sentinel groups such as female sex workers, beer promoters, men who have sex with men (MSM), injected-drug users, and migrant workers.

Yi advocates that the government expand the scope of its HIV/AIDS prevention programs to encompass these new at-risk populations. He even suggests that the government consider creating a system of licensed brothels such as previously existed in Hong Kong and Taiwan. “It would provide the government with an easier means of controlling prostitution, and allow it to work with brothel owners to control HIV-infection rates,” states Yi.

HIV increases the risk of contracting or developing symptoms of tuberculosis; a large proportion of Cambodia’s population carries the disease but shows no signs of it. Tuberculosis went largely undetected during the decades of the Khmer Rouge regime, but with the advent of HIV/AIDS it has become more prevalent. Yi has been involved in government-NGO projects to provide tuberculosis screening for HIV patients, including a tuberculosis control project with the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

Tuberculosis screening and HIV treatment advances may greatly prolong the life—and even improve the health—of patients. But heartening as Cambodia’s success against HIV/AIDS has proven in the past decade, the government largely bears the responsibility for funding the expensive treatment and care for the low-income individuals most affected by it. A critical portion of government funding for its HIV/AIDS prevention programs comes from external organizations. 

“I think that the main issue for the government of Cambodia in the battle against HIV and AIDS is financial sustainability,” says Yi, who worries that donor agencies will withdraw support as the HIV-infection rate continues to improve. Prevention is less expensive, he explains, but long-term care is costly to a developing country such as Cambodia.

Yi, however, feels less concerned now about the HIV/AIDS epidemic and speaks hopefully of working to help the government find ways to measure and treat non-communicable diseases associated with economic development, such as diabetes and hypertension. While he is at Stanford, he will collaborate with Asia Health Policy Program researchers to move his work toward solving Cambodia’s new health challenges.

Program to enhance global reach and innovation research at business school

We are thrilled to welcome SPRIE, a catalyst for cutting-edge knowledge in this space, and a natural fit for us.
- Garth Saloner, Dean of the Stanford Graduate School of Business

STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS — The Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship has joined the Graduate School of Business, where it will expand and enhance the depth and reach of global content for the school's academic programs and research.

The Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) is focused on understanding the development and practice of innovation and entrepreneurship around the world. Current research focuses on the dynamics and sustainability of Silicon Valley and high-technology areas across Europe and Asia, including those in mainland China, Taiwan, Japan, India, Korea, and their collaboration and competition in the evolving global innovation network. Specific projects focus on "Silicon Valley Transforming," the rise and implications of China's internet industry ("China 2.0"), Japanese entrepreneurship ("STAJE"), and clean energy and urbanization ("Smart Green Cities").

SPRIE's core activities include global interdisciplinary research, seminars, and conferences, as well as publications and briefings for industry and government leaders. Upcoming events this month at Stanford include a panel discussion, "Re-examining the State of Japanese Entrepreneurship," on Sept. 21 and "China 2.0: Transforming Media and Commerce in China," SPRIE's third in a series of highly successful forums. Keynotes for "China 2.0" on Sept. 30 will include investors, entrepreneurs, and founders or CEOs of billion-dollar Chinese internet firms, including Jack Ma of Alibaba and Joe Chen, MBA '99, of RenRen.

"Innovation and entrepreneurship are hallmarks of the GSB experience," said Garth Saloner, dean of the Stanford Graduate School of Business. "We are thrilled to welcome SPRIE, a catalyst for cutting-edge knowledge in this space, and a natural fit for us. SPRIE complements and augments many of our existing efforts, including the Center for Entrepreneurial Studies and the Center for Global Business and the Economy."

Previously housed at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, SPRIE is led by faculty directors William F. Miller and Henry S. Rowen, as well as Associate Director Marguerite Gong Hancock. Miller, the former provost of Stanford University and the Herbert Hoover Professor of Public and Private Management, Emeritus, at the business school, is also a professor emeritus of computer science at the engineering school. He was CEO of SRI International, where he established a spin-out and commercialization program. Rowen is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Edward P. Rust Professor of Public Policy and Management, Emeritus, at the business school, as well as former president of the RAND Corporation. He is an expert on international security, economic development, and high-tech industries in the United States and Asia.

Hancock leads research initiatives, conferences, and publications on topics ranging from "China 2.0: The Rise of a Digital Superpower" to "Smart Green Cities." She is coeditor of books published by Stanford University Press: The Silicon Valley Edge (2000), Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (2006), and Greater China's Quest for Innovation (2008). Hancock also codirects SPRIE executive and policymaker training programs on leading innovation and entrepreneurial regions in the global economy.

"We are very pleased to join the Graduate School of Business and look forward to collaborating on international and interdisciplinary research and conferences relevant to business students, executives, and government leaders from around the world who are focused on leading innovation and creating value," said Miller.

SPRIE research focuses on the nexus of innovation and entrepreneurship in high-technology clusters, through questions such as:

• What factors enable innovative and entrepreneurial regions to advance and be sustained? What divergent models and strategies are evident in emerging regions?
• Why have some regions lagged, despite strong assets such as skilled workers or capital investments? What obstacles hinder a region's development?
• How do the flows of ideas, technology, people, and capital define new global linkages? How do these shape the emerging global high-technology system?
• With the rise of China, India, and other high-technology powerhouses, what new patterns of interaction are emerging among major players? How can companies and governments best respond to new critical challenges and opportunities?

For more information on research, executive programs, or events at SPRIE, contact Yan Mei at yanmei@stanford.edu or visit http://sprie.gsb.stanford.edu.

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For More Information Contact: Barbara Buell, Director of Communications, Stanford Graduate School of Business at buell_barbara@gsb.stanford.edu or 650-723-1771.

For Comment: Marguerite Hancock, Associate Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the Graduate School of Business at mhancock@stanford.edu or 650-723-4588.