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After an intensive selection process, the Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), Stanford Institute for International Studies at Stanford University has selected the first class of its APARC Fellowships for pre-doctoral scholars. Kaoru Shimizu and Joo-Youn Jung will be in residence during the 2004-2005 academic year. They will be named Takahashi Fellows in honor of Takahashi family whose generous gift made this fellowship possible.

Kaoru (Kay) Shimizu is a Ph.D. candidate in the department of political science. Her dissertation topic is "The Political Dynamics of Capitalism: Barriers to Reform in Japan and China" in which she adopts a political economy approach to compare the causes and resolution of non-performing loans in China and Japan.

Joo-Youn Jung is a Ph.D. candidate in the department of political science. In her dissertation she will be examining how and why the powerful bureaucratic states of China, South Korea, and Japan have changed in response to the powerful forces of financial crisis, non-performing loans, and banking reform and what impact these changes have had on efforts to implement urgently needed policy changes.

APARC looks forward to their joining us in the fall.

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San Francisco -- Offshoring is just one of many global forces impacting job creation and destruction in the Bay Area and cannot be viewed in isolation from the key trends enabling it, such as globalization, technology-driven improvements in productivity and business disintermediation. Efforts to prevent offshoring will not be successful and are likely to come at considerable economic cost, according to a new study released today.

Sponsored by Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network, the Bay Area Economic Forum and the Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE), with research and project support from global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney, the study analyzed global trends, regional capabilities and the Bay Area job market.

Findings from the study, the first regionally focused on the Bay Area, were based on 120 interviews, analysis of 9,000 job listings and other primary and secondary research.

The Bay Area already has more experience with globalization and offshoring than other parts of the U.S., the study reports. Bay Area manufacturers earn almost 60 percent of their revenues in overseas markets. Analysis done as part of the study revealed 94 percent of companies in the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing and software clusters - two driving sectors in the Bay Area in terms of employment and payroll contribution - are already using offshore resources.

This does not mean all jobs are going offshore. The study also found one-in-four job postings for large companies in those sectors during April 2004 was for positions in the Bay Area.

"The research makes clear that global trends will force continued creation and destruction of jobs in the Bay Area. These trends can't be reversed. Policies and investment should be directed toward helping the region strengthen its core capabilities to compete effectively on a national and global basis" said Sean Randolph, President & CEO of the Bay Area Economic Forum.

The study calls for policymakers to maintain strong support for basic research, invest in education to ensure a competitive local workforce and to address vulnerabilities in the regional business environment including housing, transportation and business regulations that hinder local job creation. Business leaders need to support transition programs and consider investment in local employee development to meet their future job needs.

The study found the Bay Area is losing ground to other regions in the U.S. and overseas in three competitive capabilities: mass production, back-office (transactional) operations and product and process enhancement. The competitive erosion in the latter is new. It appears that the Bay Area is rapidly losing out to other regions in occupations associated with engineering focused on cost reduction, fine-tuning processes and expanding product features. These engineering jobs, along with manufacturing and administration-related occupations, are expected to decline as the skills required for those functions are sourced more cost effectively in other regions of the United States and abroad.

The study also identified five competitive capabilities that investors and business leaders believe are key strengths of the Bay Area. In addition to three capabilities traditionally linked to the region (entrepreneurship/new business creation, research in advanced technologies and bringing new concepts to market), the analysis pointed to two other competitive capabilities not always in the spotlight:

  • Cross-disciplinary research - coordinating and integrating advanced learning across industries and scientific disciplines.
  • Global integrated management - managing and coordinating globally distributed business functions and networks.

Jobs aligned with these five regional strengths, such as high-level research, strategic marketing and global business and headquarter management activities, are expected to experience solid growth.

"The findings confirm that the region should continue to attract talent and foster innovation, start-up activity and job creation, as technology companies are launched and commercialized," said Russell Hancock, President and CEO of Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network.

The Bay Area's strengths make the region a leader in job creation in early stages of the business lifecycle, but its weaknesses lead to job growth outside the region in the later stages. As a result, the study says, the Bay Area will continue to incubate and develop new businesses, a process that has historically been the core growth engine for the local job market.

"Companies founded in the Bay Area will typically maintain the majority of their workforce in the region until their first products or services gain market traction and key business processes stabilize," said John Ciacchella, Vice President with A.T. Kearney. "However, as these companies expand and mature, many of the new jobs that stay local will focus on management of expanding business operations that are outsourced, offshored and distributed to other regions."

The Bay Area also is well positioned in the industries likely to spawn new technology

start-ups, according to the study's job market analysis and interviews. Beyond its leading role in information technology, the Bay Area has the highest concentration of biotechnology firms in the country and more nanotechnology firms than all countries except Germany.

"How jobs in a region are affected by global trends depends on the competitiveness of the region's capabilities," said Marguerite Gong Hancock, Associate Director of SPRIE. "Despite a rise in the capabilities of other entrepreneurial regions globally, the Bay Area continues to lead in many of the capabilities considered most necessary for innovation and new business creation"

The study findings will be presented at a public event on Thursday, July 15, at Stanford University, where a panel of business and community leaders will discuss the report's findings and implications and take questions from the audience. The panel will be moderated by Paul Laudicina, managing director of A.T. Kearney's Global Business Policy Council, and includes:

  • Edward Barnholt (Chairman, President & CEO, Agilent Technologies)
  • William T. Coleman (Founder, Chairman & CEO, Cassatt Corporation, and Vice Chairman, Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group)
  • Anula K. Jayasuriya (Venture Partner, ATP Capital LP)
  • William F. Miller (Professor Emeritus, Stanford Graduate School of Business)
  • The Honorable Joe Nation, California State Assembly

BAY AREA ECONOMIC FORUM
Bay Area Economic Forum (www.bayeconfor.org) is a public-private partnership of senior business, government, university, labor and community leaders, develops and implements projects that: support the vitality and competitiveness of the regional economy, and enhance the quality of life of the regions residents. Sponsored by the Bay Area Council a business organization of more than 250 CEOs and major employers, and the Association of Bay Area Governments, representing the region's 101 cities and nine counties, the Bay Area Economic Forum provides a shared platform for leaders to act on key issues affecting the regional economy.

JOINT VENTURE: SILICON VALLEY NETWORK
Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network (www.jointventure.org) is a nonprofit organization that provides analysis and action on issues affecting the economy and quality of life in Silicon Valley. The organization brings together new and established leaders from business, labor, government, education, non-profits, and the broader community to build a sustainable region that is poised for competition in the global economy.

STANFORD PROJECT ON REGIONS OF INNOVATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP
The Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (http://sprie.stanford.edu), or SPRIE, is dedicated to the understanding and practice of the nexus of innovation and entrepreneurship in the leading regions around the world. Current research focuses on Silicon Valley and high technology regions in 6 countries in Asia: People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore and India. SPRIE fulfills its mission through interdisciplinary and international collaborative research, seminars and conferences, publications and briefings for industry and government leaders.

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Wednesday, January 14

Welcoming Remarks

2:00 Michael Armacost, Shorenstein APARC

Security Dimension of the Alliances

2:10-4:00

Chair: Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

The Changes in the US's Strategic Doctrine

Kurt Campbell, Senior Vice President & Director, International Security Program, Center for Security and International Studies

What key elements of change in American strategic doctrine have been introduced by the Bush Administration? What implications do they have for US alliances in Northeast Asia?

The China Dimension

Michael Lampton, Director, China Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University

What implications would improved Sino-US relations have on America's alliances in Asia?

Jing Huang, Associate Professor of Political Science, Utah State University

How have Chinese attitudes and policies toward America's Northeast Asian alliances changed over the past five years or so? What accounts for those changes? What implications have they for the future of these alliances?

Discussant: William Perry, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor, School of Engineering, Stanford University and the 19th Secretary of Defense for the United States

4:30-6:00 The Future of America's Alliances in Northeast Asia

Admiral Thomas Fargo, Commander, US Pacific Command

Keynote and Public Address

Introduction to be made by William Perry

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, first floor

Thursday, January 15

Changing View of the Regional Security Environment and the Alliances

8:00-10:15

Chair: Michael Armacost, Shorenstein APARC

The Japanese Government's Views on the Alliance

Kuriyama Takakazu, Ambassador, retired

How have the views of the Japanese government changed in recent years with respect to the regional security environment and the mission and strategic focus of the US-Japan alliance? How have they changed with respect to the security responsibilities? Should Japan be prepared to shoulder on these responsibilities on its own outside the contours of the alliance?

The View of the Republic of Korea's Government of the Alliance

Kim Won-soo, Visiting Scholar, Shorenstein APARC & former Secretary to the President of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Office of the President, Republic of Korea

How have South Korean government perception and policies changed in recent years vis-à-vis the regional security environment and the mission and strategic focus of the US-ROK alliance? How have they changed with respect to the security responsibilities that South Korea is expected to shoulder on its own, outside the contours of the alliance?

The US Government's Views on the US-Japan Alliance

Rust Deming, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, National Defense University & Ambassador, retired

How have American government perceptions and policies changed in recent years vis-à-vis the mission and strategic focus of the US-Japan alliance?

The US Government's View on the U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance

Victor Cha, D.S. Song Associate Professor of Government and Asian Studies, Georgetown University

How have American government perceptions and policies changed in recent years vis-à-vis the mission and strategic focus of the US-Japan alliance?

Discussant: Christopher LaFleur, Cyrus Vance Fellow in Diplomatic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

The Changing Domestic Politics of the Alliance

10:30-12:15

Chair: Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC

Japanese Domestic Views of the Alliance

Nakanishi Hiroshi, Professor, Graduate School of Law, Kyoto University

Since the mid-1990s, what noteworthy changes have surfaced in domestic support or opposition to the US-Japan alliance? What changes in support or opposition to the bilateral cooperation on security issues in Asia and elsewhere?

The Changes in South Korean Domestic Views of the Alliance

Lee Chung-min, Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University

How have domestic political dynamics and public attitudes toward the US-ROK alliance and bilateral cooperation on security issues changed in recent years? What accounts for those changes? What implications do they have for US alliances in Northeast Asia?

American Domestic Views of the US-Republic of Korea Alliance

Donald Gregg, President, The Korea Society

How have American public attitudes (as reflected in public opinion polls, press reporting, and Congressional actions) evolved toward the US-ROK alliance and bilateral defense cooperation in recent years? What accounts for these changes? What are their implications for the future of the alliance?

Discussant: Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Adjustments in the Operational Arrangement for Defense Cooperation

1:30-3:45

Chair & Discussant: Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow Emeritus, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Japanese Adjustments in US-Japan Defense Cooperation

Yamaguchi Noboru, Major General, Japan Ground Self Defense Force

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-Japan defense cooperation? What further changes would the Japanese Government like to promote?

US-Japan Defense Cooperation

Ralph Cossa, President, Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-Japan defense cooperation? What additional changes is the Bush Administration likely to promote?

US-Republic of Korea Defense Cooperation

William Drennan, Deputy Director, United States Institute of Peace

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-Japan defense cooperation? What additional changes is the Bush Administration likely to promote?

US-Republic of Korea Defense Cooperation

Kim Jae chang, General, Joint Korea-US Command, (retired) and Co-Chairman, Council on ROK-US Security Studies

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-ROK defense cooperation? What further changes would the Republic of Korea like to promote?

Where Do We Go From Here? Conclusions

4:00-5:00

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow & Ambassador, retired

Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow Emeritus, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Robert Scalapino, Robson Research Professor of Government, Emeritus, University of California, Berkeley

Oksenberg Conference Room

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APARC fellow Robert Madsen provides comment for a foreign affairs column, headlined "Bush finally accepts the reality that North Korea talks are needed," published June 27 in the San Jose Mercury News. Madsen summarizes North Korea's current options following the latest round of six-party talks in Beijing, and concludes that the Bush administration's recent softening of approach is "the right policy, two years late."
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In the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis and the Chinese accession to the WTO, the East Asian countries that have up until now been ambivalent towards regional trade integration have recently begun actively to pursue regional and bilateral trade agreements. The recent start of negotiations between Korea and Japan on a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) has spurred much debate among many different groups and financial sectors in Korea. However, the contention of the various interest groups is not necessarily based on an economic rationale. Professor Bark will present the political issues that may emerge during the negotiation of the Korea-Japan FTA and some policy recommendations to reduce the negative effects of the FTA.

Taeho Bark is a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University. From 1998 he has served as commissioner of the Korea Trade Commission. He has also served as Chair of the Investment Expert Group of APEC, Secretary for Economic Affairs, Office of the President, ROK, and as a consultant at the World Bank.

Philippines Conference Room

Taeho Bark Professor, Graduate School of International Studies Seoul National University
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Paul Neureiter has been intimately involved in the China semiconductor Value Added Tax case that was recently filed with the WTO. He was a key player in resolving the recent Chinese wireless LAN encryption standard, and he is deeply involved in intellectual property issues. Prior to his work at USTR, he served in the U.S. State Department in a variety of posts, including as an Economic Officer in the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and in the office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs in Washington, DC.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Paul Neureiter Director for China Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR)
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Dr. Sáez's recent paper offers a new perspective on the relationship between ex ante barriers to entry and ex post second-generation reforms. Building upon theoretical insights from the literature on new entry, the paper will show why some types of barriers to entry exist in transitional economies. The paper will then show how market segmentation imposes structural barriers to entry will likely affect the level of political opposition that builds during the implementation of second generation reforms. In order to provide empirical support for this theoretical construct, the paper will specifically highlight the experience of financial services reform in India in order to develop an argument about the existing challenges and likely success of second-generation reforms that stemmed from initial barriers to entry.

Lawrence Sáez is a senior associate member at St. Antony's College, Oxford and he teaches international politics at the School of Oriental and Asian Studies in London. Prior to living in England, Dr. Sáez was an assistant research political scientist at the Institute of East Asian Studies and visiting scholar at the Center for South Asia Studies, University of California, Berkeley. He was also the associate editor for South Asia at Asian Survey. He holds a B.A. in political science from the University of California, Berkeley; an M.A.L.D. in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy; and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Chicago.

His research is focused around comparative political economy and fiscal federalism in developing countries. He is currently working on trying to understand how globalization has affected subnational economic growth and the provision of public goods in emerging markets. He is the author of Banking Reform in India and China (Palgrave MacMillan 2004).

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Lawrence Sáez Visiting Fellow, Center for International Studies Speaker London School of Economics
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