PESD invited to World Bank meeting on CDM reform
The Stanford Humanities Center and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) are pleased to announce that four international scholars have been chosen to come to Stanford in 2010-11 as part of a jointly sponsored international program entering its second year. Nominated by Stanford departments and research centers, the international scholars will be on campus for four-week residencies. They will have offices at the Humanities Center and will be affiliated with their nominating unit, the Humanities Center, and FSI.
A major purpose of the residencies is to bring high-profile international scholars into the intellectual life of the university, targeting scholars whose research and writing engage with the missions of both the Humanities Center and FSI.
The following four scholars have been selected for the upcoming academic year.
While at Stanford, the scholars will offer informal seminars and public lectures and will also be available for consultations with interested faculty and students. For additional information, please contact Marie-Pierre Ulloa, mpulloa@stanford.edu.
This audacious and illuminating memoir by Richard Baum, a senior China scholar and sometime policy advisor, reflects on forty years of learning about and interacting with the People's Republic of China, from the height of Maoism during the author's UC Berkeley student days in the volatile 1960s through globalization. Anecdotes from Baum's professional life illustrate the alternately peculiar, frustrating, fascinating, and risky activity of China watching - the process by which outsiders gather and decipher official and unofficial information to figure out what's really going on behind China's veil of political secrecy and propaganda. Baum writes entertainingly, telling his narrative with witty stories about people, places, and eras.
Richard Baum is distinguished professor of political science at UCLA and director emeritus of the UCLA Center for Chinese Studies. He is the author of Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping (Princeton U. Press) and the founder and list manager of Chinapol, an
electronic forum serving the international China-watching community. His 48-lecture video course, "The Fall and Rise of China," produced for The Teaching Company's Great Courses series, was released last month.
Philippines Conference Room
Read below for a summary of the proposed study.
A key policy question in developing countries, including China, is how to balance investments between vocational and general education in a way that supports economic growth and reduces social inequality. There is no definitive study in any developing country on the returns to vocational education and training (VET). In the absence of information on how VET might affect the earnings of workers, it is unclear if recent efforts of the Chinese government to expand VET are sound. If the returns are negligible, the government might consider slowing the expansion or improving the quality of VET.
Additionally, it is estimated that only about 40% of the students that graduate from junior high school in poor, rural areas continue with their studies; the rest enter the unskilled labour force. Why are these rates so low? Surprisingly, little is known about the factors that keep students out of school. There is no systematic study of what is working in VET and what is not. Despite the rapid expansion of VET, China has set up few mechanisms to evaluate the quality of VET programs.
The goal of this project is to help the Chinese government evaluate the effectiveness of the expansion of VET. It aims to provide empirical evidence on the returns to VET; the factors that might keep disadvantaged students from receiving quality schooling; and measure the quality and cost-effectiveness of VET programs.
This study will estimate the returns from VET versus general schooling using various “quasi-experimental” methods. It will follow a randomized control trial design and randomly assign junior high students to programmes that provide vouchers for VET schooling, vouchers for academic schooling, and academic counselling for students to become better informed about their schooling/employment options. The project will assess if students work harder, perform better and matriculate to academic high school and VET at higher rates when they have sufficient financial aid and counselling. Finally, it will also develop an Entrance/Exit Examination that can be used by principals of VET institutions and local officials in charge of VET to assess the quality of their programs. The findings of these quality studies of VET will be useful in influencing policy on one of China’s most debated education issues.
In mid April, FSI convened a special conference on Technology, Governance, and Global Development, to examine how technical innovation solves, or fails to solve, the problems of chronic global underdevelopment. Experts from business, medicine, philanthropy, academia, government and non-governmental organizations, along with young Stanford alumni, addressed technology's ability to help secure gains in health, economic development, agricultural innovation, food security, and human development.
With a wealth of expertise and on-the-ground experience, panelists tackled central issues and engaged in spirited debate, animated by moderator Philip Taubman. "The Promise of Information and Communications Technology" examined whether technology can transform lives of individuals, even in poorly governed countries, finding encouraging evidence in technology-based medical and health services and novel approaches to economic development, including sharing vital information and banking via mobile phones.
A panel of young Stanford alumni discussed their entrepreneurial efforts that led to the development of a low-cost, lifesaving incubator for low birth weight babies, the FACE AIDS program begun at Stanford that now has 20 chapters and has contributed some $2 million for treatment of people with AIDS in Africa, a new Global Health Corps to train health care workers, and other innovations to save lives in underserved areas.
Condoleezza Rice,
former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, gave the lunchtime
keynote with a focus on why democracies are more effective and ultimately more
efficient in delivering economic development. Democracies are better at
protection of rule of law and property rights, she noted. Democracies are less
corrupt, more in touch with their people, more stable, and better able to
deliver the benefits of human capital development, health, and education to
their population as a whole.
A third panel on "Governance, Innovation, and Service Delivery" addressed how
innovative institutions and technologies could overcome poor governance and
deliver needed services in underdeveloped regions. "Despite extraordinary
growth in our technical capacity to prevent and treat child illness and death, we
are seeing stagnation or a rise in mortality rates of children under five in
some areas," said pediatrician Paul Wise. "This reflects gross failures in
delivering highly efficacious health interventions." Some 9 million children
still die each year, and 65 percent of child deaths in unstable areas are
preventable, he noted. Wise has launched a new program to improve child health
in areas of unstable governance through new integrated technical and political
strategies.
A fourth session on "Creative Markets for Technical Innovation" honed in on the institutions, innovations, and incentives needed to stimulate development of products and services that address the needs of the poor. Panelists focused on pharmaceuticals, agricultural innovation, use of mobile technologies to share information on best practices, improved food security through innovative technology - such as solar-powered irrigation to expand growing seasons, crops, and incomes, and the development of human capital in China through rigorous evaluation, field trials, and nutritional intervention.
Among the experts addressing these vital issues were Google.org's Megan Smith, BP Solar's Reyad Fezzani, Center for Global Development President Nancy Birdsall, Gates Foundation Director of Agricultural Development Sam Dryden, Gilead Science's Clifford Samuel, dynamic Stanford alumni Nava Ashraf ‘97, Jared Cohen ‘04, Jane Chen ‘08, and Jonny Dorsey ‘07, and FSI's Coit D. Blacker, Joshua Cohen, Stephen D. Krasner, Paul H. Wise, Rosamond L. Naylor, and Scott Rozelle.
FSI Payne Lecturer Bill Gates, Co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Chairman, Microsoft, gave an address on "Giving Back: Finding the Best Way to Make a Difference." He urged students to become involved in the central issues of global health—including the need to reduce child mortality through more vaccines and better delivery systems—and education, saying we need to find out "what works" and use the Internet to share lessons learned globally.
"We need to shift talent toward bigger needs," Gates said, urging students to provide the passion and ideas to drive us forward in health, education, and energy. To make a difference, Gates advised, "Get your hands dirty, do the hard work in the actual environment, early in your career." Telling students that he is looking for "great ideas," he challenged them to post answers on the Gates Foundation Facebook wall to three questions: What problems are you working on? What draws you in? How will you draw other people in to work on solutions to the world's great challenges.
Although China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China’s emissions on a per capita basis are significantly lower than those of the U.S.: in 2005, per capita emissions in China were 5.5 metric tons—much less than the U.S. (23.5 metric tons per capita), and also lower than the world average of 7.03 metric tons. China’s total GHG emissions were 7,234.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2005, 15.4 percent of which came from the agricultural sector. By comparison, total U.S. emissions were 6,931.4 million tCO2e, 6.4 percent of which were from agriculture. Within China’s agriculture sector, 54.5 percent of emissions come from nitrous oxide, and 45.5 percent come from methane, which is the opposite of the composition of global GHG emissions from agriculture.
Economic studies show that climate change will affect not only agricultural production, but also agricultural prices, trade and food self-sufficiency. The research presented here indicates that producer responses to these climate- induced shocks will lessen the impacts of climate change on agricultural production compared to the effects predicted by many natural scientists. This study projects the impacts of climate change on China’s agricultural sector under the A2 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which assumes a heterogeneous world with continuous population growth and regionally-oriented economic growth. Depending on the assumptions used related to CO2 fertilization, in 2030 the projected impacts of climate change on grain production range from -4 percent to +6 percent, and the effects on crop prices range from -12 percent to +18 percent. The change in relative prices in domestic and international markets will in turn impact trade flows of all commodities. The magnitude of the impact on grain trade in China will equal about 2 to 3 percent of domestic consumption. According to our analysis, trade can and should be used to help China mitigate the impacts of climate change; however, the overall impact on China’s grain self-sufficiency is moderate because the changes in trade account for only a small share of China’s total demand.
The effect of climate change on rural incomes in China is complicated. The analysis shows that the average impact of higher temperatures on crop net revenue is negative, but this can be partially offset by income gains resulting from an expected increase in precipitation. Moreover, the effects of climate change on farmers will vary depending on the production methods used. Rain-fed farmers will be more vulnerable to temperature increases than irrigated farmers, and the impact of climate change on crop net revenue varies by season and by region.
In recent years, China has made tangible progress on the implementation of adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Efforts have been made to increase public investment in climate change research, and special funding has been allocated to adaptation issues. An experiment with insurance policies and increased public investment in research are just two examples of climate adaptation measures. Beyond government initiatives, farmers have implemented their own adaptation strategies, such as changing cropping patterns, increasing investment in irrigation infrastructure, using water saving technologies and planting new crop varieties to increase resistance to climatic shocks.
China faces several challenges, however, as it seeks to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. Fertilizers are a major component of nitrous oxide emissions, and recent studies indicate that overuse of fertilizer has become a significant contributor to water pollution. Application rates in China are well above world averages for many crops; fields are so saturated with fertilizer that nutrients are lost because crops cannot absorb any more. Changing fertilizer application practices will be no easy task. Many farmers also work outside of agriculture to supplement their income and opt for current methods because they are less time intensive.
In addition, the expansion of irrigated cropland has contributed to the depletion of China’s water table and rivers, particularly in areas of northern China. Water scarcity is increasing and will constrain climate change mitigation strategies for some farmers. One of the main policy/research issues—as well as challenges for farm households—will be to determine how to increase water use efficiency.
Despite the sizeable amount of greenhouse gases emitted by and the environmental impact of China’s agriculture sector, it also offers important and efficient mitigation opportunities. To combat low fertilizer use efficiency in China, the government in recent years has begun promoting technology aimed at calibrating fertilizer dosages according to the characteristics of soil. In addition, conservation tillage (CT) has been considered as a potential way to create carbon sinks. Over the last decade, China’s government has promoted the adoption of CT and established demonstration pilot projects in more than 10 provinces. Finally, extending intermittent irrigation and adopting new seed varieties for paddy fields are also strategies that have been supported and promoted as part of the effort to reduce GHG emissions.
The symposium will bring together scholars and current and former government officials from Taiwan, China, and US to take stock of cross-strait relations over the past decade. It will also assess the future development of cross-strait interactions from different angles including economic, political, and security perspectives.
Friday, May 28, 2010 |
|
|
8:00 am to 8:30 am |
Registration & Reception |
|
8:30 am to 8:40 am |
Introduction Larry Diamond, Director of CDDRL; Senior Fellow of Hoover Institution and FSI, Stanford University |
|
8:40 am to 10:15 am |
Session I: What Can We Learn from History: Looking Back on the Evolution of U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations Chair: Hung-mao Tien, President of the Institute for National Policy Research, Taiwan Speakers:
|
|
10:15 am to 10:30 am |
Break |
|
10:30 am to 12:00 pm |
Session II: Cross-Strait Economic and Social Ties: Current Trends, and What Will They Look Like in 2025 Chair: Yun-han Chu, Distinguished Fellow of the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica; Professor of Political Science, National Taiwan University Speakers:
|
|
Noon to 1:30 pm |
Luncheon Address and Discussion—“Assessing the First Two Years of the Ma Ying-jeou Presidency: A Conversation with Dr. Su Chi,” former secretary-general of the National Security Council, Republic of China (Taiwan)
|
|
1:45 pm to 3:15 pm |
Session III: The Changing Military Balance: Current Trends and Future Prospects Chair: Larry Diamond, Director, CDDRL Speakers:
|
|
3:15 pm to 3:30 pm |
Break |
|
3:30 pm to 5:00 pm |
Session IV: What kind of (Super) Power will China be in 2025? Political Scenarios and Implications for China’s Foreign Policy and Taiwan Policy Chair: Tom Fingar, the Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow and Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University Speakers:
|
Saturday, May 29, 2010 |
|
|
8:30 am to 9:00 am |
Continental Breakfast |
|
9:00 am to 10:40 am |
Session V: How will Taiwan (Re)Define Itself Politically, Economically and Internationally by 2025 Chair: Jean Oi, William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics, and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University Speakers:
|
|
10:40 am to 11:00 am |
Break |
|
11:00 am to 12:40 pm |
Session VI: How will the U.S. Relate to China’s Rising Power and Taiwan’s Rising Vulnerability Chair: Larry Diamond, Director, CDDRL Speakers:
|
|
12:40 pm to 1:45 pm |
Lunch |
|
1:45 pm to 3:15 pm |
Roundtable Conclusion |
Bechtel Conference Center
In this conversation, former Secretary General of National Security Council, Republic of China (Taiwan), Su Chi, and Director of CDDRL, Larry Diamond, will engage in a conversation about the first two years of President Ma Ying-jeou's administration. The topics to be explored will include President Ma’s performance in domestic, international and cross-strait policy; the trajectory of the complicated triangular relationship among Taiwan, China, and the United States; domestic political trends in Taiwan; and the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) Party’s future political prospects as Taiwan looks toward special municipal elections at the end of this year and then a presidential election in March of 2012.
Serving as Secretary General of National Security Council between May 2008 and February 2010, Dr. Su Chi was widely considered one of President Ma’s closest and most trusted advisers since the KMT returned to power in 2008. A prominent political scientist, Dr. Su began his government career in 1989 as Secretary General of the President’s Office. In 1993-94, he was appointed Commissioner of the Research, Development and Evaluation Commission, Executive Yuan. In 1993-96, he was Vice Chairman of the ministerial-level Mainland Affairs Council, Executive Yuan. He was then appointed Director-General of the Government Information Office in 1996-97. Between 1997 and 1999, Dr. Su was Deputy Secretary-General to President Lee Teng-hui. In 1999-2000, he served as the Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. Between 2005 and 2008, he was a KMT Legislator.
Dr. Su Chi obtained his MA and Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, MA in International Studies from the Johns Hopkins University, and BA in National Chengchi University (Taiwan).
Oksenberg Conference Room
CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.
Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad. A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).
During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.
Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab World; Will China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.
Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.
Leaders or representatives from 47 countries recently attended the nuclear security summit in Washington. By holding a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama and delivering an important speech at the summit, Hu Jintao highlighted China's positive image for people across the globe and helped reverse the deterioration of US-China relations.
Obviously, it takes a long path toward establishing a global mechanism to counter nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. Many of these leaders were not quite sure whether they would come away from the summit empty-handed.
However, they decided to attend the summit mainly to respond positively to Obama, who had launched a number of initiatives to build a nuclear-free world. The same is true for Hu Jintao and his decision to attend the summit.
Hu's visit to Washington will help lead the bilateral relations toward a positive direction. Although some disputes continue between the two countries, Hu's visit to Washington will no doubt contribute to lowering U.S. hostility toward China.
Earlier, the rapid increase in GDP had stimulated some Chinese diplomats to take blind pride in dealing with their foreign counterparts. Now, it is time to rethink whether it is necessary to adhere to the well-established principle of keeping a low profile in handling Sino-American relations.
China's GDP will soon become the second largest in the world. Who is the greatest beneficiary from the pursuance of this principle over the past three decades? Needless to say, it is China.
Now, China is just halfway through its course of "peaceful rise." In the foreseeable future, the United States will remain the No. 1 power in the world. Two decades from now, who will become the greatest beneficiary if China, as the biggest developing country, is able to maintain stable relations with Washington? Obviously, the answer is China.
In his opening statement at the summit, Obama pointed out that in today's world, the world has reduced the risk of a nuclear war between big powers, but the threat of nuclear terrorist assaults is increasing. He is right. Terrorists can penetrate all places throughout the world without leaving a trace.
It is difficult for all major powers, especially the United States, to detect and prevent them from launching assaults including sudden attacks with "dirty bombs" as weapons. As such, the whole world faces the most serious security challenge.
Such a strategic assessment prompted Obama to convene the nuclear security summit as well as his earlier initiative of "a world free of nuclear weapons." Preoccupied by this assessment, he has spared no effort to promote the campaign of countering nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism.
To fight nuclear terrorism, the summit focused on establishing an international nuclear security mechanism. The United States and many countries face the threat of nuclear terrorism. China is no exception.
In case the East Turkistan separatists consider the timing is mature to intensify conflicts with Beijing, they will no doubt take whatever means necessary to penetrate nuclear facilities or acquire "dirty bombs." Moreover, the large-scale construction of nuclear power plants in China introduces more security challenges. China will be in the peak period of building such plants in the next two decades.
The ongoing construction of such plants scattered in coastal areas would expose the nation to threat. A terrorist attack on even one plant would result in consequences more serious than that of detonating a nuclear bomb over a city. Taking this into account, Beijing has adopted various measures to strengthen nuclear security in recent years.
As a positive response from China to the international community, Hu Jintao made the decision to attend the summit, which reflects that Beijing and Washington actually are sharing common interests by making joint efforts to establish a global mechanism for countering nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism.
This action indicates that Beijing regards nuclear terrorist assaults as a huge threat to national security interests and it hopes to strengthen international cooperation to limit or even eliminate this type of threat.
Also, this decision has indeed enabled China to avert a head-on collision with the United States and helped reverse a deterioration of U.S.-China relations. Based on this, we can suppose that Beijing is able to conduct strategic adjustment at a critical moment and formulate appropriate foreign policies.