Stanford University

Cybersecurity and Cyberwarfare

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Zittrain will discuss the false starts in understanding the simultaneously underappreciated and overhyped fields of cybersecurity and cyberwarfare, and offer a view on where the deepest problems lie -- and how to address them.

About the speaker: Jonathan Zittrain is a Professor of Law at Harvard Law School and the Kennedy School of Government, Professor of Computer Science at Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, and a co-founder of the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University. Previously, he was Professor of Internet Governance and Regulation at Oxford University and a principal of the Oxford Internet Institute. He was also a visiting professor at the New York University School of Law and Stanford Law School.

Zittrain’s research interests include battles for control of digital property and content, cryptography, electronic privacy, the roles of intermediaries within Internet architecture, and the useful and unobtrusive deployment of technology in education. He was co-counsel with Lawrence Lessig in Eldred v. Ashcroft, challenging the Sonny Bono Copyright Term Extension Act of 1998. The case lost 7-2 at the Supreme Court.

He also performed the first large-scale tests of Internet filtering in China and Saudi Arabia in 2002, and as part of the OpenNet Initiative, he has co-edited studies of Internet filtering by national governments, Access Denied: The Practice and Policy of Global Internet Filtering and Access Controlled: The Shaping of Power, Rights, and Rule in Cyberspace. His brainchild Herdict – a website that collects and tracks self-reported inaccessible sites from around the world- was launched in February, 2009. His book about the future of the now-intertwined Internet and PC, “The Future of the Internet — And How to Stop It,” came out in April 2008 from Yale University Press and Penguin UK — and under a Creative Commons license.

Zittrain holds a bachelor’s degree in cognitive science and artificial intelligence from Yale University, a J.D. from Harvard Law School, and a master’s in public administration from Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Internet Society, the Board of Directors of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, and a faculty fellow and Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, where he also chairs the Global Agenda Council on the Future of the Internet.

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Jonathan Zittrain Professor of Law at Harvard Law School and Professor of Computer Science at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Speaker
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ITRI-SPRIE Forum sheds light on interdisciplinary collaboration for smart green innovation

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More than 100 delegates gathered in Taipei on December 14th to attend the 2011 ITRI-SPRIE Forum on “Interdisciplinary Collaboration for Smart Green Innovation”, jointly organized by Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) and the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE). Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK) of ITRI and SPRIE have collaborated since 2004 to conduct research and convene policymakers, executives and researchers at international forums in Taipei, Beijing, and at Stanford creating a platform between Taiwan, mainland China, and Silicon Valley to advance innovation and economic growth.

Focusing on strategies for commercialization of green technologies, the one-day Forum, sponsored by Taiwan’s Department of Industrial Technology (DoIT) at Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), attracted a crowd of senior executives of large enterprises and clean-energy startups in Taiwan, local government officials, think-tank experts and academics from local research institutions and universities. The discussion included the importance of information technologies in reducing carbon emissions and the opportunities this presented to Taiwan given its strengths in IT.

The event follows SPRIE’s international forum on Innovation Beyond Boundaries: Partnerships for Advancing Smart, Green Living, held on June 29th and 30th, 2011 at Stanford University.

Executive Yuan Minister without Portfolio Jin-fu Chang opened the Forum at Taipei International Convention Center. The keynote address was delivered by Professor Dan Reicher, executive director of Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance, former Department of Energy assistant secretary under the Clinton administration and member of President Obama's transition team. In his keynote presentation entitled “Clean Energy: The Intersection of Technology, Policy and Finance”, Professor Reicher pointed out the importance of government support of energy technology commercialization, including new financial models for technology application and smart standards for energy efficiency.

The invitation-only morning panel discussion, chaired by MOEA Vice Minister Jung-Chiou Huang, covered a range of issues, including public-private partnerships for technology innovation and market applications, policies to boost smart green innovative competitiveness, and central/local collaboration schemes to achieve smart green city and industry development.

During the afternoon session open to the public, Stephen Su, General Director of IEK, argued that Taiwan holds enormous potential to become an innovation base for smart green technologies, with its strong foundation in the ICT industry and advanced supply chain management. He noted this could be a new potential industry for Taiwan and Silicon Valley to collaborate after the semiconductor industry to extend the advantages of regional competitiveness.

SPRIE faculty co-directors William F. Miller and Henry S. Rowen also shared their views and experience on public-private partnerships for green growth and strategies for innovation at the Forum.

The Forum concluded that transferring technologies to industry for society’s use and benefit is in the common interest of government, research institutions and enterprises. It will also continue to act as the engine of knowledge-based economies and innovative growth. Low-carbon economic development will rely on integration of interdisciplinary innovation, and the implementation of technology commercialization, in order to amplify the benefit of R & D investment.

Major Taiwan media outlets such as the United Daily News, Central News Agency and Mechanical Tech. Magazine all covered the event.

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Consent of the Networked: The Worldwide Struggle for Internet Freedom

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Abstract
A global struggle for control of the Internet is now underway. At stake are no less than civil liberties, privacy and even the character of democracy in the 21st century.

Many commentators have debated whether the Internet is ultimately a force for freedom of expression and political liberation, or for alienation, and repression. Rebecca MacKinnon moves the debate about the Internet’s political impact to a new level. It is time, she says, to stop arguing over whether the Internet empowers individuals and societies, and address the more fundamental and urgent question of how technology should be structured and governed to support the rights and liberties of all the world’s Internet users.

Rebecca MacKinnon is a Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, where she conducts research, writing and advocacy on global Internet policy, free expression, and the impact of digital technologies on human rights. She is author of Consent of the Networked: The Worldwide Struggle for Internet Freedom (Basic Books, January 2012). MacKinnon is also cofounder of Global Voices, an international citizen media network. She also serves on the Boards of Directors of the Committee to Protect Journalists and the Global Network Initiative.

Fluent in Mandarin Chinese, MacKinnon worked as a journalist for CNN in Beijing for nine years and was Beijing Bureau Chief and Correspondent from 1998-2001, then served as CNN’s Tokyo Bureau Chief and Correspondent from 2001-03. From 2004-06 she was a Research Fellow at Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society, where she began her ongoing research and writing about the Chinese Internet in addition to launching Global Voices with colleague Ethan Zuckerman. In 2007-08 she taught online journalism at the University of Hong Kong’s Journalism and Media Studies Centre. In 2009 she conducted research and writing as an Open Society Fellow, and in the Spring of 2010 she was a Visiting Fellow at Princeton’s Center or Information Technology Policy.

MacKinnon received her AB magna cum laude from Harvard University and was a Fullbright scholar in Taiwan in 1991-92.

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Rebecca MacKinnon Bernard L. Schwartz Senior Fellow Speaker New America Foundation
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Liberation Technology Seminar Series

Oil and Governance: State-owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply

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National oil companies (NOCs) produce most of the world’s oil and natural gas and bankroll governments across the globe. Although NOCs superficially resemble private-sector companies, they often behave in very different ways. To understand these pivotal state-owned enterprises and the long shadow they cast on world energy markets, the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) at Stanford University commissioned Oil and Governance: State-owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply. The 1000-page volume, edited by David Victor, David Hults, and Mark Thurber, explains the variation in the performance and strategy of NOCs, and provides fresh insights into the future of the oil industry as well as the politics of the oil-rich countries where NOCs dominate. It comprises fifteen case studies, each following a common research design, of NOCs based in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Europe. The book also includes cross-cutting pieces on the industrial structure of the oil industry and the politics and administration of NOCs.

NOCs are distinguished from private companies by their need to respond to state goals beyond profit maximization. Governments seeking to retain their hold on power use NOCs to deliver benefits to influential elites (“private goods”) or to the broader population (“social goods”). Oil and Governance finds a strong correlation between such non-hydrocarbon burdens on the NOC—which include providing employment, subsidizing fuel, or handing out plum jobs to the politically connected—and deficiencies in oil and gas performance. The highest-performing NOCs, like Norway’s Statoil and Brazil’s Petrobras, face relatively circumscribed non-oil demands from their governments.

How governments administer their oil sectors also proves to be a crucial determinant of NOC performance. Democracies (e.g., Norway, Brazil) and autocracies (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Angola) alike are capable of grooming successful NOCs. What matters most for outcomes is not regime type per se but rather that governance systems provide unified signals to the NOC. (By contrast, regime type is observed to be an important driver of whether governments nationalize their oil sectors in the first place, or privatize existing NOCs.) Fragmented governance, in which multiple government actors assert their interests but no one assumes strategic responsibility, appears uniformly fatal to NOC performance. Nascent democracies like Mexico’s can be particularly vulnerable to oil sector dysfunction stemming from fragmentation. Governance systems must also be matched to a country’s institutional and political realities. Nigeria has arguably set back its progress in oil through attempts to slavishly imitate Norway’s forms of oil organization in the absence of Norway’s mature political and civil service institutions.

The close ties between the NOC and its government can have a detrimental effect on the ability of the NOC to manage the risks that are so characteristic of the oil and gas industry. Whereas private companies are forced to hone their geological knowledge and skills through global competition for capital and hydrocarbon licenses, NOCs for the most part are comfortably sheltered from competitive threats at home. They therefore fail to develop the global reach that helps private players (the international oil companies, or IOCs) manage risk by means of a diversified global portfolio and the ability to link resources to customers around the world. (Some NOCs have begun to internationalize in recent years, but it is striking that none of the NOCs studied in Oil and Governance went down this path until forced to by domestic resource scarcity, or at least of the perception of future scarcity.) The soft budget constraint faced by the NOC also discourages the cost efficiencies that help mitigate risk.

This gulf in risk management capabilities between IOCs and most NOCs suggests that the resource dominance of NOCs does not pose an existential threat to private oil companies. Private players will continue to play a key role in the frontiers of oil and gas development—frontiers like shale gas, oil sands, and the remote Arctic. NOCs will continue to control low-cost oil around the world, while a select few of the most focused and unencumbered among them start to build up their own risk management skills through partnerships with IOCs.

NOC control over resources has important implications for the world oil price. The NOCs studied in the book produce their reserves at half the rate of the major IOCs—whether due to lower performance or a deliberate attempt to preserve resources for the future. Moreover, governments tend to rely most heavily on the risk management skills of IOCs when prices are low and then swing back towards NOCs in high price periods when they can afford to focus on delivering benefits to favored constituencies. The result of this dynamic, which is observed in the case studies of Oil and Governance, can be “backward bending supply curves” that exaggerate price volatility in the world oil market.

This effect of NOCs on global oil supply and price appears to be much more important than any geopolitical fallout from NOC primacy around the world. Oil and Governance finds very little evidence that NOCs act as effective foreign policy weapons on behalf of their host states. Even where politicians may desire to employ NOCs in this way, the incentives of the NOC itself are usually strongly opposed to such an exercise of power. As one example, Europe’s Gazprom depends overwhelmingly on revenues from gas exports to Europe because gas is so heavily subsidized in Russia. When NOCs do venture abroad, as in the case of China’s CNPC, they are often motivated to do so precisely by the desire to achieve more autonomy from their political masters at home.

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Exporting the 'Norwegian Model': The effect of administrative design on oil sector performance

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Exporting the 'Norwegian Model': The effect of administrative design on oil sector performance
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June 2011
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Cambridge University Press
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David G. Victor
David Hults
Mark C. Thurber

Rural Electrification: Strategies for Distributed Generation

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An estimated 1.6 billion people worldwide have no access to electricity. An untold number of others live with electricity that is erratic and of poor quality. How can electric power be brought into their lives when the centralized utility models that have evolved in developed nations are not an economically viable option? Small-scale Distributed Generation (DG), ranging from individual solar home systems to village level grids run off diesel generators, could provide the answer, and this book compares around 20 DG enterprises and projects in Brazil, Cambodia and China, each of which is considered to be a "business model" for distributed rural electrification.

While large, centralized power projects often rely on big subsidies, this study shows that privately run and localized solutions can be both self-sustaining and replicable.  The book's three sections provide a general introduction to the issue of electrification and rural development, set out the details of the case studies and compare the models involved, and discuss the important thematic issues of equity, access to capital and cost-recovery. Zerriffi shows that in each case, it is not simply a matter of matching a particular technology to a particular need. Numerous institutional factors come into play, including the regulatory regime, access to financial services, and government/utility support or opposition to the DG alternative.

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Hisham Zerriffi

Stanford's Shin on Kim Jong Il's death and what's next for North Korea

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As the world reacts to the death of Kim Jong Il, Stanford’s Gi-Wook Shin talks about the transition of power in North Korea. He discusses what’s in store for relations between Pyongyang and Washington, and what to expect of what is perhaps Kim’s most troubling legacy: his nuclear weapons program.

Shin is a senior fellow at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and director of FSI's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and its Korean Studies Program. The sociology professor is also the Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Chair of Korean Studies.

Kim Jong Il’s son, Jong Un, is set to take over North Korea’s leadership. What do we know about him, and what can we expect from his leadership?

Unlike his father, who had been groomed as a successor for many years, Kim Jong Un was designated as a successor only recently. As a result, it is questionable whether he is ready to take over the failing regime. Kim Jong Il’s death was not entirely unexpected, but still came sooner than many experts had thought.

Jong Un is only 28 years old without much experience in politics and governance and has not yet been able to consolidate his power. Although his status as a new leader is not likely to be challenged, it won’t be easy at all to establish himself as a strong leader like his father, let alone like his grandfather, Kim Il Song. 

In the years to come, his in-laws—such as Jang Seong Taek—will play an important role behind Kim. The military will also be a key player in the post-Kim Jong Il era.

You were in South Korea when Kim Jong Il died. What was the mood and reaction to the news?

People were taken by surprise but there was no panic. The government is handling the situation well, while many citizens wonder what will happen to North Korea with the passing of Kim Jong Il.

How can the United States deal with this transition in power? Will there be any change in relations between Washington and Pyongyang?

Representatives of North Korea and the U.S. recently met in Beijing to discuss food aid and nuclear issues. There was some optimism with the prospect to improve the bilateral relations. However, any direct talks between the two countries to discuss major issues will be on hold for a while as the northern regime mourns the loss of its leader and focuses on internal stability. The U.S. should pay keen attention to the transitional process and needs to support a smooth transition in power. That should entail close collaboration with neighboring countries, especially South Korea and China. And it should include providing food aid that the U.S. has been considering.

How does Kim Jong Il's death fit in with other key political transitions happening throughout the world in the coming year?

There is a great deal of uncertainty on the Korean peninsula. Besides this transition in power in North Korea, there will also be power transitions in China and Russia next year. And there will also be presidential elections in the U.S., South Korea, and Taiwan in 2012. Japan may have a new prime minister too, adding more uncertainty to the situation. 

On the other hand, uncertainty does not necessarily mean a crisis—it is unlikely that the North will provoke tensions on the peninsula. The coming year is a very important one for North Korea as it celebrates itself as a “mighty, prosperous nation.” But it faces many challenges.

I don’t expect any significant change in inter-Korean relations until perhaps 2013, when South Korea elects a new administration and North Korea is stabilized with a new political leadership. 

What does Kim Jong Il’s death mean for North Korea’s nuclear program?

North Korea has nuclear weapons and an enriched uranium program that could produce nuclear bombs. Very few expect the North to give up its nuclear bombs. Added uncertainty over the transition of power and heightened concern about regime survival will only increase the value that North Korea sees in possessing nuclear weapons. 

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People read an extra edition of a newspaper reporting the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Seoul.
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Getting to the roots of the tobacco industry

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Tobacco now kills 90 times more people each year than HIV/AIDS in China. China's tobacco industry is closely tied to the global industry, and the Asia Health Policy Program is working to establish a new field of research on its history, beginning with a Mar. 2012 conference at the new Stanford Center at Peking University. Robert Proctor, a Stanford historian and author of a groundbreaking new book on the global tobacco industry, will take part.
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Beauty and smoking are paired in this vintage-style cigarette poster in China, Nov. 2005.
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The Creation of the Venture Capital /PE Backed Entrepreneurial Community in China

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Please click here to listen to the podcast of this event on the changing investment landscape in China.

About the speakers

Howard Chao
Howard Chao is the Senior Partner of O’Melveny’s Asia Practice. During his 31 years with the Firm he has been engaged in a broad variety of transactional matters. He was responsible for establishing our China offices, and was stationed in our Shanghai office for many years. He is currently engaged in a general corporate practice, with an emphasis on cross-border and Asia matters.

Howard is a recognized authority on China and has extensive experience advising clients on China matters. He has advised clients from many sectors in connection with their investments and operations in Asia. More recently, Howard has been assisting Chinese companies with their outbound investment transactions.

In the United States, Howard has advised clients in connection with a variety of transactional matters, including M&A, corporate finance and PE/VC investments.

 

Duncan Clark
Duncan Clark is Chairman of BDA China, a consultancy he founded in Beijing in 1994 after four years as an investment banker with Morgan Stanley in London and Hong Kong. Over the past 18 years, Duncan has guided BDA to become the leading investment advisory firm in China specialized in China’s technology, internet and ecommerce sectors. Duncan is also a Senior Advisor to the ‘China 2.0’ initiative at SPRIE, where he was invited as a Visiting Scholar from 2010-2011.

A partner at mobile game app developer Happy Latte, he has also served on the Advisory Board of Netease.com (Nasdaq: NTES) and serves on the Advisory Board of the Digital Communication Fund of Geneva-based bank Pictet & Cie.

A UK citizen, Duncan was raised in England, the United States and France.He is the elected Chairman of the British Chamber of Commerce in China, Vice Chair of the China-Britain Business Council and Vice Chair of the ICT Working Group of the European Chamber of Commerce in China.

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Duncan Clark

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Duncan Clark is Chairman of BDA China, a consultancy he founded in Beijing in 1994 after four years as an investment banker with Morgan Stanley in London and Hong Kong. Over the past 19 years, Duncan has guided BDA to become the leading investment advisory firm in China specialized in China's technology, internet and e-commerce sectors.

An angel investor in mobile game app developer Happy Latte and digital content metrics company App Annie Duncan has also served on the Advisory Board of Chinese internet company Netease.com (Nasdaq: NTES) and serves on the Advisory Board of the Digital Communication Fund of Geneva-based bank Pictet & Cie.

A UK citizen, Duncan was raised in England, the United States and France. A graduate of the London School of Economics & Political Science, Duncan is a Senior Advisor to the ‘China 2.0' initiative at the Stanford Graduate School of Business’s Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, where he was invited as a Visiting Scholar in 2010 and 2011.

Duncan is partner in a Beijing-based film production company CIB Productions, and Executive Producer of two China-themed television documentaries including ‘My Beijing Birthday’.

Duncan was appointed Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2013 New Year Honours for services to British commercial interests in China.

Duncan Clark Chairman Speaker BDA China
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Stanford expert: Asia's year in review

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The past year unfolded with Japan’s unprecedented triple disaster and closed with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s historic trip to Myanmar. Moving into 2012, Europe’s economy creaks along uncertainly and China gears up for a major leadership change. In an interview with the Ukranian magazine Glavred, political science professor Phillip Lipscy discusses landmark Asian economic and political events of 2011, and what they could mean in the coming year.

What was the most significant event in terms of Asia’s economy in 2011?

The March 11 Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami: Besides the tragic loss of life and property, the disaster disrupted global supply chains and plunged the Japanese economy into a recession. The nuclear meltdown in Fukushima also led many countries to question the future of nuclear energy—this will have long-lasting consequences for global energy markets and efforts to deal with climate change.

What was the most significant political event?

Signs of political opening in Burma/Myanmar could have profound consequences not only for that country but for the rest of Asia as well. Hillary Clinton became the first U.S. Secretary of State to visit the country in 50 years. Aung San Suu Kyi has been released from detention and the National League for Democracy has re-registered as a political party. If this leads to democratization, it will be remembered as an important turning point.

What new policy and economic trends appeared in 2011? Which of them will continue into the coming year?

There seems to be a subtle shift in views towards China's economy. Chinese government officials are deeply concerned about the "middle income trap." China has reached a level of development where many countries saw their economic growth slow down sharply. Rising incomes are eroding China's advantage in low-cost manufacturing. There is much talk of multinational companies relocating their operations to even cheaper countries, such as Vietnam. This is an important transition for China, and it will remain an important issue in coming years.

In terms of people, who do you feel was the most notable, and who was
the most disappointing this past year?

The people of Japan, who responded with remarkable perseverance, order, and discipline to such a tragic natural disaster.  

The most disappointing were the political leaders of Japan, who could not set aside
their differences and come together for the sake of their country.

Will China continue to spread its influence in 2012, and might any countries oppose this process?

China is now the second largest economy in the world and an important military power. It is inevitable that China will rise in international stature and influence. However, Chinese leaders also face some important challenges—rising inequality, an overheated housing market, and bad loans in its financial system. The focus of international attention should be on integrating China into the world order as a peaceful, responsible stakeholder—not on confrontation.

What impact could the economic crisis in Europe have on the economics and international policy of the Asia-Pacific region?

If the financial crisis in Europe is mismanaged, nobody will escape the consequences. Europe is a crucial export market for Asian countries, and European financial institutions are major lenders to emerging economies in the region. Equally as important, repeated financial crises and political mismanagement in the United States, Japan, and Europe could begin to undermine perceptions of democratic government and capitalism.

What will be most important event in Asia next year?

China's leadership transition, particularly given the many immediate challenges the country faces.

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U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Aung San Suu Kyi at her house in Rangoon, Myanmar, Dec. 2011.
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