As the U.S. presidential election swiftly approaches, many wonder what policy approach the next president - be it Barack Obama or Mitt Romney - will take with regard to China. Thomas Fingar, FSI’s Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow, considers how the outcome of the election could impact U.S.-China relations, and how the United States could focus its priorities in Asia.

Q. How does China see a Mitt Romney presidency?

Fingar: Conventional wisdom about China has long held that Beijing prefers Republicans to Democrats, primarily because Republicans are thought to be more interested in trade and less concerned about human rights. I'm not sure that particular characterization of Beijing's views was ever correct, but to the extent that it was, it is of decreasing importance and almost entirely absent now. The Chinese have been anxious about Governor Romney’s positions on China during the campaign, seeing his statements as excessive or unjustifiably critical and indicative of a determination to contain or constrain China's economic rise.

Beijing has expressed concern that Romney intends to act in ways that threaten China's continued rapid economic growth and undermine the communist-led regime. Such concerns were likely alleviated during the final debate when Romney said he views China as a potential partner, not an adversary. However, the Chinese will likely assume that Romney's call for more defense spending is aimed at containing China, since the United States’ only other declared security threat is Iran.

Q. Romney says he would label China a currency manipulator on “day one” of his presidency. Do presidents have the power to do such a thing? Could this trigger a trade war?

Fingar: Presidents can certainly announce rhetorical positions, but it is highly unlikely that such a declaration would lead to actions that could trigger a trade war. It could launch a political and bureaucratic process in which advocates with competing objectives and strategies would seek to fashion policy adjustments in order to achieve them. It would not, however, lead automatically to actions that would damage a relationship in which Americans, as well as the Chinese, have an enormously important stake.

Q. What positive or problematic developments could impact U.S.-China relations if Obama wins a second term?

Fingar: I anticipate many issues and problems, but no crises. The foundation for the relationship – interdependence and mutual benefit – is strong and growing stronger. That said, what happens in China will be important to the United States and command presidential attention. If China's economy continues to slow, it will slow recovery of the U.S. economy, both directly and by reducing Chinese purchases and sales to and from third countries that use earnings from sales to China to purchase goods and services from the United States. Continued deferral of resolving territorial disputes in the Sea of Japan and South China Sea will exacerbate perceptions that the United States should serve as a counterbalance to China, complicating U.S.-China relations. Another issue sure to be on the table is Chinese failure to honor World Trade Organization and intellectual property rights commitments.

Q. Obama’s rhetoric on China has become increasingly aggressive. Do you anticipate a tougher stand toward China if he is re-elected?

Fingar: Nothing that President Obama has said during the campaign suggests to me that he would make significant changes to U.S. policy toward China if he were re-elected. It would be a mistake to read too much into the number of times China is mentioned relative to other countries, as “China” is often used as a proxy for all foreign economic competition and the effects of globalization. Beijing should not take this personally; this is part of the price of becoming the world’s second-largest economy and having the biggest trade deficit with the United States. Far more important than such rhetoric are Obama’s and Romney’s references to seeking a partnership with China and the need for China to “play by the rules” with respect to WTO commitments, intellectual property rights and the treatment of foreign firms operating in China. I am confident Obama has no desire to make China into an enemy and no intention to contain or constrain China’s “rise.”

Q. Some doubt the Pentagon has the resources to deter Iran while pivoting to Asia. Which is more urgent for the new administration?

Fingar: The United States continues to have enormous military capabilities. Moreover, it counts as allies and partners most other major nations and military powers. Iran knows that, but threats to use military force are not likely to persuade Tehran to abandon the potential to acquire nuclear weapons. Indeed, such threats would likely bolster the arguments of people who claim Iran needs nuclear weapons to deter stronger and hostile adversaries.  Diplomacy, backed by international sanctions, and enlightened Iranian self-interest offer a far better path to deterring Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Q. Do you expect the so-called Asia pivot to continue under the foreign policy team of the incoming president?

Fingar: East Asia is the most dynamic region in the world and the United States has many important interests and ties there. We are a Pacific power and a Pacific player and must remain heavily engaged in the region. The “pivot” toward Asia is a misnomer because it implies that we left and are now returning. We never left and never will. The “rebalancing” toward Asia is intended to reduce uncertainty about American intentions and to help prolong the period of peace and stability that has been critical to the achievement of prosperity and interdependence in the region. I hope the new administration, whoever wins, will redouble efforts to build a new, inclusive security arrangement for the region.

Jon Huntsman, the former U.S. ambassador to China, discusses U.S.-Chinese collaboration. He spoke at the third annual China 2.0 conference "China 2.0: Fostering Innovation Beyond Boundaries", hosted by the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) at the Stanford Graduate School of Business on September 28, 2012.

Thursday, October 11^th is World Sight Day, which raises global awareness about eye care. It was on this occasion that the opening ceremony for the “Seeing is Learning” project was held in Panshi Elementary School in the town of Xinxing, Gangu County.

Esteemed attendees of the ceremony included Dr. Zhang Linxiu, Deputy Director of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Director of REAP-China, Dr. Ni Guoliang, Professor at the School of Politics and Administration of Lanzhou University, Ms. Xiao Jiafeng, Director of Business Development of Essilor China, Mr. Huo Weiping, Vice Mayor of Tianshui, Mr. Yang Shengli, Deputy Secretary-General of Tianshui, Mr. Fu Ping, Deputy Secretary at the Department of Education of Tianshui, Mr. Shen Junming, Deputy Secretary of Gangu County, Ms. Dong Jun, Minister of the Publicity Department of Gangu County, and Ms. Pan Huiqin, Deputy Magistrate of Gangu County. A number of principals, teachers, parents and students of schools involved in the project also attended the ceremony.　

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Dr. Zhang Linxiu, Deputy Director of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Director of REAP-China describes the research behind the “Seeing is Learning” project.

Deputy Secretary-General Yang Shengli hosted the opening ceremony. Mr. Huo Weiping, Ms. Pan Huiqin, Dr. Zhang Linxiu, Dr. Ni Guoliang, Ms. Xiao Jiafeng, and representatives from the Department of Education and the Department of Health delivered speeches at the ceremony. Specifically, Dr. Zhang introduced her team and current research, and Dr. Ni gave a progress report on the “Seeing is Learning” project. Ms. Xiao Jiafeng spoke on behalf of the Essilor Group. Eyeglasses were also given to a number of shortsighted elementary school students at the ceremony.

Mr. Huo Weiping, Vice Mayor of Tianshui, warmly welcomed the guests and expressed his appreciation to the groups that provided special care to the development of children in the area. “Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Northwestern University, Lanzhou University and other research institutions have made great contributions to children in Tianshui. Starting in 2010, through the Nutrition and Health Education Project conducted in rural elementary schools in Tianshui, the institutions have raised the awareness of the importance of nutrition and health among children and simultaneously helped their development,” he said. 

“Seeing is Learning” is a project proposed by CAS, Northwestern University, Lanzhou University, and the Essilor Group. The project aims to spread knowledge about eye protection for children in rural schools so that they can have more opportunities to learn. It benefits the children in terms of preventing eye diseases and supporting their physical development. CAS, Northwestern University, Lanzhou University, and the Essilor Group are exemplary models for their selfless work to help rural children.

Mr. Huo also emphasized the importance of cooperation between different departments affiliated with city municipality, in order to lay a solid foundation for the implementation of the project. He also underscored the need to compile a collection of best practices that could benefit the development of more rural children and facilitate the growth of education and health services in Tianshui. 

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The project was made possible by close collaboration among various institutions, municipalities, and the Essilor Group.

On behalf of several organizations in Gangu County, Ms. Pan Huiqin, Deputy Magistrate of Gangu County, expressed her warm welcome and appreciation to the Essilor Group, Dr. Zhang Linxiu, and other specialists for attending the opening ceremony. In her speech, she also addressed the progress that the county government has made in the past few years. “In recent years, the county government has focused on sustainable development and emphasized education as the way to improve the standard of living. The government prioritizes the funding, resources, human capital and policies related to education,” she said. “In this way, we have improved the quality of education in Gangu County significantly. Gangu County has set up a great example for improving educational services in the greater Tianshui area.”

However, Ms. Pan also emphasized the challenges faced by the county government. “Although we have achieved notable progress in our educational services, students are still anxious and their learning environment has yet to be improved. The children are likely to have health problems such as poor vision. Currently, many middle school and elementary school children have bad eyesight, which affects their studies and daily life negatively,” she said.

“The ‘Seeing is Learning’ project was developed through collaboration among Essilor Group, the Center for Agriculture Policy at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Northwest Socioeconomic Development Research Center, Lanzhou University, and Tianshui’s Department of Education, with support from Tianshui municipal government. This project aims to protect the eyesight of rural school children, and as a result, increase their test scores. It is divided into 3 segments – eyesight exams, free eyeglass fittings, and vision care training. It is estimated that the project will benefit nearly 3000 children in 24 schools located in 10 towns. With a pair of eyeglasses, a shortsighted child can see the world clearly. Free glasses will also alleviate the financial burden for some families. After the project is implemented, we will be able to better understand the state of vision health among rural school children in the county, and help raise awareness about vision problems in children. The implementation of ‘Seeing is Learning’ will not only help the development of school children, but the project will also improve test scores, and the overall education quality in the county,” said Pan.

To read the article in Chinese, please click here.

Hallmarks during the first year of young North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s reign range from a much-publicized failed rocket launch to the appearance (and then disappearance) of an attractive, stylish wife by his side. Such events have prompted questions about the new leader’s intentions for the future, including the possibility of reform.

But there is another side to the Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK) that often goes overlooked: its 20 million ordinary citizens. Only Beautiful, Please, a new book by former British diplomat John Everard, delves into the daily life of North Koreans and examines the challenges of developing successful diplomatic relations with the country.

Everard was Britain’s ambassador to North Korea between 2006 and 2008 and is a former Pantech Fellow of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies. He presented highlights from his book, and offered his insight into current North Korea events during a seminar at Stanford on Oct. 26.

In a recent interview, Everard discussed his book, the prospect of reform in North Korea, and important considerations for engagement with the isolated country.

What is the significance of the book’s title?

A friend visiting me from the U.K. was pursued by a group of North Koreans who were convinced he had photographed things that did not show the DPRK in the best light. An army officer was eventually summoned, and after examining the pictures he concluded there was nothing offensive in them. As he returned my friend’s camera, he turned to me and said in his best English: “Only beautiful, please.” He meant that he wanted us to only photograph beautiful things in the DPRK.

I took this for the title because it says quite a lot about how the DPRK likes to hide the negative aspects of life there, and to portray itself as a country where only good things take place.

What do you most hope readers will take away from your book?

I hope readers will come away with the understanding that the DPRK is a real country, where real people live. North Korea is different from other countries in many important ways, but its citizens are much more preoccupied with everyday things like marriage, how their kids are getting on at school, and what they are having for supper, than they are about politics and denuclearization. It is a country with over 20 million people, and I hope their lives and happiness are not overlooked as the international community engages with the DPRK to seek long-term solutions to the difficult problems it poses.

What are the most important needs of North Korea’s citizens?

North Koreans are people like the rest of us, and they have the same physical and emotional needs. They need enough to eat, which is a need not always met. They also need to have normal social interactions. Friendships are very important in the DPRK, even if they are somewhat different than friendships in more open societies. North Koreans also have their self-respect and pride. They are a proud people, and as information about the outside world leaks into the DPRK and they learn how poor and backward their country is they feel quite disoriented. They will need to hold onto their self-respect through what is likely to be a very difficult period in the coming years.

There has been significant speculation in recent months about the possibility of reform in North Korea. Have we seen any tangible signs of plans for reform?

There have been indications that Kim Jong Un had been planning some limited economic reforms, including allowing farmers to retain a certain percentage of their produce after giving part of it to the state. But the most recent report suggests that this plan has stalled after the government realized there would be a poor harvest this year. They have decided it is more important to feed the military than it is to implement economic reforms at this point in time.

Another type of reform is the possibility of greater cultural opening. Mickey Mouse appeared in front of the DPRK leadership at a concert a few weeks ago, for example, and there is also the appearance of Ri Sol Ju, Kim Jong Un’s wife. She is a very presentable young woman, and dresses smartly, (and without wearing the traditional Kim badge). But there have been no further appearances of Mickey Mouse, and Ri Sol Ju has not appeared in public for several weeks. I suspect that these reforms, too, have been put on hold.

These are two quite different types of reform that do not depend on each other, and it is not clear if either of them is going to move forward.

In terms of easing diplomatic relations with North Korea, do you think that reform would pave the way or are there other issues to keep in mind?

If reform does indeed take place – I have my doubts – it might not be the kind of reform that would help improve relations with the DPRK. Economic reform does not necessarily translate into a greater readiness for meaningful dialogue with the international community. 

A crucial point is that there are certain aspects of the DPRK regime that are extremely difficult to change. I argue in my book that the DPRK cannot conduct any kind of meaningful economic reform along the lines China did because to do so would erode the regime’s economic power over its citizens. The regime views this power as intrinsic to its survival. It also cannot allow greater openness because that would allow in new ideas to which the regime has no answer. It will be politically very difficult, and even dangerous, for the regime to encourage the greater openness we have seen in other reforming economies.

The DPRK regime is likely to continue broadly along the lines we have seen for many decades now. Although many people were hoping that Kim Jong Un would bring reforms, and perhaps even better relations with the West, as time passes it seems less likely that these hopes can be realized.

What should the international community keep in mind in its relations with North Korea?

The DPRK has made it abundantly clear it has no intention whatsoever of surrendering its nuclear weapons. It has been hardened in its belief by its analysis of what has happened in the Arab world. Negotiations and talks towards persuading the DPRK to surrender its weapons are doomed to failure. They are not going to do so, and any engagement with the DPRK has to take that as a starting point.

There is a tendency in the United States to see North Korea's foreign relations simply in terms of the U.S.-DPRK relationship (or lack of it). The DPRK’s relations with the United States are indeed very important, but you also have to see the world through the DPRK’s eyes. If you are sitting in Pyongyang, your single most important relationship is with the People’s Republic of China.

Beijing has been deeply concerned about the DPRK’s behavior in a number of areas. Earlier this year, for example, we saw the launch of North Korea’s rocket against China’s express wishes, and the seizure of Chinese fishermen by the DPRK navy. The relationship between the DPRK and China has its difficulties, and one of the big determinants in what happens to the DPRK in the immediate future is going to be the position on the DPRK taken by the incoming Chinese government after the Party Congress in November.

About the Images

Even in central Pyongyang almost any cultivable patch of ground is ploughed for crops, like this one just outside the diplomatic quarter. (Credit: John Everard) 

Stalls at Pyongyang spring trade fair -- the dominance of China at these events is clear. (Credit: John Everard)