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Hendrik M.J. Maier received traditional training in philology and textual criticism of the languages of Indonesia at the University of Leiden, the Netherlands, where he held the chair of Malay and Indonesian Language and Literature before moving to UC Riverside in 2003. His major interests are the languages and literatures of Indonesia and Malaysia, which he now tries to understand within wider networks, in particular the socio-political and cultural interactions within the Southeast Asian region. Some of his secondary interests include so-called "colonial literature."

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Hendrik M.J. Maier Professor, Literature of Southeast Asia and Indonesia Speaker University of California, Riverside
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This paper investigates whether there is a non-linear relationship between income and the private transfers received by households in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, expansion of public social security and other transfer programs is unlikely to crowd out private transfers, contrary to concerns first raised by Barro and Becker. There is little existing evidence for crowding out effects in the literature, but this may be because they have been obscured by methods that ignore non-linearities. If donors switch from altruistic motivations to exchange motivations as recipient income increases, a sharp non-linear relationship between private transfers and income may result. In fact, threshold regression techniques find such non-linearity in the Philippines and after accounting for these there is evidence of serious crowding out, with 30 to 80 percent of private transfers potentially displaced for low-income households [Cox, D., Hansen, B., and Jimenez, E., 2004, How responsive are private transfers to income? Evidence from a laissez-faire economy, Journal of Public Economics.]. To see if these non-linear effects occur more widely, semiparametric and threshold regression methods are used to model private transfers in four developing countriesChina, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Vietnam. The results of our paper suggest that non-linear crowding-out effects are not important features of transfer behaviour in these countries. The transfer derivatives under a variety of assumptions only range between 0 and -0.08. If our results are valid, expansions of public social security to cover the poorest households need not be stymied by offsetting private responses.

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Scott Rozelle
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How has Iran become the most serious foreign policy issue in Indonesian politics? Since democracy was restored to Indonesia in 1999, governments there have had to balance public demands for a strong, independent foreign policy against the reality that the economic and political crises of the past decade have limited Jakarta's influence in global politics. Earlier in this period, presidents and foreign ministers faced little more than sporadic challenges over issues that stood little chance of affecting Indonesian foreign policy beyond Southeast Asia. More recently, however, Iran has actively courted Indonesian legislative and civil society leaders, and they, in turn, have pressed their government to oppose international efforts to curb Tehran's nuclear programs. They sharply criticized the Yudhoyono government for failing to oppose a motion in the International Atomic Energy Agency to refer Iran to the UN Security Council in 2006. This year they triggered a heated debate by opposing the government's decision to join a unanimous Security Council vote that broadened sanctions on Iran. Prof. Malley will examine these trends and assess their implications for Indonesian foreign policy and international security.

Michael Malley teaches comparative and Southeast Asian politics at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey. Before joining the School in 2004, he taught at Ohio University. He earned a PhD in political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, an MA in Asian Studies at Cornell University, and a BS at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's fifth seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

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Michael Malley Assistant Professor, Department of National Security Affairs Speaker Naval Postgraduate School
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Michael A. McFaul
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Most Americans believe that President Clinton faces the most consequential moment of his career on Monday when he is scheduled to testify before Kenneth Starr's grand jury. In fact, a much bigger day for Clinton and the rest of the world comes just two weeks later when the president meets with Boris Yeltsin in Moscow. By this time, Russia very well may be in the throes of a major market meltdown, which in turn might trigger political upheaval on a scale similar to Indonesia. Different from Indonesia, however, Russia still has 10,000 nuclear weapons. The gravity of Russia's crisis makes this September summit one of the most important foreign policy missions of Clinton's presidency and an event of much greater importance than his grand jury testimony.

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Gi-Wook Shin
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Growing economic ties and a new interest in cultural exchanges are bringing the countries of Northeast Asia closer together. Yet wounds from past wrongs -- committed in times of colonialism, war, and dictatorship -- are not fully healed. All nations have some sense of victimization -- Japan vis-à-vis the United States and Russia, and China and Korea vis-à-vis Japan -- and often blame others, rather than taking responsibility.

As with many other cases around the world, reconciliation between countries in the region first occurred between governments. Japan established diplomatic rapprochement with countries it had once invaded or colonized: with the Republic of China in 1952, with the Republic of Korea in 1965, and with the People's Republic of China in 1972.

Yet Northeast Asian nations have failed to come to terms with the past. Japan paid no reparations to its former colonies -- though it gave "grants and aid" to South Korea for normalizing their relations -- and China and Korea were excluded from the

San Francisco Treaty that settled Japanese war crimes and atrocities. Historical issues such as disputed territories and Japan's colonial rule were largely swept under the rug in the Cold War system.

The failure to address historical injustice and to reconcile differing views of the past has strained Sino-Japanese relations and friction between Japan and South Korea over Japan's colonial past remains intense. Even South Korea and China are sparring over the history of the ancient kingdom of Goguryeo. In addition, Taiwan is immersed in a reexamination of the past. The history question touches upon the most sensitive issues of national identity and now fuels the fires of nationalism in Northeast Asia.

In Korea, nationalism has offered a framework for dealing with victims of historical injustice such as the comfort women and forced laborers. It forces issues to be framed in binary opposition -- victims vs. aggressors -- and leaves little room for any alternative. Koreans are reluctant to acknowledge their atrocities during the Vietnam War, but readily criticize similar acts committed by the U.S. during the Korean War. Disputes over the kingdom of Goguryeo reflect lingering irredentist Korean nationalism as well as China's rising nationalism.

In Japan, uncertainties and anxieties created by the post-Cold War security environment and a decade of economic stagnation provided a fertile ground for nationalist politics. Nationalist scholars are making headway in producing textbooks to "make Japanese proud of themselves." Increased official use of such symbols as the flag and the national anthem used by imperial Japan are part of Japan's quest to become a "normal nation." The goodwill generated by Prime Minister Abe's visit to China and South Korea soon after taking office, suggesting a conciliatory policy toward Asia, has been undermined by his recent remarks on the comfort woman issue. If there is any difference between Korea and Japan, it is that the left in Korea -- as opposed to the right in Japan -- is at the forefront of nationalist politics.

China is promoting nationalism to bolster social and political cohesion. Beijing needs a new unifying force to mobilize the nation in pursuit of common goals, such as economic modernization, and the "glue" is nationalism. In the post-Tiananmen era, the Chinese leadership appealed to nationalism (patriotism) to shore up their tainted legitimacy. Nationalism also underpins Chinese foreign policy, both in the region and elsewhere. Territorial disputes, human rights issues, nonproliferation issues -- all of these touch the nationalist nerves of Chinese leaders in Beijing. They do not want to jeopardize relations with their Asian neighbors, but neither do they want to lose face.

Thus, despite increased intra-Asian trade, cultural exchanges, and talk about an East Asian community, Korea, Japan, and China all still find politics of national identity appealing. After all, nationalism is not only about ideology, but also thrives on narrowly defined "national interests." Disputed territories always serve as symbols of national sovereignty that cannot be compromised. The mutual suspicion of Japan and China over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and other territorial waters, as well as the recent escalation of Japan-Korean tension over Dokdo/Takeshima are but two potent reminders.

There is widespread recognition of the need for reconciliation and the final resolution of historical injustices. But there is a fundamental obstacle to reconciliation -- the existence of divided, even conflicting, historical memories. All of the nations involved are bound by very distinct perceptions of history, often contradictory and separated by different accounts of the past and of the context of events. These perceptions are deeply imbedded in public consciousness, transmitted by education, popular culture and through the mass media.

The most daunting task is coming to a common understanding of the past. Whereas a shared view of the past (World War II at least) served to unify (Western) Europe after two devastating wars, history still divides these three close Asian neighbors. Reconciliation has been "thin," and the history issue continues to mar regional cooperation. To achieve a "thicker" reconciliation, they need to move beyond nation-state-oriented, binary victim/aggressor concepts and approaches, and understand reconciliation as a mutual, interactive process. Citizens' groups, NGOs, victim-activist groups -- be they domestic, transnational, or international, and regardless of political orientation -- should be more actively involved.

Second, Northeast Asian nations must recognize that elements in their shared past may contribute to promoting regional reconciliation. China, Japan, and Korea often argue over history, but it is nonetheless true that elements in their past may also contribute to a regional identity. Coping with Western influence since the 19th century is but one area of common ground. Their experience of building modern nation-states and economies is another example. There exist ample cases and instances of common experiences that can be readily used to formulate a shared view of Northeast Asia's modern history.

Third, we need to encourage and teach critical and independent thinking to young Asians about their respective pasts. In particular, we need to cultivate a mutually acceptable, new national history of each country, resituated in a shared regional identity. Nationalism, regionalism, and internationalism will always coexist, but they need not contradict one another. In this critical time of change and desire to cultivate a shared view, we need to redefine these mutually reinforcing ideologies beyond a narrow, exclusive sense of nation.

Ultimately, building a vision for Northeast Asia's future beyond narrow national and political interests requires enlightened political leadership. Unfortunately, until now, the region has not seen such a visionary leader who is committed to cultivating regional reconciliation. On the contrary, many leaders have politicized the history problem for domestic, nationalist consumption. Interpretations of the past are unavoidably political, producing divided memories, and there is strong temptation to politicize the process for current ideological purposes. However tempting, politically convenient, and even psychologically satisfying it may be to blame others, such an approach will neither heal past wounds nor provide a foundation for the future. We need political leadership that can build public support for sometimes unpopular policies aimed at regional reconciliation.

Reprinted with permission from the Korea Herald.

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In his annual testimony before the House Armed Services Committee in March 2006, then - Pacific Commander Admiral William Fallon characterized Southeast Asia as "in the front line of the War on Terrorism." While some in the region welcomed this indication of official American interest, many would have wished to be singled out for more positive reasons. Yet, for many Americans, it took an event as dramatic as the Bali bombings of October 2002 to realize that there were more Malay-speaking Muslims in Southeast Asia than Arabic-speaking ones in the Middle East. Using the little-known sultanate of Brunei as a point of departure, Ambassador Christy will analyze how political Islam in the Malay Muslim world has changed, and how one American diplomat went about shaping US policies to respond to these changes.

Ambassador Gene Christy is a career foreign service officer. At the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, RI, he teaches in the National Security Decision-Making Department, including courses on Asian security perspectives and on Southeast Asia. In Washington D.C. he worked in the State Department on island Southeast Asia issues (2001-02 and 1985-89) and as director for Asia at the National Security Council (2000-01). His diplomatic posts in Southeast Asia prior to serving as ambassador to Brunei included Kuala Lumpur in the 1990s, Jakarta in the 1980s, and Surabaya in the 1970s.

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's eighth seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

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Gene Christy State Department Adviser, US Naval War College, and 2002-2005 US Ambassador to Brunei Darussalam Speaker
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On the morning of 26 December 2004, a massive earthquake and tsunami devastated coastal areas throughout the Indian Ocean region. Most damaged by far was the Indonesian province of Aceh. There, within 30 minutes, some 170,000 lives were lost. The international response was unprecedented. Governments, international agencies, and private citizens contributed massively to relief and reconstruction. The rest of the story is less well known: the difficult and critical transition from emergency aid to sustainable recovery. Based on his personal experience on the ground, Dr. Morris will analyze the successes and failures in managing this transition. He will examine issues of accountability, transparency, and equity. Particular attention will be paid to the convergence of tsunami recovery and conflict recovery in a province afflicted not only by a natural cataclysm but by thirty years of intermittent yet brutal conflict between the central government in Jakarta and the secessionist Free Aceh Movement.

Eric Morris, before his posting to Aceh, headed the New York Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees from 2002 to 2005. In 2000-2001 he served simultaneously as special envoy in the Balkans of the High Commissioner for Refugees and as UN humanitarian coordinator for Kosovo. In 1998-99 he was deputy special representative of the secretary general for the UN Mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He received his Ph.D from Cornell University, an MA from Yale University, and a BA from Baylor University.

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's seventh seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

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Eric Morris Practitioner in Residence, International Policy Studies, Stanford University, and United Nations Recovery Coordinator for Aceh and Nias (2005-2007) Speaker
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At the end of the 1990s, Indonesia seemed on the brink of state collapse and fragmentation. The specter of collapse has subsided. But the country has undergone fragmentation of a less obvious and more incremental sort: a proliferation of sub-national jurisdictions. Since 1999 the number of provinces in Indonesia has increased from 26 to 33 and the number of districts has risen from 290 to nearly 450. In light of the previous and long-standing relative stability in the numbers of provinces and districts, this trend is quite puzzling. What is the source of this newfound territorial reorganization? What are its implications? Ehito Kimura will argue that the fracturing cannot be explained in exclusively national or local terms. He will focus instead on what he calls "vertical coalitions" tied together by political actors moving up and down across national, regional, and local levels.

Ehito Kimura is working on a manuscript based on his doctoral dissertation on the changing political geography of Indonesia. He lived in Indonesia from 2004 to 2005 and in Thailand from 1997 to 1999. His Ph.D is from the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He also has degrees from Georgetown University (BSFS) and Yale University (MA).

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's sixth seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-9747 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein Fellow
Ehito.JPG PhD

Ehito Kimura is a Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow at Shorenstein APARC for

2006-2007. He studied at Georgetown University (BSFS), Yale University

(MA), and University of Wisconsin-Madison (PhD). He is currently on

leave from University of Hawaii-Manoa where he is assistant professor

of political science. Dr. Kimura is interested in nexus of Southeast

Asian politics and comparative political change.

He is currently working on a book based on his dissertation examining

the politics of diversity in newly democratic states. His focus is on

Indonesia's recent transition to democracy and the factors influencing

changes in domestic territorial boundaries. He is also interested in

issues of ethnicity and identity, political economy, and regionalism.

Ehito Kimura Speaker
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