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Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan discusses the Okinawa base issue

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The presence of U.S. Marines in Okinawa is a longstanding friction point between allies the United States and Japan. Michael H. Armacost, who served as U.S. Ambassador to Japan from 1989 to 1993, spoke with the Asahi Shimbun about this issue, and about the alliance in recent years.
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Children play at an Okinawan beach at the close of day, July 2008.
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Nuclear weapons' future ripe for discussion

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The supercommittee's failure to reach an agreement on debt reduction will probably result in unexpected reductions of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. That possibility concerns the defense establishment, but it also presents an opportunity: It might finally be possible to have an honest debate about the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. strategy and the prospect for further arms reductions.

Before moving ahead with this conversation, though, it is critical to review and debunk three misguided ideas about nuclear weapons.

The first is that our nuclear world is safe and stable and that all we need to do now is prevent other nations from acquiring nuclear weapons. Though it is undoubtedly true that the U.S. stockpile is safer than ever, the dangers are far from over. Nuclear terrorism remains a threat. Mistakes are possible, too. In just one example, in August 2007, six nuclear warheads disappeared for two days between North Dakota's Minot and Louisiana's Barksdale Air Force bases.

What's more, unsafe nuclear weapons elsewhere remain a major threat. Tensions between nuclear India and Pakistan, the security of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal and the future of the North Korean nuclear weapons program all suggest that the commitment to making U.S. weapons more reliable and secure will not solve the problem.

The second piece of nuclear mythology is that nuclear disarmament has never taken place and never will. Put slightly differently, it is the idea that nuclear history is proliferation history. But nuclear disarmament is far from unprecedented. South Africa, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan all disarmed. Many nuclear-capable states chose to pursue security without nuclear weapons because policymakers recognized these weapons would endanger rather than protect them. Sweden went down the nuclear path and then decided against it in the late 1960s.

Germany had a nuclear weapons program during World War II but became a law-abiding, non-nuclear member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Japan had two nuclear weapons programs during the war and accumulated a significant quantity of plutonium; since then, its authorities thought about restarting a weapons program four times but decided against it.

In each of those cases, most analysts did not believe that giving up nuclear weapons ambitions was possible. They were wrong, and today we all are glad these countries chose the path they did.

The third misguided concept is that reducing the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal will lead to proliferation. Those who believe this think that countries that no longer feel protected by U.S. nuclear weapons will start building their own to protect themselves. Although this might have some validity, it should be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Historically, many of the states that have disarmed or given up their nuclear-weapon ambitions - including every non-nuclear nation outside of NATO - have done so despite the absence of a nuclear-security guarantee.

On the other hand, states determined to get the bomb, such as the United Kingdom and France, have done so despite security guarantees. Finally, this argument assumes that the role of nuclear weapons in future alliances and geopolitical relationships will be as important as it was in the past. This might be true, but it cannot be considered a fact. It is just a bet on the future and a set of policy priorities.

In 2007, "the four horsemen" - Henry Kissinger, Sam Nunn, William Perry and George Shultz - wrote a highly influential opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal arguing that relying on nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence has become "increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective." Coming from former Cold Warriors from both sides of the political aisle, it legitimized the goal of a world without nuclear weapons and challenged the conventional wisdom.

Now policymakers in Washington and candidates on the electoral trail should embrace the issue, and begin a real conversation with the electorate about the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. policy rather than allowing that policy to be driven by inertia or budget cuts.

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Japan’s Transforming Political Economy and Finance

A sustained interest of the Japan Studies Program is to analyze Japan’s transforming political economy and finance. Japan experienced one of the fastest growth rates in the world throughout the 20th century. In the 1990s, however, it grew at the slowest rate among advanced industrial countries. Major change occurred during the 1990s, leading new political, social, and economic dynamics during first decade of the 21st century. Corporations were reorganized, new social realities emerged, and major political transitions occurred.

New Era: Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Japan

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This closed-door symposium is co-organized by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the US Embassy in Japan, SPRIE-Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE) of Stanford University, and the University of Tokyo (Science Entrepreneurship and Enterprise Development SEED, Division of University Corporate Relations DUCR). The event in 2012 will focus on new generation Japanese entrepreneurs and the central role of venture capital in Japan's entrepreneurial ecosystem. SPRIE faculty co-director Professor Bill Miller, and SPRIE-STAJE project leader Robert Eberhart will serve as discussants/commentators at the event.

For information about the 2011 Symposium, please click here for the press release by the U.S. Department of State, and here for more details.

The University of Tokyo, Japan

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STAJE 4th Annual Conference: "Japan at the Entrepreneurial Crossroads - What Lies Ahead?"

The 4th annual conference of SPRIE-Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE) will be a two-day event, exchanging ideas on entrepreneruship, institutions, and Japan such as emirical studies, case studies, political and social instituional studies in Japan, and new research methodology including experimental design.

This conference is approriate for working papers for those seeking high quality comments, as well as recently completed papers, and revisions to existing papers.

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Stanford University

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The Obama Administration’s North Korea Policy: An Assessment

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In the fourth and final year of the Obama administration's first term, North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Critics call U.S. policy a "failure." Why did the Obama administration adopt the approach it did? Does the policy have any prospect of eventual success? Is the administration likely to change its approach this year, especially with new leadership in North Korea, or next year, if re-elected? Korean Studies Program associate director David Straub, a former State Department Korea country director, will analyze the people, processes, and parameters of Obama administration policy toward North Korea.

David Straub was named associate director of the Korean Studies Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center on July 1, 2008. Prior to that he was a 2007–08 Pantech Fellow at the Center. An educator and commentator on current Northeast Asian affairs, Straub retired in 2006 from the U.S. Department of State as a senior foreign service officer after a 30-year career focused on Northeast Asian affairs. 

This event is made possible by the generous support from the Koret Foundation.

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David Straub

No longer in residence.

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David Straub was named associate director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) on July 1, 2008. Prior to that he was a 2007–08 Pantech Fellow at the Center. Straub is the author of the book, Anti-Americanism in Democratizing South Korea, published in 2015.

An educator and commentator on current Northeast Asian affairs, Straub retired in 2006 from his role as a U.S. Department of State senior foreign service officer after a 30-year career focused on Northeast Asian affairs. He worked over 12 years on Korean affairs, first arriving in Seoul in 1979.

Straub served as head of the political section at the U.S. embassy in Seoul from 1999 to 2002 during popular protests against the United States, and he played a key working-level role in the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program as the State Department's Korea country desk director from 2002 to 2004. He also served eight years at the U.S. embassy in Japan. His final assignment was as the State Department's Japan country desk director from 2004 to 2006, when he was co-leader of the U.S. delegation to talks with Japan on the realignment of the U.S.-Japan alliance and of U.S. military bases in Japan.

After leaving the Department of State, Straub taught U.S.-Korean relations at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in the fall of 2006 and at the Graduate School of International Studies of Seoul National University in spring 2007. He has published a number of papers on U.S.-Korean relations. His foreign languages are Korean, Japanese, and German.

David Straub Associate Director of Korean Studies Program (KSP) Speaker the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Energy Geopolitics in East Asia: Challenges for South Korea

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Energy geopolitics in East Asia have reflected strong competition among major energy consuming countries (China, Japan and Korea) despite the alleged necessity of energy cooperation to cope with uncertainties in the global energy market and to prevent potential conflicts regarding energy supply. Lacking abundant energy resources, South Korea has to face the tough challenges of energy supply and climate change as well as the North Korean energy and nuclear crisis. In recent years, South Korea has actively pursued overseas energy development to guarantee the stable procurement of hydrocarbon energy resources and introduced a Green Growth policy to deal with the challenges of climate change and clean energy. The Green Growth policy symbolizes a paradigm shift to cope with climate change, fossil fuel depletion, and global economic recession by creating new engines of economic growth through green technology and clean energy. Based on strong political support and policy measures, it has showed noticeable progress in a short period of time, but the transition from a hydrocarbon-based to a renewable-based economy faces enormous uncertainties and challenges. South Korea has also been active in participating East Asian energy cooperation, which is also important in dealing with the serious North Korean energy crisis.

Jae-Seung Lee is a visiting scholar with the Korean Studies Program (KSP) for the 2011–12 academic year, and he is also currently a professor of international studies at Korea University. Before joining the faculty of Korea University, he had served as a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.  His current research includes energy security and energy diplomacy of Korea.

Jae-Seung Lee has authored a series of books and articles on East Asian energy security. He is a Managing Director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Institute of Sustainable Development (ISD) at Korea University and has organized the Korea Energy Forum (KEF) since 2005. Professor Lee is editor-in-chief of Korea Review of International Studies and serves as a Member of the Policy Advisory Board of the Presidential Secretariat (Foreign and Security Affairs) and Vice Director of Ilmin International Relations Institute (IIRI). Professor Lee holds a BA in political science from Seoul National University and an MA and a PhD in political science from Yale University. He has taught at Yale University, Seoul National University, and Korea University. 

This event is made possible by the generous support from the Koret Foundation.

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Jae-Seung Lee

Shorenstein APARC
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Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Jae-Seung Lee is a visiting scholar with the Korean Studies Program (KSP) for the 2011–12 academic year, and he is also currently a professor of international studies at Korea University. Before joining the faculty of Korea University, he served as a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) and at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

As a scholar in international political economy, Lee has authored a number of books and articles on Korea, East Asia, and Europe. His current research also includes the energy security and energy diplomacy of Korea, among others. During his time with KSP, he will conduct a research project on the geopolitics of East Asian energy relations.

Lee is currently an editor-in-chief of the Korea Review of International Studies and he also serves as a member of the Policy Advisory Board of the Presidential Secretariat (Foreign and Security Affairs) and as vice director of Ilmin International Relations Institute (IIRI). He was selected as an Asia Society Young Leader in 2006 and as a Young Leader by the InterAction Council, a group of former heads-of-state, in 2008. He has contributed op-ed articles to major Korean newspapers and has commented on international affairs for BBC, CNN, and Korean broadcast stations.

Lee holds a BA in political science from Seoul National University (1991), and an MA (1993) and PhD (1998) in political science from Yale University. He also earned a certificate from the Institut D’Etudes Politiques de Paris (1995). He has taught at Yale University and Seoul National University.

 

* His on-line expert interview with World Politics Review on South Korea's energy diplomay is available here.

* His on-line interview with BBC World on the Korean DMZ is available here.

Jae-Seung Lee 2011-2012 Visiting Scholar, Shorenstein APARC; Professor, Division of International Studies, Korea University Speaker
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Japan Studies Program launches inaugural year

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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s (Shorenstein APARC) Japan Studies Program kicked off its inaugural academic year with a lineup of major events and meetings at Stanford and in Japan.

Here are some highlights from the autumn:

Corporate Affiliates Alumni Reunion in Tokyo

In early September, Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliates Program alumni from 1997 to 2011 gathered for a lively reunion in Tokyo. Participants introduced their current positions and jobs, and outlined how their experience at the Center has enhanced their work and life. Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Michael H. Armacost, associate director for research Daniel C. Sneider, and Takahashi Research Associate Kenji E. Kushida hosted the event on behalf of Shorenstein APARC.

U.S.-Japan Strategic Exchange with Japanese Policymakers

On October 10, a delegation of Japanese Diet members from several different parties and representatives from the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the San Francisco Consulate of Japan visited Shorenstein APARC. The delegates exchanged views with Stanford and Center scholars, focusing on the U.S. political situation and the strategic environment facing Japan. David Kennedy, a Stanford professor of American history, presented a luncheon keynote on U.S. politics.

Japanese Academic Delegation Speaks with Shorenstein APARC China and Japan Experts

A delegation of Japanese scholars spoke on October 11 with Shorenstein APARC experts on China and Japan. The scholars were part of a group invited by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), and included professors from Aoyama Gakuin University and research fellows at JIIA. Shorenstein APARC participants included China scholars Scott Rozelle, Jean C. Oi, and Xueguang Zhou along with international relations and Japan experts Phillip Lipscy and Kenji Kushida. 

Post-Catastrophe Japan: Economic and Political Prospects  

Richard Katz, editor of the Oriental Economist Report, gave a seminar on November 14 about the broader global economic and political prospects for Japan after the March 11 triple disaster. He also presented lessons from Japan for U.S. policymakers fighting the current slump.

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Corporate Affiliates Program Visiting Fellows from 1997 to 2011, Tokyo.
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Economic, social, and security implications of East Asia's demographic transition

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Asia’s demographic landscape is changing in a big way. Japan’s population is shrinking, as people are living longer, marrying later, and choosing to have fewer or no children. Korea is moving in the same direction, while China and the countries of South and Southeast Asia face similar issues in the coming decades. As this takes place, more people are moving to, from, and across Asia for job, education, and marriage opportunities.

These demographic changes present policymakers with new challenges and questions, including: What are the interrelationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth? How will it impact security? What are the effects on employment policy and other national institutions? How have patterns of migration affected society and culture? What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from one another to improve the policy response to population aging?

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) focused its third annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue on addressing the possible economic, social, and security implications of Asia’s unprecedented demographic transition. Thirty scholars, government figures, journalists, and other opinion leaders from Stanford, the United States, and countries across the Asia-Pacific region gathered September 8–9, 2011, in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss key issues related to the question of demographic change.

Comparative Demographics and Policy Responses

Japan’s shrinking workforce calls for labor policy changes, stressed presenters during the opening Dialogue session. Stanford Center for Population Research director Shripad Tuljapurkar stated that Japan’s population could decrease by as much as 25 percent and that its government has a window of approximately 40 years in which to act. In describing Japan’s demographic shift, Ogawa Naohiro, director of the Nihon University Population Research Institute, also emphasized the importance of good financial education for individuals as life expectancy increases.

Macroeconomic Implications

Economists Masahiko Aoki and Cai Fang addressed changes to East Asia’s economic landscape. Aoki, an FSI senior fellow, spoke of the transition from agriculture to industry that has occurred at different stages in Japan, Korea, and China and of the increasing cost of human capital that has followed. Cai, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences labor and population expert, stated that after several decades of industrial growth China is now at a turning point in terms of its global competitiveness.

Labor and Migration

Scott Rozelle, codirector of Stanford’s Rural Education Action Program (REAP), opened the next day with a discussion of China’s rural human capital investment. Offering Mexico’s situation after the mid-1990s peso crisis as a comparison, he emphasized the immediate need for allocating more health and education resources to China’s rural areas. Ton-Nu-Thi Ninh, president of Tri Viet University, discussed the socioeconomic and cultural aspects of labor migration—a growing trend in Asia—and advocated that governments factor it more into their foreign policy development.

Security

The security impact of Asia’s demographic transition will take several decades to understand, but it will eventually lead to the need for significant policy re-strategization, stated Yu Myung Hwan, Korea’s former minister of foreign affairs and trade, during the closing Dialogue session. He suggested focusing on impacts that could result from the major changes taking place in fertility, urbanization, and migration. Concurring with many of Yu’s views, Stanford’s Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Michael H. Armacost also noted the current lack of literature on the link between security and demography. In addition, he emphasized the need for the United States to continue pursuing good relations with China and Russia during this time of transition.

“Low fertility rates are not because women are all out there working. In fact, a number of countries have lots of females in the labor force and have achieved a resurgence of fertility. Achieving work-life balance is important, not just for women, but for men as well, and might play a role in lessening the gap in life expectancy between men and women.”

-Karen Eggleston, Director, Asia Health Policy Program

Throughout the event, Dialogue participants unanimously acknowledged the serious challenges facing policymakers as they look for ways to meet the evolving needs of individuals, families, and organizations. The demographic outlook is not entirely gloomy, however. Numerous participants also pointed to the potential for exciting advances and innovations in technology and international cooperation.

As in previous years, the event concluded with a lively public symposium and reception attended by students from Stanford and local universities, Shorenstein APARC guests and affiliates, and members of the general public. Speaking during the reception, Kadokawa Daisaku, mayor of Kyoto, and Kim Hyong-O, member and former speaker of the Korean National Assembly, acknowledged the significance of the Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue as a forum for addressing issues of mutual importance to the United States and Asia.

The Dialogue is made possible through the generosity of the City of Kyoto, FSI, and Yumi and Yasunori Kaneko. To read the final report from this and previous Dialogues, visit the event series page below.

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A worker stands on steel rods at a superblock construction site in Jakarta in February 2010. Increasing urbanization is one of many aspects of Asia's demographic change.
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