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Gi-Wook Shin, director of Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, says, "history education is very susceptible to national sentiments and apt to have politically explosive potential because it is closely related to the national identity of a country." "Balanced history education is needed to resolve the 'Northeast Asia paradox,' a quandary highlighted by intense territorial disputes and conflicting historical perceptions despite close economic, cultural and social exchanges between the regional countries."

The complete article is available at Korea Focus, December 2013.

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2012 China anti Japanese demonstrations in Beijing logo Wikipedia; author (Voice of America), September 23, 2012
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Susan Athey, Professor of Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business, discusses how data-driven organizations still need to exercise intuition and judgement to ensure that short-term results don't override long-term interests. Athey moderated a panel on "Generating Value from Big Data and Analytics" with panelists from Baidu, LinkedIn, and Foursquare at the fourth annual China 2.0 conference hosted by Stanford Graduate School of Business on October 3, 2013.

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The digital information technology (IT) revolution currently underway is profoundly reshap- ing economic activity, influencing politics, and transforming societies around the world. It is also forcing a reconceptualization of the global and local: many of the technologies, platforms, and fundamental disruptions are global in nature, but national or local contexts critically influence the uses and effects of IT.

The Asia-Pacific region provides a fascinating array of countries for examination of the political, economic, and sociocultural effects of digital media on the modern world. Economies range from developing to advanced. Governments include varied democracies as well as one-party regimes. The press enjoys relative freedom in some countries, undergoes limited constraints in others, and is tightly controlled in a few. Populations range from dense to sparse, and from diverse to relatively homogenous.

Held September 12–13, 2013, in Kyoto, Japan, the fifth Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue focused on the catalyzing effects of digital media for change in the Asia-Pacific. Four major themes were addressed:

  1. Digital Media versus Traditional Media
  2. Digital Media and Political Change in Asia
  3. Social Change and Economic Transformation
  4. Digital Media and International Relations
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Syncretism front final SYNCRETISM front cover

Japan’s first decade of the twenty-first century was both disappointing and bewildering, producing wildly contrasting evaluations. Many have come to call this period the “second lost decade,” characterized by policy paralysis and overall lackluster economic growth.

For those studying Japan more closely, however, the same decades reveal nothing short of a broad transformation in numerous core tenets of Japan’s postwar political economy. How can we best capture this transformation?

Each chapter in this volume examines a different aspect of Japan’s political economy within a longer historical trajectory, from multiple angles, to depict a flexible but resilient system. We characterize Japan’s process of change as syncretism—practices foreign, domestic, old and new were selectively adopted, mixed and matched, along the way creating a new and unique hybrid system.

Examination copies: Desk, examination, or review copies can be requested through Stanford University Press

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The Politics of Economic Restructuring and System Reform in Japan

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Kenji E. Kushida
Jean C. Oi
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This paper presents a simulation model based on the growth rate, the inflation rate, and the consumption tax rate in the future. Future tax revenues and fiscal expenditures are projected using regression models estimated from past data. The fiscal situation is called unsustainable if the outstanding amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) becomes higher than the level of private sector financial assets. We focus on the general account of the central government, which is the source of JGB issues. We find that the higher the economic growth, the more likely it is that the fiscal situation is sustainable. When a larger portion of interest income is reinvested in JGBs, the chance is higher that the fiscal situation is sustainable. Most importantly, raising the consumption tax to 20% guarantees fiscal sustainability in most cases. Our analysis shows that without a consumption tax hike beyond the 10% rate, a fiscal crisis will be almost a certainty, even with a real economic growth rate of 2% despite a shrinking labor force. A reasonably quick hike of the consumption tax, namely a hike by 1% a year, up to 20%, combined with high or moderate economic growth rates, seems to keep the economy out of a fiscal crisis, where a moderate growth rate is defined to be generated by a productivity increase per working-age population of 1.9%, which was the average during the Koizumi years.

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Takeo Hoshi
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Historically, in Japan, out-of-court corporate restructurings have played a significant role in disciplining managers in the near-absence of hostile takeover activity and shareholder activism. This paper analyzes management turnover in a large sample of Japanese firms that underwent restructurings between 1981 and 2010. I find that restructurings that happen in later stages of financial distress, and those that are not initiated by the firm itself, are more likely to involve management turnover, as are restructurings in which the firm's main business operations are left intact. Furthermore, in restructurings after the reforms around the year 2000, management turnover is more likely to occur if the local potential managerial labor market is substantial. After controlling for firm characteristics and the firm's initial financial condition, it does not appear that management turnover is associated with an improvement in post-restructuring operating performance--in fact, the effect is significantly negative by estimates that address the non-random nature of management turnover. However, for restructurings led by equity funds, management turnover is associated with a more successful turnaround of the firm's performance. These results suggest that equity funds possess the ability to locate and recruit talented outside managers in a thin market for experienced managers.

 

Michael Furchtgott is an economist interested in corporate finance and governance. His current research investigates Japanese corporate restructurings and the behavior of firms and lenders when financial distress arises.

Furchtgott has completed his PhD in economics at the University of California, San Diego, where his research on corporate financial restatements has demonstrated that firms frequently circumvent laws designed to protect investors.

He holds a BA in economics and mathematics from Columbia University.

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FURGHOTT,_Michael_3x4.jpg PhD

Michael Furchtgott is an economist interested in corporate finance and governance. His current research investigates Japanese corporate restructurings and the behavior of firms and lenders when financial distress arises.

Furchtgott has completed his PhD in economics at the University of California, San Diego, where his research on corporate financial restatements has demonstrated that firms frequently circumvent laws designed to protect investors.

He holds a BA in economics and mathematics from Columbia University.

Michael Furchtgott Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia Speaker Shorenstein APARC
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In this eleventh session of the Strategic Forum, former senior American and South Korean government officials and other leading experts will discuss current developments in the Korean Peninsula and North Korea policy, the future of the U.S.-South Korean alliance, and a strategic vision for Northeast Asia. The session is hosted by the Korean Studies Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in association with Korea National Diplomatic Academy, a top South Korean think tank.

PARTICIPANTS

United States:

Michael Armacost, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Karl Eikenberry, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

Siegfried Hecker, Professor, Management Science and Engineering; former co-director, CISAC, Stanford University

Thomas Fingar, Distinghished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

T.J. Pempel, Professor, Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

Gi-Wook Shin, Professor, Sociology; Director, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Daniel Sneinder, Associate Director for Research, Shorenstein APARC

David Straub, Associate Director, Korean Studies Program, Shorentein APARC

Kathleen Stephens, 2013–14 Koret Fellow, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC

Seoul, Korea

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Reports of the detention and eventual release by North Korean authorities of an 85-year-old Palo Alto retiree, Merrill Newman, spurred a wave of media interest. Newman, a Korean War veteran, had decided to go on a tour of North Korea, apparently in part to revisit the place where he had served more than 60 years ago.

He was accompanied by a fellow retiree, Bob Hamrdla, also a Palo Alto resident. According to accounts provided by Hamrdla, Newman was taken off the plane as he was leaving the country after a nine-day tour. During his detention, Newman was videotaped reading an apology, in which he accepted responsibility for “hostile acts” and requested forgiveness.

After 42 days in custody, Newman was released and arrived back in the United States on Dec. 7. Newman was greeted by his family and spoke briefly to reporters, recognizing the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and the Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang for securing his release, before heading home. The full details that led to Newman’s detention still remain unclear.

Both local and national media rushed to understand these events, first reported in detail by the San Jose Mercury News (Nov. 20). Reporters sought out expertise at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, speaking to Associate Director for Research Daniel Sneider and to Korean Studies Program Associate Director David Straub, who both have long experience with Korea and have been frequently cited as experts.

Sneider was cited in newspaper reports in the San Jose Mercury News (Nov. 20) and the Los Angeles Times; was interviewed on local radio, and also interviewed for broadcast on the evening news programs of the CBS, ABC and NBC networks local affiliates. Straub was quoted by NK News, a leading agency specializing in coverage of North Korea, also cited by the Washington Post. Most recently, Sneider was cited in the San Jose Mercury News (Dec. 7) upon the confirmation of Newman’s release.

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 Abstract:

That the Cairo Conference has been overshadowed by the wartime summits at Teheran and Yalta is understandable given the start of the Cold War in Europe almost immediately after the German surrender in May 1945. To understand the collapse of relations between the Anglo-American allies on the one hand and the Soviet Union on the other, it is important to look at the conferences at Teheran and Yalta, the interactions between Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin, the understandings they reached, and their misunderstandings. That said, the Cairo Conference also marked an important turning point in the relations between the allies in the war against Japan: China, Great Britain, and the United States, the consequences of which were critical to the defeat of Japan and the post-war order in East Asia.

The interaction of Churchill, Roosevelt, and Chiang in Cairo is every bit as compelling from a human interest perspective as the interplay between Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin at Teheran and Yalta, albeit less studied, and offers a sobering reminder of what can happen when policy is made at the very highest level by individuals who know relatively little about the culture of their partners and are not able to separate myths and stereotypes from realities. Summit conferences may make for good theater, but do not necessarily result in good policies as an examination of the Cairo Conference reveals.

Each of the parties at the Cairo Conference came with their own agendas, frequently contradictory. Generalissimo and Madame Chiang hoped to obtain a commitment to make the China-Burma-India theater of war the focal point in the war against Japan, a matter not only of strategic importance to them but also of poetic justice. They also sought to redress grievances against Japan and Great Britain in the post-war era. Roosevelt hoped to buoy the ego and spirits of Chiang and to insure that the Kuomintang regime would not make a separate peace with Japan thus allowing the Japanese to redeploy the nearly one million troops they had stationed in China. Churchill had no real interest in meeting with Chiang and his wife at Cairo at all, but felt obliged to humor Roosevelt and to make sure that no agreements would be reached in Cairo that would in any way prejudice British colonial interests in Southeast Asia in the post-war era. Given these conflicting agendas, it is no wonder that none of the participants would be satisfied with the results of their labors in Cairo.

 

Speaker Bio:

Ronald Heiferman is Professor of History and Director of the Asian Studies Program at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Connecticut, and a Fellow of Berkeley College at Yale University. He has also taught at Connecticut College and the City University of New York. Dr. Heiferman was educated at Yale and New York University (Ph.D.). Professor Heiferman has authored or co-authored more than a dozen books, including Flying Tigers (New York: Ballantine, 1971), World War II (London: Hamlyn, 1973), Wars of the Twentieth Century (London: Hamlyn, 1974), The Rise and Fall of Imperial Japan (New York: Military Press, 1981), the Rand-McNally Encyclopedia of World II (New York: Rand-McNally, 1978), and The Cairo Conference of 1943: Roosevelt, Churchill, Chiang Kai-shek and Madame Chiang (McFarland, 2011). His latest book, The Chinese Idyll of Franklin D. Roosevelt, will be published in 2014. Professor Heiferman was a Yale-Lilly Fellow in 1978, a Yale-Mellon Fellow in 1984, and has also been the recipient of five National Endowment for the Humanities Fellowships: Duke University (1974), University of Chicago (1977), Stanford University (1980), Harvard University (1987), and the University of Texas (1991).

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Ronald Heiferman Professor of History and Director of the Asian Studies Program Speaker Quinnipiac University
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