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Over the past 35 years of the reform period Beijing has tried to make its state-owned enterprises more efficient and competitive. In the early 1990s it adopted a strategy modeled closely on the Western corporation and the equity and debt capital markets that support its operations. But China's big SOEs have demonstrated more and more independence despite outright economic and ownership control by the government and the Communist Party. And this independence has not led to greater efficiencies or, arguably, even competitiveness. Instead the National Champions represent monopolistic economic and political power. Today China's new leadership confronts the National Champions seeking to regain control over the state's principal assets. How did this happen and what can be done to reassert Beijing's rights?  

Carl E. Walter worked in China and its financial sector for over 20 years and actively participated in many of the country’s financial reform efforts. While at Credit Suisse First Boston he played a major role in China’s groundbreaking first overseas IPO in 1992. Later at Morgan Stanley he was a member of senior management at China International Capital Corporation, China’s first and most successful investment bank. While there he supported a number of groundbreaking domestic and international stock and bond underwritings for major Chinese corporations. More recently at JPMorgan he was China Chief Operating Officer and Chief Executive Officer of its China banking subsidiary. During this time Carl helped build a pioneering domestic security, risk and currency trading operation. In his spare time he enjoyed driving his Jeep to distant provinces.

A long time resident of Beijing before his recent return to the United States, Carl is fluent in Mandarin and holds a PhD from Stanford University and a graduate certificate from Peking University. In Spring 2013, Carl returned to Stanford as a visiting scholar at the Shorenstein-Asia Pacific Research Center, FSI. He is the co-author of Red Capitalism: the fragile financial foundations of China’s extraordinary rise, which has been published in Chinese in China. His earlier book, Privatizing China: inside China’s stock markets, was also published in China and, like Red Capitalism, contributed to the government’s policy debate.

This event is co-sponsored with CEAS and is part of the China under Xi Jinping series.

Philippines Conference Room

Carl E. Walter Former CEO Speaker JPMorgan Chase Bank China Co Ltd.
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We use retrospectively reported data on smoking behavior of residents of Mainland China and Taiwan to compare and contrast patterns in smoking behavior over the life-course of individuals in these two regions. Because we construct the life-history of smoking for all survey respondents, our data cover an exceptionally long period of time – up to fifty years in both samples. During this period, both societies experienced substantial social and economic changes. The two regions developed at much different rates and the political systems of the two areas evolved in very different ways. More importantly, governments in the two areas set policies that caused the flow of information about the health risks of smoking to differ across the regions and over time. We exploit these differences, using counts of articles in newspapers from 1951 to present, to explore whether and how the arrival of information affected life-course smoking decisions of residents in the two areas. We also present evidence that suggests how prices/taxes and key historical events might have affected decisions to smoke.

Dean Lillard received his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago in 1991. From 1991 to 2012, he was a faculty member and senior research associate in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University. In August 2012 he joined the Department Human Sciences at Ohio State University as an Associate Professor. He is Director and Project Manager of the Cross-National Equivalent File study that produces cross-national data. He is a member of the American Economics Association, the Population Association of America, the International Association for Research on Income and Wealth, the International Health Economics Association, the American Society for Health Economics, a Research Associate at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, Germany, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He serves on the advisory board of the Danish National Institute for Social Research in Copenhagen, Denmark and the Cross-National Studies: Interdisciplinary Research and Training Program – a collaborative program run by the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), and together with the Mershon Centre at OSU.

Dean Lillard's current research focuses on health economics, the economics of schooling, and international comparisons of economic behavior. His research in health economics is primarily focused on the economics of the marketing and consumption of cigarettes and alcohol. His research on the economics of schooling includes studies of direct effects of policy on educational outcomes and on the role that education plays in other economic behaviors such as smoking, production of health, and earnings. His cross-national research ranges widely from comparisons of the role that obesity plays in determining labor market outcomes to comparisons of smoking behavior cross-nationally.

Philippines Conference Room

Dean R. Lillard Associate Professor, Department Human Sciences Speaker Ohio State University
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CISAC and FSI Senior Fellows Siegfried Hecker and William J. Perry write in this New York Times OpEd that Iran has little to show for its 50-year pursuit of a nuclear program. They argue Iran should forego its attempts to build the bomb and concentrate on learning how to build better nuclear power plants, which would aid the country's beleaguered economy and promote international cooperation.

"Japan and South Korea became leading global reactor vendors by doing so," they write. "This could constitute a pragmatic and honorable choice. Such a solution offers the best opportunities for technical and industrial development with greatest economic gain and and least danger of proliferation."

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Many believe that successful Chinese internet firms benefit from a lot of eyeballs and traffic, but still lack a substantial monetization model. A panel at the China 2.0 conference held by Stanford Graduate School of Business on October 3, 2013 challenged this preconception and offered insights into the globalization of Chinese internet and digital companies, the development of China’s entrepreneurial ecosystem, and the shift to mobile and its implications.The “VC Outlook on Internet and Digital Media” panel brought together Jenny Lee of GGV Capital, Annabelle Long of Bertelsmann Asia Investments, and Raymond Yang of WestSummit Capital in a discussion moderated by David Chao of DCM.

Bay-jing, a combination of “Beijing” and “Bay Area,” references the increasing interaction between the two sides of the Pacific, and encapsulates the current dynamic of globalization affecting Chinese internet companies. Tencent’s Weixin was renamed WeChat and features soccer star Lionel Messi in its ads for international markets, which counted more than 100 million users outside China in August 2013.

Bay-jing, according to Yang, does not only refer to more users for Chinese companies in the U.S. and globally. It also alludes to the flow of ideas and investments between China and Silicon Valley. Alibaba recently announced its intention to set up an office in San Francisco for investing in American companies while leading a $206 million investment round in ShopRunner, an American online shopping website. Read more...

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A group of data scientists from Baidu, Foursquare, and LinkedIn engaged in a wide-ranging discussion at the annual China 2.0 conference on October 3, 2013. Moderated by Susan Athey, Professor of Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business, the conversation spanned the three-waves of Big Data: search, social, and mobile. The “Generating Value from Big Data and Analytics” panel honed in on how Big Data is improving business decisions and how companies are creating data-driven cultures to deal with the new realities of information technologies. Read more...

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Stanford-Sasakawa Peace Foundation New Channels Dialogue 2014

Energy Challenge and Opportunities for the United States and Japan

 

February 13, 2014

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and Organized by Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) and Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (S-APARC) in Association with U.S.-Japan Council

 

Japan Studies Program at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University has launched a three-year project from 2013 to create new channels of dialogue between experts and leaders of younger generations from the United States, mostly from the West Coast, and Japan under a name of "New Channels: Reinvigorating U.S.-Japan Relations," with the goal of reinvigorating the bilateral relationship through the dialogue on 21st century challenges faced by both nations, with a grant received from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

The dialogue would be structured to examine the new challenges of the 21st century, in particular, economic growth and employment creation; innovation and entrepreneurship; energy; and East Asian regionalism, including regional security issues, with the aim of developing mutual understanding and constructing a new relationship for cooperation in dealing with 21st century challenges through the dialogue between scholars, entrepreneurs, and policy makers from the two countries. We are hoping that this multi-year initiative will generate a network of trans-Pacific expertise as a vital supplement to existing avenue of communications.

Given the recent dramatic changes in energy environments in both countries, such as shale gas developments in the U.S, and after Fukushima challenges in Japan, this year, as an inaugural year, we will be examining energy issues. Panel discussions open to the public, with the title of "Energy Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. and Japan," will be held on February 13th, followed by a dialogue among invited participants on 14th, at Stanford University with the participation of policy makers, business leaders, scholars, and experts from both countries.

In the panel discussions we will examine following issues:

  1. Discovery of shale gas deposits in various parts of the world has drastically changed the geopolitics of energy.
  2. New technologies for energy production have been creating various challenges to the existing system of energy supply.
  3. As emerging economies grow rapidly, they will demand increasing amount of energy. They face a challenge of creating a sustainable and secure energy supply system.
  4. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, the call for enhancing safety of nuclear power plants has intensified. While public’s trust in nuclear technology wanes, increasing number of nuclear power plants are built in emerging countries. Nuclear energy policy has become politically contentious.
  5. Use of information technology, such as smart grid, is likely to change the ways energy is supplied and distributed.
  6. The world has not found an effective international framework for slowing the global warming and securing reliable energy supply to support economic growth.

We are very pleased that we were able to invite quite impressive participants, policy makers, business leaders, scholars and experts from the two countries, who would appear as panelists in the panel discussions on February 13th.

We expect that through this panel discussion we would be able to define the challenges we are facing, indicate the pathways we should proceed to, and identify the areas for cooperation.

On the following day, February 14th, we will have the dialogue closed to the public discussing issues and possible cooperation between the U.S. and Japan on energy among invited participants.

We hope to publish a summary of conference presentations and the dialogue discussion after the conference.

Bechtel Conference Center

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Donald K. Emmerson
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Is Myanmar ready to lead ASEAN? What are the most critical challenges (both internal and external) that Myanmar will face as the ASEAN chair in 2014?

It is conventional to think of Myanmar as being "tested" by the need to prepare in 2014 for the declaration of the existence of an ASEAN Community by the end of 2015. And that of course is a plausible focus for anyone who would reply to the given questions. But it might also be interesting to think beyond ASEAN's schedule and ask what "black swans" could be swimming, e.g. in the South China Sea. Beijing has stated that its declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over contested parts of the East China Sea could be repeated for other airspaces, including presumably the huge block of air above the South China Sea.

So far ASEAN has managed to keep a low (and divided) profile on the imbroglio over who owns what in the South China Sea. Myanmar, if it is chairing ASEAN when China announces its South China Sea ADIZ, will face pressure from inside ASEAN to do more than merely reassert faith in the delayed segue from a Declaration of Conduct to a Code of Conduct.

Various scenarios are of course possible, including a decision in Beijing not to pivot southward, at least not until the anger over its eastward ADIZ has subsided. But one should not assume that the success of Myanmar-in-the-chair in 2014 will be a function solely of its ability to help welcome a "white swan," i.e. to oversee preparations for celebrating the inauguration of a regional community to which no one really objects.

This commentary was originally carried by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore) in their bulletin, Multilateral MattersIssue 10, January 2014.

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Daniel C. Sneider writes that relations between South Korea and Japan have noticeably deteriorated in the past few months. After a recent trip to Seoul, Sneider postures that diplomatic ties may be at their lowest since 1965. While the United States has attempted to promote dialogue, its hesitant intervention is unlikely to change the overall dynamic of the Japan-Korea relationship. Sneider suggests a more active U.S. mediation role, such as appointing a special envoy or negotiating reparations, may better encourage reconciliation and normalization of relations.

This commentary was produced by The National Bureau of Asia Research (NBR) and originally was published on the NBR website (www.nbr.org). NBR retains all rights to this material in all languages.

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The historic rivalry between China and Japan, the source of two wars since the late 19th century and the catalyst for the wider war in the Pacific, is once again a matter of growing concern to scholars and policy makers. Why does the past continue to shape the present relationship between these two Asian powers? And can they build a new, more forward-looking, relationship? We examine these and other questions in this seminar series.

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In an interview with Korean media, Gi-Wook Shin, director of Shorenstein APARC, and Kathleen Stephens, 2013-14 Koret Fellow, emphasize the increased role of the United States in peace and security issues in Northeast Asia, and suggest Park administration implement "Peace Process" through humanitarian projects engaging North-South Korean cooperation.

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