Shorenstein APARC's Korean Studies Program, begun in September 2000 and led by Gi-Wook Shin, features weekly luncheon seminars on Korea-related issues, from war reporting to health care to democracy. Heavily attended by students and faculty alike, the series is often standing-room-only.

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This seminar is part of Shorenstein APARC's Korea Luncheon Seminar Series, sponsored by the Korean Studies Program. The luncheon is free and open to the public, but RSVPs are required. Please RSVP to Okky Choi by 12 noon on Wednesday, November 12 if you wish to attend and have lunch reserved for you.

Phillipines Conference Room

Jung-sun Park Assistant Professor, Asian Pacific Studies California State University
Seminars
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This seminar is part of Shorenstein APARC's Korea Luncheon Seminar Series, sponsored by the Korean Studies Program. The luncheon is free and open to the public, but RSVPs are required. Please RSVP to Okky Choi by 12 noon on Wednesday, October 29 if you wish to attend and have lunch reserved for you.

Phillipines Conference Room

John Duncan Professor, East Asian Language and Culture University of California, Los Angeles
Seminars
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This seminar is part of Shorenstein APARC's Korea Luncheon Seminar Series, sponsored by the Korean Studies Program. The luncheon is free and open to the public, but RSVPs are required. Please RSVP to Okky Choi by 12 noon on Wednesday, October 8 if you wish to attend and have lunch reserved for you. Chiho Sawada received his Ph.D. from Harvard in East Asian Languages and Civilizations, earned his B.A. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego, and did graduate research at Seoul National University and University of Tokyo.

Phillipines Conference Room

Chiho Sawada Korean Studies Research Fellow APARC
Seminars
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The Oksenberg Lecture honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001) longtime member of Shorenstein APARC, senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for International Studies, and an authority on China. Distinguished scholar, mentor to generations of students, senior government official, and a prominent force shaping American attitudes toward Asia, Professor Oksenberg was consistently outspoken about the need for the United States to engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Lecture recognizes, annually, a distinguished individual who has helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.

The Shorenstein Forum, which hosts this annual event, was established at the Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) in 1998, through the generosity of Walter H. Shorenstein. The Forum convenes policymakers, executives, journalists, and others who shape outcomes across Asia.

George P. Shultz has had a distinguished career in government, in academia, and in the world of business. He is one of a handful of individuals who have held four different federal cabinet posts; he has taught at three of this country's greatest universities; and for eight years he was president of a major engineering/construction company.

Bechtel Conference Center

George P. Shultz 60th Secretary of State and Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow Hoover Institution
Lectures
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8:30 AM, Bechtel Conference Center, First Floor, Encina Hall

WELCOME

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

KEYNOTE SPEECH: FROM SILICON VALLEY TO SHANGHAI: The Information Age Opens To Asia

James Morgan, CEO, Applied Materials, Inc.

CRISIS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

INDIA AS A DESTINATION FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS PROCESS OUTSOURCING: Key Factors and Trends

Rafiq Dossani, Senior Research Scholar, Shorenstein APARC

SOUTHEAST ASIA: A Region at Risk

Donald Emmerson, Senior Fellow, IIS

JAPAN'S PROLONGED ECONOMIC SLUMP: Explanations and Implications

Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, IIS

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

ASIA'S EMERGING HOTBEDS FOR INNOVATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow, IIS

William F. Miller, Senior Fellow Emeritus, IIS

Marguerite Gong Hancock, Associate Director, Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation & Entrepreneurship

ABOUT THE ASIA/PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER

Russell Hancock, Director of Programs, Shorenstein APARC

PLENARY SESSION

CHINA AFTER THE 16TH PARTY CONGRESS

Andrew Walder, Director, Shorenstein APARC

Lawrence Lau, Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economic Development

Jean Oi, William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics

Ramon Myers, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

CLOSING REMARKS

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

Bechtel Conference Center

James Morgan CEO Keynote Speaker Applied Materials
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%people1%, CESP Senior Fellow and Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development is quoted in New York Times, September 6, 2003 article.

The United States needs natural gas. Developing countries many thousands of miles away are willing to supply it. This sleepy beachfront town and other communities along the Gulf of Mexico are likely to become the links between producers and consumers.

Altogether, energy companies are planning to spend more than $100 billion in the next decade to bring gas from developing countries to rich nations, according to PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm. The only way to do it is to supercool the gas so that it condenses into a liquid, which is then compact enough to load onto tankers and send across oceans.

For years, this process was too costly to compete with relatively cheap domestic supplies of natural gas and with imports from Canada. But those supplies are tightening just as the demand for clean-burning gas is soaring. That has led to the most severe gas shortage in the last 25 years and caused domestic gas prices to double this year.

The gap between domestic supply and total demand is forecast to grow significantly over the next 20 years. That has made liquefied natural gas competitive, if only companies can find places that are willing to accept having L.N.G. terminals built nearby. "We've entered the gas age, and there's no turning back if we want a firm supply of a strategically crucial fuel," said Michael S. Smith, an investor who controls Freeport LNG, a Houston company that plans to build a receiving terminal on Quintana Island.

Mr. Smith and his partners, Cheniere Energy and Contango Oil and Gas, both of Houston, expect to begin construction of the terminal early next year on this tiny island about 70 miles south of Houston. The $400 million operation will be able to receive ships full of liquefied natural gas, warming the gas and piping it to a nearby plant owned by the Dow Chemical Company.

Quintana Island's attraction lies not only in its proximity to a plant that uses natural gas as a raw material but also in its location near the center of the nation's energy industry. That, it is hoped, will make political resistance to such projects tepid compared with the safety, aesthetic and environmental concerns in places like Northern California and Massachusetts.

Despite such concerns and worries that large, potentially explosive gas terminals could become terrorist targets, energy companies are eager to import liquefied natural gas. It is a shift that could avoid gas shortages forecast for the future, but could also increase the nation's dependence on foreign energy supplies.

"Just as we're debating the need to diversify our oil supplies, we're faced with an array of challenges to secure reliable and politically stable sources of gas," said David G. Victor, director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University.

More than a dozen projects like the one here are seeking approval from regulators in North America, including several on the Gulf Coast and in the northern Mexican state of Baja California.

The United States is already the world's largest natural gas producer, and domestic production is expected to increase to 28.5 trillion cubic feet in 2020 from 19.1 trillion cubic feet in 2000, according to the Energy Information Administration. Still, demand is expected to far outstrip production, growing to 33.8 trillion cubic feet by 2020 from 22.8 trillion cubic feet in 2000.

The gas to close that gap - more than five trillion cubic feet, a 40 percent increase in 20 years - will have to come largely from outside the United States.

Almost all of America's imported natural gas currently comes by pipeline from Canada. But a growing market for gas within Canada and rapidly depleting Canadian wells are expected to weaken that country's ability to increase exports. Mexico, though believed to have large untapped gas reserves, is mired in nationalist debate over making it easier for foreign financiers and companies to explore for gas.

As a result, Mexico, a power in crude oil, is a growing importer of natural gas - and an attractive base for liquefied natural gas receiving terminals, which cost as much as $700 million to build. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently forecast that the percentage of North America's gas from imports would climb to 26 percent by 2030 from just 1 percent today.

Those imports will come mostly from developing nations like Equatorial Guinea, a former Spanish colony in West Africa where Marathon Oil of Houston plans to build an L.N.G. plant able to serve gas fields throughout the Gulf of Guinea.

Ambitious ventures are also under way in other West African countries, including Angola and Nigeria, where energy companies were recently burning gas escaping from oil drilling operations because there was no ready market for it. In the Middle East, small countries like Oman, a sultanate on the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar, are emerging as important gas powers.

In South America, Trinidad and Tobago has become an early leader in exporting liquefied natural gas, although companies in Bolivia and Peru have had difficulties advancing efforts to export L.N.G. to California. Producers in Indonesia, Malaysia and Russia could step in to supply the West Coast, pushing the Andean countries to the margins of the business.

In some ways, the scramble for natural gas projects resembles the heady early days of the oil industry a century ago. Then, British, Dutch and American investors raced around the world to stake out interests in remote oil fields in the Middle East, Central Asia and the archipelagoes of the Java Sea.

Some regions are considered more promising than others. Industry executives point out that just three countries  Iran, Qatar and Russia  hold more than half of the world's natural gas reserves, inevitably focusing attention on the delicate interplay between politics and commerce in these places.

Russia, with the largest proven reserves, plans to start exporting liquefied natural gas in 2007 with deliveries to Japan. Iran, while off limits to American companies because of trade restrictions by the United States, has attracted Japanese, French, British, Indian and South Korean concerns interested in mounting gas ventures.

There are important differences, however, between past oil booms and the current interest in natural gas. For one thing, studies show the world will be swimming in natural gas supplies while oil reserves are expected to dwindle in the decades ahead. Just one area in Qatar, a monarchy near Saudi Arabia with fewer than a million people, is thought to have enough gas to supply the United States for 40 years, according to a study by Deutsche Bank.

The natural gas industry has to overcome several obstacles before evolving into a vibrant global market. Even with ample supplies there is no market for trading liquefied natural gas, as there is for crude oil. Instead, producers and customers sign long-term contracts, sometimes resulting in significant price differences from one year to the next or from one country to another.

One reason the natural gas market has remained fragmented is because the fuel is difficult and expensive to extract and transport. But these costs are declining, adding to the appeal of gas projects. Lord Browne, the chief executive of BP, said the cost of developing gas liquefaction plants had halved since the 1980's, while shipping costs had also fallen.

Shipbuilders are seeking to meet demand for tankers, with the global gas fleet expected to grow to 193 ships by 2006 from 136 in 2002, according to LNG One World, a gas- shipping information service operated by Drewry International of Britain and Nissho Iwai of Japan.

Natural gas is still not considered as crucial as oil for overall energy security since oil's main use is for transportation and there is no short-term alternative. Natural gas has a variety of important industrial uses, like serving as a raw material for fertilizer and generating electricity.

Still, the growth in demand for liquefied natural gas in the United States is expected to outstrip other parts of the world. It is likely to grow 35 percent in the next five years, compared with 20 percent in other North Atlantic countries and 12 percent worldwide, according to Deutsche Bank. Hence the rush to proceed with projects that supply liquefied natural gas to the United States.

"The world could be consuming more gas than oil by 2025," Philip Watts, the chairman of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group, the large British-Dutch energy company, said in a recent address to industry executives in Tokyo. "We must be prepared for growing geopolitical turbulence and volatility in an increasingly interdependent world."

The United States has only five terminals capable of receiving L.N.G., including one in Puerto Rico. Almost 20 are on the drawing board, but opposition to the terminals has already prevented the start of work on several of them. Earlier this year, for instance, Shell and Bechtel Enterprises shelved a plan to build a terminal about 30 miles north of San Francisco because of stiff public opposition.

California remains perhaps the most difficult place in the country to gain approval for gas-receiving terminals. This has encouraged imaginative proposals like one last month from BHP Billiton, Australia's largest energy company, for a $600 million floating terminal 20 miles off the coast of Oxnard in the southern part of the state. It remains to be seen whether any of the California projects will be built.

An air of resignation hangs over even the critics of the plan to build the terminal on Quintana, which is scheduled to start operating by 2007. Officials from Freeport LNG have told residents that they expect to make more than $1 million a year in tax payments to the city, a substantial sum for a community of 40 homes that is the smallest municipality in Texas.

At the Jetties, a restaurant on the island's edge overlooking the brown water of the Gulf of Mexico, the walls are plastered with warnings of the perceived dangers of receiving tankers full of potentially combustible gas from far-flung parts of the world. But the restaurant's employees seem to believe that the terminal will be built, inevitably changing the island's easygoing atmosphere.

"People come out here to drink beer on the beach and look at the birds and the gulf," said Dana Difatta, a cook at the restaurant. "Imagine what they'll think when they're staring at some huge vats holding natural gas. Will they be horrified or relieved?"

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Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou will give his only public address in Silicon Valley at Stanford University. Following a welcome by Stanford Provost John Etchemendy, Dr. Ma will speak on Taipei's Changing Role in the Global IT Industry. Mayor Ma's speech is hosted by the Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE), dedicated to international and interdisciplinary research on the world's high technology regions.

About Ma Ying-jeou

Born in Hong Kong in 1950, Ma Ying-jeou was raised in Taipei, Taiwan and received law degrees National Taiwan University, NYU, and Harvard. Dr. Ma began his career by working in Boston and on Wall Street, and returned to Taiwan in 1981 to serve in the Presidential Office. He has had a distinguished career of government service, including being appointed Deputy Secretary-General for international affairs of the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) at age 33, the youngest ever in that party. In December 1998, he won Taipei's mayoral election, unseating the popular incumbent mayor Chen Shui-bian. In 2002, he was re-elected in a landslide, winning 64.1 percent of the votes cast. During this visit to Silicon Valley, Mayor Ma will focus on Taipei's role in global high technology industries, and will meet with university and high technology company leaders.

Bechtel Conference Center

The Honorable Ma Ying-jeou Mayor of Taipei, Taiwan
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On the eve of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), with the aid of border policies, China was the second largest corn exporter in the world. During the time prior to accession, China's corn prices were estimated to be more than 30 percent above world market prices (Huang, Rozelle and Chang, 2003). China's government explicitly admitted to providing subsidies for corn exports of up to $US35 per metric, which accounted for almost all of the protection that corn producers in China were receiving. During the late 1990s and through 2001, with such high subsidies the nation's exporters were able to sell around 5 million metric tons (mmts) annually into world markets (Gale, 2003). Most of the shipments, especially in the 2000 and 2001, were sent to Korea and Malaysia. With such large shipments, the exports of other nations in the world (especially those from the US that traditionally was Korea's main supplier of feed grains) were displaced.

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US Grains Council
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Scott Rozelle
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