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Venture capitalist, attorney and educator Michael Korver opened SPRIE's spring seminar series on new post-bubble patterns of entrepreneurship in Japan. Korver, a managing partner in Japan's Global Venture Capital, spoke on how he has seen venture capital evolve there in light of his own firm's experiences.

Korver argued that despite a number of problems surrounding the venture capital situation in Japan--a surplus of capital overwhelmingly from large entities in the financial services sector, low perceptions of entrepreneurial activity, and a lack of "high growth expectation" entrepreneurial activity--Tokyo offers a number of advantages to entrepreneurs, perhaps the most significant being Japan's early-adopter, high-consumption domestic market.

"Tokyo is... the perfect incubator for new businesses, ...but the Japanese leaders do not understand that the future of Japan... is absolutely dependent on creating entrepreneurial innovation."
-Michael Korver

He conceded that things have gotten worse since 2006: the backlash from the Livedoor/Takafumi Horie scandal and the resulting drop in the stock market, a 20% withholding tax on investment in Japan from foreign sources and the Ministry of Finance's regulation of industries that use limited partnerships like the venture capital industry have all added up to a drying-up of VC investments and a drop in IPOs in Japan.

Nonetheless, Korver will continue to have Tokyo as his base of operations. "Tokyo is... the perfect incubator for new businesses, ...but the Japanese leaders do not understand that the future of Japan... is absolutely dependent on creating entrepreneurial innovation."

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After visiting the Yongbyon nuclear complex in February, CISAC's Co-Director Siegfried S. Hecker, the former head of Los Alamos National Lab, judges that North Korean officials are working in "good faith" to disable the facilities. But he warns that complete denuclearization presents formidable obstacles.
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How might one think about Chinese power, its dimensions, its effects, and its implications for change in the United States and elsewhere? Dr. David M. Lampton will put China's current trajectory and its conceptions of power in their historical contexts, discuss how China's neighbors are responding to the PRC's growing strength, and explore the vulnerabilities and uncertainties that lie ahead not only for China but the outside world.  
 
Dr. Lampton's work is based on interviews in China, in countries along the PRC's long periphery, and in the United States, as well as extensive documentary research. His book, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money, and Minds, was just published by the University of California Press. 

David M. Lampton, Dean of Faculty, is George and Sadie Hyman Professor and Director of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Senior International Advisor on China for the law firm of Akin Gump. Before assuming the post at SAIS in December 1997, he was president of the National Committee on United States-China Relations in New York City for a decade. Dr. Lampton is the author of numerous books and articles on Chinese domestic and foreign affairs. His most recent book is, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money, and Minds (University of California Press, 2008), and his articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other venues academic and popular. Earlier books and edited volumes include: Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000 (University of California Press, 2001) and (editor) The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform (Stanford University Press, 2001).

Lampton received his PhD and undergraduate degrees from Stanford University and has lived in the Peoples Republic of China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. He has an honorary doctorate from the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Far Eastern Studies and is consultant to the Aspen Institute's Congressional Program, the Kettering Foundation, and various corporations and government agencies.

Levinthal Hall

David M. Lampton George and Sadie Hyman Professor and Director of China Studies Speaker the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Conferences
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In the past, debates regarding the strategic impact of ballistic missile defense were largely theoretical because few systems were ever deployed. This is no longer the case. Today, the United States has begun to deploy BMD systems against short, intermediate and long-range ballistic missiles. Moreover, many of these systems are either transportable or mobile (e.g., the PAC-3, THAAD and Aegis BMD systems) and, hence, can be deployed to protect US allies and US forces overseas. In addition, some foreign governments have expressed interest in deploying such systems, notably Japan. Japan's interest in ballistic missile defense has moved beyond joint research and development and is entering the deployment phase. This raises the issue of the strategic impact of regional BMD systems in Northeast Asia, in particular, whether US/Japanese BMD systems will be effective against emerging North Korean ballistic missile threats and, if so, what impact these BMD systems might have on Chinese ballistic missile capabilities. This seminar will delve into the military/technical capability of regional BMD systems and provide a preliminary assessment of their strategic impact.

Dean Wilkening
directs the Science Program at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. He holds a Ph.D. in physics from Harvard University and spent 13 years at the RAND Corporation prior to coming to Stanford in 1996. His major research interests have been nuclear strategy and policy, arms control, the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, ballistic missile defense, and conventional force modernization. His most recent research focuses on ballistic missile defense and biological terrorism. His work on missile defense focuses on the broad strategic and political implications of deploying national and theater missile defenses, in particular, the impact of theater missile defense in Northeast Asia, and the technical feasibility of boost-phase interceptors for national and theater missile defense. His work on biological weapons focuses on understanding the scientific and technical uncertainties associated with predicting the outcome of hypothetical airborne biological weapon attacks, with the aim of devising more effective civil defenses, and a reanalysis of the accidental anthrax release in 1979 from a Russian military compound in Sverdlovsk with the aim of improving our understanding of the human effects of inhalation anthrax.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Dean Wilkening Speaker
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Masayo Fujimoto
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In recent years, Japan’s traditional employment structure has begun to shift. Historically in Japan, employees expected to work for the same organization throughout their professional lives, gaining experience and garnering respect as they grew in seniority. Known as “lifetime employment,” this occupational approach typified the Japanese professional experience. Today, though lifetime employment still persists in many companies in Japan, more and more workers, many of them recent graduates, are changing jobs in search of better prospects. The companies that hire this new breed of employee are looking for recruits who have the requisite experience, but lack the expectation of respect and promotion simply by virtue of their years of service. In the Tokyo metropolitan area in particular, a number of companies have embraced this short-term employment system.

What are the differences between Japanese who change jobs and those who work in the same place all their lives? In 2005, the Social Stratification and Mobility Study (SSM Study) provided new perspective on the changing face of Japanese job mobility. A large-scale survey, social survey professionals have conducted the SSM Study every ten years since 1955. This article is based on the fourth release data (November 2007 version), which was prepared by the 2005 Social Stratification and Mobility Study Group.

Several patterns emerge in the SSM Study data. First, much depends on when an employee first began working. Those (male) workers who started their first job after 1950—especially during Japan’s post–World War II rebuilding phase or the economic bubble of the early 1990s—are much more likely to change jobs than those who started their first job before that year. In particular, those employed during the rebuilding era have tended to change jobs multiple times.

Second, Japanese employees behave differently depending on the size of the enterprise at which they work. At governmental organizations or large enterprises with more than one thousand employees, for example, workers who started their first job there tend to stay there. As the organizations diminish in size, this tendency likewise decreases. At mid- or small-size organizations with fewer than three hundred employees, workers who started their first job there tend to change their job earlier than their counterparts at bigger employers.

Third, with respect to job type, white collar professionals tend to keep their first job, whereas blue collar workers change job more often. More specifically, there is little job movement, for example, among those employed in educational or research services. However, in mining, transportation, manufacturing, sales or wholesale businesses, legal and accounting services, communications, and advertising, workers regularly change job due to long hours coupled with low income.

Fourth, in terms of educational background, workers who have attended college, university, or graduate school often stick with their first job. Workers with high school or junior high school levels of educations are more likely to move on from their first job within first few years.

Why do Japanese workers change jobs? The SSM Study indicates that, among those moving from their first to their second job, 33 percent did so for a “better” position. Ten percent made the switch because they were dissatisfied and wanted a change, or because they were either laid off or the company went bankrupt. The Study also shows that the 33 percent who sought better work also tended, in making such a change, to increase both their income and job prestige, and to affiliate with larger organizations. Many workers who secured better jobs were more educated; the 10 percent who cited job dissatisfaction as the reason for their move tended to be less so. More detailed analysis of the SSM Study reveals that more than 50 percent of those who moved on to a second, better job not only felt that they were better off, but also that they actually joined a smaller organization. This data point shows that a “better” job in Japan does not always mean working for a big, famous company.

The SSM Study considered other important elements of the job-changing experience, including the patterns of change as they relate to job prestige and autonomy. People who moved from large companies tended to be forced into smaller companies, whereas workers from mid- or small-size companies (fewer than three hundred employees) often remain in that size bracket. Most workers experience increased job prestige when they change jobs; this is especially true of educated workers who change job after building up ten or more years of experience at their first job. The exception to this pattern is white collar employees, whose prestige is high from the very first job they take and therefore less likely to rise significantly higher.

The SSM Study showed that white collar workers—and, interestingly, particularly those working in sales—enjoy enhanced autonomy after their job change. Generally, job changes result in “better,” more autonomous employment and higher prestige, if at a smaller organization. People who change their job, therefore, tend to be more motivated by job prestige and increased professional autonomy than by the size of the employer, or even the income level.

Job mobility in Japan is still in an early phase. In the country’s large companies, educated white collar workers—those who theoretically possess the greatest potential for upward job mobility—still tend to stay with the same organization for most of their professional lives. Those relative few who do move report increased satisfaction with their autonomy and/or their job prestige, even in cases where they join a smaller company or take a pay cut. In an effort to move beyond traditional lifetime employment, the Japanese government now encourages the job mobility, but workers have yet to embrace the system on a large scale.

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The first in a series entitled "The Implications of Demographic Change in China," this colloquium features Professor Feldman speaking to us about his research program on demographic issues and statistics concerning the sex ratio in China. His joint research with scholars from Xi’an Jiaotong University is focused on the role of son preference in marriage customs. He will also talk about recent work on rural-urban migrants and how this migration affects the well-being of both the migrants and their elderly parents who remain in the rural areas. Gender is a factor in both migration and the pattern of remittance.

Marcus Feldman is the Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences and director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies at Stanford University. He uses applied mathematics and computer modeling to simulate and analyze the process of evolution. He helped develop the quantitative theory of cultural evolution, which he applies to issues in human behavior, and also the theory of niche construction, which has wide applications in ecology and evolutionary analysis.

Philippines Conference Room

428 Herrin Labs
Department of Biological Sciences
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5020

(650) 725-7727 (650) 725-7745
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Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences
Director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies
marcus-feldman_profilephoto.jpeg MS, PhD

Marcus Feldman is the Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences and director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies at Stanford University. He uses applied mathematics and computer modeling to simulate and analyze the process of evolution. His specific areas of research include the evolution of complex genetic systems that can undergo both natural selection and recombination, and the evolution of learning as one interface between modern methods in artificial intelligence and models of biological processes, including communication. He also studies the evolution of modern humans using models for the dynamics of molecular polymorphisms, especially DNA variants. He helped develop the quantitative theory of cultural evolution, which he applies to issues in human behavior, and also the theory of niche construction, which has wide applications in ecology and evolutionary analysis. He also has a large research program on demographic issues related to the gender ratio in China.

Feldman is a trustee and member of the science steering committee of the Santa Fe Institute. He is managing editor of Theoretical Population Biology and associate editor of the journals Genetics; Human Genomics; Complexity; the Annals of Human Genetics; and the Annals of Human Biology. He is a former editor of The American Naturalist. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and of the California Academy of Science. His work received the "Paper of the Year 2003" award in all of biomedical science from The Lancet. He has written more than 335 scientific papers and four books on evolution, ecology, and mathematical biology. He received a BSc in mathematics and statistics from the University of Western Australia, an MSc in mathematics from Monash University (Australia), and a PhD in mathematical biology from Stanford. He has been a member of the Stanford faculty since 1971.

Stanford Health Policy Associate
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Marcus W. Feldman Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences Speaker Stanford University
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The demographic billionaires China and India are experiencing rapid population changes and social shifts, fast economic growth, poverty decline, a booming modern business sector, and rising human capital in the labor force age groups.  Because 37% of the entire world population lives in these two countries, the breathtaking transformations in India and China are causing major dislocations in the global economy and big changes in measures of world development.  This colloquium will highlight the most important demographic, social, and economic trends happening in China and India today, will compare and contrast the current situations and future prospects of these two powerhouses, and will focus on implications for Asia and the world today and in the coming decade.

Dr. Judith Banister is the director of Global Demographics for The Conference Board, the world’s premier business research and business membership organization, with offices in New York, Brussels, Beijing, Hong Kong, and New Delhi.  She is an expert on the demography of China and received her Ph.D. in demography and development from Stanford.

Philippines Conference Room

Judith Banister Director of Global Demographics Speaker The Conference Board
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