This is part of the Stanford seminar series on Science, Technology, and Society.

Abstract
How do transformative new technologies arise, and how does innovation really work? Conventional thinking ascribes the invention of technologies to “thinking outside the box,” or vaguely to genius or creativity, but Arthur shows that such explanations are inadequate. Rather, technologies are put together from pieces  themselves technologies  that already exist. Technologies therefore share common ancestries, and combine, morph, and combine again, to create further technologies. Technology evolves much as a coral reef builds itself from activities of small organisms  it creates itself from itself; and all technologies are descended from earlier technologies.

W. Brian Arthur is an External Faculty Member at the Santa Fe Institute, IBM Faculty Fellow, and Visiting Researcher in the Intelligent Systems Lab at PARC (formerly Xerox Parc). From 1983 to 1996 he was Morrison Professor of Economics and Population Studies at Stanford University. He holds a Ph.D. from Berkeley in Operations Research, and has other degrees in economics, engineering and mathematics.

Arthur pioneered the modern study of positive feedbacks or increasing returns in the economy--in particular their role in magnifying small, random events in the economy. This work has gone on to become the basis of our understanding of the high-tech economy. He has recently published a new book: The Nature of Technology: What it Is and How it Evolves, "an elegant and powerful theory of technology's origins and evolution."He is also one of the pioneers of the science of complexity.

Arthur was the first director of the Economics Program at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, and has served on SFI's Science Board and Board of Trustees. He is the recipient of the Schumpeter Prize in economics, the Lagrange Prize in complexity science, and two honorary doctorates.

Arthur is a frequent keynote speaker on such topics as: How exactly does innovation work and how can it be fostered? What is happening in the economy, and how should we rethink economics? How is the digital revolution playing out in the economy? How will US and European national competitiveness fare, given the rise of China and India?

Lynn Eden is Associate Director for Research at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. Eden received her Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Michigan, held several pre- and post-doctoral fellowships, and taught in the history department at Carnegie Mellon before coming to Stanford. In the area of international security, Eden has focused on U.S. foreign and military policy, arms control, the social construction of science and technology, and organizational issues regarding nuclear policy and homeland security. She co-edited, with Steven E. Miller, Nuclear Arguments: Understanding the Strategic Nuclear Arms and Arms Control Debates (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989). She was an editor of The Oxford Companion to American Military History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), which takes a social and cultural perspective on war and peace in U.S. history. That volume was chosen as a Main Selection of the History Book Club.

Eden's book Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004; New Delhi: Manas Publications, 2004) explores how and why the U.S. government--from World War II to the present--has greatly underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons by failing to predict damage from firestorms. It shows how well-funded and highly professional organizations, by focusing on what they do well and systematically excluding what they don't, may build a poor representation of the world--a self-reinforcing fallacy that can have serious consequences, from the sinking of the Titanic to not predicting the vulnerability of the World Trade Center to burning jet fuel. Whole World on Fire won the American Sociological Association's 2004 Robert K. Merton Award for best book in science, knowledge, and technology.

Co-sponsored by STS, CISAC, and WTO.

Arthur's new book, The Nature of Technology, will be available for purchase.

Please bring lunch; drinks and light refreshments will be provided.

Professor Yuan Ming was originally trained as a student of western language and literature at Peking University. Prior to her graduate work, she spent eight years in the rural areas in Northwest China. China's Reform and Open Door policy allowed her to do her graduate work in the Law Department of Peking University and then to visit these distinguished institutions abroad: She was a visiting scholar at U.C. Berkeley from 1983 to 1985 and a senior associate member at the St. Antony's College in Oxford University from 1989 to 1990. Since 1995, she was invited and did research at the Carter Center in Atlanta, Georgia, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. She travels a lot and is a frequent speaker at many international gatherings such as the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Trilateral Commission, the Club of Rome, etc.

Professor Yuan Ming teaches the History of International Relations and Western Classics of International Relations at Peking University. She is also the vice-dean of the School of International Studies and the director of the Center for American Studies at the University. Her publications include Cross Century Assignment: the International Relations Studies in China and A History of International Relations ( 1648-1989), which is one of the leading publications and textbooks in China. She is also the co-editor of Sino-American Relations (1945-1955); the Golden Age of U.S.-China-Japan Relations.

Professor Yuan Ming has organized many international conferences in China, and has wide links in Asia, North America, Europe and Oceania.

Professor Yuan Ming is a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and a member of its Foreign Relations Committee. She sits on the boards of a number of institutions in China. She was also the trustee of the Asia Society in New York (1998-2004). In 2004, she joined the International Advisory Board of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Buddhaditta Bose, "Spanning the Chain and Capturing Value in the Clinical Research Outsourcing (CRO) Industry"

The clinical research outsourcing (CRO) industry is a multi-billion dollar industry that has grown over time and is dominated by a few global top CROs. There is no significant Indian player in the market because the global top CROs have strategically chosen to be at the higher end of the value chain. It is therefore imperative that an Indian CRO, like Reliance Life Sciences (RLS), focus its strategy on spanning the chain and providing higher value add to capture the attention of the clients and successfully compete in the marketplace thereby becoming a leading player in the market.

Bose's research looks at the industry value chain and the relative positioning of the case in point - RLS with respect to the value chain and provides recommendations on how RLS can climb up the value chain. His research also highlights the macro view of the industry in context of the basic theme of the research mentioned above.

Girish Masand, "Advanced Tools for Complete Characterization of Biopharmaceutical Products"

Characterization of biopharmaceuticals plays a key role in the identification, structural elucidation and quantitation of chemical constituents or chemical impurities in current protein based therapeutics. For a biopharmaceutical protein to be well characterized, it is essential to be able to define the natural molecular heterogeneity, impurity profile, and potency of that product with a high degree of confidence. Given the continuing development of new technologies in this field, and the complex nature of biopharmaceutical drugs, the recent guidance documents have been drafted to include more stringent and detailed analytical data requirements for product registration. In order to move faster through the regulatory framework and obtain product approval, it is important for any biopharmaceutical company to keep abreast of the current and emerging trend in analytical technologies.

Masand's research provides an assessment of current practices at Reliance Life Sciences and newer trends in analytical characterization of biopharmaceuticals, which will help Reliance Life Sciences to broaden its current perspective of product characterization, sequentially helping to launch its pipeline products at a faster pace.

Masatsugu Mitsuyama, "Strategy of Cable TV Companies - To Get Through the Competitive Environment, What Will Cable TV Companies Do?

In 1948, cable television (CATV) originated in the United States with the purpose of enhancing poor reception of local over-the-air television signals. Since its origin, the CATV industry has grown steadily, expanding its service line-ups and advancing its service features. However, in last two decades, the environment surrounding the CATV industry changed. Competitors such as DirecTV, Dish Network, Verizon and AT&T entered into multi-channel video service. With advanced service features and attractive pricing, these competitors promote existing CATV customers to switch providers and the CATV industry continued to decrease the number of video customers in the last 8 years. Mitsuyama analyzes the CATV industry's approach to get through this competitive environment. Service advancement seems to be a key factor for CATV companies to differentiate themselves. He makes argument especially on "advanced interactive services", on which the CATV industry is focusing its efforts.

Masahito Sugita, "Creation of New Business in Japan and U.S. - Consideration in the Trend Toward a Cloud Computing World"

"Cloud Computing" is a new concept in the structure of computing systems, and is spreading gradually into our lives and businesses. The big shift from the present computing style to the cloud computing style, especially in the fields of enterprise IT systems, is predicted to occur within the next 3 to 5 years. This will fundamentally change information and communication technology (ICT) business models around the world.

Sugita analyzes the impacts of cloud computing on the ICT businesses and the structure of industry, and investigates new strategies suitable for the changing business environments from the point of view of creating new business in Japan and the U.S.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Wataru Ishii, "Economic Development of Zhejiang Province"

Zhejiang Province is located in the southern part of the Yangtze River Delta on the southeast coast of China. Before the economic reform started in 1978 all over the country, Zhejiang Province's GDP and GDP per capita were about 15th among other provinces. Since then it has achieved enormous economic development and now ranks 4th in provincial GDP and GDP per capita, just after politically more autonomous metropolitans of Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin.

While succeeding in maintaining economic development for three decades since the economic reform began, Zhejiang Province is now facing many difficulties, such as unfavorable influence of the international financial crisis in 2008. From the start of economic reform local governments have played an important role in developing local economy. Can local governments help economy in the region keep thriving in future? If so, what kind of roles should they play?

Mitsue Kurihara, "Issues of Japanese VC Industry from the Perspective of Exit Activities"

Exit strategies of venture capitals (VCs) are one of the key factors in developing the VC industry in each country. Exit strategies in VCs are ways to transfer their owned stocks and to obtain high rate of returns. Exit strategies are one of the reasons for the Japanese VC industry being so small and low performing. However, Japanese VC exit conditions have not been completely clarified.

Kurihara will focus on the VC's exit strategies and markets to explain the characteristics and problems of the Japanese VC industry.

Boyoung Shin, "Rising Issues on Multi-Cultural Families in Korea"

Today, a portion of the Korean population consists of foreign residents - currently at 2.2% and growing at a very rapid rate. Korea is no longer a single-ethnic nation, one in which they claim as the purest country in the world. This long time existing sense of nationalism for Koreans has to now confront new challenges. The growing number of foreign residents proves that Korea is now in a remarkable turning point for vast transition in the form of a multi-cultural nation. Shin's research studies the issues of a multi-cultural family and it's significance in adequately coping with the consequences that will soon follow in Korean society.

Suguru Taguchi, "Human Computer Interaction - Focusing on the Input Interface"

Machines and computers have become increasingly convenient and sophisticated, yet, at the same time, more complicated. The interaction between human and computer has an important role in operating these complicated machines. Regarding input interface, there has been a boom in the natural user interface (NUI) that detects movement of the body, including the input interface of the touch screen system.

Taguchi analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of input interface, and argues whether NUI, which uses an intuitive operation, can be used as an input interface in a wide range of fields in the future.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Hironori Iwane, "Smart Grid Strategies Concerning Renewable Energies in the United States and Japan"

The topic of Smart Grid has become more and more popular because technologies concerning it are effective for efficiency improvement and renewable energy increase in electric power systems. However, Smart Grid is an ambiguous term and its meanings vary with different audiences. Therefore, it is increasingly difficult to identify what Smart Grid is or understand the potential benefits or concern for future electric power systems. As the result, grasping strategies for future electric power systems is complicated. This research focuses on clarifying the future strategies for electric power systems in ambiguous renewable and Smart Grid circumstances.

Daiju Nakahashi, "Current and Future Trends of the Smart Grid in the U.S. and Japan - A Study of New Business Opportunities"

The Smart Grid is a next generation power grid that controls the supply and demand of electricity by using advanced information and communications technology. The Smart Grid is considered revolutionary in the power industry - just as the Internet was to the IT industry. In recent years, worldwide interest in the Smart Grid has increased due to its close relationship to renewable energy. In particular, the interest in the United States has grown significantly since the Obama administration unveiled its plan to invest heavily in the Smart Grid. Nakahashi's research in the Smart Grid examines current trends in the United States and Japan and analyzes opportunities for new businesses.

Tomohiro Yamaguchi, "Mobile Industry in the U.S. and Japan:  The Differences and Direction in Each Country"

With the rise of smartphones, such as the iPhone and Android phone, the mobile internet market is dramatically growing in the United States. In Japan, on the other hand, the closed nature of the market is seen as a problem, which is sometimes called "Galapagos", with the negative connotation of the nature. Yamaguchi considers the difference between both markets, and attempts to answer the questions -"Which market is leading?" and "How much is it leading?" Finally, Yamaguchi will conjecture the direction of the future.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Hirofumi Takinami, "Political Economy of the Financial Crises in Japan & United States - A Comparative Study on the Bailout of Financial Institutions"

Currently, the United States is suffering from a financial crisis.  Japan has struggled with a financial crisis from the late 1990's to the early 2000's.  What implications can be drawn from these crisis experiences of the two largest economies in the world?  As one part of a collaborative research with Professor Phillip Lipscy on "Policy Innovation in Japan and the United States:  A Comparative Study of Response to Finiancial Crises", Takinami analyzes which elements are crucial in the use of bailout of financial institutions as a means to address financial crises.  Stressing that taxpayers' understanding and market sentiment are key, he makes arguments especially on the "learning effect" of Japanese financial crisis and the importance of action by the national leader and his/her secretarial organizations.

Takashi Uchida, "Comparative Research Study of Manufacturing Between the United States and Japan"

Manufacturing consists of upstream (raw material suppliers), middle stream (casting, dyes, metal press, etc.) and downstream (automobile companies, machinery companies, and electric companies).  To accurately view the structure of manufacturing as "supply chain", Uchida analyzes where manufacturing value comes from.  In particular, Uchida takes a look at the automobile market, comparing the difference between manufacturing in Japan and the United States.

Zheng Wang, "Valuation and Integration of Intangible Assets in Mergers and Acquisitions"

In modern economies, a large proportion of a company's assets tend to be intangible, such as brand names.  Intangible assets have become one of the key factors behind a company's competitive strength.  In particular, obtaining a target's intangible assets has been the major driving force in M&A activities during the past years.

M&A for intangible assets tends to be more complicated than for tangible assets, mainly due to the challenges in terms of valuation and post-deal integration.  In this research presentation, Wang analyzes some special issues in valuation and integration of intangible assets in M&As, and tries to draw useful lessons on M&A for intangible assets through case study.

This lecture will examine the origins of the Cold War in East Asia, how early the Cold War came to Korea, how the Korean War transformed the containment doctrine, how it solidified the continuing divisions in East Asia, and how it transformed defense policy in the United States, leading to a far-flung structure of seemingly permanent military bases in South Korea, Japan, Germany, and many more countries that lasts down to 2010.  Professor Cumings will also examine problems of history and memory regarding what most Americans call "the forgotten war."

Bruce Cumings teaches international history, modern Korean history and East Asian political economy at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1987 and where he is the Gustavus F. and Ann M. Swift Distinguished Service Professor and the chairman of the History Department.  He received his Ph.D. from Columbia University in 1975. He has taught at Swarthmore College (1975-77), the University of Washington (1977-86), and Northwestern University (1994-97). He is the author of the two-volume study, The Origins of the Korean War (Princeton University Press, 1981, 1990), War and Television (Visal-Routledge, 1992), Korea's Place in the Sun: A Modern History (W. W. Norton, 1997; updated ed. 2005), Parallax Visions: Making Sense of American—East Asian Relations (Duke University Press, 1999; paperback 2002), North Korea: Another Country (New Press, 2003), co-author of Inventing the Axis of Evil  (New Press, 2004), and is the editor of the modern volume of the Cambridge History of Korea (forthcoming). He is a frequent contributor to The London Review of Books, The Nation, Current History, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and Le Monde Diplomatique. The first volume of his Origins won the John King Fairbank book award of the American Historical Association for the best book on East Asia in the previous two years, and the second volume won the Quincy Wright book award of the International Studies Association. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1999, and is the recipient of fellowships from the Ford Foundation-funded Foreign Area Fellows program, NEH, the MacArthur Foundation, the Center for Advanced Study at Stanford, and the Abe Fellowship Program of the Social Science Research Council. He was also the principal historical consultant for the Thames Television/PBS 6-hour documentary, Korea: The Unknown War. He recently published Dominion From Sea to Sea: Pacific Ascendancy and American Power, which was ranked as one of the top 25 books of 2009 by the Atlantic Monthly. Random House will publish his short book, The Korean War, on the war’s 60th anniversary in 2010. He is also contracted to publish a new, single-volume synoptic edition of The Origins of the Korean War.

Associate Professor Jae-Seung Lee from Korea University, Division of International Studies will be leading the seminar on energy security and cooperation in Northeast Asia (including East Asia).

Professor Lee holds a B.A. in political science from Seoul National University (1991) and an M.A (1993) and PhD (1998) in political science from Yale University. He also earned a certificate from the Institut D'Etudes Politiques de Paris in France in 1995.

Before joining the faculty of Korea University, he had served as a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. As a scholar in international political economy, he authored a number of books and articles on Korea, East Asia, and Europe. His current research includes energy security and energy diplomacy of Korea, among others. Prof. Lee has directed the Korea Energy Forum (KEF), an interdisciplinary energy research initiative, and conducted a number of energy projects with UNESCAP and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He has taught at Yale University, Seoul National University, and Korea University.