Abstract:

Inequality has long been widely and rightly seen as one of the greatest threats to democracy. For political scientists, the most lethal kind of inequality for democracy is some form of economic inequality. In this project, I adopt a more historical and ideological approach to the question of how inequality threatens democracy. Specifically, focusing on twentieth-century post-colonial contexts, I argue that inequalities of citizenship that are historically grounded in founding narratives of nationalism are also detrimental to a country’s democratic prospects across time.

Speaker Bio:

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Seminar recording: https://youtu.be/NUJqthUIGiU

Abstract: Did the Cold War of the 1980s nearly turn hot? Much has been made of NATO’s November 1983 Able Archer 83 command post exercise, which the literature typically casts as having nearly precipitated a nuclear war. Warsaw Pact policy-makers, according to the conventional wisdom, suspected that the exercise was more than just a rehearsal of nuclear escalation and concluded that a surprise nuclear attack was imminent, nearly launching a preemptive strike of their own. This article overturns this narrative using new, international evidence from the political, military, and intelligence archives of the Eastern bloc. First, it shows that the much-touted Warsaw Pact intelligence effort to assess Western intentions and capabilities, Project RIaN, which supposedly triggered Eastern fears of a surprise attack was nowhere near operational at the time of Able Archer 83. Second, it presents an account of the East’s sanguine observations of Able Archer 83 disproving accounts which allege that the exercise nearly escalated to nuclear war. In doing so, it advances debates not only in the historiography of the late Cold War, but also pertaining to the stability of the nuclear peace and the role of perception and misperception in policy-making.

Speaker's Biography:

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Abstract:

In dominant-party states, why do individuals vote in elections with foregone conclusions when they are neither bought nor coerced? I propose that a social norm of voting motivates turnout in these least-likely contexts. Motivated by the belief that regimes reward high turnout with public goods, citizens view elections as an opportunity for community-wide benefit and use social sanctions to enforce the norm. Using lab-in-the-field voting experiments together with survey data, I document the strong influence of a social norm of voting in two semi-authoritarian states in east Africa, Tanzania and Uganda. I find that norm compliance is driven by those most dependent on their local community. This project helps to explain high turnout in elections, individual-level variation in voting behavior, and authoritarian endurance. The results suggest that rather than government accountability, elections may instead be about local accountability to one's community.

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Leah is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, France and a research affiliate at MIT GOV/LAB. She received her PhD in political science from MIT in 2018. Leah studies political behavior in sub-Saharan Africa and examines questions of citizen engagement, compliance, and government accountability. Her current book project investigates how social norms of voting help to explain high turnout in dominant-party states in East Africa. She is also working on a project on urban informality in Lagos, Nigeria. Before starting graduate school, Leah worked as the program manager at Columbia University’s Earth Institute in Nigeria.

Abstract:

Using survey data from a variety of sources, I examine how multiple conceptions of American nationhood shaped respondents’ voting preferences in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and how the election outcome built on long-term changes in the distribution of nationalist beliefs in the U.S. population. The results suggest that nationalist beliefs constituted important cultural cleavages that were effectively mobilized by candidates from both parties. In particular, exclusionary varieties of nationalism were associated with Trump support in the Republican primary and the general election, while disengagement from the nation was predictive of Sanders support in the Democratic primary. Furthermore, over the past twenty years, nationalism has become sorted by party: Republicans have become predominantly ethno-nationalist, while Democrats have increasingly embraced a creedal conception of nationhood. The resulting mutual reinforcement of nationalist cleavages with other sources of distinction is likely to shape future elections and threaten the stability of U.S. democracy.

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Bart Bonikowski is Associate Professor of Sociology at Harvard University, Resident Faculty at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, a Faculty Affiliate of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs (where he co-directs the Research Cluster on Global Populism / Challenges to Democracy), and a 2018-19 Lenore Annenberg and Wallis Annenberg Fellow in Communication at Stanford University's Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. Relying on survey methods, computational text analysis, and experimental research, his work applies insights from cultural sociology to the study of politics in the United States and Europe, with a particular focus on nationalism, populism, and the rise of the radical right. His research has appeared in the American Sociological Review, Annual Review of Sociology, Social Forces, British Journal of Sociology, European Journal of Political Research, International Journal of Comparative Sociology, Brown Journal of World Affairs, and a number of other peer-reviewed journals and edited volumes.

The 3rd Asia-Pacific Geo-Economic Strategy Forum
 

May 2, 2019

Hauck Auditorium, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Sponsored and organized by Nikkei Inc., The Hoover Institution, and the Freeman Spogli Institue of International Studies (FSI)


RSVP REQUIRED: https://www.global-nikkei.com/19apgeo/
(RSVP starts from April 10)

 

Agenda

1:00pm - 1:05pm
Welcome Remark:
Adm. Gary Roughead, Hoover Institution, Stanford University


1:005pm - 1:25pm
Keynote Speech:
Itsunori Onodera, Former Minister of Defense, Japan
 

1:30pm - 2:20pm
Panel I: Indo-Pacific Strategy vs Belt & Road Initiative

Chair: Akihiko Tanaka, President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Panelists:
Masahisa Sato, State Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan
Akio Takahara,  Tokyo University
Donald Emmerson, Freeman Spogli Institue for International Studies, Stanford University
 

2:20pm - 2:30pm
Coffee Break


2:30pm - 2:50pm
Special Speech:
Gen. H.R. McMaster, Hoover Institution


2:55pm - 3:50pm
Panel Discussion II: US-Japan Strategic Collaboration: Technology, Trade and Economics

Chair: Satoru Mori, Hosei University

Panelists:
Kenji Wakamiya, Former State Minister of Defense, Japan
Hideaki Watanabe, Former Commissioner of Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA)
Janis Pamiljans, President, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems
Nelson Pedeiro, Vice President, Advanced Technology Center, Lockheed Martin
 

3:50pm - 4:00pm
Coffee Break
 

4:05pm - 4:55pm
Panel Discussion III: Japan`s Defense/Security Strategy

Chair: Satoshi Morimoto, Former Minister of Defense of Japan

Panelists:
Gen Nakatani, Former Minister of Defense, Japan
Itsunori Onodera, Former Minister of Defense, Japan
James Fearon, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
 

4:55pm - 5:00pm
Closing Remark:
Adm. Gary Roughead, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

 

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The JIIA-Stanford Symposium

"The Past, Present, and Future International Order in East Asia"

May 10, 2019

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and organized by the Japan Institute for International Affairs (JIIA) and Japan Program and the US-Asia Security Initiative of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) of the Freeman Spogli Institue of International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University 
 

Interstate relations in East Asia are at a critical juncture.  The post-World War II regional order, shaped by the San Francisco Treaty of 1951, underpinned by a common commitment to a liberal trade system, and led by the United States, is under stress.  The end of the Cold War, rise of China, and recent changes in America’s foreign policy orientation have transformed the environment that sustained “the San Francisco System.”  It is unclear if this system will be maintained, and if not, what will replace it.  The lineage of the San Francisco System itself reaches back to the post-World War I Versailles-Washington System.  An examination of the success and shortcomings of each of these systems can offer insights on the rise and fall of international systems, especially in an Asian context.  In this symposium, we explore the circumstances that shaped the establishment and evolution of the East Asian political, economic, and security architectures from post-WWI to present; discuss the forces that built and undermined the past and existing architecture; and debate possible regional futures.  We will emphasize the perspectives and roles of the U.S., Japan, and China, and focus on major influencing factors including historical legacies, the changing distribution of global power, alliance structures, and political ideologies.

Agenda

9:00am - 9:30am 
Registration and Breakfast 
 

9:30am - 9:45am 
Welcome Remarks: 
Gi-Wook Shin, Director, APARC, Stanford University 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
Takeo Hoshi, Director, Japan Program, APARC, Stanford Univeristy 
 

9:45am - 11:30am 
Panel I: Comparing “the Versailles-Washington System” and “San Francisco System”: Lessons from the Rise and Fall of International Orders in East Asia

Chair: Daniel Sneider, FSI, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Shin Kawashima, University of Tokyo 
Masaya Inoue,  Seikei University 
Lin Hsiao-ting, Hoover Institution, Stanford University 
David Kennedy, Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), FSI, Stanford University 
 

11:30am - 1:15pm 
Lunch 

Keynote Speaker: Ambassador Michael Armacost

1:15pm - 3:00pm 
Panel Discussion II: Japanese, U.S. and Chinese Interests and Security

Chair: Kenichiro Sasae, JIIA 

Panelists: 
Ken Jimbo, Keio University 
Tetsuo Kotani, JIIA 
Mike Lampton, APARC, Stanford University 
Jim Schoff, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) 
 

3:00pm - 3:30pm 
Coffee Break 
 

3:30pm - 5:15pm 
Panel Discussion III: Alternative Future East Asia Systems

Chair: Phillip Lipscy, FSI, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Jim Fearon, FSI, Stanford University 
Ryo Sahashi, University of Tokyo 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
Tom Christensen, Columbia University 
 

5:15pm - 5:35pm 
Rapporteurs' review of symposium discusisons 
 

5:35pm - 5:45pm 
Closing Remarks: 
Karl Eikenberry, Director, US-Asia Security Initiative, APARC, Stanford University 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
 

5:45pm - 6:30pm 
Reception (Encina Lobby)

Abstract: President Trump may talk about the Middle East differently than Obama did. But the two seem to share the view that the United States is too involved in the region and should devote fewer resources and less time to it. The reduced appetite for U.S. engagement in the region reflects, not an ideological predilection or an idiosyncrasy of these two presidents, but a deeper change in both regional dynamics and broader U.S. interests. Despite this, the United States exists in a kind of Middle Eastern purgatory—too distracted by regional crises to pivot to other global priorities but not invested enough to move the region in a better direction. This worst-of-both-worlds approach exacts a heavy price. It sows uncertainty among Washington’s Middle Eastern partners, which encourages them to act in risky and aggressive ways. It deepens the American public’s frustration with the region’s endless turmoil, as well as with U.S. efforts to address it. It diverts resources that could otherwise be devoted to confronting a rising China and a revanchist Russia. And all the while, by remaining unclear about the limits of its commitments, the United States risks getting dragged into yet another Middle Eastern conflict. 

Wittes is a co-host of Rational Security, a weekly podcast on foreign policy and national security issues. She writes on U.S. Middle East policy, regional conflict and conflict resolution, the challenges of global democracy, and the future of Arab governance. Her current research is for a forthcoming book, Our SOBs, on the tangled history of America’s ties to autocratic allies.

Wittes joined Brookings in December of 2003. Previously, she served as a Middle East specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace and director of programs at the Middle East Institute in Washington. She has also taught courses in international relations and security studies at Georgetown University. Wittes was one of the first recipients of the Rabin-Peres Peace Award, established by President Bill Clinton in 1997.

Wittes is the author of "Freedom’s Unsteady March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy" (Brookings Institution Press, 2008) and the editor of "How Israelis and Palestinians Negotiate: A Cross-Cultural Analysis of the Oslo Peace Process" (USIP, 2005). She holds a bachelor's in Judaic and Near Eastern studies from Oberlin College, and a master's and doctorate in government from Georgetown University. She serves on the board of the National Democratic Institute, as well as the advisory board of the Israel Institute, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and Women in International Security.

Mara Karlin's Biography: Mara Karlin, PhD, is Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). She is also an Associate Professor at SAIS and a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. Karlin has served in national security roles for five U.S. secretaries of defense, advising on policies spanning strategic planning, defense budgeting, future wars and the evolving security environment, and regional affairs involving the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Most recently, she served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development.  Karlin has been awarded Department of Defense Medals for Meritorious and Outstanding Public Service, among others. She is the author of Building Militaries in Fragile States: Challenges for the United States (University of Pennsylvania Press; 2018).