Korean Studies Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center is hosting an international workshop on South Korean economic affairs on March 18-19 sponsored by Koret Foundation. Leading scholars and former senior officials from Korea and the United States will explore key aspects of economic globalization and Korea's role, from policies and politics to the economic prospects of a unified Korean. This lecture is offered as a public event on the first day of the workshop for a larger audience from the community and the Bay area.
Ambassador Han was appointed by President Lee, Myung-bak as the new Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the United States of the America on January 18, 2009. He presented his Letter of Credence to President Barack Obama on May 20, 2009.
Before the appointment, Ambassador Han served as the 38th Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea after his nomination was approved by the National Assembly on April 2, 2007, and he worked in that capacity until February 2008.
Prior to serving as Prime Minister, Ambassador Han held numerous high-ranking positions in the Korean government. In 2006, he was named Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Facilitating KORUS FTA following his service as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy. Before being named Minister of Government Policy Coordination in early 2004, he worked as President of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade.
As Korea’s Permanent Representative to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Ambassador Han went to Paris in 2001 before returning to Seoul later that year to serve at the Blue House, first as Senior Secretary to the President for Policy and Planning and later as Senior Secretary to the President for Economic Affairs.
Ambassador Han was the Minister for Trade at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade from 1998 to 2001. Previously, he was Assistant Minister for International Trade and Vice Minister at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. From 1993 to 1994, he served as Secretary to the President for Economic Affairs.
During his distinguished career in government, Ambassador Han has made many contributions to the development and modernization of the Korean economy. Deregulation, market opening and strengthening of the market economy have been the three pillars of his philosophy and framework for the economic policy of Korea.
Ambassador Han earned a B.A. in economics from Seoul National University, and an M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. He has been awarded two Order of Public Service and Merit Medals.
This event is supported by a generous grant from the Koret Foundation.
Bechtel Conference Center
Duk-Soo Han
Korean Ambassador to the United States
Keynote Speaker
In his testimony before the House Oversight Committee about Toyota's massive recall efforts, Akio Toyota will learn that you can't win such an encounter. But you can lose. Shorenstein APARC Associate Director for Research Daniel C. Sneider comments on a Japanese CEO learning the lessons of American business the hard way.
The impact of global warming on food prices and hunger could be large over the next 20 years, according to a new Stanford University study. Researchers say that higher temperatures could significantly reduce yields of wheat, rice and maize - dietary staples for tens of millions of poor people who subsist on less than $1 a day. The resulting crop shortages would likely cause food prices to rise and drive many into poverty.
But even as some people are hurt, others would be helped out of poverty, says Stanford agricultural scientist David Lobell.
Lobell discussed the results of his research on Feb 19 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Diego.
"Poverty impacts depend not only on food prices but also on the earnings of the poor," said Lobell, a center fellow at Stanford's Program on Food Security and the Environment (FSE). "Most projections assume that if prices go up, the amount of poverty in the world also will go up, because poor people spend a lot of their money on food. But poor people are pretty diverse. There are those who farm their own land and would actually benefit from higher crop prices, and there are rural wage laborers and people that live in cities who definiztely will be hurt."
Lobell and his colleagues recently conducted the first in-depth study showing how different climate scenarios could affect incomes of farmers and laborers in developing countries.
Household incomes
In the study, Lobell, former FSE researcher Marshall Burke and Purdue University agricultural economist Thomas Hertel focused on 15 developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Hertel has developed a global trade model that closely tracks the consumption and production of rice, wheat and maize on a country-by-country basis. The model was used to project the effects of climate change on agriculture within 20 years and the resulting impact on prices and poverty.
Using a range of global warming forecasts, the researchers were able to project three different crop-yield scenarios by 2030:
"Low-yield" - crop production is toward the low end of expectations.
"Most likely" - projected yields are consistent with expectations.
"High-yield" - production is higher than expected.
"One of the limitations of previous forecasts is that they don't consider the full range of uncertainties - that is, the chance that things could be better or worse than we expect," Lobell said. "We provided Tom those three scenarios of what climate change could mean for agricultural productivity. Then he used the trade model to project how each scenario would affect prices and poverty over the next 20 years.
"The impacts we're talking about are mainly driven by warmer temperatures, which dry up the soil, speed up crop development and shut down biological processes, like photosynthesis, that plants rely on," he added. "Plants in general don't like it hotter, and in many climate forecasts, the temperatures projected for 2030 would be outside the range that crops prefer."
Results
The study revealed a surprising mix of winners and losers depending on the projected global temperature. The "most likely" scenario projected by the International Panel on Climate Change is that global temperatures will rise 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by 2030. In that scenario, the trade model projected relatively little change in crop yields, food prices and poverty rates
But under the "low-yield" scenario, in which temperatures increase by 2.7 F (1.5 C), the model projects a 10 to 20 percent drop in agricultural productivity, which results in a 10 to 60 percent rise in the price of rice, wheat and maize. Because of these higher prices, the overall poverty rate in the 15 countries surveyed was expected to rise by 3 percent.
However, an analysis of individual countries revealed a far more complicated picture. In 11 of the 15 countries, poor people who owned their own land and raised their own crops actually benefited from higher food prices, according to the model. In Thailand, for example, the poverty rate for people in the non-agricultural sector was projected to rise 5 percent, while the rate for self-employed farmers dropped more than 30 percent - in part because, as food supplies dwindled, the global demand for higher-priced crops increased.
"If prices go up and you're tied to international markets, you could be lifted out of poverty quite considerably," Lobell explained. "But there are a lot of countries, like Bangladesh, where poor people are either in urban areas or in rural areas but don't own their own land. Countries like that could be hurt quite a lot. Then there are semi-arid countries - like Zambia, Mozambique and Malawi - where even if prices go up and people own land, productivity will go down so much that it can't make up for those price increases. In the 'low-yield' scenario, those countries would see higher poverty rates across all sectors."
Under the "high-yield" scenario, in which global temperatures rise just 0.9 F (0.5 C), crop productivity increased. The resulting food surplus led to a 16 percent drop in prices, which could be detrimental to farm owners. In Thailand, the poverty rate among self-employed farmers was projected to rise 60 percent, while those in the non-agriculture sector saw a slight drop in poverty. In Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi and Uganda, poverty in the non-farming sector was projected to decline as much as 5 percent.
Risk management
Lobell said that, although the likelihood of the "low-yield" or "high-yield" scenario occurring is only 5 percent, it is important for policymakers to consider the full range of possibilities if they want to help countries adapt to climate change and ultimately prevent an increase in poverty and hunger.
"It's like any sort of risk management or insurance program," he said. "You have to have some idea of the probability of events that have a big consequence. It's also important to keep in mind that any change, no matter how extreme, will benefit some households and hurt others."
The Program on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford is an interdisciplinary research and teaching program that generates policy solutions to the persistent problems of global hunger and environmental damage from agricultural practices worldwide. The program is jointly run by Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
Ambassador Bosworth will share his off-the-record thoughts with us. No quotes or cameras of any kind please.
Stephen W. Bosworth is the Dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, a position he assumed in February 2001. Prior to his appointment at The Fletcher School, he served as the United States Ambassador to the Republic of Korea from November 1997 to February 2001.
From 1995-1997, Dean Bosworth was the Executive Director of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization [KEDO], an inter-governmental organization established by the United States, the Republic of Korea, and Japan to deal with North Korea. Before joining KEDO, he served seven years as President of the United States Japan Foundation, a private American grant-making institution. During that period, he co-authored several studies on public policy issues for the Carnegie Endowment and the Century Fund. He also taught International Relations as an Adjunct Professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs from 1990 to 1994. In 1993, he was the Sol Linowitz Visiting Professor at Hamilton College.
Dean Bosworth has had an extensive career in the United States Foreign Service, including service as Ambassador to Tunisia from 1979-1981 and Ambassador to the Philippines from 1984-1987. He also served in a number of senior positions in the Department of State, including Director of Policy Planning, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs, and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs. He is currently serving as Special Representative for North Korea Policy.
Dean Bosworth is the recipient of several awards, including the American Academy of Diplomacy's Diplomat of the Year Award in 1987, the Department of State's Distinguished Service Award in 1976 and 1986, and the Department of Energy's Distinguished Service Award in 1979. In 2005, the Government of Japan presented him with the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver Star.
Bosworth is a former member of the Board of Directors of the Council on Foreign Relations and currently serves as a member of the Board of Directors of the Japan Society of Boston. He is also a member of the Trilateral Commission.
Bosworth is a graduate of Dartmouth College where he was a member of the Board of Trustees from 1992 to 2002 and served as Board Chair from 1996 to 2000.
Philippines Conference Room
Stephen W. Bosworth
Dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Speaker
Tufts University
President Barack Obama is reading What Is the What and has recommended that all his staff read it as well.
Valentino Achak Deng's life has been described by The New York Times as a testament "to human resilience over tragedy and disaster." Born in
the village of Marial Bai, in Southern Sudan, he was forced to flee in
the 1980s, at the age of seven, when civil war erupted. As one of the
so-called Lost Boys, he trekked hundreds of miles, pursued by animals
and government militias, and lived for years in refugee camps in Kenya
and Ethiopia. He eventually resettled in America, to a new set of
challenges. Deng's life is the basis of Dave Eggers' epic book What Is
the What, which Francine Prose calls "an extraordinary work of witness,
and of art." In 2009, as part of his Valentino Achak Deng Foundation,
he opened the Marial Bai Secondary School, the region's first proper
high school. Read Nicolas Kristof's glowing New York Times Op-ed about
the Marial Bai School in Sudan.
Valentino Deng spent his formative years in refugee camps, where he
worked as a social advocate and reproductive health educator for the UN
High Commission for Refugees. He has toured the United States and
Europe, telling his story and becoming an advocate for social justice
and the universal right to education. In 2006, Deng collaborated with
Dave Eggers on What Is the What, an international bestseller that is
now required reading on college campuses across America. With Eggers,
Deng is co-founder of the Valentino Achak Deng Foundation, which helps
rebuild Sudanese communities by providing educational opportunities and
facilities.
Professor Anne Bartlett received her Ph.D. from the Sociology Department at
the University of Chicago. She is a director of the Darfur Centre for
Human Rights and Development based in London. Since 2002, Bartlett has
worked with tribes and rebel groups from Darfur as part of a research
project on insurgent politics. At the invitation of the Darfur
delegation, Bartlett was the chair of the United Nations hearing on the
Darfur crisis, UN commission on Human Rights, 60th Session, Geneva,
Switzerland, April 2004. She was also a guest speaker at "The Human
Rights and Humanitarian Crisis in Darfur (Western Sudan): Challenges to
the International Community," UN Commission on Human Rights, 61st
session, April 2005, Geneva, Switzerland. Bartlett has published
extensively on the crisis and has given numerous talks on the Darfur
crisis worldwide. She is currently working on a project that examines
the effect of humanitarian intervention in the region.
Co-Sponsored by
The Billie Achilles Fund and the Bechtel
International Center, Programs in International Relations, SAGE, Six
Degrees & Human Rights Forum, STAND, Stanford Amnesty
International, UNICEF, Program on Human Rights: CDDRL, Center for
African Studies, & The Black Community Services Center
Annenberg Auditorium
Stanford, CA
Valentino Deng
co-founder, Valentino Achak Deng Foundation
Speaker
Anee Bartlett
Speaker
Darfur Centre for Human Rights and Development based in London
Please join Marvin Kalb to discuss the impact of the Vietnam War on presidential/strategic decisions about national security issues.
Marvin Kalb is also a
contributing news analyst for National Public Radio and Fox News
Channel. In addition, he is frequently called upon to comment on major
issues of the day by many of the nation's other leading news
organizations.
Kalb had
a distinguished 30-year broadcast career, working for both CBS News and
NBC News, where he served as Chief Diplomatic Correspondent, Moscow
Bureau Chief, and moderator of Meet the Press. Among his many
honors are two Peabody Awards, the DuPont Prize from Columbia
University, the 2006 Fourth Estate Award from the National Press Club
and more than a half-dozen Overseas Press Club awards. He has lectured
at many universities, here and abroad. Kalb was the founding director
of the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics, and Public
Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
A
graduate of the City College of New York, Kalb has an M.A. from Harvard
and was zeroing in on his Ph.D. in Russian history when he left
Cambridge in 1956 for a Moscow assignment with the State Department.
The following year, he joined CBS News, the last correspondent hired by
Edward R. Murrow. Kalb has authored or co-authored 10 nonfiction books
and two best-selling novels. His latest book, The Media and the War on Terrorism (co-edited with Stephen Hess), was the recipient of the 2004 Arthur
Rowse Award for Press Criticism. He is currently engaged in research
for a book on U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War and its impact on
American politics and foreign policy.
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
Marvin Kalb
James Clark Welling Presidential Fellow at The George Washington University and Edward R. Murrow Professor Emeritus at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government
Speaker
In the study, Lobell, former FSE researcher 