The Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) addresses critical challenges to international security through methodologically rigorous, evidence-based analyses of insurgency, civil war and other sources of politically motivated violence. The project is comprised of leading scholars from across the country from a variety of academic disciplines. ESOC aims to empower high quality of conflict analysis by creating and maintaining a repository of micro-level data across multiple conflict cases and making these data available to a broader community of scholars and policy analysts.

Teaching is a core element of the educational process and a significant body of literature demonstrates that good teachers matter a lot for improving student academic achievement. However, research is inconclusive about what can be done to improve teacher effectiveness. What kind of training enhances content knowledge and teaching skills? What type of teacher incentives can improve their teaching practice and outcomes? What are the best ways to evaluate teachers? These type of questions are a pressing issue in developing countries where educational performance is generally inadequate.

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Abstract:

Scholars of state development have paid insufficient attention to the question of regionalism; too often modeling state-building as the extension of the authority of a 'center' over peripheral territories, and too often linking regionalism to cultural or ethnic heterogeneity. A purely spatial account of the challenges to central control shows that even in the absence of cultural fractionalization, the presence of economically powerful and politically salient regions undermines political development. Three analytically distinct mechanisms - divergent public good preferences, economic self-sufficiency, and institutional design - underlie this relationship. I explore these issues through a region-wide analysis of Latin America, and case studies of the United States, Ecuador, Colombia, and early modern Poland.

Speaker Bio:

Hillel David Soifer earned his PhD in the Government Department at Harvard, and is currently Assistant Professor of Political Science at Temple University. His research has been centered in Latin America, with a focus on political development and state capacity, and has been published in journals including Latin American Research Review and Comparative Political Studies. He is currently completing a book on the long-term divergence in state capacity in Latin America which contrasts the cases of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.

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William J. Perry was only 18 when he found himself surrounded by death, a young U.S. Army mapping specialist in Japan during the Army of Occupation. The atomic bombs had been dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and World War II had just come to an end. 

“The vast ruins that once had been the great city of Tokyo – nothing, nothing had prepared me for such utter devastation that was wrought by massive waves of firebombing rained down by American bomber attacks,” said Perry, who was then shipped off to the island of Okinawa in the aftermath of the last great battle of WWII.

More than 200,000 soldiers and civilians had been killed in that closing battle of 1945, codenamed Operation Iceberg. 

“Not a single building was left standing; the island was a moonscape denuded of trees and vegetation,” Perry told a rapt audience during a recent speech. “The smell of death was still lingering.” 

The young man quickly understood the staggering magnitude of difference in the destruction caused by traditional firepower and these new atomic bombs.

 “It had taken multiple strikes by thousands of bombers and tens of thousands of high explosive bombs to lay waste to Tokyo,” he recalls. “The same had been done to Hiroshima and then to Nagasaki with just one plane – and just one bomb. Just one bomb. 

“The unleashing of this colossal force indelibly shaped my life in ways that I have now come to see more clearly,” said Perry, who would go on to become the 19th secretary of defense. “It was a transforming experience. In many ways – I grew up from it.” 

William J. Perry in 1945 in his U.S. Army Air Corps uniform.

William J. Perry in 1945 in his U.S. Army Air Corps uniform. 
Photo Credit: U.S. Army

Now, nearly seven decades later, the 86-year-old Perry has come full circle. His new winter course will take students back to his fateful days in Japan after the United States became the first – and last – nation to use atomic weapons. He’ll go through the Cold War, the arms race and expanding nuclear arsenals, and today’s potential threats of nuclear terrorism and regional wars provoked by North Korea, Iran or South Asia. 

Living at the Nuclear Brink: Yesterday & Today (IPS 249) – to serve as the backdrop for an online course at Stanford next year – concludes with the declaration Perry made in 2007: The world must rid itself entirely of nuclear weapons. And students will get a primer on how to get involved in organizations that are working on just that. 

“They did not live through the Cold War, so they were never exposed to the dangers and therefore it doesn’t exist to them; it’s just not in their world,” Perry said of millennial and younger students. “I want to make them aware of what the dangers were and how those dangers have evolved.”

 

Perry and former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn, both Democrats, joined former Republican Secretaries of State George P. Shultz and Henry A. Kissinger in launching a series of OpEds in The Wall Street Journal (the first in 2007) that went viral. Together they outlined how nations could work together toward a world without nuclear weapons.

“I think I have some responsibility since I helped build those weapons – and I think that time is running out,” Perry said in an interview. 

Perry helped shore up the U.S. nuclear arsenal as undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, procuring nuclear weapons delivery systems for the Carter administration. Later, as secretary of defense for President Bill Clinton, his priority became the dismantling of nuclear weapons around the world. 

Today, he works on the Nuclear Security Project along with Shultz, Kissinger and Nunn. Former New York Times correspondent Philip Taubman documents their bipartisan alliance in the book, “The Partnership: Five Cold Warriors and Their Quest to Ban the Bomb.” That fifth cold warrior is Sidney Drell, the renowned Stanford physicist and co-founder of CISAC. 

Taubman, a consulting professor at CISAC, will guest lecturer in Perry’s class, along with CISAC’s Siegfried Hecker, David Holloway, Martha Crenshaw and Scott Sagan. Other speakers are expected to include Shultz, a distinguished fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution; Andrei Kokoshin, deputy of the Russian State Duma; Ashton B. Carter, who just stepped down as deputy secretary of defense; Joseph Martz of the Los Alamos National Laboratory; and Joeseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund.

The world is far from banning the bomb. According to the Ploughshares Fund, an estimated 17,300 nuclear weapons remain in the global stockpile, the majority of which are in Russia and the United States.

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President Barack Obama declared shortly after taking office in his first foreign policy speech in Prague that because the United States was the only country to have used nuclear weapons, Washington “has a moral responsibility to act.” 

“So today, I state clearly and with conviction, America’s commitment to seek the peace

and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” Obama said back in May 2009. 

Perry – a senior fellow at CISAC who received his BS and MS from Stanford and a PhD from Pennsylvania State University, all in mathematics – laments the regression of the movement to dismantle the nuclear legacy of the Cold War. 

Obama has so far not acted on his pledge in his contentious second term, as China and Russia expand their stockpiles. North Korea and Iran are attempting to build nuclear weapons and India and Pakistan are building more fissile material. The U.S. Senate still has not ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the U.S. and Russia have not moved forward on a follow-up to the New START Treaty. 

Perry recognizes that the issue is slipping from the public conscience, particularly among young people. So he’s putting his name and experience behind a Stanford Online course slated to go live next year. It will correspond with the release of his memoir, “My Journey at the Nuclear Brink” and will take a more documentary approach, weaving together key moments in Perry’s career with lectures, archival footage and interviews and conversations between Perry and his colleagues and counterparts. 

"Bill Perry has had a remarkable career and this project draws on his unparalleled experience over a pivotal period in history," said John Mitchell, vice provost for online learning. "We hope his brilliant reflections will be useful to everyone with an interest in the topic, and to teachers and students everywhere." 

At the heart of his winter course, online class and memoir are what Perry calls the five great lessons he learned in the nuclear age. The first four are grim remnants of what he witnessed over the years: the destructive nature of the atomic bombs on Japan; his mathematical calculations about the number of deaths from nuclear warfare; his work for the CIA during the Cuban Missile Crisis; and one pre-dawn call in 1978 from the North American Aerospace Defense Command saying there were 200 missiles headed toward the United States from the Soviet Union. That turned out to be a false, but terrifying alarm. 

His fifth final lesson is hopeful, if not cautionary. It goes like this: 

As secretary of defense from 1994 to 1997, Perry oversaw the dismantling of 8,000 nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union and the United States and helped the former Soviet states of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus to go entirely non-nuclear. In that mission, he often visited Pervomaysk in the Ukraine, which was once the Soviet Union’s largest ICBM site, with 700 nuclear warheads all aimed at targets in the United States. 

On his final trip to Pervomaysk in 1996, he joined the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministers to plant sunflowers where those missiles had once stood. 

“So reducing the danger of nuclear weapons is not a fantasy; it has been done,” Perry said. “I will not accept that it cannot be done. I shall do everything I can to ensure nuclear weapons will never again be used – because I believe time is not on our side.”

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According to international human rights law, countries have to provide palliative care and pain treatment medications as part of their core obligations under the right to health. The failure to take reasonable steps to ensure that people who suffer pain have access to adequate pain treatment may also result in the violation of the obligation to protect against cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment. The lecture will discuss Human Rights Watch’s research on this issue in India, Ukraine, Senegal, Kenya, and Mexico; our national and international advocacy efforts; and how we evaluate the impact of our work.

Joe Amon, PhD MSPH, is the Director of the Health and Human Rights Division at Human Rights Watch. Since joining Human Rights Watch in 2005, Joe has worked on a wide range of issues including access to medicines; discrimination, arbitrary detention and torture in health settings; censorship and the denial of health information; and the role of civil society in the response to infectious disease outbreaks and environmental health threats. Between January 2009 and June 2013 he oversaw Human Rights Watch's work on disability rights. He is an associate in the department of epidemiology at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University and a lecturer in public and international affairs at Princeton University. In 2012 he was a distinguished visiting lecturer at the Paris School of International Affairs of SciencesPo.            

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CHP/PCOR’s three new faculty members bring a varied background in behavioral health economics, law and children’s health outcomes

By Teal Pennebaker

Three researchers, whose work spans the globe as well as disciplines, have joined CHP/PCOR.  They include a health law professor, a physician economist interested in how behavioral issues influence patient outcomes, and another physician economist who will focus on health economic issues among children in developing countries.

“We are thrilled to welcome Marcella Alsan, David Studdert, and David Chan to our centers. Each of these folks fit into our centers' mission to produce rigorous relevant research by people who care deeply about the topics they probe,” CHP/PCOR Executive Director Kathryn McDonald said. “We credit the current community of scholars at Stanford with attracting these talented individuals to join forces with us.”

Professor David Studdert has spent the past six years at the University of Melbourne’ Law School teaching and studying policy issue at the intersection of health and legal systems.  His most recent research has investigated the relationship between speeding tickets and auto accidents, how patient complaints can be used as indicators health care quality, and how claimants move through workers’ compensation systems.

“David is one of the leading scholars in the world in health law and we are fortunate to have him join our faculty,” CHP/PCOR Director Doug Owens said. “David’s recruitment provides a terrific opportunity to expand our policy work, and his research will serve as the nucleus for joint training and research with our colleagues in the law school.”

Studdert, who will spend a quarter of his time at Stanford Law School, plans to focus on regulatory “hot spotting” in the short term—an approach that uses statistical profiling techniques to make regulation more efficient in areas ranging from medical malpractice to road safety. “There’s a lot going on in health care regulation in the United States,” Studdert said. “I hope to be able to collaborate with others at PCOR--it’s a very exciting, bright group of researchers with plenty of areas of mutual interest.”

Studdert has actually worked with CHP/PCOR members before—he was at RAND in the late 1990s while CHP/PCOR Professor Jay Bhattacharya was there. Similarly, CHP/PCOR’s newest faculty Marcella Alsan and David Chan have actually spent ample time together—before coming to Stanford, they did the same internal medicine residency program at the Brigham Women’s in Boston. Both Chan and Alsan will also practice medicine at the Veteran Affairs hospital part-time as is the case for some of the other clinical faculty members at CHP/PCOR. 

“We are delighted that we were able to recruit two exceptional physician economists to our centers,” Owens said. “Marcella brings deep understanding of global health from her training in infectious diseases along with the methodologic skills of an economist.  It is a rare combination and will enable her to make exceptional contributions in understanding the interplay of health and economics in the developing world. "  

Assistant Professor Marcella Alsan, who has a PhD in economics, a master’s in public health and a medical degree, will focus her research on policy questions in international health, particularly among children in developing countries.  Right now she’s finishing up a project looking at the spillover effects for the siblings and family members of children participating in a large-scale immunization program in Turkey. Alsan is also in the midst of revising a job market paper about how disease affects long-term economic development of Africa. 

“I’m a researcher, a physician and a past global health resident at Brigham and Women's hospital. All of that fits in best here at CHP/PCOR. Stanford is a stellar academic institution and has a growing global health and development community,” Alsan said. “At PCOR, they do excellent research and have wide interests. There isn’t pressure to be narrowly focused on one topic or one publication style.”

Assistant Professor David Chan, who has a PhD in economics and training in internal medicine, will focus on how behavioral issues impact productivity in health care systems. 

"Dave is uniquely trained to study the productivity of  healthcare systems.  Given the extraordinary need to reduce costs and provide high-value care, we believe Dave’s work on health care productivity will be enormously important in understanding some of the most difficult challenges for medicine today," Owens said.

Chan’s current work includes studying the impact of whether doctors choosing which patients they see affects their patients’ health outcomes; the effects on patients’ health outcomes if a doctor sees them at the beginning or end of the doctor’s shift; and whether providing doctors financial incentives—e.g. linking the number of ultrasounds a doctor gives out to their pay—impacts patient health outcomes.

“The environment at the centers is just great for someone who’s multidisciplinary. It’s a small place but surrounded by so many great partners within walking distance -- the business school, economics department, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), the computer science department, and so on,” Chan said.  “It’s great to be back in California. I even bought a bike—I’ve never really ridden a bike this much!”

 

 

 

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Ben Rudolph was an ambitious computer science major planning to remain in Silicon Valley and join one of the many start-ups eager for young Stanford grads. But in his senior year he took a class, “Rethinking Refugee Communities,” which knocked him off his path and got him thinking about how to use that ambition for the greater good.

The class was co-taught by Tino Cuéllar, a Stanford Law School professor and director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Cuéllar led the class while co-director of FSI's Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), which had just launched a collaboration with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The agency was looking for innovative ideas to support and protect the more than 42 million refugees, internally displaced and stateless people around the world.

When Rudolph graduated in June, he turned down offers in local tech firms and headed to Geneva as an intern for UNHCR’s nascent innovation lab. He joined Stanford alumna and CISAC faithful, Alice Bosley, in the small office with a big mission: to aid refugees by driving innovation using the latest tools of technology. 

“I get to make a difference in the lives of some of the most vulnerable people in the world: refugees,” said Rudolph, a 23-year-old from Naperville, Ill., who came to Stanford on a gymnastics scholarship. “And I love that I get to meet such a diverse group of people with wildly different opinions about so many things.” 

Rudolph has now joined UNHCR Innovation full time and has traveled to Ecuador to pilot one of his projects and to Thailand for an innovation workshop. On a recent trip to Esmeraldas on the northwestern coast of Ecuador, he tested out an SMS program that would help displaced people get information from the UNHCR and its partner organizations. 

Bosley, the associate operations officer at UNHCR Innovation, first joined the U.N. as an intern speechwriter at the Permanent Mission of East Timor to the United Nations in New York. She was visiting some CISAC colleagues in the spring of 2012 when she learned about the burgeoning collaboration between the center and UNHCR. She volunteered for the project and became an intern with the newly formed UNHCR Innovation team, where she was later offered a full-time position.

Alice Bosley crossing a river near the Dollo Ado UNHCR refugee camp in Ethiopia.

Alice Bosley crosses a river by the Dollo Ado UNHCR refugee camp in Ethiopia.           Photo: UNHCR Innovation

 

 

 

“UNHCR Innovation is my dream job; I am constantly traveling to new and interesting locations to work on projects and I’m able to support some of the most creative and impressive people in the organization,” said Bosley, 25, who graduated in 2011 with a degree in international relations. “It’s challenging and sometimes overwhelming. But I wouldn’t pick anything else to do at this point in my life.” 

Rudolph and Bosley are models of the CISAC mission: to train the next generation of experts who will make the world a safer place. While not entrenched in the policy arena or at the forefront of arms control or Track II diplomacy, they are quietly, doggedly fulfilling the CISAC pledge to improve lives around the world. 

"One of CISAC's greatest strengths over the years has been its record of attracting enormously talented students and fellows from a diverse array of disciplines and giving them a chance to work on problems that affect lives around the world,” said Cuéllar. 

The UNHCR came to Cuéllar in early 2012 asking to collaborate. That initial request has led to an array of projects across campus and around the world. Cuéllar last year co-taught the class, “Rethinking Refugee Communities,” with Leslie Witt of the Palo Alto-based global design firm IDEO. That class in turn led to research trips in Ethiopia and Rwanda with UNHCR and the International Rescue Committee to test out some of the student projects to improve food security, communications, camp design and an SMS platform that Rudolph later tested with the innovation lab. 

“Ben and Alice were attracted to the refugee project because of its focus on improving conditions for forced migrants,” said Cuéllar. “Both of them are brimming with intellectual curiosity, ability, and dedication, so it's no surprise that UNHCR has put them at the center of its innovation work." 

The collaboration now extends far beyond CISAC. Cuéllar, CISAC visiting professor Jim Hathaway of the University of Michigan Law School, Roland Hsu of the Stanford Humanities Center and the NGO Asylum Access are convening a winter quarter working group on refugee rights. Stanford faculty will come from many departments to talk about the tension between providing emergency care and protecting refugee rights. 

CISAC led the UNHCR to the Stanford Geospatial Center, where students are working on four mapping projects to help refugees, including an interactive map that displays the density for refugees seeking shelter in that conflict. 

“Working with the UNHCR was truly a unique experience for us,” said Patricia Carbajales, geospatial manager at the Branner Earth Sciences Library who linked the students with the UNHCR advisers in Geneva and field offices around the world. “The students were completely engaged, understanding the importance that their projects had for UNHCR and, most importantly, for the refugees themselves.” 

The popularity of the projects has led to a new class in the spring, “GIS for Good: Applications for GIS for International Development and Humanitarian Relief.” 

Cuéllar and Elizabeth Gardner, associate director for partnerships and special projects at FSI, are working with UNHCR architects and the New York-based Ennead Architects Lab to develop new tools to expedite the complex process of laying out new refugee camps. 

Stanford’s Haas Center for Public Service and the student-led Stanford in Government is making moves to permanently place interns or postgraduate fellows at UNHCR. FSI Senior Fellow Paul Wise, a professor of pediatrics at Stanford’s School of Medicine, will mentor that intern in the coming year. 

Meanwhile, out in the field, Rudolph doesn’t know if his UNHCR experience has forever changed his career path. He may come back to the valley and pick up where he left off; he may continue his humanitarian work. 

Either way, he says, “This work has really opened me up to a world of problems that are so vast it’s hard to grasp. It will be forever difficult to go back to my ignorant bliss.”

Ben Rudolph, center, with Sudanese refugees in a UNHCR refugee camp in Ethiopia, March 2013.

Stanford students Parth Bhakta, left, and Ben Rudolph, talk with Sudanese refugees at the UNHCR camp in Bambasi, on Ethiopia's eastern border with Sudan. Photo: Beth Duff-Brown  

 

 

 

 

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Stanford's Program on Social Entrepreneurship is proud to introduce its fourth class of Social Entrepreneurs-in-Residence at Stanford (SEERS Fellows) who will be joining the academic community in January. Tackling complex social justice issues in the Bay Area and globally, this group is working to raise literacy rates in public schools, hold international institutions accountable for their abuses, and defend the rights of women and girls across the state of California.

The three SEERS fellows will co-teach a course (IR/CAS 142) that explores the role of social entrepreneurship in advancing democratic change. This service-learning course allows students to work first-hand with the SEERS fellows on projects to scale-up their work as social change leaders.

The 10-week residency program brings social entrepreneurs inside academia to document the impact of their work and build their institutional capacities. It also provides students the opportunity to learn about the emerging field of social entrepreneurship by working with practitioners inside the classroom.

The incoming group of SEERS fellows have been widely recognized for their innovative work pioneering new approaches to address outstanding social problems, receiving prestigious awards including; the MacArthur Genius Fellowship; the Echoing Green Fellowship; and the Social Innovation Fund award from the U.S. federal government, among others.

Leading innovative organizations, these SEERS fellows have been successful in introducing new programs but also influencing policy changes to transform educational and social outcomes for communities in the developed and developing world.

While studying abroad in Chile, Natalie Bridgeman Fields witnessed indigenous women being tear-gassed as their land was being forcibly seized for a World Bank-financed project. At that moment, Fields was inspired on her journey as a social entrepreneur, working to launch the Accountability Counsel in 2009 to defend the environmental and human rights of communities across the developing world. The Accountability Counsel has been successful in winning victories for marginalized communities and influencing international institutions to change their policy and practices.

Michael Lombardo is a successful product of the public education system in the U.S. When as an adult he saw that only 35 percent of fourth graders read at a proficient level he decided to commit himself to closing the early reading achievement gap. Reading Partners employs an innovative model of matching mentors with children in public schools to tutor them and improve reading outcomes. The model has worked and Lombardo has been successful in growing Reading Partners to serve over 40 school districts across eight states nationwide.

At the age of 19, Lateefah Simon was appointed the executive director of the Center for Young Women's Development, an organization working to support the needs of low-income young women in San Francisco. Since then, Simon has committed herself to a life of service to support juvenile and criminal justice reform and gender rights in the state of California through positions at the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights, the San Francisco District Attorney's Office, and most recently at the Rosenberg Foundation.

The SEERS fellows will be on campus through March in residency with the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. For more information on the program, please visit pse.stanford.edu.

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This paper estimates the effect that successful cocaine interdiction policies in Colombia have had on violence in Mexico. We propose a simple model of the war on drugs that captures the essence of our identification strategy: aggregate supply shocks affect the size of illegal drug markets, which then increases or decreases violence. We estimate the effect of the interaction of cocaine seizures in Colombia with simple geographic features of Mexican municipalities. Our results indicate that aggregate supply shocks originated in drug seizures in Colombia affect homicides in Mexico. The effects are especially large for violence generated by clashes between drug cartels. Our estimates also show that government crackdowns on drug cartels might not be the only explanation behind the rise of illegal drug trafficking and violence observed in the last six years in Mexico: successful interdiction policies implemented in Colombia since 2006 have also played a major role in the worsening of the Mexican situationduring Calderon's sexennium.

 

Speaker Bio:

Daniel Mejia is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) at Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia, where he has taught since 2006. He received a BA and MA in Economics from Universidad de los Andes and a MA and PhD in economics from Brown University. Prior to joining Universidad de los Andes he worked as a researcher at the Central Bank of Colombia and Fedesarrollo. Daniel he has been actively involved in a research agenda whose main objective is to provide an independent, economic evaluation of anti-drug policies implemented under Plan Colombia. His academic work has been published at the Journal of Development Economics, the European Journal of Political Economy, Economics of Governance and Economia: Journal of the Latin America Economic Association. In 2008 he was awarded Fedesarrollos´s German Botero de los Ríos prize for economic research. Also, in 2008, 2010 and 2012 he was awarded with research grants from the Open Society Institute for the study of anti-drug policies in Colombia. Daniel, together with Alejandro Gaviria, recently published the book “Políticas antidroga en Colombia: éxitos, fracasos y extravíos” (Anti-drug policies in Colombia: successes, failures and lost opportunities) at Universidad de los Andes, in Bogota. Between 2011 and 2012, Daniel was a member of the Advisory Commission on Criminal Policy and more recently he is the Chair of the Colombian Government´s Advisory Commission on Drugs Policy.

 

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Daniel Mejia Londoño Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) Speaker Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia
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