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Siegfried S. Hecker
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Siegfried S. Hecker and William J. Perry argue that the Bush administration should not walk away or slow down talks with Pyongyang, instead it should focus on limiting North Korea's nuclear capabilities by concluding the elimination of plutonium production.

The Bush administration's North Korea strategy is being criticized from the right and the left for letting Pyongyang off the hook. Some advocate scuttling the six-party talks. Others suggest slowing our own compliance with the agreement to get North Korea to make a full declaration of its nuclear program first. We disagree with both positions. Our mantra should be: It's the plutonium, stupid.

North Korea does have the bomb -- but a limited nuclear arsenal and supply of plutonium to fuel its weapons. The Yongbyon plutonium production facilities are closed and partially disabled.

In separate visits to North Korea in February, we concluded that the disablement was extensive and thorough. We also learned that Pyongyang is prepared to move to the next crucial step of dismantling Yongbyon, eliminating plutonium production. This would mean no more bombs, no better bombs and less likelihood of export. After this success, we can concentrate on getting full declarations and on rolling back Pyongyang's supply of weapons and plutonium.

We must not miss this opportunity, because we have the chance to contain the risk posed by North Korea's arsenal while we work to eliminate it. As dismantlement proceeds, negotiations should focus concurrently on the plutonium declaration, the extent of the uranium enrichment effort and Pyongyang's nuclear exports.

Pyongyang's declaration of 30 kilograms of plutonium (sufficient for roughly four to five bombs) falls short of the estimate of 40 to 50 kilograms, based on our past visits. We believe that North Korea is prepared to produce operating records and permit access to facilities, equipment and waste sites for verification. Obtaining and verifying its declaration of plutonium production and inventories is imperative. Let's proceed.

Pyongyang continues to claim that it has made no efforts to enrich uranium, despite strong evidence to the contrary. Although it appears unlikely that these efforts reached a scale that constitutes a weapons threat, a complete accounting is required. Dismantlement of the Yongbyon facilities should not, however, be postponed to resolve this issue. In October 2002, the Bush administration accused North Korea of covert uranium enrichment, only to have Pyongyang withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and produce plutonium to fuel the arsenal that we are now attempting to eliminate.

Nuclear exports are of greater concern. As recently revealed evidence demonstrates, North Korea sold nuclear technology to Syria, much as it sold missile technology. North Korea must cooperate if we are to get to the bottom of the Syrian incident and ensure that it is not repeated elsewhere. Israel eliminated the Syrian threat, for now, by bombing the reactor at Al Kibar. But it is imperative that Pyongyang reveal the nature and extent of its export operations and, most important, whether it has similar deals underway with Iran.

We do not advocate letting Pyongyang off the hook, but a "confession" regarding Syria is not the critical issue. We have good knowledge of what the North Koreans supplied to Syria. What we really need is information from North Korea that will help us deal with potential threats. For example, was North Korea acting alone, or was it part of a more sophisticated proliferation ring involving Pyongyang's trading partners and suppliers? North Korea's leadership must resolve all three declaration issues fully, and these will take time to verify.

To ultimately succeed in the peaceful elimination of nuclear weapons, we must understand why North Korea devoted its limited resources to going nuclear. The September 2005 six-party joint statement addresses many of these concerns, promising mutual respect for national sovereignty, peaceful coexistence, and a commitment to stability and lasting peace in Northeast Asia, as well as normalization of relations. Given the acrimonious history of our relations, such steps require a transformation in the relationship between North Korea and the United States, a change that will first require building trust -- step by step.

The six-party negotiations have put us on that path, and there is much evidence of winds of change blowing in North Korea that will make navigating that path easier (the recent New York Philharmonic concert in Pyongyang is one such symbol of change; the joint industrial facility at Kaesong is another). But North Korea's reluctance to provide full declarations and the Syria revelations have moved us in the wrong direction.

Nevertheless, walking away from the talks or slowing them at this point would be counterproductive. Instead, in its remaining months, the Bush administration should focus on limiting North Korea's nuclear capabilities by concluding the elimination of plutonium production. If it can also get answers on the Syrian operation and resolve the question of uranium enrichment, it will put the next administration in a stronger position to finally end the nuclear threat from North Korea.

Siegfried S. Hecker and William J. Perry are with the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Hecker was director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory from 1986 through 1997. Perry was secretary of defense from 1994 through 1997.

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Ohio Wesleyan University presented CISAC Co-Director Scott D. Sagan with an honorary Doctor of Laws degree during its 164th commencement ceremony on May 11. The citation accompanying the honor states: "Scott D. Sagan's grandfather, J. Waskom Pickett, a bishop in the United Methodist Church, served as a missionary in India and advised his grandson on the importance of helping to make the world a better place. Sagan's father, the late Dr. John Sagan-a beloved 1948 Ohio Wesleyan graduate, OWU trustee, and vice president/treasurer of Ford Motor Company-often mentioned the student's Golden Rule: 'Find out what you enjoy doing most, and then figure out a way to get paid for that activity.' Dr. Scott Sagan has found great enjoyment-and success-in following both his father's and grandfather's advice: his career has combined his love of research and teaching about international relations with influential policy work that has reduced the danger that nuclear weapons pose to the United States and to the rest of the world."

Sagan, a professor of political science, "is one of the most widely cited scholars of international relations in the United States," the citation states. "His seminal publications have shaped the way scholars and policy makers have thought about the risks of nuclear terrorism." In addition, CISAC, which Sagan has helped lead for the past decade, "is widely recognized as one of the world's preeminent university-based think tanks conducting policy research on global security matters."

Ohio Wesleyan is a private, undergraduate liberal arts college in Delaware, Ohio.

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PESD researchers Jeremy Carl, Varun Rai, and David G. Victor analyze the role of energy in India's foreign policy, examining a cross-section of India's energy system. They find that fickle domestic political coalitions dominate energy policymaking in India and that these unstable coalitions, when combined with the weak administrative capacity of the Indian state, leave India's foreign policy apparatus incapable of making credible commitments in the energy sector.
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Iain Johnston is the Laine Professor of China in World Affairs at Harvard University's department of government. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. His research and teaching interests include socialization in international institutions, the analysis of identity in the social sciences, and ideational sources of strategic choice, mostly with reference to China and the Asia-Pacific region. He is the author of "Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History" (Princeton 1995) and "Social States: China in International Institutes, 1980-2000" (Princeton 2008), and co-editor of "Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power" (Routledge 1999), "New Directions in the Study of China's Foreign Policy" (Stanford 2006), and "Crafting Cooperation: Regional Institutions in Comparative Perspective (Cambridge 2007).

Graham Stuart Lounge (Room 400)
Encina Hall West

Professor Alastair Iain Johnston Speaker Department of Government, Harvard University
Lectures
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Kazuhiko Ejima, "Reconstructing Japan's Public Finance"

Japan, the second largest economy in the world, is secretly facing public finance crisis with the worst debt-to-GDP ratio among developed countries. What led Japan into such crisis? How to get rid of it? In Japan, it is widely believed that raising the consumption tax is the best approach to fixing Japan’s finances. In contrast, Ejima argues, based on an assessment of the current political situation, that any new budget reconstruction plan should focus more on the expenditure side than on the revenue side, and that it should include reform of the public sector.

Naoki Hiyama, "Newspaper as an Industry:  Seeking New Business Model - Beyond Free News Website"

From the beginning of the internet age, for newspaper companies in advanced countries, revenue from print paper has declined. Still, web news sites are not profitable. Hiyama’s research presentation will explore how newspaper companies can survive in this internet age.

Kaoru Fukushima, "Present and Future Condition of Solar Power Generation Market in Japan and California"

California is enthusiastic about environment. PG&E fully cooperates with people to install solar power on rooftops. California has good geographical conditions for solar power compared to Japan. However, the diffusion of solar power in California is much smaller than that in Japan. What is the reason? What is the perspective for the future in Japan / in California? Fukushima’s research will analyze the difference from various aspects.

Philippines Conference Room

Kazuhiko Ejima Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Ministry of Finance, Japan Speaker
Naoki Hiyama Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, The Asahi Shimbun Speaker
Kaoru Fukushima Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Kansai Electric Power Company Speaker
Seminars
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Mari Ichinomoto, "The Method for Attracting Semiconductor Industries with Fabless Policies in Japan"

Recently most local governments in Japan are exploring overseas firms who have interests to expand their business in Japan. But now other Asian countries are becoming tougher competitors. What can the local governments do to achieve their mission? Is there a good way to compete against other countries in order to achieve their goal?

Takao Isozaki, "Organization Change - Preparation for DBJ's Privatization"

The Development Bank of Japan (DBJ), one of the Japanese governmental financial institutions, will be fully privatized for 5 to 7 years. Isozaki’s research examines what kind of aspects DBJ's workers should take into account as preparation for its privatization process.

Hisashi Kanazashi, "Comparison and Analysis of US-Japan Policies for Innovation"

After catching up with developed countries and experiencing the collapse of the bubble economy, Japan has struggled to recover. The key word during the struggle was “innovation”, and the Japanese government has pushed many reforms to encourage it. However, is the reform for innovation in Japan sufficient? The goal of Kanazashi’s research is to examine it by analyzing the recent trend of start-ups and comparing policies in the United States and in Japan.

Philippines Conference Room

Mari Ichinomoto Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Kumamoto Prefecture Speaker
Takao Isozaki Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Development Bank of Japan Speaker
Hisashi Kanazashi Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan Speaker
Seminars
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