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Mass famines, like those of the 1990s that killed a million people, are projected to happen again in North Korea. At any time, more than 220,000 people are held in the prison system, where "torture, assault, rape, infanticides, forced detention and public executions" are commonplace. The state medical system is in severe disrepair, allowing treatable diseases like tuberculosis to claim tens of thousands of lives per year. Unfortunately, North Korea's political and economic isolation often impedes those interested in reducing the hardships endured by the North Korean people. In "The North Korean Crisis: Human Stories and Taking Action," four experts on North Korea will discuss the North Korean humanitarian crisis and importantly, outline ways for members of the Stanford community and beyond to take action.

Presented by the Stanford Korean Students Association and sponsored by ASSU Speaker's Bureau, Korean Student Association at Stanford, Korean Studies Program, CDDRL, Steve Kahing

Bechtel Conference Center

Dr. Sharon Perry Senior researcher at the Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine Speaker Stanford and North Korean
Jung Gwang Il Director of NK Gulag for Democracy Speaker A Seoul based-NGO
David Hawk Former Executive Director of Amnesty International USA Speaker
Dan Chung Communications Director of Crossing Borders Speaker
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David Straub, associate director of the Korean Studies Program, discussed the historical context of North Korea's apparent sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette "Cheonan" on March 26 with the loss of 46 lives. Straub said that North Korea's second test of a nuclear device had profoundly affected American and global thinking about North Korean intentions. "Now the conclusion of most people, including in the Obama administration," Straub underlined, "is that they can't see the North Koreans giving up their nuclear weapons on terms that would be acceptable to anyone."
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On May 24 and 25, industry leaders will meet at Encina Hall's Bechtel Conference Center to assess the likely future shape and implications of China's rise in the digital realm for consumers, industry players, investors, researchers and policy makers--be sure to join SPRIE for the "China 2.0" conference at Stanford University.

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In this fourth session of the Forum, former senior government officials and other leading experts from the United States and South Korea will discuss current developments in North Korea and North Korea policy, the future of the U.S.-South Korean alliance, and a strategic vision for Northeast Asia.

Bechtel Conference Center

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"In terms of geo-politics, the most difficult and most challenging part of the world in this era, particularly in the aftermath of 9/11, is the broader Middle East," said Zalmay Khalilzad, in a 2010 Payne Distinguished Lecture, "The Struggle for the Broader Middle East: Where We Are and Where We Need to Go." A native of Afghanistan, Khalilzad served as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and as a senior White House, Defense, and State Department Advisor.

Tracing the dynamic interplay of national, regional, and international forces, he set out five major issues likely to shape the future of the region:

  1. The challenge of militant Islam, resulting from an ongoing crisis of civilization within a once powerful, innovative, and dynamic Islamic world.
  2. Regional disputes, including the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border dispute, and ongoing Indian-Pakistani disputes.  Terming the Arab-Israeli conflict an important shaping factor, Khalilzad said that circumstances were not ready for a settlement.  "Israel wants a process without an outcome and the Palestinians want an outcome without a process," he said.
  3. Rivalry for regional hegemony, including the rivalry between Shia and Sunni Islam and Iran's quest to obtain a nuclear weapon.  In the struggle over Iran's nuclear program, he said, is the potential for a wider regional conflict. Israel could attack Iran's facilities, destabilizing the region, and over the long term, a nuclear Iran would threaten Israel and provoke both state and sub-state proliferation.
  4. Broader political and economic development and democratization efforts. The region's population is growing rapidly, but the educational system prepares the young poorly for the modern world and job prospects are limited, creating discontent and the danger of internal instability.
  5. Extra regional factors, including U.S. policy. Setting a July 2011 timeline to withdraw troops from Afghanistan has had unintended consequences, he said, including increased corruption, as people seek to maximize access to resources now. In Iraq, institution building has been effective, the resource base is there for a power-sharing formula, and Iraq can do quite well. The pledge of U.S. troop withdrawals this summer, however, has led Iraqis to think "we are on our way out" and led them to look to regional actors for support, adding to polarization.

The region remains vitally important, he concluded, given the challenges emanating from it.  "A civilization crisis takes a long time to work itself out," he said, "and although the world is affected by it, we can influence it to a degree, but we have to do so without undermining the more moderate and secular forces for the good."

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Richard Morse led a presentation on China's long term coal import/export balance at the 16th Annual Coaltrans Asia 3-day conference in Indonesia.  A few topics he addressed were:

  • Is the world's largest coal producer on the verge of becoming a net-importer?
  • Import price spreads
  • How and why China's government may intervene in the coal markets
  • Domestic market reform and investment

Coaltrans Conferences organises large-scale international coal conferences which attract delegates from all over the world. It also runs focused regional events, exhibitions, field trips and training courses. It has a reputation for employing the highest organisational standards. In 2010, Coaltrans is running events in Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Singapore, South Africa, The Netherlands, The UK, The US, and Vietnam.

Bali International Convention Centre, Indonesia

Richard K. Morse Speaker
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A new AHPP working paper contributes to an important debate in law and health policy

Malpractice liability, along with medical technology and payment system distortions, regularly figures among the most-cited reasons for escalating health-care spending in the United States. On the one hand, Harvard economist Amitabh Chandra conservatively estimates that upwards of $60 billion, or 3 percent of total health care costs ($1.8 trillion), is spent annually as a result of direct litigation and indi­rect defensive medicine costs. On the other hand, tort reform advocates place the figure at $200 billion by extrapolating, to the entire U.S. population, the results of research conducted by Stanford professor Dan Kessler and Mark McClellan. Their 1996 study shows that tort reforms reduced provider liability costs for Medicare heart patients by 5 to 9 percent.

 

At the heart of these debates is the following question. Does medical malpractice liability achieve its dual goal of compensating victims of medical injuries and deterring medical errors, or does it merely encourage wasteful defensive medicine without improving patient health? Despite considerable empiri­cal research, there is little evidence that malpractice litigation deters medical negligence. The evidence is much stronger—though still hotly debated—that malpractice fears actually encourage physicians to engage in defensive medicine.

 

The newest release in the Asia health Policy Program working paper series, AHPP working paper #13 by Brian Chen, explores whether malpractice pressures affect physician behavior, patient health, and health care costs in Asia. Studying physicians’ response to legal changes in Taiwan, he finds that greater malpractice liability may, under certain circumstances, prompt physicians to perform more services without necessarily improving patient health.

 

Dr. Chen investigates how physicians’ test-ordering behavior and propensity to perform cesarean sections were affected first by a series of court rulings in Taiwan that increased physicians’ liability risks, and then by a subsequent amendment to the law that reversed the courts’ rulings. He finds that physicians faced with higher malpractice pressure increased laboratory tests as expected but unexpectedly reduced cesarean sections. The reduction in cesarean deliveries may be due to the fact that liability risks were more closely aligned with physicians’ standard of care after the court rulings. After the law was amended to negate the court decisions, physicians reversed their previous behavior, reducing laboratory tests and increasing cesarean deliveries. This pattern of behavior strongly suggests that physicians in Taiwan practice defensive medicine.

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Xueguang Zhou
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Xueguang Zhou: Details about the school attacks remain to be sorted out — whether they are isolated or copycat acts; whether they are triggered by mental illness or based on some malicious motives. But one thing is clear: these incidents reflect widespread and rapidly rising social anxieties, frustrations and tensions in the Chinese society today.

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A graduate of the University of Tokyo and Stanford University, Yasuo Tanabe was Vice President of the Research Institute for Economy, Trade, and Industry in Tokyo and a career official at Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), later the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI). He will address Japan's policies on energy and climate change.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Yasuo Tanabe Former Deputy Director-General, Speaker Economic Affairs Bureau of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan
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