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Michael A. McFaul
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By committing to spend $85 million to promote democracy in Iran in the next fiscal year, the Bush administration has signaled a major escalation of its efforts to challenge autocracy in Tehran. At the level of grand strategy, this major policy revision should be welcomed and supported. On principle, the U.S. should support the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people. For reasons of national security, Washington also has an interest in promoting democracy in Iran, as a democratic regime in Tehran would not threaten the U.S. or its allies and could serve as a powerful force for stability in the region.
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In an article written for the current issue of the Washington Quarterly Larry Diamond, Michael A. McFaul and Abbas Milani, suggests that the U.S. government seek a comprehensive agreement with Tehran that would "end the economic embargo, unfreeze all Iranian assets, restore full diplomatic relations, support the initiation of talks on Iran's entry into the WTO, encourage foreign investment, and otherwise move toward a normal relationship with the Iranian government." In exchange, Iran would have to suspend its nuclear weapons program...
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Bombing Iran will exacerbate, not resolve problems, Michael A. McFaul, Larry Diamond and Abbas Milani demonstrate in a new landmark article. "Rather than throw the reactionaries in Tehran a political lifeline in the form of war, the United States should pursue a more subtle approach: contain Iranian agents in the region, but offer to negotiate unconditionally with Iran on all the outstanding issues. Comprehensive negotiations could offer powerful inducements, such as a lifting of the economic embargo and a significant influx of foreign investment and thus create the jobs necessary to persuade Iran to halt nuclear enrichment. If the hard-liners reject the offer, then they would have to contend with an angry Iranian public. Such internal strife would be far preferable to an Islamic Republic united against the attacking forces of the 'Great Satan.'"
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Michael A. McFaul
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For weeks, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has insisted that there are no fissures in the Iranian regime. Any allegations of such tensions are simply part of a U.S. propaganda war against Tehran, he declared. But then last Monday, at what was billed as a "unity lunch," Khamenei asked 28 of the country's most powerful leaders -- mostly mullahs -- to put aside their differences and coalesce around a single cause: preserving the system.
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Michael A. McFaul
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Amr Hamzawy and Michael A. McFaul: Has President George W. Bush given up on his liberty doctrine? From Libya to Iran to Azerbaijan, the Bush administration appears to have downgraded the importance of democracy promotion in the last several months. Nowhere, however, has a new indifference to democracy been more striking than in Egypt.
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In his annual testimony before the House Armed Services Committee in March 2006, then - Pacific Commander Admiral William Fallon characterized Southeast Asia as "in the front line of the War on Terrorism." While some in the region welcomed this indication of official American interest, many would have wished to be singled out for more positive reasons. Yet, for many Americans, it took an event as dramatic as the Bali bombings of October 2002 to realize that there were more Malay-speaking Muslims in Southeast Asia than Arabic-speaking ones in the Middle East. Using the little-known sultanate of Brunei as a point of departure, Ambassador Christy will analyze how political Islam in the Malay Muslim world has changed, and how one American diplomat went about shaping US policies to respond to these changes.

Ambassador Gene Christy is a career foreign service officer. At the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, RI, he teaches in the National Security Decision-Making Department, including courses on Asian security perspectives and on Southeast Asia. In Washington D.C. he worked in the State Department on island Southeast Asia issues (2001-02 and 1985-89) and as director for Asia at the National Security Council (2000-01). His diplomatic posts in Southeast Asia prior to serving as ambassador to Brunei included Kuala Lumpur in the 1990s, Jakarta in the 1980s, and Surabaya in the 1970s.

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's eighth seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Gene Christy State Department Adviser, US Naval War College, and 2002-2005 US Ambassador to Brunei Darussalam Speaker
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Matthew Connelly is an Associate Professor of History at Columbia University. Professor Connelly works in contemporary international history, with a particular focus on North-South relations. He received his BA from Columbia in 1990 and his Ph.D. from Yale in 1997. He has written articles for The American Historical Review, Comparative Studies in Society and History, The International Journal of Middle East Studies, and the Revue française d'Histoire d'Outremer, as well as commentaries on foreign policy for The Atlantic Monthly and The National Interest. His current project is a history of the international campaign to control population growth to be published by Harvard University Press.

This seminar is a special International History event cosponsored by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Department of History.

Lane History Corner
Building 200, Room 307

Matthew Connelly Associate Professor of History Speaker Columbia University
Seminars
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Recently there has been much debate over whether Iraq's conflict is a civil war. James D. Fearon argues that this conflict is "one comparable in important respects to other civil wars that have occurred in postcolonial states with weak political institutions." Based on comparable conflicts in the past, Fearon states that hopes of "creating a stable, peaceful, somewhat democratic regime that can survive the departure of U.S. troops -- is unrealistic". There are no good reasons to believe that President Bush's plans for a "surge" attack to reduce the level of violence in Baghdad would quell the power struggle in the long term as "civil wars are rarely ended by stable power-sharing agreements". In the rare successful cases, it has usually taken combatants without factions, unlike Iraq's current situation. "Neither condition is satisfied by Iraq at present," said Fearon.
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