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Please note: the start time for this event has been moved from 3:00 to 3:15pm.

Join FSI Director Michael McFaul in conversation with Richard Stengel, Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs. They will address the role of entrepreneurship in creating stable, prosperous societies around the world.

Richard Stengel Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Special Guest United States Department of State

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies, Department of Political Science
Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
mcfaul_headshot_2025.jpg PhD

Michael McFaul is the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies in Political Science, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, all at Stanford University. He joined the Stanford faculty in 1995 and served as FSI Director from 2015 to 2025. He is also an international affairs analyst for MSNOW.

McFaul served for five years in the Obama administration, first as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council at the White House (2009-2012), and then as U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation (2012-2014).

McFaul has authored ten books and edited several others, including, most recently, Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder, as well as From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia, (a New York Times bestseller) Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We Should, How We Can; and Russia’s Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin.

He is a recipient of numerous awards, including an honorary PhD from Montana State University; the Order for Merits to Lithuania from President Gitanas Nausea of Lithuania; Order of Merit of Third Degree from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and the Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching at Stanford University. In 2015, he was the Distinguished Mingde Faculty Fellow at the Stanford Center at Peking University.

McFaul was born and raised in Montana. He received his B.A. in International Relations and Slavic Languages and his M.A. in Soviet and East European Studies from Stanford University in 1986. As a Rhodes Scholar, he completed his D. Phil. in International Relations at Oxford University in 1991. 

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Three CISAC scientists have joined 26 of the nation’s top nuclear experts to send an open letter to President Obama in support of the Iran deal struck in July.

“The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the United States and its partners negotiated with Iran will advance the cause of peace and security in the Middle East and can serve as a guidepost for future non-proliferation agreements,” the group of renowned scientists, academics and former government officials wrote in the letter dated August 8, 2015.

“This is an innovative agreement, with much more stringent constraints than any previously negotiated non-proliferation framework.”

CISAC senior fellow and former Los Alamos National Laboratory director Sig Hecker is a signatory to the letter, along with CISAC co-founder Sid Drell, and cybersecurity expert and CISAC affiliate Martin Hellman.

Six Nobel laureates also signed, including FSI senior fellow by courtesy and former Stanford Linear Accelerator director Burton Richter.

The letter arrives at a crucial time for the Obama administration as it rallies public opinion and lobbies Congress to support the Iran agreement.

You can read the full letter along with analysis from the New York Times at this link.

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Introduction and Contribution


A burgeoning literature considers the domestic causes and consequences of democratic backsliding for public perceptions of democracy but has yet to fully examine the role of international factors in explaining these perceptions. The effect of democratic backsliding in one

democracy on public support for democratic principles in other countries has, thus far, defied theoretical and empirical investigation. In “U.S. Democratic Backsliding and the Decline of Democratic Support Abroad,” Amnon Cavari, Amichai Magen, and Benjamin Yoel address this gap in knowledge. They propose and test a theory of the effects of backsliding on global opinion, in which information about democratic decline in one country can lead to diminished support for liberal democracy and increased support for authoritarian governance in another. To test this, they deployed an original survey experiment in Israel to examine the effect of two narratives about the 2020 U.S. elections — one signaling democratic decline and one signaling democratic resilience — on support for authoritarian governance. They found that respondents exposed to the narrative of U.S. democratic decline were more supportive of authoritarian governance than those exposed to the narrative of democratic resilience. Moreover, they find marginal evidence that the respondents’ ideological preferences condition the effect of narrative exposure. Cavari, Magen, and Yoel’s findings suggest that the democratic backsliding literature has insufficiently explored the global consequences of domestic events and processes for democratic decline worldwide.

[The authors] propose and test a theory of the effects of backsliding on global opinion, in which information about democratic decline in one country can lead to diminished support for liberal democracy and increased support for authoritarian governance in another.

Democratic erosion is both a supply- and demand-side phenomenon. On the supply side, leaders take anti-democratic actions, such as weakening checks on executive power, which they then justify to the public — on grounds of law and order, threats to the nation, and so on. On the demand side, varied types of social conflict, such as polarization or racial animus, can lead publics to endorse limits on democratic governance. 

Real-life models of democratic erosion have ‘diffused’ across borders. For example, strongmen in countries neighboring Russia, such as Alexander Lukashenko and Viktor Orbán, have borrowed from Vladimir Putin’s playbook of jailing opponents and using anti-Western rhetoric. It is less clear, however, whether authoritarian phenomena in one country can prompt changes in the beliefs of ordinary people in other countries.

In “U.S. Democratic Backsliding and the Decline of Democratic Support Abroad,” Amnon Cavari, Amichai Magen, and Benjamin Yoel present results from a survey experiment conducted among Israelis following the January 6 United States Capitol attack. They find that respondents who were randomly exposed to a narrative about US democracy eroding were significantly more supportive of autocracy in Israel. By contrast, those exposed to a narrative about the resilience of US democracy after January 6 were less supportive. These effects were most pronounced among conservative Israelis, perhaps unsurprising given the associations between right-wing ideologies and authoritarianism.

They find that respondents who were randomly exposed to a narrative about US democracy eroding were significantly more supportive of autocracy in Israel. By contrast, those exposed to a narrative about the resilience of US democracy after January 6 were less supportive.

Readers come away with a sense of the varied ways that democratic erosion can diffuse across borders, particularly at the micro level. That changes in American politics can affect the attitudes of Israelis over 6000 miles away suggests that autocrats can be highly effective in shaping the regime trajectories of their more immediate neighbors. This makes it all the more urgent to combat anti-democratic narratives before they take root and spread.

How Authoritarian Attitudes Diffuse


The authors make a straightforward claim: someone in country A who observes democratic norms or institutions being undermined in country B may well question the value of democracy for A. To see this, consider how Nayib Bukele’s campaign of mass imprisonment without due process in El Salvador has appealed to ordinary people across Latin America. In light of the social and economic problems facing democratic countries, unchecked strongmen — and their purported successes — have come to seem more credible and pragmatic. 

Democratic erosion in country B should be especially likely to affect the beliefs of people in A when (1) B is a close ally of, or is seen as powerful or influential for A, and (2) events in B are widely covered in A’s traditional or social media. For example, coverage of the United Kingdom’s “Brexit” was shown to influence how people in other European Union countries viewed integration or withdrawal. The authors further posit that democratic erosion will have a larger effect on support for autocracy among those who subscribe to right-wing ideologies — these prioritize social order and religious or racial purity, which can conflict with inclusive democracy. 

Backsliding in Israel and Ties to the United States


Israeli democracy has eroded in recent years, particularly as Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has worked to undermine judicial independence and as discrimination against Arab and other ethnic minority Israelis persists. However, Israel’s backsliding also has strong demand-side components: majorities of those surveyed in 2023 agreed that a strong leader — one not limited by the legislature or judiciary — was necessary to solve Israel’s problems, that voting rights should be restricted among those unwilling to declare their loyalty to the state, and that international NGOs should be banned. The authors aim to show that these anti-democratic beliefs stem not only from elite rhetoric or national polarization, but from global backsliding. 

The United States is Israel’s closest ally, and the two countries share much in terms of political and social life. Both were founded by groups fleeing persecution, who established a political culture defined by pioneer settlement and the displacement of indigenous peoples. The US has consistently supported Israel’s wars and military operations in the Middle East. A large majority of Israelis view the US as an exemplar of democracy and freedom. This makes Israel an ideal case for measuring how global democratic erosion affects democratic sentiment at home. 

The Survey Experiment


The survey was fielded in March 2021, a time of acute political crisis in Israel: this marked the fourth election cycle in less than two years, and the prior two elections had resulted in parliamentary stalemates and short-lived governments. In the prior months, Israeli media had extensively covered Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 elections and ensuing January 6 attack on the Capitol. 92% of survey participants reported following the US elections, and 43% reported doing so closely. A majority reported believing the US strongly influences Israeli politics.

Participants were randomly assigned to read one of two ‘vignettes’ about the 2020 elections. One emphasized that US democracy had faltered, as evidenced by Trump’s behavior and the Capitol attack. Another emphasized the resilience of US democracy, as evidenced by high turnout and the eventual transfer of power — this vignette did not mention January 6. The authors find that those who read the “US democracy faltering” vignette were significantly less likely to agree the US elections were free and fair. 

Finally, the authors measure their dependent variable — support for autocracy — in terms of support for restricting speech that is hostile to the government, the permissibility of rule by strongmen, and so on. The key finding is that Israelis exposed to the “US democracy faltering” narrative were significantly more supportive of autocracy.
 


 

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Figure 3. Support for Authoritative Governance, by Vignette.

 

Figure 3. Support for Authoritative Governance, by Vignette.
 



These effects were most pronounced among those on the political right, but the main finding holds even when statistically controlling for ideology. In all, the study demonstrates that when democratic erosion diffuses, it can shape not only elite behavior but mass attitudes as well.
 


 

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Figure 4. Effect of ideology on support for Authoritative Governance by Vignette.

 

Figure 4. Effect of ideology on support for Authoritative Governance by Vignette.
 



*Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

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CDDRL Research-in-Brief [5-minute read]

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In late August 2021, United States President Joseph Biden hosted the newly elected Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennet, at the White House for an official meeting. Shortly after, Israeli journalist Barak Ravid reported that Biden and Bennet ‘reaffirmed the strategic understandings’ between the two allies on Israel’s ‘alleged undeclared military nuclear program’, noting that this reaffirmation of policy has been repeated by every US President since Richard Nixon.1 As shall be explored below, this statement is mostly accurate, with the seemingly glaring exception of President George H.W. Bush. Upon its publication, Ravid’s story became the most recent in a long line of reports detailing this repeated commitment by US presidents to their Israeli counterparts.2

What role does this commitment play in Israel’s long history with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)? The primary aim of this article is to answer this question by charting Israel’s relationship with the NPT and its decades-long fear of American coercion to join it. A secondary aim of this article is to provide a concise primer, or introduction, to this nuanced question for scholars and students alike, by reviewing the existing literature and adding insights from new archival sources to this growing body of work.

The paper proceeds in three parts. The first charts the emergence of Israel’s NPT policy and the technical-diplomatic road which led to the emergence of the policy in the late 1960s and the early 1970s. The second charts how this policy impacted Israel’s nuclear energy policy in the following decades, ultimately preventing it from pursuing its plan of launching a massive civilian nuclear infrastructure program, specifically nuclear power plants for electricity production. The third concludes with charting Israel’s NPT policy at the end of the Cold War. Research for this study was conducted in archives in the US, United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel, and taps both primary and secondary sources; Hebrew translations are by the author, unless otherwise noted.3

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This chapter by Hesham Sallam examines how Sisi's regime has used state-sponsored youth empowerment initiatives to construct a new model of managed political participation in Egypt since 2014. Rather than relying on traditional tools of controlled contestation such as elections and parliamentary politics, the regime has built alternative, more easily controlled spaces to project an image of inclusive policymaking, epitomized by what the author terms the "New Youth Project." Situating this shift within a broader regional pattern of declining interest in conventional participatory façades since the Arab Uprisings, the chapter argues that Egypt's approach also reflects distinct local dynamics: militarizing civilian politics, sidelining established political elites, and cultivating an image of modernity and reform for international audiences.

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On May 28, 2026, the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program (JKISP) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law hosted a seminar with Yossi Melman, a longtime intelligence and security correspondent for Haaretz and author of ten books on Israel's intelligence community, including the New York Times bestseller Every Spy a Prince. Amichai Magen, Director of JKISP, introduced the talk, and Or Rabinowitz, Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies, led the conversation. Melman said Israel's 2026 war plan against Iran included an attempt to install former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a regime-change figurehead, an idea Mossad had cultivated for years through contacts made during his foreign travels. The plan collapsed when a strike meant only to kill Ahmadinejad's guards wounded him instead, a scheme Melman called "ludicrous," noting that Iranian intelligence already suspected Ahmadinejad of being compromised. He pointed to the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, on the war's first day as an example of the tactical side of Israeli intelligence working exactly as it should. Turning that kind of precision into a lasting strategic outcome is the part Israel keeps failing at, Melman said.

Asked to connect this pattern to October 7th, Melman discussed the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt staged repeated military drills along the border before its real invasion and trained Israeli intelligence to expect nothing. Melman said the same pattern held in Gaza. Female spotters had warned for weeks about unusual activity along the border, but their commanders told them to report only what they saw, not what they thought it meant, and Hamas had activated and deactivated emergency communications twice in the weeks before the attack, so that when the real signal came, Israeli analysts dismissed it as another drill. Mossad, Shin Bet, and military intelligence were still arguing over who was responsible for Gaza nearly two decades after Israel's 2005 withdrawal, and Melman said that confusion over jurisdiction was part of the failure as well. Asked whether Israel deliberately strengthened Hamas to weaken the Palestinian Authority, Melman said yes, since Hamas, unlike the Palestinian Authority, will never be negotiated with, which made it a useful tool for a government that wanted to keep the Palestinians divided. The biggest threat facing Israel right now, Melman said, is not Iran, Gaza, or Hezbollah, but rather the country's own internal polarization.

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Iran, Israel, and the Risk of Direct War

In a conversation with Or Rabinowitz, Sima Shine, Senior Researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and Rax Zimmt, Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at INSS, discussed escalation, regional actors, and regime change.
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Matthew Levitt on the Middle East After the Iran War: Tactical Wins, Strategic Limits

Matthew Levitt unpacks proxy warfare, shifting narratives, and the uneasy future of U.S.–Israel relations in a conversation hosted by the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program.
Matthew Levitt on the Middle East After the Iran War: Tactical Wins, Strategic Limits
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The veteran Haaretz intelligence correspondent argues that Israel's spy agencies keep winning the battle and losing the war, from a botched Iran regime-change plot to the warnings that went unheeded before October 7th.

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On May 26, 2026, the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program (JKISP) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law hosted a panel titled "Cross-Sectoral Mobilization in Defense of Democracy," part of a series on global democratic resistance organized in collaboration with the Ash Center for Democratic Governance at the Harvard Kennedy School; the Cornell Center on Global Democracy; Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania; the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame; the Democratic Futures Project at the University of Virginia; and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Amichai Magen, Director of JKISP, moderated alongside Ben Yoel, an incoming postdoctoral fellow at CDDRL for the 2026-27 academic year. They were joined by three founders of Israel's Protest Headquarters, the coordinating body behind the 2023 movement against the government's judicial overhaul: Yossi Kucik, former Director-General of Israel's Prime Minister's Office; Orni Petruschka, a former fighter pilot turned tech entrepreneur; and Advocate Dina Zilber, former Deputy Attorney General of Israel. Zilber said the crisis represented a shift “from policy conflict to regime conflict.” The government's plan would have let politicians pick judges and override Supreme Court rulings, among other changes, and Zilber said that went well beyond a normal reform. Kucik added that the Headquarters decided early on that its founders would act as enablers, not leaders. There were two hundred separate protest groups with their own methods and politics, he said, and no one person could have run all of them. The group adopted the Israeli flag and national anthem as symbols. They branded the government's plan a "judicial coup," and Kucik said they decided early on to stay nonviolent and to fight specific policies rather than try to topple the government outright.

Petruschka said funding came in approximately equal thirds from crowdfunding, Israeli philanthropists, and the Jewish diaspora. Zilber credited a volunteer network of 150 legal academics for writing up plain-language explanations of each proposed law as it came out, which provided “a nationwide civics lesson.” Petruschka said many protests around the world would benefit from the headquarters model. One concern for protest movements worldwide, according to Zilber, is the need to turn civic energy into political power, since voters choose parties, not protests. They also need a governing plan ready for the day after they win; Zilber pointed to Poland as a case where that did not occur. Kucik expressed concern that the Headquarters’s refraining from adopting an explicit goal to topple the government may have cost momentum. However, he noted the protests’ success; for example, an attempt to fire the defense minister over Haredi military conscription brought around a million people into the streets within minutes and pushed coalition partners towards near-defection, leading Netanyahu to draw back on his reforms. Petruschka said the movement's momentum was cut short by October 7th, redirected toward wartime relief, and has since folded into the campaign for Israel's coming elections.

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Iran, Israel, and the Risk of Direct War

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Matthew Levitt on the Middle East After the Iran War: Tactical Wins, Strategic Limits

Matthew Levitt unpacks proxy warfare, shifting narratives, and the uneasy future of U.S.–Israel relations in a conversation hosted by the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program.
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Three founders of the movement that halted Israel's 2023 judicial overhaul explain how they organized hundreds of thousands of protesters without a single leader.

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On May 21, 2026, the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program (JKISP) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law hosted Ambassador Daniel Shapiro for the latest installment of its Israel Insights webinar series. Ambassador Shapiro, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, joined Amichai Magen, Director of JKISP, and Or Rabinowitz, Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies. Ambassador Shapiro described the Trump administration as caught between three unappealing options on Iran's nuclear program: an ongoing stalemate over the closed Strait of Hormuz, military escalation that risks a global economic crisis, or a far weaker nuclear deal than Trump has demanded. He discussed similar issues of refusal to disarm obstructing negotiations in Lebanon, where Hezbollah's refusal to disarm blocks normalization despite new talks among ambassadors in Washington, and Gaza, where Hamas's refusal to disarm has stalled the transition to non-Hamas governance.

On U.S.-Israel relations, Ambassador Shapiro said Israel's standing in American public opinion is the lowest he recalls, primarily due to the toll of the Gaza war, but also due to the rightward drift of Netanyahu's coalition and Netanyahu's history of partisan relationships within U.S. politics. He outlined the difference between legitimate debate over the terms of U.S.-Israel security assistance and arguments that question Israel's existence as a state. Looking ahead to Israel's elections, expected between September and October, Ambassador Shapiro argued that rather than a pro- versus anti-Netanyahu split affecting the outcome, votes will be affected by public opinion on whether the government succeeded against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran; Israel's eroded international standing; and the ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service. Asked to close with his thoughts on Israeli-Saudi normalization, Ambassador Shapiro, drawing on his direct involvement in pre-October 7th talks and a return trip to Saudi Arabia in December, explained how the widening Saudi-UAE regional rift and the unresolved Iran war further complicate Riyadh's existing conditions for a deal.

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Iran, Israel, and the Risk of Direct War

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Matthew Levitt on the Middle East After the Iran War: Tactical Wins, Strategic Limits

Matthew Levitt unpacks proxy warfare, shifting narratives, and the uneasy future of U.S.–Israel relations in a conversation hosted by the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program.
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Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel argues that Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran all hinge on the same unresolved question, even as Israel's coming election turns on issues closer to home.

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Nicole is a B.A. candidate in International Relations in the Class of 2029. Her academic interests focus on the Middle East and North Africa, with particular interests in governance, social movements, and political change in the region. She studied Arabic in Morocco for a year through a scholarship program funded by the U.S. Department of State. In her free time, Nicole enjoys language learning and speaks Arabic, Greek, and Spanish.

Research Assistant to Professor Hesham Sallam, Summer 2026
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On April 16, 2026, the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program (JKISP) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law hosted political theorist Tomer Persico for the 20th installment of its Israel Insights webinar series. Persico, a Research Fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute and Senior Research Scholar at UC Berkeley's Center for Middle Eastern Studies, joined Amichai Magen, Director of JKISP,  and Or Rabinowitz, Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies, to trace liberalism's surprising roots in Zionism's founding — including the once-overlooked fact that Menachem Begin's Herut party, not the ruling socialist left, was Israel's most consistent liberal force in its early decades — through its 1990s peak and into its present crisis. Persico argued that liberalism's troubles stem not from failure but from success: having become "the only game in town" after the Soviet collapse, it lost the ideological competitors that once distracted from its core weakness, namely that liberalism is an arrangement rather than a story, and cannot tell people who they are or where they belong. That vacuum, he said, is now filled by populism on the right and identitarian politics on the left, and in Israel, by religious fundamentalism.

Pressed by Magen on whether liberalism can defend itself against illiberal threats — from autonomy's corrosion of community to AI's challenge to human-centered politics — Persico argued that liberalism must be paired with complementary sources of meaning, such as tradition, religion, and nationalism, rather than trying to supply its own story. Turning to Israel's coming elections, he criticized Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, calling them fundamentalists pursuing a theocratic "halachic state," and argued the Likud has shifted from a liberal to a populist party under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since 2015. He said the liberal camp must reclaim patriotism and Judaism itself from the religious right, rather than cede both. "We can have authentic, real Judaism as secular people, or as liberal religious people," he said, warning that failing to do so risks producing "a Jewish Iran."

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Alon Tal, a former member of the Knesset, discusses Israeli democracy and the upcoming elections with Amichai Magen, Director of the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program at CDDRL.
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Political theorist Tomer Persico traces the surprising liberal roots of the Israeli right, and argues that liberalism's current crisis stems from its success, not its failure.

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