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Riana Pfefferkorn
Riana Pfefferkorn
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When we’re faced with a video recording of an event—such as an incident of police brutality—we can generally trust that the event happened as shown in the video. But that may soon change, thanks to the advent of so-called “deepfake” videos that use machine learning technology to show a real person saying and doing things they haven’t.

This technology poses a particular threat to marginalized communities. If deepfakes cause society to move away from the current “seeing is believing” paradigm for video footage, that shift may negatively impact individuals whose stories society is already less likely to believe. The proliferation of video recording technology has fueled a reckoning with police violence in the United States, recorded by bystanders and body-cameras. But in a world of pervasive, compelling deepfakes, the burden of proof to verify authenticity of videos may shift onto the videographer, a development that would further undermine attempts to seek justice for police violence. To counter deepfakes, high-tech tools meant to increase trust in videos are in development, but these technologies, though well-intentioned, could end up being used to discredit already marginalized voices. 

(Content Note: Some of the links in this piece lead to graphic videos of incidents of police violence. Those links are denoted in bold.)

Recent police killings of Black Americans caught on camera have inspired massive protests that have filled U.S. streets in the past year. Those protests endured for months in Minneapolis, where former police officer Derek Chauvin was convicted this week in the murder of George Floyd, a Black man. During Chauvin’s trial, another police officer killed Daunte Wright just outside Minneapolis, prompting additional protests as well as the officer’s resignation and arrest on second-degree manslaughter charges. She supposedly mistook her gun for her Taser—the same mistake alleged in the fatal shooting of Oscar Grant in 2009, by an officer whom a jury later found guilty of involuntary manslaughter (but not guilty of a more serious charge). All three of these tragic deaths—George Floyd, Daunte Wright, Oscar Grant—were documented in videos that were later used (or, in Wright’s case, seem likely to be used) as evidence at the trials of the police officers responsible. Both Floyd’s and Wright’s deaths were captured by the respective officers’ body-worn cameras, and multiple bystanders with cell phones recorded the Floyd and Grant incidents. Some commentators credit a 17-year-old Black girl’s video recording of Floyd’s death for making Chauvin’s trial happen at all.

The growth of the movement for Black lives in the years since Grant’s death in 2009 owes much to the rise in the availability, quality, and virality of bystander videos documenting police violence, but this video evidence hasn’t always been enough to secure convictions. From Rodney King’s assailants in 1992 to Philando Castile’s shooter 25 years later, juries have often declined to convict police officers even in cases where wanton police violence or killings are documented on video. Despite their growing prevalence, police bodycams have had mixed results in deterring excessive force or impelling accountability. That said, bodycam videos do sometimes make a difference, helping to convict officers in the killings of Jordan Edwards in Texas and Laquan McDonald in Chicago. Chauvin’s defense team pitted bodycam footage against the bystander videos employed by the prosecution, and lost.

What makes video so powerful? Why does it spur crowds to take to the streets and lawyers to showcase it in trials? It’s because seeing is believing. Shot at differing angles from officers’ point of view, bystander footage paints a fuller picture of what happened. Two people (on a jury, say, or watching a viral video online) might interpret a video two different ways. But they’ve generally been able to take for granted that the footage is a true, accurate record of something that really happened. 

That might not be the case for much longer. It’s now possible to use artificial intelligence to generate highly realistic “deepfake” videos showing real people saying and doing things they never said or did, such as the recent viral TikTok videos depicting an ersatz Tom Cruise. You can also find realistic headshots of people who don’t exist at all on the creatively-named website thispersondoesnotexist.com. (There’s even a cat version.) 

While using deepfake technology to invent cats or impersonate movie stars might be cute, the technology has more sinister uses as well. In March, the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued a warning that malicious actors are “almost certain” to use “synthetic content” in disinformation campaigns against the American public and in criminal schemes to defraud U.S. businesses. The breakneck pace of deepfake technology’s development has prompted concerns that techniques for detecting such imagery will be unable to keep up. If so, the high-tech cat-and-mouse game between creators and debunkers might end in a stalemate at best. 

If it becomes impossible to reliably prove that a fake video isn’t real, a more feasible alternative might be to focus instead on proving that a real video isn’t fake. So-called “verified at capture” or “controlled-capture” technologies attach additional metadata to imagery at the moment it’s taken, to verify when and where the footage was recorded and reveal any attempt to tamper with the data. The goal of these technologies, which are still in their infancy, is to ensure that an image’s integrity will stand up to scrutiny. 

Photo and video verification technology holds promise for confirming what’s real in the age of “fake news.” But it’s also cause for concern. In a society where guilty verdicts for police officers remain elusive despite ample video evidence, is even more technology the answer? Or will it simply reinforce existing inequities? 

The “ambitious goal” of adding verification technology to smartphone chipsets necessarily entails increasing the cost of production. Once such phones start to come onto the market, they will be more expensive than lower-end devices that lack this functionality. And not everyone will be able to afford them. Black Americans and poor Americans have lower rates of smartphone ownership than whites and high earners, and are more likely to own a “dumb” cell phone. (The same pattern holds true with regard to educational attainment and urban versus rural residence.) Unless and until verification technology is baked into even the most affordable phones, it risks replicating existing disparities in digital access. 

That has implications for police accountability, and, by extension, for Black lives. Primed by societal concerns about deepfakes and “fake news,” juries may start expecting high-tech proof that a video is real. That might lead them to doubt the veracity of bystander videos of police brutality if they were captured on lower-end phones that lack verification technology. Extrapolating from current trends in phone ownership, such bystanders are more likely to be members of marginalized racial and socioeconomic groups. Those are the very people who, as witnesses in court, face an uphill battle in being afforded credibility by juries. That bias, which reared its ugly head again in the Chauvin trial, has long outlived the 19th-century rules that explicitly barred Black (and other non-white) people from testifying for or against white people on the grounds that their race rendered them inherently unreliable witnesses. 

In short, skepticism of “unverified” phone videos may compound existing prejudices against the owners of those phones. That may matter less in situations where a diverse group of numerous eyewitnesses record a police brutality incident on a range of devices. But if there is only a single bystander witness to the scene, the kind of phone they own could prove significant.

The advent of mobile devices empowered Black Americans to force a national reckoning with police brutality. Ubiquitous, pocket-sized video recorders allow average bystanders to document the pandemic of police violence. And because seeing is believing, those videos make it harder for others to continue denying the problem exists. Even with the evidence thrust under their noses, juries keep acquitting police officers who kill Black people. Chauvin’s conviction this week represents an exception to recent history: Between 2005 and 2019, of the 104 law enforcement officers charged with murder or manslaughter in connection with a shooting while on duty, 35 were convicted

The fight against fake videos will complicate the fight for Black lives. Unless it is equally available to everyone, video verification technology may not help the movement for police accountability, and could even set it back. Technological guarantees of videos’ trustworthiness will make little difference if they are accessible only to the privileged, whose stories society already tends to believe. We might be able to tech our way out of the deepfakes threat, but we can’t tech our way out of America’s systemic racism. 

Riana Pfefferkorn is a research scholar at the Stanford Internet Observatory

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Riana Pfefferkorn
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Q&A with Riana Pfefferkorn, Stanford Internet Observatory Research Scholar

Riana Pfefferkorn joined the Stanford Internet Observatory as a research scholar in December. She comes from Stanford’s Center for Internet and Society, where she was the Associate Director of Surveillance and Cybersecurity.
Q&A with Riana Pfefferkorn, Stanford Internet Observatory Research Scholar
A member of the All India Student Federation teaches farmers about social media and how to use such tools as part of ongoing protests against the government. (Pradeep Gaur / SOPA Images / Sipa via Reuters Connect)
Blogs

New Intermediary Rules Jeopardize the Security of Indian Internet Users

New Intermediary Rules Jeopardize the Security of Indian Internet Users
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End-to-end encrypted (E2EE) communications have been around for decades, but the deployment of default E2EE on billion-user platforms has new impacts for user privacy and safety. The deployment comes with benefits to both individuals and society but it also creates new risks, as long-existing models of messenger abuse can now flourish in an environment where automated or human review cannot reach. New E2EE products raise the prospect of less understood risks by adding discoverability to encrypted platforms, allowing contact from strangers and increasing the risk of certain types of abuse. This workshop will place a particular focus on platform benefits and risks that impact civil society organizations, with a specific focus on the global south. Through a series of workshops and policy papers, the Stanford Internet Observatory is facilitating open and productive dialogue on this contentious topic to find common ground. 

An important defining principle behind this workshop series is the explicit assumption that E2EE is here to stay. To that end, our workshops have set aside any discussion of exceptional access (aka backdoor) designs. This debate has raged between industry, academic cryptographers and law enforcement for decades and little progress has been made. We focus instead on interventions that can be used to reduce the harm of E2E encrypted communication products that have been less widely explored or implemented. 

Submissions for working papers and requests to attend will be accepted up to 10 days before the event. Accepted submitters will be invited to present or attend our upcoming workshops. 

SUBMIT HERE

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Please note: the start time for this event has been moved from 3:00 to 3:15pm.

Join FSI Director Michael McFaul in conversation with Richard Stengel, Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs. They will address the role of entrepreneurship in creating stable, prosperous societies around the world.

Richard Stengel Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Special Guest United States Department of State

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies, Department of Political Science
Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
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Michael McFaul is Director at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies in the Department of Political Science, and the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He joined the Stanford faculty in 1995. Dr. McFaul also is as an International Affairs Analyst for NBC News and a columnist for The Washington Post. He served for five years in the Obama administration, first as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council at the White House (2009-2012), and then as U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation (2012-2014).

He has authored several books, most recently the New York Times bestseller From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia. Earlier books include Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We Should, How We Can; Transitions To Democracy: A Comparative Perspective (eds. with Kathryn Stoner); Power and Purpose: American Policy toward Russia after the Cold War (with James Goldgeier); and Russia’s Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin. He is currently writing a book called Autocrats versus Democrats: Lessons from the Cold War for Competing with China and Russia Today.

He teaches courses on great power relations, democratization, comparative foreign policy decision-making, and revolutions.

Dr. McFaul was born and raised in Montana. He received his B.A. in International Relations and Slavic Languages and his M.A. in Soviet and East European Studies from Stanford University in 1986. As a Rhodes Scholar, he completed his D. Phil. In International Relations at Oxford University in 1991. His DPhil thesis was Southern African Liberation and Great Power Intervention: Towards a Theory of Revolution in an International Context.

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Steve Fyffe
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Three CISAC scientists have joined 26 of the nation’s top nuclear experts to send an open letter to President Obama in support of the Iran deal struck in July.

“The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the United States and its partners negotiated with Iran will advance the cause of peace and security in the Middle East and can serve as a guidepost for future non-proliferation agreements,” the group of renowned scientists, academics and former government officials wrote in the letter dated August 8, 2015.

“This is an innovative agreement, with much more stringent constraints than any previously negotiated non-proliferation framework.”

CISAC senior fellow and former Los Alamos National Laboratory director Sig Hecker is a signatory to the letter, along with CISAC co-founder Sid Drell, and cybersecurity expert and CISAC affiliate Martin Hellman.

Six Nobel laureates also signed, including FSI senior fellow by courtesy and former Stanford Linear Accelerator director Burton Richter.

The letter arrives at a crucial time for the Obama administration as it rallies public opinion and lobbies Congress to support the Iran agreement.

You can read the full letter along with analysis from the New York Times at this link.

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This article examines how the evolution of ideational conflicts between Islamist and leftist intellectual advocates over the past four decades has shaped the dominant discourse and narrative through which leftists have sought to justify the repression of Islamist currents in the aftermath of the 2013 coup. Since the mid-1970s, debates and conflicts between Islamist and leftist intellectuals and activists have generated a variety of historical narratives and a repertoire of language that endorsed the political exclusion of ideological rivals. The 1970s and 1980s saw the advent of an Islamist ‘authenticity critique’ of the left. That critique argued that leftist movements do not enjoy an organic connection with Egyptian society, presenting them as foreign implants with questionable national loyalties. The political victories of the Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1980s and Islamist attacks against secular intellectuals in the 1990s, paved the way for a leftist counter-critique of Islamists, one that continues to shape leftist discourse in the contemporary moment. Adopting a strong nationalist veneer, the counter-critique held that it was the Islamist movement that lacked authentic roots in Egyptian society, while arguing that Islamists’ loyalties lie not with Egypt, but with international networks of Islamist groups and governments. By historicising the discursive and narrative battles between Islamist and leftist currents, the article contributes to our understanding of the intellectual origins of ‘affective polarization’ in post-2013 Egypt, shedding light on why it has taken on an exclusionary and violent turn.

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The Journal of North African Studies
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Hesham Sallam
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Stanford Continuing Studies
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For decades, we tended to think about the Middle East as a region of the world perpetually trailing behind the arc of history — unable to arrive at democracy, economic interdependence, cooperative regionalism, and peace. But what if the Middle East is not a laggard, but a laboratory for 21st-century geopolitics? What if we approach the Middle East through a different lens, as an arena where global and regional powers (United States, Russia, China, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Turkey, etc.) compete to shape a new political order, offering us invaluable insights into the possible futures of global politics?

Geopolitics in the 21st-Century Middle East will explore the actors, trends, and dynamics that created the modern Middle East and shape it today and provide possible scenarios for the future. Featuring experts from across Stanford and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, as well as experts from other institutions, the course starts with a historical overview of the formation of the modern Middle East. It will also analyze the role of states, authoritarianism, and violent non-state actors in the region. The course will then examine how various countries — Egypt, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Turkey, for example — approach the deep transformations taking place in the Middle East. Toward the end of the course, students will consider scenarios for the future, including how the Middle East intersects with broader changes in the international system. Finally, the course will discuss prospects for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and evaluate whether the current tumult in the Middle East could create unexpected opportunities for broader regional peace.

Guest lecturers include Ali Yaycıoğlu (Director, Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Stanford), Lisa Blaydes (Professor in Political Science and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Amichai Magen (Visiting Professor and Fellow in Israel Studies, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Hanin Ghaddar (Senior Fellow, Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, Washington Institute), Cole Bunzel (Hoover Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford), Hesham Sallam (Senior Research Scholar, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Ayça Alemdaroğlu (Associate Director, Program on Turkey, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford), Abbas Milani (Director, Hamid and Christina Moghadam Program in Iranian Studies, Stanford), Benjamin Miller (Professor of International Relations, University of Haifa), and Ghaith al-Omari (Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation Senior Fellow, Washington Institute).

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Bassam Haddad
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Syria in Transition: Historical Origins and Prospects

In a conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam, Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University, addressed the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership.
Syria in Transition: Historical Origins and Prospects
Eugene Kandel presents via Zoom in a webinar hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Program.
News

Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks

Kandel's talk with Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen focused on his work at the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI) in diagnosing what he and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.
Eugene Kandel on Tackling Israel’s Internal Existential Risks
Ali Çarkoğlu
News

Polarization, Cleavages, and Democratic Backsliding: Electoral Dynamics in Turkey (1990-2023)

Using data from the World Values Survey and Turkish Election Studies, CDDRL Visiting Scholar Ali Çarkoğlu explores the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the enduring influence of cultural divides on Turkey’s political landscape.
Polarization, Cleavages, and Democratic Backsliding: Electoral Dynamics in Turkey (1990-2023)
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Open for enrollment now through Stanford Continuing Studies, "Geopolitics in the 21st-Century Middle East: Insights from Stanford Scholars and Other Experts" will run online for ten weeks on Wednesdays, from April 2 through June 4.

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Khushmita Dhabhai
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On January 31, 2025, the Program on Arab Reform and Development (ARD) at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a webinar examining the future of Syria following the December 2024 collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. The event featured Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University. Haddad spoke in conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam. The discussion focused on the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Haddad emphasized that while many Syrians welcomed the end of Assad’s decades-long rule, the transition has raised serious concerns about the country’s future. Over time, Assad’s regime had become weakened by corruption, economic decline, and an inability to provide basic services. By late 2024, Syria’s military was fragmented, demoralized, and lacked external support. When HTS forces advanced into Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus, the Syrian Army largely dissolved without significant resistance.

A key factor in Assad’s downfall was the unexpected inaction of his traditional allies. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah — longtime backers of the regime — did not intervene. Iran, facing domestic unrest and wary of escalating tensions with Israel and the U.S., chose to stay out. Hezbollah, weakened by clashes with Israel, lacked the resources to help. Russia, preoccupied elsewhere, had seemingly accepted Assad’s fate. The lack of resistance suggests that the transfer of power may have been prearranged rather than a purely military victory.

The most immediate turning point came when Israel launched airstrikes that destroyed over 80% of Syria’s remaining military infrastructure. Notably, neither HTS nor other international actors responded to these strikes, fueling speculation about behind-the-scenes agreements between Turkey, Qatar, and Western powers.

With Assad gone, Ahmad Al-Shara, the leader of HTS, was declared Syria’s new president. However, Haddad noted that this transition was neither democratic nor transparent. Al-Shara, who was previously affiliated with Jabhat Al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch), has rebranded himself as a moderate leader, promising inclusion and reform. However, Haddad pointed to major contradictions between his words and actions. The Syrian Army and security services have been dissolved, leading to concerns over instability. Government positions have been filled by HTS loyalists, excluding secular and nationalist opposition. Additionally, the new military structure requires recruits to undergo Sharia law training, raising fears about the ideological direction of the new government.

Syria’s transition is also deeply shaped by regional and international power struggles. Haddad stressed that HTS could not have taken power without Turkey’s approval. Turkey, focused on containing Kurdish forces in northern Syria, has played a key role in shaping post-Assad politics. Meanwhile, the U.S. recently announced its military withdrawal from Syria, leaving Kurdish forces vulnerable to both HTS control and Turkish expansion. Qatar and other Gulf states are increasingly involved in shaping Syria’s economy and political trajectory.

Looking ahead, Haddad identified five critical challenges that will determine Syria’s future:

  1. Sovereignty and territorial integrity – Can Syria reclaim full control of its territory, or will it remain influenced by foreign actors?
  2. Inclusion and transparency – Will the new government allow for democratic participation, or will HTS consolidate power?
  3. Economic recovery – Sanctions and economic devastation pose serious obstacles to stability.
  4. Rule of law and governance – No clear roadmap exists for elections, legal institutions, or constitutional reforms.
  5. Rebuilding and refugee return – Over five million Syrian refugees remain abroad, with no structured plan for their safe return.


While Assad’s downfall marks a historic moment, Syria’s future remains uncertain and fragile. Many Syrians who once celebrated the regime’s collapse now fear that HTS’s dominance will not bring real change. The gap between promised reforms and actual governance policies has fueled skepticism.

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Samer Abboud Examines the Politics of Exclusion in Syria [VIDEO]

Samer Abboud Examines the Politics of Exclusion in Syria [VIDEO]
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Voices from Syria Narrate Stories of Revolution and Conflict

Voices from Syria Narrate Stories of Revolution and Conflict
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Commentary

Bassam Haddad Analyzes the Root Causes and Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising [VIDEO]

Bassam Haddad Analyzes the Root Causes and Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising [VIDEO]
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In a conversation with ARD Associate Director Hesham Sallam, Bassam Haddad, a leading expert on Syria and Associate Professor at George Mason University, addressed the factors that led to Assad’s fall, the role of international actors, and the uncertain prospects of Syria under its new leadership.

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Roberta Gatti ARD event

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies are not catching up with the rest of the world. The region’s average per capita income has increased by just 62 percent over the last 50 years. In comparison, over the same period, the increase was fourfold in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and twofold in advanced ones. Only a few developing MENA economies have avoided diverging further from the richest countries’ living standards (what economists call the frontier), and those where conflicts erupted have accelerated in the wrong direction. In this presentation, Roberta Gatti will discuss the factors that shape MENA’s long-term growth potential, with special attention to the role of the state in the economy, the persistent effects of conflict, and the boost that closing the gender gap in the labor force can deliver in terms of growth.

This event is co-sponsored by the Program on Arab Reform and Development and the Program on Capitalism and Democracy, as well as the Middle Eastern Studies Forum.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Roberta Gatti is the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank, where she oversees the analytical agenda of the region and the publication of the semi-annual MENA Economic Updates. She is the founder of the MENA Central Banks Regional Research Network. In her prior capacity as Chief Economist for the Human Development Practice Group, Roberta co-led the conceptualization and launch of the World Bank Human Capital Index and the scale up of the Service Delivery Indicators data initiative.

Roberta joined the World Bank as a Young Professional in the Macro unit of the Development Research Group, and she has since led and overseen both operational and analytical work in her roles of Manager and of Global Lead for Labor Policies.

Roberta’s research, spanning a broad set of topics such as growth, firm productivity, the economics of corruption, gender equity, and labor markets, has been published in lead field journals such as the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Economic Growth, and the Journal of Development Economics. She is also the lead author of a number of flagship reports, including Jobs for Shared Prosperity: Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa; Striving for Better Jobs: The Challenge of Informality in Middle East and North Africa; The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19; and Service Delivery in Education and Health across Africa.

Roberta has taught courses at the undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. Level at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities. She is a frequent lecturer on development economics, most recently at Dartmouth College, Princeton University, and Cornell University. Roberta holds a B.A. from Università Bocconi and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

In-person: Encina Hall E008, Garden-level East (616 Jane Stanford Way Stanford)

Online: Via Zoom

Roberta Gatti
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Aleeza Schoenberg
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As part of its 2025 Winter Webinar Series, the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a webinar featuring Eugene Kandel in conversation with Amichai Magen. Kandel, the former head of Israel’s National Economic Council and a professor of economics and finance at Hebrew University, is the co-founder of the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI). The talk focused on Kandel’s work at ISFI in diagnosing what Kandel and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel, and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.

Kandel began his analysis by pointing out the fact that the post-Cold War era has been one of spectacular economic success for Israel. The country entered 2022 with a budget surplus, record employment, and low public debt. But this, Kandel believes, is an increasingly precarious, indeed unsustainable reality. Describing a deep demographic shift towards the Haredi (ultraorthodox) and religious-nationalist population, as well as growing structural weaknesses in Israel’s economy and government, Kandel warned that Israel could face a "run on the country" if it did not provide the most productive parts of its population with guarantees that their values would be protected.

Kandel outlined the three incompatible ideological groupings found in Israeli society. One group believes in Jewish liberal democracy, one is primarily Hasidic and believes in the Torah’s centrality, and one desires a non-Jewish country for all citizens. Disproportionate population growth in the Hasidic group puts liberal democracy at risk, while Hasidic citizens rely heavily on social services, which will soon be unsustainable.

Drawing on examples in Northern Ireland, Switzerland, and Belgium, Kandel proposes a professional, easily replaceable, non-political government. Every Israeli citizen would be a member of one of three "Alumot"—a word meaning clusters—each with their own constitutions, taxes, social services, and elections. Changes in government would require consensus from all three Alumot. Since citizens would choose their Alumot freely and could even switch between them, the Alumot serving members would be motivated to improve citizens’ lives and economic conditions.

Magen countered that Kandel's proposals wrongly gave up on a shared Israeliness that - with all its difficulties - has proven highly successful in the past seven and a half decacdes, and that the Alumot idea is politically impractical. Kandel and Magen discussed how the current issues with Israeli society, namely its division, are the same limiting factor in adapting a new political system. They also discussed how Jews outside Israel can help the Israeli government thrive, and how Israel needs to address its internal conflicts if it has a realistic prospect of successfully managing its external challenges.

A full recording of the conversation can be viewed below.

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Ari Shavit
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Ari Shavit on Israel's Existential War

Shavit, in conversation with FSI Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen, discussed the threats Israel faces — particularly from Iran and its proxies — while reassessing historical defense doctrines and the evolving regional landscape, including the future of Gaza.
Ari Shavit on Israel's Existential War
Sheryl Sandberg answers audience questions with Rabbi Idit Solomon, Interim Associate Director of Hillel at Stanford, following a screening of her documentary film, "Screams Before Silence," on November 19.
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Sheryl Sandberg Screens & Discusses Documentary on Oct. 7 Sexual Violence

Sheryl Sandberg said that filming a documentary about the sexual brutality of Hamas’ attacks on Israelis on Oct. 7 was the most important work of her life and that she wants to turn the world’s attention to the inhumanity that took place.
Sheryl Sandberg Screens & Discusses Documentary on Oct. 7 Sexual Violence
Tzipi Livni speaks at a lunch time event with Stanford faculty and students.
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FSI's Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Reflects on What Lies Ahead for Israel and the Middle East

The October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas has already indelibly altered Israel and the Middle East, and will continue to reverberate for decades to come, says Amichai Magen, a fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
FSI's Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Reflects on What Lies Ahead for Israel and the Middle East
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Kandel's talk with Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen focused on his work at the Israel Strategic Futures Institute (ISFI) in diagnosing what he and his colleagues identify as internal existential risks for Israel and the policy ideas generated by ISFI in response to those risks.

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Aleeza Schoenberg
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As part of its 2025 Winter Webinar Series, the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a webinar featuring Ari Shavit in conversation with Amichai Magen. One of Israel's most seasoned and informed journalists and political analysts, Shavit is also the author of the New York Times bestseller My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel (2013). In the aftermath of the October 7th Hamas attack, Shavit was one of the first to grapple with the strategic causes and consequences of the attack and subsequent war, publishing a short book on the subject in the spring of 2024, titled Existential War: From Catastrophe, to Victory, to Revival (2024) [Hebrew]. 

Taking Existential War as the starting point for their conversation, Magen and Shavit discussed how a combination of Israeli complacency, miscalculations vis-a-vis Hamas, internal divisions, and overreliance on defensive technologies allowed the October 7th attacks to occur. They discussed Ze’ev Jabotinsky’s 1923 essay, The Iron Wall, and David Ben-Gurion's national defense strategy as a means of understanding the contemporary struggle between Iran and its proxies, on the one hand, and Israel and its allies, on the other hand. Shavit outlined Israel’s past successes and the need to update Jabotinsky’s and Ben-Gurion's strategic doctrines for 21st-century realities. For Shavit, Iran poses the greatest threat to stability and safety in the Middle East and the West. Magen and Shavit also discussed the future of Gaza and Syria, the roles that Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia play in the region, and the risk that the weakening of the Iran-led Shi'a axis could be replaced by a Syria-centered radical Sunni axis in the Middle East. Against this background, it is imperative that the United States work closely with Israel and pragmatic Sunni Arab countries in the region — most importantly, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE — to shape a new regional framework for the Middle East.

A full recording of the conversation can be viewed below.

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Shavit, in conversation with FSI Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Amichai Magen, discussed the threats Israel faces — particularly from Iran and its proxies — while reassessing historical defense doctrines and the evolving regional landscape, including the future of Gaza.

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