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The lecture will be organized around 4 questions: The French vote of May 29, volatile or structural? French European policy after May 29, which orientations, and which influence in Europe? Which effects on the EU and its trajectory? Has the NON been "worth it"?

Encina Hall, East Wing, Ground Floor, E008

Christian Deubner Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales CEPII
Seminars
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Following the recent elections in Germany, Heinz Bude will explain the election results and discuss the current political climate in Germany in terms of the larger historical and global perspective.

The End of '68:

One could call it a return of the vanished. After German society determined that the Federal Republic had only become a western, liberal country as a result of the Uprising of 1968, debates continue on how to view this place of remembrance of the post-war period. This is due to a surprising actualization and sobering historization of the Uprising at an exhibition at the Berliner Kunstwerke. Here, the attractiveness of 1968 is directly linked to the RAF. Not the disparateness but the unity of protest and terror represents the lure of the matter. This re-labeling of 68 as a form of "radical chic" finds its confirmation in more recent historical research that proves that no firewall exists between 68 and the RAF. The terror of the RAF did not represent an inversion of the protest of 68, but was constitutive for the entire movement. There is no innocence, no learning, only the successful disappearance of a bout of tragic political passions.

Then what was 1968? What must dismay us in retrospect, and what has taken roots in the cultural superstructure? Perhaps the unfinished debate between Jürgen Habermas and Karl Heinz Bohrer must be resumed: What about 1968 was universalistic emancipation and what was extremist surrealism?

Encina Hall
East Wing
Ground Floor E008

Heinz Bude Professor of Sociology Speaker University of Kassel
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Two of the 10 Stanford University undergraduates who completed CISAC's Interschool Honors Program in International Security Studies this year earned awards for their theses.

Sheena Elise Chestnut, a political science major, received a Firestone Medal for her thesis, "The 'Sopranos State'? North Korean Involvement in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security." The Firestone Medal recognizes the top 10 percent of Stanford University's undergraduate honors theses.

Jessica McLaughlin, a management science and engineering major, received the William J. Perry Award for her thesis, "A Bayesian Updating Model for Intelligence Analysis: A Case Study of Iraq's Nuclear Weapons Program." The Perry Award recognizes excellence in policy-relevant research in international security studies.

In a June graduation ceremony outside Stanford University's Encina Hall, CISAC faculty member Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, CISAC Postdoctoral Fellow Tonya L. Putnam, and CISAC Co-Director Scott D. Sagan presented students with certificates and thesis awards.

At a CISAC Directors' Seminar on June 1, Chestnut and McLaughlin presented their award-winning theses to an audience of 50 fellow students, faculty members and guests. Chestnut also gave a special seminar at CISAC in May, hosted by APARC and the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC.

The names, majors and thesis titles of eight others who completed the CISAC honors program are

Zack Cooper, public policy, Roman and British Experiences with Maritime Piracy and Implications for Combating Terrorism Today

Nina Hsu, political science, Chinese Assistance in the Pakistani Nuclear Program

Sohan Japa, biomechanical engineering, A Path to Peril: Understanding the Technical Hurdles of Biological Weapon Production

Bradley Larson, political science, Soft Power: US Foreign Aid Post-9/11

Frances Lewis, international relations, The Yellow Light Reactor: An Explanation of the Stop and Go Progress at Bushehr

Victor Marsh II, international relations, A Responsibility to Consult? Local Policy Ownership During Transitional Governance

Christopher Williams, physics, Closing the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: A Component Based Analysis of Options for Spent Fuel Management"

Ming Zhu, international relations, Power and Cooperation: Understanding the Road Towards a Truth Commission

Begun in 2000 to help develop the next generation of security specialists, CISAC's honors hrogram accepts 12 to 14 Stanford undergraduates each year, from any disciplines. Those selected attend a two-week CISAC honors college in Washington, D.C., complete an internship with a security-related organization, attend a year-long core seminar on international security research and produce an honors thesis with policy implications for international security. After fulfilling their individual department course requirements and completing the honors program, participants graduate in their major with an honors certificate in international security studies.

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Dr. Kwon will examine the electoral effects of issue salience of unemployment. While increasing employment volatility has spawned exciting research, evidence of how unemployment affects voter choice is inconclusive. Professor Kwon refines partisan voting theory by focusing on issue salience of unemployment and the dynamics of voter choice. Voters are more likely to make a transition to support Left parties when they identify unemployment as the most important and salient issue, while there is no effect of issue salience of unemployment on loyal Left voter behavior. His study also examines voter heterogeneity in the link between issue salience and the probability of transition to Left. Analysis of a transition model using the 1997 Korean presidential election survey finds supporting evidence.

Hyeok Yong Kwon (Ph.D., Cornell University) is an assistant professor in political science at Korea University. Before joining Korea University, he taught at Texas A&M University. His research interests include political economy, voting behavior and mass public opinion, and political methodology. His recent works explore economic insecurity and the dynamics of voter choice in comparative perspective. Also, he works on the relationship between government partisanship and welfare spending in OECD countries. Previous publications include "Targeting Public Spending in a New Democracy: Evidence from South Korea" British Journal of Political Science (2005) and "Economic Reform and Democratization: Evidence from Latin America and Post-Socialist Countries" British Journal of Political Science (2004).

Philippines Conference Room

Hyeok Yong Kwon Speaker Texas A & M University
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The pace of policy reform is important in new democracies, where the status quo policies, established by non-democratic regimes, may be far from the preferences of popular majorities. Slowing policy reform slows down governmental implementation of democratic policy mandates. This, in turn, may offset (at least partly) the positive effects of broader participation and greater accountability.

Whether the net impact of procedural reform is to accelerate or to slow policy reform depends on the particular procedures involved, and the political context. In this paper, the authors consider a procedure that, on the surface, appears likely to accelerate reform, thereby promoting change in the policy status quo. This is a sunset rule.

This paper focuses on the sunset rule adopted in South Korea, at the end of the Kim Young Sam administration. Kim's support for the sunset rule at the end of his term is puzzling. Why would a lame duck president support a rule that would seem to limit the life of the regulations passed in his own term?

Jeeyang Rhee Baum, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. She earned her Ph.D. in political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. Her research interests include comparative political institutions, administrative law, and bureaucracies with a particular emphasis on East Asia. Her most recent publications include: "Presidents Have Problems Too: The Logic of Intra-branch Delegation in East Asian Democracies", British Journal of Political Science (forthcoming) and "Breaking Authoritarian Bonds: The Political Origins of the Taiwan Administrative Procedure Act", Journal of East Asian Studies.

Philippines Conference Room

Jeeyang Baum Assistant Professor Speaker University of California, San Diego
Seminars

Since 1976 the Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE) has supported efforts to internationalize elementary and secondary school curricula by linking the research and teaching at Stanford University to the schools through the production of high-quality curriculum materials on international and cross-cultural topics.

The Europe Center (formerly called the Forum on Contemporary Europe) was founded in 1997 to expand interaction with scholars from Europe within the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. The Center initiates and promotes research and teaching at Stanford relating to Europe and encourages faculty and students to study the role of Europe in broader economic, political and social relationships.

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